Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Out of curiosity, what amount would you (or other fellow WOs) consider a healthy stash that one should have in order to realistically achieve financial independence? I know that it depends on country of residence, lifestyle, etc., but would love to hear your opinions on this.

Well, as you have correctly said, it depends on many factors so first you would need to think in FIAT terms (which is how most mundane things are priced) and establish a goal.

Let's say you come up with $1million as nice round number. Again, this could as low as $500K in some countries and just for a very modest lifestyle up to $5 million for US, with many years to live, and with a nice lifestyle.

ANyway, as I said, let's use the $1 million figure. So then, if you have 10 BTC, you would need a solid $100K price to reach that goal. Or just less than $50K if you have the "classic" 21BTC.

Most people with a three digit amount of BTC, we could consider they have already almost made it. Two digits... maybe soon, if we get lucky in the next few years.

Everyone needs to make their own numbers. And also remember that there is no guarantee of anything.

Of course that is if someone decides to cash out everything (or most) when the price target is reached. Which is not what I would suggest to do.

It would be much more reasonable, yet risky, to just keep cashing out as needed, even if you already reached your "goal". More so if you expect Bitcoin will keep rising during the next years or even decades.

Also, who said someone that just arrives right now to Bitcoin with barely any savings could easily just come and retire by investing what he can? That's not how the world (or nothing) works.

I understand the "retire" and "financial independence" point... but no, no one has any guarantee of that. And the only ones that have been in that position thanks Bitcoin it is either because:

1- They were extremely lucky in their entry point and/or decisions
2- They arrived later but they took the risk of investing a sizeable amount of money.
3- They hodled for MANY years. (ie. I am now on my 7 year some others way longer).

Bitcoin was never intended to be a get rich quick scheme, even if it resulted like that in some cases. For most it won't be a "retirement level" profit, just a better or worse investment.

As a final note I think I can give you the following great advise: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1924731.msg19097436#msg19097436

IOW, I don't think you really need any additional advise from me.

Thanks for the reply. As you said, a nice, round $1 million would be more than enough for most people in most countries. I believe the "classic" 21 BTC is a good amount to have, which makes the above goal almost a certainty. As for me, my stash has increased since that post of mine that you've quoted, but still in double digits (*), so I guess I still have some way to go before I can consider myself financially independent, whatever that may mean to each one of us. I can safely say, however, that if when BTC/USD reaches or exceeds $100k, my personal goal (not necessarily the one stated above) will have been reached by a good margin.

(*) The above is purely hypothetical, I forgot my passphrase, all coins gone, now only have what's left in my Kraken account (around 1000 Doge I think)...

[ssmc2]

Once we get going make sure you reference the MRV-Z and Puell multiple to assess the top 

Because, you know, we will be the only ones doing that, so it will work for sure.

Guess we'll see, but I don't think the number of people using the indicators will affect their usefulness. 

[JayJuanGee]

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.

Aiai..... bitserve.... the word “never” is just to strong to use though I do agree on trying to gain as much BTC as possible

I don't think I used the word "never"... but yeah, my main point is exactly that. Price alone won't make anyone rich if he doesn't have enough stake in the game in first instance. Never.

And I only made a "bet" that I would be perfectly glad to "lose". IF.

I see your point and I agree, except that the current price may be too high for a newcomer to be able to accumulate "enough stake" in the game to achieve financial independence at a much lower price...

Out of curiosity, what amount would you (or other fellow WOs) consider a healthy stash that one should have in order to realistically achieve financial independence? I know that it depends on country of residence, lifestyle, etc., but would love to hear your opinions on this.

If you are just getting into bitcoin, you do not have any choice.

You have to buy at today's prices, figure out your strategy and tailor your accumulating approach to your own circumstances.  Accumulation takes time, so even though in 2013, I might have been hesitant to say that you have to look ahead beyond 2 years, I think that these days, bitcoin is much more of an established investment in which you can plan to stay in a minimum of 4 years, but really 4-6 years is a prudent starting point.  If you are just getting in, you should not be expecting to retire in 4-6 years, but instead maybe be in a lot better position 4-6 years down the road to reassess what to do based on the BTC accumulation strategy that you have been following for the previous 4-6 years, which would likely including DCA, buying on dips, possible front loading and researching and tweaking your plans and system along the way.

Each person sets his/her targets in accordance with his own situation.  A new person who comes in at 50 years old and an already decently established investment portfolio is going to chose how to allocate differently than someone who is just graduating high school and maybe living on their own for the first time, whether that is at 16 years old or 18 years old or 21 years old or whatever age it is that someone might be first establishing his/her investment strategies, including probably considering that college is part of the plan or whatever younger person early life plans are part of the expenses and investments.

[edited out]

As a final note I think I can give you the following great advise: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1924731.msg19097436#msg19097436

IOW, I don't think you really need any additional advise from me.

Great for you, bitserve, to point out that thread with AlcoHoDL's own words. 

