Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

  ...... [edited out].........
– 6. It was foolish of me to disclose my BTC holdings to certain people.
 ...... [edited out].........

 Just a note. I too 'regret' #6..but in hindsight it was worth so little in 2013 and I had so little that by the time I had some...well ..not big deal everyone can see how

 much now..just google bitcointalk.org Searing and BTC Hodl is probably all it would take for me or any other 2013 or around there adopter.

I also like how, when the topic does come up, how some people remember ME blowing them off about Bitcoin questions....and I remember a lot of 'your an idiot' and

'taunting' thus making real conversations difficult for those who have not got any BTC even now.

It's difficult to NOT reveal at least some details, especially when they do not seem to be vry important - but later become more important...

One thing with the passage of time you do not need to continue to confirm because you can say:  "that was then."   You can also engage in conduct to provide disinformation, too... without saying what amounts are disinformation and which amounts are not...

Those are not lies that matter - because many of us deserve some rights to our privacy, especially if our safety could come into question... or even just there can be other kinds of problems when people know things that they really do not need to know.

Regarding selective memory... surely, people are likely to have differing memories of events and evn emphasizing different parts of the memory that may or may not matter at a future point in time.  This can be another issue of each of us deciding how we would like to spin such memories (past events) - whether true or not and whether anyone else has any rights to you providing a different spin or not.

I think a lot of HODL'ers, especially older, will crack around $20k a lot could sell 1/2 of hodl'ings from back in the day they mined for 1/2 million dollars or more. The wife real life issues, health issues, older, I think a lot will 'crack' and sell at that point. Thus myself I'd be beyond shocked if we were 'steady' above $25k next year, until that kinda thing 'shakes itself out' ...the closer society starts to take this as 'real $$$' the more likely REAL LIFE issues will cause some or a lot of HODL'ers to sell..espcieally if they got into this at say $100 a BTC or some such. I hope I'm dead wrong, and it is more like a Rancher by Reno, NV saying 'screw it' keeping the Ranch. But I'll put that out here on Bitcointalk on the hope I'm really, really, wrong..but how I'm calling it for future praise or mockery.

Yes, I agree that you have a tendency to put unnecessary pessimistic spins to suggest that this time is different, when you really have hardly any evidence to establish that this time is different, beyond pure speculation that is shrouded by pessimism.

Accordingly, similar statements were made about all the folks who would be selling at the previous ATH of $1k, and it did not happen.  Sure, some people sold, but they largely got fucked because we were not in deadman's zone for very long.. and even some of those folks were hoping, in 2018 and 2019, to buy back cheap coins that they sold in early 2017 for in the neighborhood of $1k.. were not even able to get in for under $3k... .. and too bad so sad that they sold way too many coins too soon.. and I have no reason to believe that this time is going to be much different in terms of a need to be careful in buying into nonsense theories about all the BTC HODLrs who just cannot wait to get rid of their coins in the deadman's zone of about $17,250 to $23,500.  Not too bright to be selling much if any coins in that price range... even if you have some lame theory that there are peeps just eager as fuck to get out "at a profit."

[jojo69]

[marcus_of_augustus]

... who's ready for 13.88? ... and onwards to 14k+ who know's where ...

[JimboToronto]

who's ready for 13.88? ... and onwards to 14k+ who know's where ...

Count me in.

[explorer]

who's ready for 13.88? ... and onwards to 14k+ who know's where ...

Count me in.

Oohh  That's a good one!

MMMF!


Moo Moo Motherfuckers

[savetherainforest]

• The sinking of a Chinese T-69 tank in the Gulf of Thailand. The discarded Tanks became artificial reefs in the marine ecosystem of the bay.

The ocean will get lead poisoning from all these rusty tanks, planes and ships we keep throwing in it.

[Searing]

Yeah, about Brad's post...

... Also in 2013 my 'banker' sic'd the SEC on me due to Bitcoin being 'evil' and drug money and all. With a speaker phone

on with SEC guy, when I brought reciept of BTC purchase and their error of I spent $99,999.99 (i mean really, you can't catch such a bank error?) The banker THEN

tried to jack me up with the SEC guy on the phone and say I obviously did not do my taxes on Bitcoin. I antipated the asshole and slapped my completed 2013 by CPA

(revised for the new Bitcoin rules) down and called  him an asshole.

The SEC guy through speaker phone was like 'why am I here? Anyway, some of you have heard this story, but

this illlustrates how far Bitcoin has come since 2013! ...

Brad

You are a very forgiving person if that banker did not end up with at least a  broken nose out of the deal.
There are taddle or snitch rewards when the IRS collects on tax evaders.   Maybe that is what he was hoping for...

a broken nose is what he deserved (deserves).

Shoulda/coulda/wooda....but I was so....frigging relieved....I had already done taxes that year..then the IRS 14 days or something before the April deadline...put

the 'current' crytpo rules into play..that apply to mining etc, etc. Before that point the CPA said, did you spend any you mined? I went NOPE. So no taxes.

The of course the 2014 rules that applied all the way back to 2009 and cap gains, etc we see today. So I walked out of the bank, figuring I was gonna owe like

$4,000 on my US Taxes, and I was 'damn happy' about it. They could have really, really hung me up by my short hairs on this..except for the obvious bank

reciept error. So anyway...went back again, to the CPA and she re-did all again, and said I owed nothing due to my equipment and purchase in that I mined

the BTC...so, it was a wash either way. I also found out the difference between a regular bank (TCF..a midwest bank) and a Commercial Bank..changed all

my accounts (but $100 so I could keep my inflated, due to 2007 crash $30k home equity line of credit I got in a 'waived' fee ..saved like $1.2k on refinance

when the economy tanked on that promotion). But the comercial banker folk laughed their ass off on this story..they had a couple more on how the bank

in question could not do wire xfers (I told them that also was my story...took a month to fix)....so I learned that you go to a commercial bank and such probably

regional version is better...they are not as clueless. But yeah, I should have at 'least' faked bumping into his ass, and swept his feet...as he kept trying to 'poke' me with

his finger and not really pulling it off. He sure looked stupid infront of his employees and the SEC guy that is for sure. He really, really tried to toss me under the IRS bus

to re-coup his error. But yeah, in 2013, if you mentioned the dreaded Bitcoin..you was a drug dealer finacier. However, the week before the SEC call and such, which

gave me time to go full CPA, when I went into the bank, 2 times in the period. It was kinda cool, in that everyone looked at me like I was John Dillinger and would

'whisper' and look at me like I was gonna 'rob' the place. Was Chilly, Chilly, Chilly!

