Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hung58bitcoin]

I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.

Hope they do realise some day though.

So what is your prediction? 10-12K at the time of halving what about 2021-2022? Sideways?  

No, it could reasonably be $50K. Maybe more, maybe less. I just say that $100K is probably too much to consider as a reasonable probability. Again, not impossible, depending if Bitcoin is able to regain something similar to 2017 FOMO, but even if that were the case I would not take $100K for granted.

In fact I would prefer a more organic and sustainable $50K than a "fomo" peak to $100K.

I would prefer a real growth to $20k lol 

I hope BTC will growth again $10k because I buy at BTC at $10200.

[1714808774]

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[gentlemand]

I can think of a couple sacred places I'd like to lick.

I went to an alleyway on the outskirts of Rome and paid off a member of the Swiss Guard for a ten minute play with this.



I could taste some thrush, a hint of swarfega and a whole lot of crystal meth so I'm pretty goddamn confident it was pulled straight off the pope in his sleep.

[Biodom]

I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.

Hope they do realise some day though.

$100k might be not possible in 1-2 years, but touching $50,000 at least once by the end of 2021 still looks quite possible to me.

Pish. $50K is the post FOMO blowoff top crash nadir price.

Yes, our last low was approx 2.69x prior high (3122 vs 1160).
Last high was 19,780, hence 2.69x of it is 53K, give or take.
If our prior trend would hold, we would decline about 81% from the putative ATH high to 53K making 278K an assumed predicted high (on a spike), which also makes sense in comparison with the 100K median-state S2F prediction.
The last time median price predicted by S2F was approx 6.7K, we went 2.95x of this at the peak...therefore, 2.95x 100k median is 295K, which almost matches the 278k number derived by other means (295 vs 278).

TL;DR IMHO, any price between 200K-300K is possible at the next peak and 50K is too low.

[Lambie Slayer]

100k=minimum. 400k=aspiration.

[Hueristic]

Definitely an inverse relation of price action to WO posts.

Not too hard to keep up the last few days.

Pull it together boys, this too shall pass, do not become weak hands.

You know who I'm looking at.

[goldkingcoiner]

100k=minimum. 400k=aspiration.

Aspiration is Bitcoin becoming the one and only world currency. This will create a truly free market that will push humanity into the future without corrupt governments being able to push the people down into the ground with overblown taxes and fake inflations. It is about time for people to take the power back from dictators and incompetent rulers of their countries.

And Blockchain will make everything nice and transparent. Proof>Trust.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Interesting.

Despite $BTC's recent price drop, its hashrate has hit ATH and continues to climb.

#Bitcoin's impending halving is getting closer each day, how do you expect price to react?

Read about Bitcoin & its diversification properties in portfolio management. Flecha hacia abajo
https://research.binance.com/analysis/bitcoin-diversification-benefits

Source: https://twitter.com/BinanceResearch/status/1234311320620584960

[Lambie Slayer]

100k=minimum. 400k=aspiration.

Aspiration is Bitcoin becoming the one and only world currency. This will create a truly free market that will push humanity into the future without corrupt governments being able to push the people down into the ground with overblown taxes and fake inflations. It is about time for people to take the power back from dictators and incompetent rulers of their countries.

And Blockchain will make everything nice and transparent. Proof>Trust.

Yes agree that we will eventually become the Global Reserve Currency. Im referring to the top of the next bubble as 100k-400k. We will have more Bull and Bear markets before we become the reserve currency.

[Paashaas]

Coronavirus update:

- There are currently 89,068 confirmed cases worldwide, including 3,045 fatalities.

- First cases in Dominican Republic, Czech Republic and Ireland.

- First coronavirus case confirmed in New York City. Washington state reports 4 new cases including 1 new death, in King County. 2 new cases confirmed in California.

- Berlin reports first case.

- Italy reports 42% jump in cases overnight to nearly 1,700

- Indonesia reports first cases of Covid-19.

- New coronavirus cases jump sharply around the globe many infected countries reporting more cases.

- MotoGP of Qatar has been canceled due to coronavirus.

- Turkish Airlines cancels all Italy flights.

- France shuts down Louvre. 30 new cases in France, raising total to 130.

- American Airlines suspending all flights to and from Milan untill 25 April.

- Juventus quarantines U23 squad.

- Armenia closing schools for a week.

- British citizens and some diplomatic staff have been evacuated from the UK's embassy in Tehran.

- Morocco will postpone sports and cultural events.

- Panic buying in supermarkets.




Dramatic drop in levels of air pollution after closing down China's factories.

[rolling]

100k=minimum. 400k=aspiration.

Aspiration is Bitcoin becoming the one and only world currency. This will create a truly free market that will push humanity into the future without corrupt governments being able to push the people down into the ground with overblown taxes and fake inflations. It is about time for people to take the power back from dictators and incompetent rulers of their countries.

And Blockchain will make everything nice and transparent. Proof>Trust.