Even though AlcoHoDL was somewhat insightful in putting in a pretty decent chunk of investment in to BTC during an extended down period, the more important thing in his two posts in that thread seems to be that he identified a variety of long term fundamentals of bitcoin (at least reasons that he wanted to be "into" bitcoin), and that he had considered that his timeline for investment was at least 10 years (which is actually longer than the 4-6 year minimum that I am suggesting in my above response). 

So yeah 10 years does seem like a more reasonable investment timeline than 4-6 years, and so even though I was attempting to grant more shorter term flexibility and options, there remains a lot of wisdom if anyone who is just coming in allows for both the investing of money that can be afforded to lose and allowing the investment to play out for 10 years.. and might not even be as important concerning when the investor bought (top, middle, or bottom of the cycle) but just the fact that the investor is letting the whole matter ride for 10 years from the time of the investment... By the way, these kinds of long term allowances is one of the presumptions of the values of DCA investing also.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing all the 8’s

[JayJuanGee]

heck, we can do better...a WO wonderful hatcoin (WOW or WOH).

The number of coins is limited to xhomerix -issued (he is the treasurer).
Should be no more than 100-150 so far, a few more later. This is a strict one hat-one token situation (collectible).
Or, maybe one hat gives you 10-100 coins so it is somewhat more liquid, so you can give your heroes a coin or two.
Could be a sidechain if we don't want ERC-something.

69 coins divisible 69 decimal places.  What's wrong with the liquidity of that?  Not that anyone will ever own a whole coin.. instead fractions of a coin.. .. and gosh.. fungibility would be a bit fucked up, because presumably each coin has some kind of collectible hat-based WO history...    Like any bitcoin-imitation wannabe get rich from scarcity, it is bound to have a variety of scammy seeming issues, including issuance and distribution and butt-hurtedness of late-comers.

[eddie13]

https://twitter.com/gojonewsnow/status/1218235541512228864?s=20

Like wtf.....

Video shows garbage being dumped into a river (supposedly in ecuador), which seems to me to be one of the reasons why governments are needed.

Nah..
The guy would just get his ass beat and thrown in the river..

[becoin]

I dont understand what fight bears are fighting? We will pass $9k so why not just let it happen?

Because up-and-down-and-up-and-down make traders rich?

Until it brakes and makes traders poorer than before!

[El duderino_]

Sorry guys this evening is turning into a drunk-fest...... with another lovely couple .....

Can’t speak BTC anymore this evening focus is based elsewhere

Speak you fellas tomorrow

Cheers and enjoy Saturday for this moment!

[dragonvslinux]

https://twitter.com/gojonewsnow/status/1218235541512228864?s=20

Like wtf.....

Video shows garbage being dumped into a river (supposedly in ecuador), which seems to me to be one of the reasons why governments are needed.

Because the president there managed to stop this you mean? Looks like the constitution didn't stop anything 
This wouldn't be an argument for the need of government, but clearly the failure of such systems.

[Hyperjacked]

Getting primed for over 9k$ btc

[xhomerx10]

Sorry guys this evening is turning into a drunk-fest...... with another lovely couple .....

Can’t speak BTC anymore this evening focus is based elsewhere

Speak you fellas tomorrow

Cheers and enjoy Saturday for this moment!

 What?!  There's something other than Bitcoin? 
       

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/gojonewsnow/status/1218235541512228864?s=20

Like wtf.....

Video shows garbage being dumped into a river (supposedly in ecuador), which seems to me to be one of the reasons why governments are needed.

Nah..
The guy would just get his ass beat and thrown in the river..

There seems to be a lot of assumptions in your speculated assertion regarding what would happen to such a guy who is dumping a garbage truck into the river in a hypothesized non-governmental world.  

https://twitter.com/gojonewsnow/status/1218235541512228864?s=20

Like wtf.....

Video shows garbage being dumped into a river (supposedly in ecuador), which seems to me to be one of the reasons why governments are needed.

Because the president there managed to stop this you mean? Looks like the constitution didn't stop anything  
This wouldn't be an argument for the need of government, but clearly the failure of such systems.

I figured that some folks might want to argue the other side, and it is possible that we might not have enough facts.  Nonetheless, there is a bit of a problem with any volunteerist societal arrangement is that individuals will sometimes act in ways that put the cost of their behaviors onto someone else or the system.  


Edit: AYH... by the way.. as I type.  (you are welcome, jojo)...   $9,119.50 observed;... and still going...perhaps?

[skysblu]

Sorry guys this evening is turning into a drunk-fest...... with another lovely couple .....

Can’t speak BTC anymore this evening focus is based elsewhere

Speak you fellas tomorrow

Cheers and enjoy Saturday for this moment!

The only liquid my body can take in...



Hahahah, jk, have fun mate!

[skysblu]

9k HYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYPEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!

[jojo69]

AYH!

Yaaaaaaaay!

[dragonvslinux]

Getting primed for over 9k$ btc

Already reached $9.1K...

[jojo69]

next stop 12,200

[yefi]

Time for the bears to take down the decor and hand in the keys. It's over, you furry sacks of fat.

[soxxx]

All aboard

[heslo]

This is good, I like this! Happy Sunday (or Saturday night depending on where you are)