That is as close to being and 'evil mastermind' that I will ever attain. But yeah, in the midwest, folks really, really, bought the drug money hype in 2014.

lesson learned

Brad

[Searing]

 ...... [edited out].........
– 6. It was foolish of me to disclose my BTC holdings to certain people.
 ...... [edited out].........

 Just a note. I too 'regret' #6..but in hindsight it was worth so little in 2013 and I had so little that by the time I had some...well ..not big deal everyone can see how

 much now..just google bitcointalk.org Searing and BTC Hodl is probably all it would take for me or any other 2013 or around there adopter.

I also like how, when the topic does come up, how some people remember ME blowing them off about Bitcoin questions....and I remember a lot of 'your an idiot' and

'taunting' thus making real conversations difficult for those who have not got any BTC even now.

It's difficult to NOT reveal at least some details, especially when they do not seem to be vry important - but later become more important...

One thing with the passage of time you do not need to continue to confirm because you can say:  "that was then."   You can also engage in conduct to provide disinformation, too... without saying what amounts are disinformation and which amounts are not...

Those are not lies that matter - because many of us deserve some rights to our privacy, especially if our safety could come into question... or even just there can be other kinds of problems when people know things that they really do not need to know.

Regarding selective memory... surely, people are likely to have differing memories of events and evn emphasizing different parts of the memory that may or may not matter at a future point in time.  This can be another issue of each of us deciding how we would like to spin such memories (past events) - whether true or not and whether anyone else has any rights to you providing a different spin or not.

I think a lot of HODL'ers, especially older, will crack around $20k a lot could sell 1/2 of hodl'ings from back in the day they mined for 1/2 million dollars or more. The wife real life issues, health issues, older, I think a lot will 'crack' and sell at that point. Thus myself I'd be beyond shocked if we were 'steady' above $25k next year, until that kinda thing 'shakes itself out' ...the closer society starts to take this as 'real $$$' the more likely REAL LIFE issues will cause some or a lot of HODL'ers to sell..espcieally if they got into this at say $100 a BTC or some such. I hope I'm dead wrong, and it is more like a Rancher by Reno, NV saying 'screw it' keeping the Ranch. But I'll put that out here on Bitcointalk on the hope I'm really, really, wrong..but how I'm calling it for future praise or mockery.

Yes, I agree that you have a tendency to put unnecessary pessimistic spins to suggest that this time is different, when you really have hardly any evidence to establish that this time is different, beyond pure speculation that is shrouded by pessimism.

Accordingly, similar statements were made about all the folks who would be selling at the previous ATH of $1k, and it did not happen.  Sure, some people sold, but they largely got fucked because we were not in deadman's zone for very long.. and even some of those folks were hoping, in 2018 and 2019, to buy back cheap coins that they sold in early 2017 for in the neighborhood of $1k.. were not even able to get in for under $3k... .. and too bad so sad that they sold way too many coins too soon.. and I have no reason to believe that this time is going to be much different in terms of a need to be careful in buying into nonsense theories about all the BTC HODLrs who just cannot wait to get rid of their coins in the deadman's zone of about $17,250 to $23,500.  Not too bright to be selling much if any coins in that price range... even if you have some lame theory that there are peeps just eager as fuck to get out "at a profit."

yes..I'm just 'tossing' a guess out there with the $18k mark or some such. This is however IS based in 'some' fact...when watching Bitcoin in the Summer of 2013

while waiting for my miner, it seems a 'lot' of folks that a year previously that were getting their BTC mined for pennies on the $$$ 'cracked' that summer and took

their Million USD instead when it got to the 'insane' $64 usd price. Much 'lamenting' on BFL Chat Room and other places of how they screwed up in the Fall let me

tell you..but I see the same 'possibility' of 'too far' and 'too fast' ... I mean if you got like those guys the 'majority' of your coin on a CPU at less than a buck..well..

$64 looked pretty insane.. I think BTC was already like $11 bucks in Jan of 2013 as well. So that is my 'guess' of a cracking point...once the 'weak hands' lets call

it that, were to wash out..then my 'guess' would be you might not see such again till 80k or 100k Bitcoin. But much 'wrestling' with the fact with these 'whales'

back in 2013..the 'insane' pump in Bitcoin Price and it had to be a bubble. I just see the stressors now as the same at about 18K and 20K...hell, damn, I'm will

be tempted as such, and I'm retired and NOT living on my crypto anymore (unlike when I retired in Jan 2018) ..thus...I can imagine pressures of job/wife/money

here 7 years later with that kinda growth..getting to anyone. Also all I say, if I am unclear, I am 'clueless' ..I rant, I rave, I say this, I say what if this happens..it has

about as much continuity as calling a race at a Greyhound Track....but my 'guess' and observations were, from back in the day..way back newbie days...that $60 or

around 5x the price from Jan 2013, I seem to think a lot of folk were dumping in chat groups and taking the usd and running..it happened again at 1k later that year

then the panic dumps...then at ..IMHO..guess..just as big at 10K up / down the times it has bounced there so long since 2013....and now my next guess is it will

again happen at around $18K TO $20K..even if it is 'just' a little 'pruning' of say 5% of the portfolio as a 'real-life-is-weird-in-2020-pandemic-hedge. Thus it will

add up and 'soften' the curve up into 2021...again, my frigging guess. Which along with 50c will buy you a can of soda...means zip.