Yes agree that we will eventually become the Global Reserve Currency. Im referring to the top of the next bubble as 100k-400k. We will have more Bull and Bear markets before we become the reserve currency.

One big thing will need to change before it becomes the global reserve currency though. It will have to be declared a currency by most of the world. There is no way it grows to that level as a taxable commodity.

Edit: Other currencies could be backed by bitcoin though.

[bitebits]

Been thinking about it a bit more. Bitcoin does not produce anything. There is no dependency on any supply chain being functional or not. Dumping your precious bitcoins like a company stock because of a non computer virus makes absolutely no sense. It is an irrational decision unless your purpose is to try an buy them back cheaper, and we all know how that worked out over the last 10+ years for Joe Average.

The problem is that a fair amount of BTC is owned or at least manipulated by Wall Street and large institutions like Bakkt and the CME. Wall Street views bitcoin has an extremely high risk asset, meaning it is the first asset to get sold off whenever there is a panic of sorts. Only after Wall Street has minimized its involvement with BTC and regular folks feel comfortable with their amount of fiat money will BTC's price begin to stabilize.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but that's what I believe.

And that is where sellers of any size are wrong.

First volatility != risk. Retail investors often act emotional (the human monkey brain has a hard time dealing with ‘losing’) but institutions/algorithms know better. Bitcoin until today is volatile in only one direction: up. It is therefore more likely institutions involved in Bitcoin are selling to compensate for their recent losses in stocks, which is probably why gold went down as well after its multi year high: profit taking.

Second Bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset. It does not care about China, the stock market, covid-19, or even bitebits posting in the WO. Selling bitcoins for any other reason than permanently getting out is stupidity and you will get burnt, whether you are Wall Street or Joe Average.

The <=2015 days when Bitcoin actually was a risky investment are long gone. To those who did I salute you.

[bitserve]

IF Bitcoin would ever become a recognised reserve currency a lot of years will be needed and a LOT of obstacles would need to be overcome. It is true a long way has already already come, but an even longer remains. So any price predictions that depend on that will still have to wait a good amount of years to materialise. Without that, those price predictions of $400K for the next few years seem bonkers to me, and even a $100K price target in 2-3 years it's still no more than a (plausible) dream.

That being said, I really, really, hope to be proved wrong and make me (incredibly) happy

On other news, it looks like $8.5K keeps holding. This is fine.

On yet another news:

- Today the figure of 7000 Bitcoin ATM's worldwide will be reached. It has grown from 6326 at 1 jan 2020. That is an average of 337 new installations for each of the first two months of the year. At this current rate it would reach the nice round number of 10000 before EOY. This is fine, very fine.

- LN nodes keep rising in number albeit slowly with 11624 right now.

For any of the above to exponentially rise, something really disruptive would need to happen, like a major traditional ATM provider adding crypto support or some advances on LN neutrino (or similar) so that it can be smoothly run in smartphones. The first one I see it coming sometime soon, not so sure about the second one since I think for LN usage custodial LN wallets are a more practical way to go.

[fillippone]

Interesting.

Despite $BTC's recent price drop, its hashrate has hit ATH and continues to climb.

#Bitcoin's impending halving is getting closer each day, how do you expect price to react?

Read about Bitcoin & its diversification properties in portfolio management. Flecha hacia abajo
https://research.binance.com/analysis/bitcoin-diversification-benefits

Source: https://twitter.com/BinanceResearch/status/1234311320620584960

I am not an expert here, but Antminer launched for general public availability a new miner recently.
They might have been using it undercover and now that's available the difficulty is deemed to rise further.
Bitmain Announces Specs for Next-gen Antminer S19 and S19 Pro Coming Soon

[akhjob]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/fbevx8/netflix_serie_altered_carbon_2_is_showing_bitcoin

In the Netflix Series, Altered carbon, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are shown in the price tag of some products.

[bitserve]

Interesting.

Despite $BTC's recent price drop, its hashrate has hit ATH and continues to climb.

#Bitcoin's impending halving is getting closer each day, how do you expect price to react?

Read about Bitcoin & its diversification properties in portfolio management. Flecha hacia abajo
https://research.binance.com/analysis/bitcoin-diversification-benefits

Source: https://twitter.com/BinanceResearch/status/1234311320620584960

I am not an expert here, but Antminer launched for general public availability a new miner recently.
They might have been using it undercover and now that's available the difficulty is deemed to rise further.
Bitmain Announces Specs for Next-gen Antminer S19 and S19 Pro Coming Soon

Yup, that's a plausible explanation. It's nice seeing how, even with the halving so near, the mining industry (providers and miners) keep investing betting on a post-halving price rise. Even if most of the hashrate increase is coming from more efficient devices it must be taken into account that in order to get a positive ROI not only electricity and operational costs need to be taken into account to calculate cost of mining, but also the investment in those new devices.

Of course the cost (per produced unit) for Bitmain itself is probably very low plus they have to make sure to raise the global hashrate to "force" other miners to buy their improved devices if they want to keep in the game. BUt there's no reason to think that "trick" won't keep working as always have.

