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Question: Oct. 5 Closing Price:
$0 - 5 (3.5%)
<$8,000 - 38 (27%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 16 (11.3%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 10 (7.1%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 13 (9.2%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 12 (8.5%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 10 (7.1%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 5 (3.5%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 2 (1.4%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 4 (2.8%)
>$12,000 - 17 (12.1%)
>$20,000 - 9 (6.4%)
Total Voters: 141

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21400707 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (107 posts by 21 users deleted.)
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May 21, 2019, 01:46:49 AM


Oh yeah, but...bbut... can they stuff databases into tiny boxes too?? Sheesh, right, let's see 'em do that shit. I dare 'em. Yeah. Now that would be somethin'.

/tinysarcasm
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May 21, 2019, 02:15:44 AM

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The next wave isn't your grandma. It's institutions and pension funds.
The wave after that also isn't your grandma. It's central banks and governments.
I don't think old people will ever enter Bitcoin en masse.
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1130298125388832768

So is.

Highlighted stupid part is stupid. Jimmy Song and everyone he knows will be "old people" by the time the second wave comes. "Old people" of the future will be buying Bitcoin like the old people of today buy PMs.







-------



the evening wall report

Bitcoin continues to trade near $8k on declining volume. Sideways consolidation mixed with periods of volatility is my guess as support and resistance ranges are tested at $7.9k.

#dyor
1h


4h


D

#stronghands'19


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May 21, 2019, 03:13:52 AM

1h snapshot


Possible local bottom detected..Tuesday might not be completely horrible after all.  We might even bounce off of the 50ma again.

#dyor

#stronghands
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May 21, 2019, 03:54:40 AM

@JJG  keep writing long post bro, no matter what other thinks of it (which I know you don't bother). some of us find your posts valuable because you are always kind enough to share your experience. good or bad its another discussion.






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May 21, 2019, 04:07:21 AM

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Quote
After the pullback on Thursday night, the bears are at it again. Yes the same "experts" that have been calling for a huge pullback since, let me check 4k, are ignoring the structure and proportion of this rally which is clearly bullish . Unfortunately many have missed out on the rally or simply flip their calls depending on the direction of the wind. One simple pullback and they are making up patterns or simply covering their tracks with IF statements and no clear calls one way or the other. I consider this weather forecasting not Technical Analysis .

I'll be straight forward here: BUY THE DIP!

Let me make a prelude. This article is for investors and position traders, not swing or daytrading. Different strategies with different intents.

Bitcoin continues to simply grind higher and quite frankly the run is likely not over yet. The current pullback or wave (4) of the bullish swing, is proportional to wave (2). In my opinion this is likely the lower end of the consolidation we are seeing currently. Can we go lower? Sure, but broader bullish momentum is picking up, not slowing down. In addition the selloff Thursday night, or Friday morning, depending on where you are, was absorbed quickly. Across social media, complaints about not being able to sign in and buy the dip.

Pessimists Abound

There are also way to many pessimists and bears around still calling for lower levels or capitulation to new lows. Don't kid yourself, few if any of these guys have bought during the low, or already sold their load of coins. Remember the calls for "LOCK IN PROFITS" at 4000-4500 and 5k? Way to early, and we actually added at 5150, though we trimmed half of that position off at 6300. We figured it was an area that we could at least buy back if it did move higher. Well maybe I was wrong, but we are still holding a position from 3550 and half of one from 5150 and freed up some capital on Thursday to buy the dip. Regardless we got the bulk of this move, and are ready to add.

In my opinion anything under 7k is a buying area now. Just looking at the structure of the chart, momentum is picking up not slowing down. We also have a three wave fractal cycle that appears to be structurally and proportionally correct forming a mid term wave (3). With wave (4) proportional to wave (2) we can look at wave (5) being proportional to wave (1) and this puts us at around 9k. Now this is just a preliminary target and more of a guide of where we want to look for a top. This would complete wave "1" in the broader cycle, on our path to 24k.

One thing I can tell you is that attempting to short a market where buying momentum is picking up, in the face of pessimists is a risky endeavor. In addition shorting here is extremely dangerous as wave (2) was drawn out, and wave (4)'s are generally the opposite of wave 2's so this could be quick and simple. A drop and pop, sucking in shorts, and stopping them out.