Anyway, tossing it out there for 'ammo' in the future and people can call me on it ...as being wrong..on my hope too that I am dead, frigging wrong.

But hey, it may be a crummy position..but at least I'm  'hodl'ing' too it!

(I'm such a twit..er I mean wit..really I meant wit! Damn it! I meant wit!.   wanders off....kicks a 'throw pillow' at the cat...mumbling to self.)

Brad

[hisslyness]

 ...... [edited out].........
– 6. It was foolish of me to disclose my BTC holdings to certain people.
 ...... [edited out].........

 Just a note. I too 'regret' #6..but in hindsight it was worth so little in 2013 and I had so little that by the time I had some...well ..not big deal everyone can see how

 much now..just google bitcointalk.org Searing and BTC Hodl is probably all it would take for me or any other 2013 or around there adopter.

I also like how, when the topic does come up, how some people remember ME blowing them off about Bitcoin questions....and I remember a lot of 'your an idiot' and

'taunting' thus making real conversations difficult for those who have not got any BTC even now.

It's difficult to NOT reveal at least some details, especially when they do not seem to be vry important - but later become more important...

One thing with the passage of time you do not need to continue to confirm because you can say:  "that was then."   You can also engage in conduct to provide disinformation, too... without saying what amounts are disinformation and which amounts are not...

Those are not lies that matter - because many of us deserve some rights to our privacy, especially if our safety could come into question... or even just there can be other kinds of problems when people know things that they really do not need to know.

Regarding selective memory... surely, people are likely to have differing memories of events and evn emphasizing different parts of the memory that may or may not matter at a future point in time.  This can be another issue of each of us deciding how we would like to spin such memories (past events) - whether true or not and whether anyone else has any rights to you providing a different spin or not.

I think a lot of HODL'ers, especially older, will crack around $20k a lot could sell 1/2 of hodl'ings from back in the day they mined for 1/2 million dollars or more. The wife real life issues, health issues, older, I think a lot will 'crack' and sell at that point. Thus myself I'd be beyond shocked if we were 'steady' above $25k next year, until that kinda thing 'shakes itself out' ...the closer society starts to take this as 'real $$$' the more likely REAL LIFE issues will cause some or a lot of HODL'ers to sell..espcieally if they got into this at say $100 a BTC or some such. I hope I'm dead wrong, and it is more like a Rancher by Reno, NV saying 'screw it' keeping the Ranch. But I'll put that out here on Bitcointalk on the hope I'm really, really, wrong..but how I'm calling it for future praise or mockery.

Yes, I agree that you have a tendency to put unnecessary pessimistic spins to suggest that this time is different, when you really have hardly any evidence to establish that this time is different, beyond pure speculation that is shrouded by pessimism.

Accordingly, similar statements were made about all the folks who would be selling at the previous ATH of $1k, and it did not happen.  Sure, some people sold, but they largely got fucked because we were not in deadman's zone for very long.. and even some of those folks were hoping, in 2018 and 2019, to buy back cheap coins that they sold in early 2017 for in the neighborhood of $1k.. were not even able to get in for under $3k... .. and too bad so sad that they sold way too many coins too soon.. and I have no reason to believe that this time is going to be much different in terms of a need to be careful in buying into nonsense theories about all the BTC HODLrs who just cannot wait to get rid of their coins in the deadman's zone of about $17,250 to $23,500.  Not too bright to be selling much if any coins in that price range... even if you have some lame theory that there are peeps just eager as fuck to get out "at a profit."

yes..I'm just 'tossing' a guess out there with the $18k mark or some such. This is however IS based in 'some' fact...when watching Bitcoin in the Summer of 2013

while waiting for my miner, it seems a 'lot' of folks that a year previously that were getting their BTC mined for pennies on the $$$ 'cracked' that summer and took

their Million USD instead when it got to the 'insane' $64 usd price. Much 'lamenting' on BFL Chat Room and other places of how they screwed up in the Fall let me

tell you..but I see the same 'possibility' of 'too far' and 'too fast' ... I mean if you got like those guys the 'majority' of your coin on a CPU at less than a buck..well..

$64 looked pretty insane.. I think BTC was already like $11 bucks in Jan of 2013 as well. So that is my 'guess' of a cracking point...once the 'weak hands' lets call

it that, were to wash out..then my 'guess' would be you might not see such again till 80k or 100k Bitcoin. But much 'wrestling' with the fact with these 'whales'

back in 2013..the 'insane' pump in Bitcoin Price and it had to be a bubble. I just see the stressors now as the same at about 18K and 20K...hell, damn, I'm will

be tempted as such, and I'm retired and NOT living on my crypto anymore (unlike when I retired in Jan 2018) ..thus...I can imagine pressures of job/wife/money

here 7 years later with that kinda growth..getting to anyone. Also all I say, if I am unclear, I am 'clueless' ..I rant, I rave, I say this, I say what if this happens..it has

about as much continuity as calling a race at a Greyhound Track....but my 'guess' and observations were, from back in the day..way back newbie days...that $60 or

around 5x the price from Jan 2013, I seem to think a lot of folk were dumping in chat groups and taking the usd and running..it happened again at 1k later that year

then the panic dumps...then at ..IMHO..guess..just as big at 10K up / down the times it has bounced there so long since 2013....and now my next guess is it will

again happen at around $18K TO $20K..even if it is 'just' a little 'pruning' of say 5% of the portfolio as a 'real-life-is-weird-in-2020-pandemic-hedge. Thus it will

add up and 'soften' the curve up into 2021...again, my frigging guess. Which along with 50c will buy you a can of soda...means zip.

Anyway, tossing it out there for 'ammo' in the future and people can call me on it ...as being wrong..on my hope too that I am dead, frigging wrong.

But hey, it may be a crummy position..but at least I'm  'hodl'ing' too it!

(I'm such a twit..er I mean wit..really I meant wit! Damn it! I meant wit!.   wanders off....kicks a 'throw pillow' at the cat...mumbling to self.)