[OutOfMemory]

Too far behind to even try to catch up, but I have a little something for you that might explain the rapid spread in Iran. Apparently it's a thing in Iran to lick sacred places and the government aren't shutting them down.
Video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1233783635007954949

Saw this too. Unbelievable. They even believe in the "healing power" of licking the shrine.
I consider this as an example of Darwin's Law. Some cultures are just too dumb to succeed (EDIT: and/or survive).
Reminds me of flat earthers a little.

I can think of a couple sacred places I'd like to lick.

I went to an alleyway on the outskirts of Rome and paid off a member of the Swiss Guard for a ten minute play with this.



I could taste some thrush, a hint of swarfega and a whole lot of crystal meth so I'm pretty goddamn confident it was pulled straight off the pope in his sleep.

Almost always i read something like this from you, i have to compulsively think about Patrick Bateman. #nohomo
Btw: The movie is like an audiovisual sleeping pill, compared to the novel, imo.

Coronavirus update:

... (more unconvenient news)

The chinese government seems to have some success in limiting the outbreak applying strict measures.
I don't see much of a chance for the rest of the world, excluding north korea and russia. I refer to Darwin's Law again.
My last hope is that the virus doesn't survive summer's sun ultraviolet radiation levels (like SARS).
However, my UV-C equipment is set up and ready. It can decontaminate a whole room and every surface within that is reached by its light, in a matter of minutes, without the side effect of producing ozone. My health now only relies on family members that have to go to work or school. Everything else is manageable by using soap and proper hand washing techniques. As a person with hyper-reactive immune system, i have to take stronger measures each winter, i'm already used to that by now.

Dramatic drop in levels of air pollution after closing down China's factories.

The bright side of the two-sided-medal.

[nutildah]

Been thinking about it a bit more. Bitcoin does not produce anything. There is no dependency on any supply chain being functional or not. Dumping your precious bitcoins like a company stock because of a non computer virus makes absolutely no sense. It is an irrational decision unless your purpose is to try an buy them back cheaper, and we all know how that worked out over the last 10+ years for Joe Average.

The problem is that a fair amount of BTC is owned or at least manipulated by Wall Street and large institutions like Bakkt and the CME. Wall Street views bitcoin has an extremely high risk asset, meaning it is the first asset to get sold off whenever there is a panic of sorts. Only after Wall Street has minimized its involvement with BTC and regular folks feel comfortable with their amount of fiat money will BTC's price begin to stabilize.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but that's what I believe.

And that is where sellers of any size are wrong.

First volatility != risk. Retail investors often act emotional (the human monkey brain has a hard time dealing with ‘losing’) but institutions/algorithms know better. Bitcoin until today is volatile in only one direction: up. It is therefore more likely institutions involved in Bitcoin are selling to compensate for their recent losses in stocks, which is probably why gold went down as well after its multi year high: profit taking.

Second Bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset. It does not care about China, the stock market, covid-19, or even bitebits posting in the WO. Selling bitcoins for any other reason than permanently getting out is stupidity and you will get burnt, whether you are Wall Street or Joe Average.

The <=2015 days when Bitcoin actually was a risky investment are long gone. To those who did I salute you.

Volatility absolutely equals risk. That's what makes risky asset categories risky. High risk, high reward. If an asset simply rises, that's not volatility -- that's stability. However, bitcoin doesn't do that. Previous to cryptocurrency, Wall Street's highest risk asset category was emerging markets, for the exact same reason: they are highly volatile.

Traditionally, there has been zero correlation between BTC in the stock market; however, the stock market has been in a bull run for almost the entirety of bitcoin's existence, and Wall Street only started really getting into bitcoin in the last couple years. We have yet to see how bitcoin will react to a bear stock market.

[AlcoHoDL]

I can think of a couple sacred places I'd like to lick.

I went to an alleyway on the outskirts of Rome and paid off a member of the Swiss Guard for a ten minute play with this.



I could taste some thrush, a hint of swarfega and a whole lot of crystal meth so I'm pretty goddamn confident it was pulled straight off the pope in his sleep.

Yuck! I wouldn't touch a woman wearing this shit.

Got to keep things simple guys. That f*cking hanging thing spoiled it for me.

Nothing like a Sloggi sprinkled with baby powder.

[AlcoHoDL]

Reverting back to my $\leq$ 4-digit hat... Rules are rules. We have stayed under $9000 for too long. Unfortunately, the heavily low-pass filtered hysteresis algorithm has been triggered!

Looking forward to being in orange again.

[El duderino_]

Reverting back to my $\leq$ 4-digit hat... Rules are rules. We have stayed under $9000 for too long. Unfortunately, the heavily low-pass filtered hysteresis algorithm has been triggered!

Looking forward to being in orange again.

I understand that..... would live to wear my 15K hat once again as well

Though please never anymore say in the open that a “sloggi” is the sh*t for woman to wear.....

There are plenty of better brands for woman to wear