Ignoring a Fundamental Change:

Many are so stuck in their own bias they are ignoring the fundamental change to this market and are actually part of the sentiment driving the market. Just look at the top articles on TV and on social outlets. Calls for 4500 have turned to 5500 which implies even the most bearish of the bears are raising their targets. Sure there is still that guy clinging onto a capitulation into the abyss, but overall bears are raising support levels. Something to consider as it pertains to market sentiment.

I still can't believe many are ignoring the liquidity and access trading platforms like TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, Motif Investing and Fidelity will bring to the market. You think Coinbase is adding crap coins at a record pace after years of only wanting the premium coins? It is because the fundamentals of the market are about to change and most of these exchanges are going to go belly up. Coinbase is attempting to position ahead of the change.

This is simple fruition and the only thing many of these crappy exchanges can cling to is crap coins. No moving average, oscillator or other indicator is going to give you a heads up on this fundamental change. These markets provide access to 10's of millions of traders with Trillions of dollars in assets.

However price action is clearly showing us this is happening. All these market gurus are selling their inventory to someone, and do you think that someone is the retail investor? You know the guy yelling SELL at every technical level only to see the market get away? Or those calling for H&S patterns, diverging bats and butterfly dreams, that are meaningless in these market conditions? Or those that just forecast the weather and never have the gonads to make an actual call.

Here is a call:

Buy the dip and put it away, the path is clear for 24k. Ok I have been watching Gotham episodes on Netflix . Favorite character so far, the penguin! I digress.

Can 4500 happen:

Sure it can, we are not naive to make a statement that it is impossible. We never thought we would see 3200. We did, but we had a plan and 5 months later we are back to and above where we were and profited from this. The difference is we can hold and add into an improbable move when we are wrong. We took advantage of the improbable, and now are sitting in a descent position. Of course we always think, boy I wish I would have added more, but hey I wish I bought Amazon at $5 in 2002 too and played 6-2 off-suit with 3 all ins the other night in the tournament only to see 662 hit the board.

Those levels are likely gone, so we look at moving forward.

Do you want to continue to watch Bitcoin move higher, and miss every opportunity to add? Hey pulls back to 4500, I am a buyer, it is all about position size. I said that at 3550 when the trolls gave me crap, calling for 2k. I said if it gets there I am a buyer too, by the way where are all those guys lately? Regardless I would have kept adding into the dip as my time frame is long term. If it pushes back to 4500 I will be adding more.

As I have written about here and on our site for weeks. 3500 & 4500 are likely gone and hoping it gets back there before you add might have you missing out on the broader move. Also if you didn't have the balls to buy the pullback to 3500, you will likely get cold feet if we get to 4500. Remember all those at 6k last year waiting to buy 4500 or 3500 yet got scared when it got there? There are scared investors and there are bold investors, you have to determine which one you are. I never seen a scared investor make any money.

We are looking to buy this dip! THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING!
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May 21, 2019, 04:21:30 AM
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@JJG

Tbh buddy, I need to buy a diary (I like paper records) and write down a few price/sell scenarios. I need to be much better prepared for the next parabolic bull run.

The last one took me by surprise & I was a little bit like a deer in headlights.

We all need to have a fixed sell point for a % of our bitcoin’s in my opinion. I might go out tomorrow & buy a diary then scribble a few things down tomorrow night.

IMHO, all plans go astray when market hit you in the face as hard as the last time.

I don't think that all plans go astray.  The reason that you plan is to attempt to follow the plan to the best that you can, and of course, you have the power to adjust the plan (at your own discretion) and even if you attempt to have some rigidness in your plan, there is some value to both rigidness and flexibility.

Some of the ability to follow through with the plan is to really think through a variety of scenarios and consider if those variety of scenarios are going to affect you to want to have a different plan, and experience with bitcoin helps and experience with attempting to follow a plan in the past should help too, even if you failed to follow the plan in the past, your actual failure (and why you believe you failed) should inform you to create and to follow a better plan the next time around.

I understand that several times I have pointed out rpietila's "(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan" thread, and a thread like that seems like a "must read" for anyone who is experiencing dilemmas about attempting to follow a BTC cashing out plan.  I participate in the thread and certainly don't agree with all of the ideas of OP, but the thread still provides a variety of ways to think about creating a cashing out plan, attempting to stick with it and food for thought about whether tweaking any such plan might be individualistically better.