Brad

I agree many will start to prune and shave their stash. I don't think there is issue with sharing up to 5% of your hodl in the this cycle.

Until we have supermarkets/petrol stations/restaurants accepting Bitcoin, we all need to live and enjoy the benefits Bitcoin has brought.

Side note: Unconfirmed Transaction is hovering around 120,000 -130,000. Starting to feel like May-2017 lead up to the Christmas ATH...

[lightfoot]

So I should fire up a miner to help this logjam?

[Toxic2040]

As far as I know, the post count and sig in this thread are disabled for obvious reasons ... I posted several messages here, but changed the topic of the dialogue (and I see that posts were included in the stats of account). How does this rule work?

most around here dont give 2 sats for meta thankfully..  as far as your question goes, rules seem to be kept at a minimum here..again thankfully

afaik not being a dick to others seems to be the most prevalent

you can re all you want.. I dont think anybody cares

 

-------

I've gotta work tomorrow so I want to wish everyone happy Halloween a day early!



Make sure you disinfect those treats

happy all hollows eve!


------

+1 WOsMerit


------

... who's ready for 13.88? ... and onwards to 14k+ who know's where ...

+1 WOsMerit





-------

-snip-

But hey, it may be a crummy position..but at least I'm  'hodl'ing' too it!

(I'm such a twit..er I mean wit..really I meant wit! Damn it! I meant wit!.   wanders off....kicks a 'throw pillow' at the cat...mumbling to self.)

Brad

 


-------

#dyor
1h

#stronghands

[tranthidung]

Hi WO gang,

Have a beautiful weekend and enjoy the bull run of BTC.

Today, I come back with another analysis, this time for Bitcoin block size and transaction fee (in satoshi/ kB or USD). Enjoy!

ABSTRACT

• The network conditions are reflected by block size that in turn causes fee is high or low. The median value of daily block size in October is above 1.23 MB.
• In 2020 so far, the median of daily block size is 1.27 MB
• October is the month with transaction size are stable around 1.27 MB (see box plot with vertical line, box, whisker and raw results). In median, the latest 3 months (August - October) have same value at 1.27 MB
• In differences (%) between median of fee (in specific day to all days in 2020), people are paying more expensive fees in October: around 508% (in satoshis) or 20224% (in USD).
• The medians (all days in 2020) of fee per kB are 32467.2 satoshi or 0.1 USD
• In the last 3 months, more people accept higher fees that reflects by narrower gaps between differences of max - median and p75 - median (see plot)
• In median of daily max fee: people tend to accept 10⁺ USD for each kB in October. However, October is not the highest month, it is a third one instead. The 2 highest months are May and August. Reminder is outliers in October (latest days) are much higher than outliers in May or August.
• In median of daily daily median fee: people tend to accept 5 ⁺ USD for each kB in October and it is the third highest month, after May and August. The same data interpretation for outliers.

Time series plots

Block size in MB (it is after I calculated medians for daily block size).

Code:

Summary for variables: sizeMB
     by categories of: month 

    month |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   2020m1 |     31.00      1.13      0.17      1.21      1.05      1.22      0.51      1.26
   2020m2 |     29.00      1.23      0.04      1.24      1.21      1.26      1.13      1.28
   2020m3 |     31.00      1.21      0.10      1.25      1.22      1.27      0.85      1.33
   2020m4 |     30.00      1.19      0.12      1.23      1.17      1.26      0.79      1.30
   2020m5 |     31.00      1.29      0.03      1.28      1.27      1.31      1.22      1.36
   2020m6 |     30.00      1.23      0.12      1.27      1.24      1.29      0.78      1.33
   2020m7 |     31.00      1.27      0.04      1.28      1.27      1.30      1.12      1.35
   2020m8 |     31.00      1.29      0.02      1.29      1.27      1.31      1.25      1.34
   2020m9 |     30.00      1.28      0.04      1.29      1.27      1.31      1.15      1.39
  2020m10 |     29.00      1.29      0.02      1.29      1.28      1.30      1.23      1.35
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |    303.00      1.24      0.10      1.27      1.23      1.29      0.51      1.39
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Block size (for all blocks in 2020). I don't calculate daily median for this one.

Code:

Summary for variables: size
     by categories of: m 

        m |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   2020m1 |   4737.00 974062.11 440761.55  1.19e+06 637357.00  1.29e+06    244.00  2.21e+06
   2020m2 |   4154.00  1.10e+06 381206.27  1.24e+06  1.05e+06  1.32e+06    293.00  2.28e+06
   2020m3 |   4255.00  1.10e+06 384647.89  1.24e+06  1.06e+06  1.32e+06    244.00  2.14e+06
   2020m4 |   4513.00  1.08e+06 390384.36  1.22e+06  1.05e+06  1.30e+06    244.00  2.42e+06
   2020m5 |   4192.00  1.27e+06 225990.99  1.28e+06  1.20e+06  1.36e+06    280.00  2.07e+06
   2020m6 |   4549.00  1.15e+06 373225.21  1.26e+06  1.13e+06  1.34e+06    244.00  2.20e+06
   2020m7 |   4589.00  1.23e+06 285914.06  1.28e+06  1.20e+06  1.35e+06    244.00  2.29e+06
   2020m8 |   4521.00  1.28e+06 230549.31  1.29e+06  1.21e+06  1.36e+06    217.00  2.33e+06
   2020m9 |   4531.00  1.24e+06 292441.24  1.29e+06  1.20e+06  1.36e+06    200.00  2.19e+06
  2020m10 |   3977.00  1.25e+06 266874.59  1.29e+06  1.21e+06  1.36e+06    213.00  2.33e+06
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |  44018.00  1.16e+06 349851.87  1.26e+06  1.15e+06  1.34e+06    200.00  2.42e+06
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Updates:

Data was imported on 29 October 2020 (ends at block #654708), not recently but the plot shows time points at which mempool was clear sometimes in October. Whenever the p25 value of daily block size falls back to below 1 MB, mempool has chances to get clearer.

I made a typo in plot title: The period is 01 Oct 2020 - 29 Oct 2020.

All-time and 2020 plots

[VB1001]

              
Today, 12 years ago
Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin whitepaper

- Fri Oct 31 14:10:00 EDT 2008 Bitcoin A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System
https://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2008-October/014810.html
- Here in several languages:
https://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-paper

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

yes..I'm just 'tossing' a guess out there with the $18k mark or some such. This is however IS based in 'some' fact...when watching Bitcoin in the Summer of 2013 while waiting for my miner, it seems a 'lot' of folks that a year previously that were getting their BTC mined for pennies on the $$$ 'cracked' that summer and took their Million USD instead when it got to the 'insane' $64 usd price. Much 'lamenting' on BFL Chat Room and other places of how they screwed up in the Fall let me tell you..but I see the same 'possibility' of 'too far' and 'too fast' ... I mean if you got like those guys the 'majority' of your coin on a CPU at less than a buck..well.. $64 looked pretty insane.. I think BTC was already like $11 bucks in Jan of 2013 as well. So that is my 'guess' of a cracking point...once the 'weak hands' lets call it that, were to wash out..then my 'guess' would be you might not see such again till 80k or 100k Bitcoin. But much 'wrestling' with the fact with these 'whales' back in 2013..the 'insane' pump in Bitcoin Price and it had to be a bubble. I just see the stressors now as the same at about 18K and 20K...

It seems to me that a few points are worth noting, if we are attempting to account for 2013 in regards to what might happen.

I will concede to you that there is more than one way that an exponential curve could play out in the four year fractal and still largely be within free market parameters of expectations.  Accordingly, 2013 does represent a double top kind of model, and 2017 represents a single top kind of model.

So, sure, it is possible that we could end up having a 2020/21/22/23 run up that has more than one top, and the various corrections during the process of getting to the ultimate blow off top might cause a shakening of a lot of weak hands along the way.  So surely there could be various ways in which HODLers sell way too many coins too soon, and actually, if you think about the matter, more deeply, these kinds of tactics might be the better ways that the status quo rich may be able to lessen (even if they cannot completely prevent) some of the impacts of one of the likely largest transfers of wealth that the world has ever seen.  

There could be all kinds of tragedies along the way in which some HODLers are tricked into selling way too many coins too soon... and if you are 50, 60, 70 or 80 years old, you might not give as many shits about any of those matters (except to the extent that you might have been planning to pass some of your wealth to your descendants) because your own timeline is NOT long enough, and you are still able to figure out ways to considerably profit from however you play your bitcoin cards.  So of course, the more years that you have, the more that you would likely want to have more power in whatever ways that you choose to allocate your wealth for the longer time-frame of what you expect your life to be or the estate (legacy) that you might want to plan to pass down to your heirs.

So, in some sense, I may be kind of agreeing with you about various ways that weak hands could be shaken from some or all of their coins - but I still do NOT buy into any story that you might be wanting to outline that attempts to ascribe power to the weak hands bringing down the market or stories that they BTC price is failing to go up because too many weak hands are ready, willing and able sell their coins.

Sure, there is always a dynamic in which peeps with wealth (sometimes referred to as bearwhales) are going to want to employ resources to keep BTC prices down as low as they can and for as long as they can, but still some of the dynamics of how much they are able to keep the price down or to keep it down may also be limited - including that we still remain in relatively early stages of adoption and some of the other peeps with money (and even regular joe blow public, retail) are going to continue to contribute to ongoing upward price pressures on lil fiend, even if some folks, that you seem to be relating to, Searing, are nervous, valuing their wealth in lockability dollars, but they are still likely to be overwhelmed by ongoing adoption rather than really causing inabilities for BTC prices to significantly rise beyond previous all time highs.

As I already mentioned, similar kinds of stories were told in 2015/2016 regarding how so many folks were supposedly going to be selling around $1k blah blah blah... and how it took so much more capital to push BTC prices above $1k as compared to how much capital it had taken to push BTC prices above $100 blah blah blah...

nonsense...

We continue to witness entrances of new players into bitcoin who are going to help to contribute to likely inevitable  and ongoing upwards BTC price pressures, evn if we are getting into BTC prices that currently seem too difficult to sustain.. whether referring to $25k prices or $100k prices or even higher prices such as $500k or $1 million that may well end up being way more sustainable than previously thunk.  

hell, damn, I'm will be tempted as such, and I'm retired and NOT living on my crypto anymore (unlike when I retired in Jan 2018) ..thus...I can imagine pressures of job/wife/money here 7 years later with that kinda growth..getting to anyone. Also all I say, if I am unclear, I am 'clueless' ..I rant, I rave, I say this, I say what if this happens..it has about as much continuity as calling a race at a Greyhound Track....but my 'guess' and observations were, from back in the day..way back newbie days...that $60 or  around 5x the price from Jan 2013, I seem to think a lot of folk were dumping in chat groups and taking the usd and running..it happened again at 1k later that year then the panic dumps...then at ..IMHO..guess..just as big at 10K up / down the times it has bounced there so long since 2013....and now my next guess is it will again happen at around $18K TO $20K..even if it is 'just' a little 'pruning' of say 5% of the portfolio as a 'real-life-is-weird-in-2020-pandemic-hedge. Thus it will add up and 'soften' the curve up into 2021...again, my frigging guess. Which along with 50c will buy you a can of soda...means zip.

Anyway, tossing it out there for 'ammo' in the future and people can call me on it ...as being wrong..on my hope too that I am dead, frigging wrong.

But hey, it may be a crummy position..but at least I'm  'hodl'ing' too it!

(I'm such a twit..er I mean wit..really I meant wit! Damn it! I meant wit!.   wanders off....kicks a 'throw pillow' at the cat...mumbling to self.)

Brad

On a personal level you can do what you like.