As far as my claim that experience has an ability to teach us how to attempt to act less emotionally, I have a lot of experiences of acting on emotions myself, but it still seems to me that going through a lot of bitcoin price change scenarios while playing around with your portfolio can provide a decent amount of information regarding how you specifically act in those kinds of situations.  A fairly early example of mine is that during most of 2015 when BTC prices were largely bouncing around between $220 and $280, I got quite a bit nervous when in late October / Early November 2015, BTC prices shot up to $500 within less than a week.  So, my well-thought through plan told me to sell BTC at various incremental amounts on the way up, but instead of selling, I cancelled my sell orders between about $380 and $500, and instead, at $500 I used a large amount of my remaining fiat to buy BTC.  The BTC price then reversed and largely got stuck between $350 and $450 from early November 2015 until the end of may 2016.  it was frustrating as fuck because i mostly had used a large amount of my fiat to buy at the top and i was largely locked out of doing anything for 6 months (I actually did cheat and reconfigure my trading plan in order that I could get back in business, but still I had done the opposite of what my plan had told me to do with some regrets for several months about letting my emotions get in the way).


I promised to someone to sell a certain amount at 10K, then market surged and I sold only 1/10 of what was agreed.

I agree you allowed your emotions to screw up your previously made plan, and you also tweaked your plan way more than you should have (likely based on emotions)

Now, i am not certain whether i should still go ahead at 10-11K (if and when we get there) OR wait it out.

Personally, I think that part of your problem is that your emotions are causing you to act out in too greedy of a way.  I understand that "greedy" is a negative assertion, but let's be real.  You are trying to maximize your profits and NOT allowing more moderation because you are afraid of missing out on "moar" profits. 

I say, fuck the more profits, and part of the solution is to come up with a plan that is totally acceptable to you, and therefore modify how you are thinking about the matter, and who gives any shits if you sell some BTC at $10k and BTC prices go non-stop to $50k without correcting.  Anyhow, what I am trying to say, is that if you ended up only selling 1/10 of your original plan, then you need to find an amount that you can live with NO matter what the subsequent BTC price direction and thereafter maybe sell 1/5 at $10k and then the remaining 4/5ths at price increments higher than $10k (such as $12k, $14.5k, and $16.5k or whatever you can find acceptable). 

From prior btc bull markets, they always tend to go to new ATHs; on the other hand-what if this is the first time it wouldn't happen (as unlikely as it is)?

You are absolutely correct.  It remains possible that BTC will never ever again reach any new ATH or even might not reach $10k again.  And, yes, the odds of BTC flaming out like that are not high, but the odds are non-zero.  That's for sure.

Another thought: I rather not plan selling at exact numbers, but maybe at a certain time vis-a-vis what I want to do with the proceeds.

It is a good practice to consider both price intervals and time intervals, and cashing out to buy your good or service at a certain time could end up backfiring considerably, so it is likely better to front load your cashing out, rather than gambling to sell BTC at the exact moment that your expense comes due (such as planning to cash out x amount in June 2020.. or whatever happens to be your time line).  On the other hand, if your BTC stash is in considerable profits, you could start to employ a plan in which you just cash out BTC at various times during the year, no matter the BTC price (and make some attempts to cash out some of those when the BTC price seems to be UP).
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May 21, 2019, 04:42:02 AM

fair 'nough.
 bet you a merit I end up being closer though.

Still betting?

Haven't learned any lesson(s) from your last bet gone wild?

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May 21, 2019, 04:52:04 AM

@JJG  keep writing long post bro, no matter what other thinks of it (which I know you don't bother). some of us find your posts valuable because you are always kind enough to share your experience. good or bad its another discussion.



hahahahahaha

Thanks..  No problem.  I cannot help myself anyhow.  My algorithm makes me do it...    Wink

By the way, I did recently get a new laptop, and I am still in the process of setting it up, so I am typing mostly on the old laptop until all my settings and everything is properly transferred to my new laptop....