Personally, I have never suggested completely HOLDING everything through BTC price appreciation periods, but instead shaving some off along the way, and how much to shave off should be contemplated by projecting out scenarios such as the BTC price rising very quickly and/or the BTC price rising slowly and going through interim painstaking correction cycles - including longer 2-3 year correction cycles that cause some peeps to regret NOT having had sold more BTC in the arena of blow of top prices.  I personally believe that those of us who have been through previous BTC cycles and even including peeps who may not have been through previous cycles but have enough imagination when they look at previous charts, we have enough information to be able extrapolate various scenarios, even extreme scenarios and attempt to pee pare our lil selfies for those various extreme scenarios.. and having had gone through a few of these kinds of outrageous extreme scenarios, many of us have come to realize both that it can seem surreal as fuck to actually be going through an extreme scenario that you had projected as NOT very likely, while at the same time, if a relatively small number of us had a "kind of workable" plan in place, then we end up feeling much better for having had made such a plan and we even feel better if we make various tweaks to the plan along the way because the plan put us in a way better position than what we would have been in, if we had not created such a plan and had not tried to largely follow such plan.

Of course, each of us also have our own limitations in creativity in terms of how much we are really able to extrapolate what we are going to do under various scenarios and we might well even end up gravitating towards scenarios that end up NOT playing out.. and then we feel that we have not prepared enough.. so I am NOT even suggesting that everyone is going to be able to really plan for all of the scenarios.. even though there may be ways that anyone could do better at least outlining some extreme scenarios so they are not totally caught off guard by selling too much too soon or the employment of other gambling techniques that may not feel too good if they end up NOT playing out very well... I am not saying to use margin.. even though some folks become so confident that they end up using margin to screw their own selfies in situations where they did not need to be screwed.. why get greedy when bitcoin already has asymmetric probabilities sitting right in front of us.. (I am surely NOT suggesting that you, Searing, are someone who is inclined to employ margin even though you may be someone who might still end up having regrets because of lack of adequately pee paring for certain scenarios that are outside of your expectations).

PS...
By the way, I have heard some fairly prominent bitcoin folks assert that people should consider selling all or large portions of their BTC holdings if it would result in "life changing" impacts upon them... And, personally, I believe this "life changing impacts" concept would likely cause too many BTC HODLers to employ inadequately contemplated actions that involve selling too much bitcoins too soon... It is not a good parameter, especially if they are failing to figure out some kind of balance for what they might be doing with the money, whether it is buying real estate, investing in a business, investing in education of oneself, buying PMs, getting into equities, buying an annuity, keeping more money in fiat, or buying some consumer goods.  Of course, not all uses of money are equal, and frequently when we are young, we need to put our capital to work in various and if we are ONLY invested in bitcoin, it may well be prudent to diversify a bit more outwardly into other assets, even if many of them might NOT hold their value too well or be too much dependent upon fiat values or the lack of value that is given to so much debt being out there in circulation in our current society... Still some investments are better than others, and I suppose in the end, I had largely created this particular PS because I wanted to quibble with the vague concept of "life changing impacts" because it remains an inadequate concept on its own, without at least attempting to explore whether you might be allocating away from bitcoin because of needs to invest in yourself, in investment goods or in consumption goods.. good to determine what you are investing in and also analyzing other particular circumstances that are pertinent to your situation including cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and time, skills abilities to plan learn along the way and to tweak your strategies along the way including reallocating and whether and the extent that you trade at all.

[AlcoHoDL]

– 8. When it comes to Bitcoin, "invest what you can afford to lose" may not be the best advice for a newbie...
– 9. By the time Bitcoin is widely adopted, many, if not most, of the current Bitcoin small players will own almost zero coins (and will be well alive to regret it).
– 10. Most of the coins of [9] will end up in the hands of hundreds of Michael Saylors, with Michael Saylor being the best of the bunch.

Over the years, my thinking has kind of evolved regarding these points (especially 8 & 9), and I would not even suggest that I am any kind of sage on the topic, even though I have given considerable thought to matters of allocation and tailoring investments to personal circumstances based on experiences and also attempting to extrapolate in terms of how some variation of my experiences might play in terms of the situations of others (especially trying to consider the situations of normies, but not exclusively preoccupied with normies who might not be motivated to put some self-directed efforts into figuring out and employing their investment approach).

So there are a few points that I can elaborate on here:

1) Establish a target BTC investment that is based on your personal circumstances (maybe easier said than done) - taking account each of the circumstances of: cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with view of other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and time skills and abilities to plan, learn along the way and to reallocate including trading etc;

2) Surely, not investing more than you can afford to lose is a good concept (make sure that you have your cashflow covered for 6 months or longer and and also consider having an investment timeline that is at least 4 years, and safer to hav a longer investment timeline, like 10 years or longer).  Thereby, I am thinking that once target investment is established, there can be some value in thereafter overinvesting a bit beyond your preferred allocation target level will make it easier to skim off some profits along the way up (in the event that BTC prices go up - but surely only very small amounts that allows the vast majority of the investment to continue to ride for the longer term) and cause some increases in psychological and financial comfort levels, and this should help the prudent peeps from selling too much of their coins too soon.. in order to at least attempt to lessen issues with the problems that you, AlcoHoDL outline in your point 9;

3) actually regarding issues raised in your point 10.. who fucking cares what other people do or if some people might get a BIGGER stake? - that is the way the world works with the rich being able to exploit situations, and the best that you can do is to attempt to tailor your investment situation to your own circumstances and attempt to learn from others to the extent that might be possible or applicable (by the way, AlcoHoDL, I am not criticizing your ideas specifically because I recognize that you know the deal as well as most of us (if not better), so I do realize that you are NOT obsessed with what other people do with their coins but that you were merely trying to illustrate the blunt reality of how the rich are likely to take coins from the weak hands by hoarding coins once they figure out the importance of BTC.. and the weak hands (or would we say dumb money) are likely NOT able to recognize the value of the asset that they had previously purchased).

We largely agree, but just a few points...

1/2. I wouldn't want anyone to take my points as investment advise. "Invest only what you can afford to lose" is great for most people, and a safe(r) approach to investing. But sometimes one must take risks. That was the point I was trying to make, which I'm sure you're aware of. Risk is what distinguishes the smart from the lucky. You can play the lottery for $2 and win millions risk-free, but that doesn't mean you're any smarter that the average person—you just got lucky. For traditional investments, that motto is very good advice. But here we have something that has the potential to change everything. In such cases, and when one truly recognizes said potential, one may consider deviating from that rule and take a little (or a lot) more risk. History has shown that, in the case of Bitcoin, that was a smart (and not lucky) move.

3. About my points (9) and (10), I didn't mean to imply that I care about what others do, or want to preach to others how they should use their coins, or their fiat, or whatever. Not at all. I'm merely observing what is happening, as your small-letter text correctly states. This is how the world works. In the beginning of the Bitcoin era, maybe up to triple-digit prices, there were lots of small players owning hundreds or even thousands of BTC (we all remember the pizza story). As we move on to the present, we see a shift of coins to big players with the cash to be able to do it. And I'm not only talking about newly minted coins. Many of the coins that are going to end up in the hands of big players are "old" coins. They are (and will be) yours and mine. Many small players (that's us) will eventually sell their coins way too early for different reasons. This is understandable. We all want to enjoy life and do things we couldn't do before. Lambos, hookers, blow and all. So, I conjecture that many of the small players (that's us) will slowly become later versions of Laszlo Hanyecz, selling our precious coins for fiat peanuts, while the smart guys in the room buy them from us. I'm sure those two pizzas tasted good. And the Lambos, hookers and blow will feel great...

Just observing... Not criticizing...

[Cryptotourist]

2 quick moves and the entire btc network is now clogged with insane fees.

WHAT  could help this problem hmm that guy with 17k btc can do an off book to PayPal and PayPal can sell btc with little or no fees.

This is what BTC purists are up against.

Yes, this is what BTC is up against, so core DEVs better get a move on.

[Searing]

So I should fire up a miner to help this logjam?

I am ONLY considering such...when I fire up the overhead electric 220v heater in the basement...this winter to putter about with stuf..so the miner is just to add a bit


more heat and not even crypto 'dust' but the 'illusion' of crypto dust and additional heat...if one is on..they

both can be on...till the thermostat kicks off at least the 220v overhead heater. I do know people that use their 220v miners to keep their dry

sauna 'mold' free? I am not in that 'exalted' camp.


I don't see any POW miner of any Algo favored coin...be it BTC/LTC or whatever ....being even in the 'realm' of possiblility for me at 8c kWh

till at the very best Fall 2021...and likely to stay a dream at 8c kWh even then.

 This is being optimistic, IMHO. I need an honest person, overseas, with an honest data hall, in China...er no not China...pesly USA tarrif, so say Malyasia at 2c kWh,

but I think a 'super-model' girlfriend ...might...be better odds...sigh..I miss POW mining...this DeFi coin stuff and staking and pos coins just has

me befuddled..in full noob mode....

Brad

[Searing]

[edited out]

yes..I'm just 'tossing' a guess out there with the $18k mark or some such. This is however IS based in 'some' fact...when watching Bitcoin in the Summer of 2013 while waiting for my miner, it seems a 'lot' of folks that a year previously that were getting their BTC mined for pennies on the $$$ 'cracked' that summer and took their Million USD instead when it got to the 'insane' $64 usd price. Much 'lamenting' on BFL Chat Room and other places of how they screwed up in the Fall let me tell you..but I see the same 'possibility' of 'too far' and 'too fast' ... I mean if you got like those guys the 'majority' of your coin on a CPU at less than a buck..well.. $64 looked pretty insane.. I think BTC was already like $11 bucks in Jan of 2013 as well. So that is my 'guess' of a cracking point...once the 'weak hands' lets call it that, were to wash out..then my 'guess' would be you might not see such again till 80k or 100k Bitcoin. But much 'wrestling' with the fact with these 'whales' back in 2013..the 'insane' pump in Bitcoin Price and it had to be a bubble. I just see the stressors now as the same at about 18K and 20K...

It seems to me that a few points are worth noting, if we are attempting to account for 2013 in regards to what might happen.

I will concede to you that there is more than one way that an exponential curve could play out in the four year fractal and still largely be within free market parameters of expectations.  Accordingly, 2013 does represent a double top kind of model, and 2017 represents a single top kind of model.

So, sure, it is possible that we could end up having a 2020/21/22/23 run up that has more than one top, and the various corrections during the process of getting to the ultimate blow off top might cause a shakening of a lot of weak hands along the way.  So surely there could be various ways in which HODLers sell way too many coins too soon, and actually, if you think about the matter, more deeply, these kinds of tactics might be the better ways that the status quo rich may be able to lessen (even if they cannot completely prevent) some of the impacts of one of the likely largest transfers of wealth that the world has ever seen.  

There could be all kinds of tragedies along the way in which some HODLers are tricked into selling way too many coins too soon... and if you are 50, 60, 70 or 80 years old, you might not give as many shits about any of those matters (except to the extent that you might have been planning to pass some of your wealth to your descendants) because your own timeline is NOT long enough, and you are still able to figure out ways to considerably profit from however you play your bitcoin cards.  So of course, the more years that you have, the more that you would likely want to have more power in whatever ways that you choose to allocate your wealth for the longer time-frame of what you expect your life to be or the estate (legacy) that you might want to plan to pass down to your heirs.

So, in some sense, I may be kind of agreeing with you about various ways that weak hands could be shaken from some or all of their coins - but I still do NOT buy into any story that you might be wanting to outline that attempts to ascribe power to the weak hands bringing down the market or stories that they BTC price is failing to go up because too many weak hands are ready, willing and able sell their coins.