Anyhow, with my old laptop, I had broken a few keys and even put in replacement keys, too.... I think that sometimes I type too hard.. maybe i get too excited?    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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May 21, 2019, 05:13:17 AM
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Good Morning WO,s

Why Cryptocurrency Diversification Makes Little Sense

https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-cryptocurrency-diversification-makes-little-sense-62e1cba711fa

Buy BTCitcoin. Wink

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May 21, 2019, 05:18:45 AM

fair 'nough.
 bet you a merit I end up being closer though.
Deal!



I just marked on my calendar!
See you in one year!
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May 21, 2019, 05:19:38 AM

Quote
The next wave isn't your grandma. It's institutions and pension funds.
The wave after that also isn't your grandma. It's central banks and governments.
I don't think old people will ever enter Bitcoin en masse.
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1130298125388832768

So is.

Highlighted stupid part is stupid. Jimmy Song and everyone he knows will be "old people" by the time the second wave comes. "Old people" of the future will be buying Bitcoin like the old people of today buy PMs.

I do not know the old people who buy or are interested in Bitcoin and possibly these people in the second wave think about living the end of their days comfortably.

This is the meaning of the message. Cool
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May 21, 2019, 05:39:03 AM

Quote
The next wave isn't your grandma. It's institutions and pension funds.
The wave after that also isn't your grandma. It's central banks and governments.
I don't think old people will ever enter Bitcoin en masse.
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1130298125388832768

So is.

Highlighted stupid part is stupid. Jimmy Song and everyone he knows will be "old people" by the time the second wave comes. "Old people" of the future will be buying Bitcoin like the old people of today buy PMs.

I do not know the old people who buy or are interested in Bitcoin and possibly these people in the second wave think about living the end of their days comfortably.

This is the meaning of the message. Cool
Old people will never accept what the younger generations says. Sad

Just let them be if they don't want just make the next generation oldies as more richer than ever.

via Imgflip Meme Generator
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May 21, 2019, 06:02:24 AM

@JJG  keep writing long post bro, no matter what other thinks of it (which I know you don't bother). some of us find your posts valuable because you are always kind enough to share your experience. good or bad its another discussion.








I like JJG, the WO is like a comic book. There are favourites & not so much favourites, JJG is definitely part of the furniture here though & he’s not going anywhere (unless Bob decides to pay somebody on the dark web to make him disappear or something).
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May 21, 2019, 07:08:08 AM
Last edit: May 21, 2019, 09:26:44 AM by Gyrsur

Gold Bar 400 oz =


History
1 BTC =
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May 21, 2019, 07:18:51 AM
Merited by micgoossens (2), JayJuanGee (1), Arriemoller (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Support line I drew back in early 2017 (it was my first post here, btw): We were barely over $1100 at that point.



Said "should expect $2000 at the very end of 2017, and $5000 at the end of 2018." Wouldn't dare to say anything about 2019.

Here's how it looks right now:



 Wink

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May 21, 2019, 07:22:26 AM

Has anyone consider that price change can be in connection with google putting huawei on blacklist. Im thinking what could happen if Chinese people could stop buying Coca Cola for one day.
Is it possible that could be connected in some way.
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May 21, 2019, 07:35:33 AM
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Has anyone consider that price change can be in connection with google putting huawei on blacklist. Im thinking what could happen if Chinese people could stop buying Coca Cola for one day.
Is it possible that could be connected in some way.

Nope, you're the only one who made that conclusion...
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May 21, 2019, 07:51:57 AM

Support line I drew back in early 2017 (it was my first post here, btw): We were barely over $1100 at that point.



Said "should expect $2000 at the very end of 2017, and $5000 at the end of 2018." Wouldn't dare to say anything about 2019.

Here's how it looks right now:



 Wink


So our next big target is $30K. Cool

Just keep holding that is what he also saying.
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May 21, 2019, 07:53:21 AM
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Has anyone consider that price change can be in connection with google putting huawei on blacklist. Im thinking what could happen if Chinese people could stop buying Coca Cola for one day.
Is it possible that could be connected in some way.

A connection to Huawei, pretty unlikely.
A connection to the overall trade-war chaos, very likely that at least many people turned to the universal and decentralized asset for safety.
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May 21, 2019, 08:14:18 AM

Thanks Toxic2040 for making me a Sr. Member.  Grin
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