Sure, there is always a dynamic in which peeps with wealth (sometimes referred to as bearwhales) are going to want to employ resources to keep BTC prices down as low as they can and for as long as they can, but still some of the dynamics of how much they are able to keep the price down or to keep it down may also be limited - including that we still remain in relatively early stages of adoption and some of the other peeps with money (and even regular joe blow public, retail) are going to continue to contribute to ongoing upward price pressures on lil fiend, even if some folks, that you seem to be relating to, Searing, are nervous, valuing their wealth in lockability dollars, but they are still likely to be overwhelmed by ongoing adoption rather than really causing inabilities for BTC prices to significantly rise beyond previous all time highs.

As I already mentioned, similar kinds of stories were told in 2015/2016 regarding how so many folks were supposedly going to be selling around $1k blah blah blah... and how it took so much more capital to push BTC prices above $1k as compared to how much capital it had taken to push BTC prices above $100 blah blah blah...

nonsense...

We continue to witness entrances of new players into bitcoin who are going to help to contribute to likely inevitable  and ongoing upwards BTC price pressures, evn if we are getting into BTC prices that currently seem too difficult to sustain.. whether referring to $25k prices or $100k prices or even higher prices such as $500k or $1 million that may well end up being way more sustainable than previously thunk.  

hell, damn, I'm will be tempted as such, and I'm retired and NOT living on my crypto anymore (unlike when I retired in Jan 2018) ..thus...I can imagine pressures of job/wife/money here 7 years later with that kinda growth..getting to anyone. Also all I say, if I am unclear, I am 'clueless' ..I rant, I rave, I say this, I say what if this happens..it has about as much continuity as calling a race at a Greyhound Track....but my 'guess' and observations were, from back in the day..way back newbie days...that $60 or  around 5x the price from Jan 2013, I seem to think a lot of folk were dumping in chat groups and taking the usd and running..it happened again at 1k later that year then the panic dumps...then at ..IMHO..guess..just as big at 10K up / down the times it has bounced there so long since 2013....and now my next guess is it will again happen at around $18K TO $20K..even if it is 'just' a little 'pruning' of say 5% of the portfolio as a 'real-life-is-weird-in-2020-pandemic-hedge. Thus it will add up and 'soften' the curve up into 2021...again, my frigging guess. Which along with 50c will buy you a can of soda...means zip.

Anyway, tossing it out there for 'ammo' in the future and people can call me on it ...as being wrong..on my hope too that I am dead, frigging wrong.

But hey, it may be a crummy position..but at least I'm  'hodl'ing' too it!

(I'm such a twit..er I mean wit..really I meant wit! Damn it! I meant wit!.   wanders off....kicks a 'throw pillow' at the cat...mumbling to self.)

Brad

On a personal level you can do what you like.

Personally, I have never suggested completely HOLDING everything through BTC price appreciation periods, but instead shaving some off along the way, and how much to shave off should be contemplated by projecting out scenarios such as the BTC price rising very quickly and/or the BTC price rising slowly and going through interim painstaking correction cycles - including longer 2-3 year correction cycles that cause some peeps to regret NOT having had sold more BTC in the arena of blow of top prices.  I personally believe that those of us who have been through previous BTC cycles and even including peeps who may not have been through previous cycles but have enough imagination when they look at previous charts, we have enough information to be able extrapolate various scenarios, even extreme scenarios and attempt to pee pare our lil selfies for those various extreme scenarios.. and having had gone through a few of these kinds of outrageous extreme scenarios, many of us have come to realize both that it can seem surreal as fuck to actually be going through an extreme scenario that you had projected as NOT very likely, while at the same time, if a relatively small number of us had a "kind of workable" plan in place, then we end up feeling much better for having had made such a plan and we even feel better if we make various tweaks to the plan along the way because the plan put us in a way better position than what we would have been in, if we had not created such a plan and had not tried to largely follow such plan.

Of course, each of us also have our own limitations in creativity in terms of how much we are really able to extrapolate what we are going to do under various scenarios and we might well even end up gravitating towards scenarios that end up NOT playing out.. and then we feel that we have not prepared enough.. so I am NOT even suggesting that everyone is going to be able to really plan for all of the scenarios.. even though there may be ways that anyone could do better at least outlining some extreme scenarios so they are not totally caught off guard by selling too much too soon or the employment of other gambling techniques that may not feel too good if they end up NOT playing out very well... I am not saying to use margin.. even though some folks become so confident that they end up using margin to screw their own selfies in situations where they did not need to be screwed.. why get greedy when bitcoin already has asymmetric probabilities sitting right in front of us.. (I am surely NOT suggesting that you, Searing, are someone who is inclined to employ margin even though you may be someone who might still end up having regrets because of lack of adequately pee paring for certain scenarios that are outside of your expectations).

PS...
By the way, I have heard some fairly prominent bitcoin folks assert that people should consider selling all or large portions of their BTC holdings if it would result in "life changing" impacts upon them... And, personally, I believe this "life changing impacts" concept would likely cause too many BTC HODLers to employ inadequately contemplated actions that involve selling too much bitcoins too soon... It is not a good parameter, especially if they are failing to figure out some kind of balance for what they might be doing with the money, whether it is buying real estate, investing in a business, investing in education of oneself, buying PMs, getting into equities, buying an annuity, keeping more money in fiat, or buying some consumer goods.  Of course, not all uses of money are equal, and frequently when we are young, we need to put our capital to work in various and if we are ONLY invested in bitcoin, it may well be prudent to diversify a bit more outwardly into other assets, even if many of them might NOT hold their value too well or be too much dependent upon fiat values or the lack of value that is given to so much debt being out there in circulation in our current society... Still some investments are better than others, and I suppose in the end, I had largely created this particular PS because I wanted to quibble with the vague concept of "life changing impacts" because it remains an inadequate concept on its own, without at least attempting to explore whether you might be allocating away from bitcoin because of needs to invest in yourself, in investment goods or in consumption goods.. good to determine what you are investing in and also analyzing other particular circumstances that are pertinent to your situation including cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and time, skills abilities to plan learn along the way and to tweak your strategies along the way including reallocating and whether and the extent that you trade at all.

From above I did not mean to 'imply' a big blow up of dumping and weak hands...I do think that the 'temptation' of real life issues MAY make $20k stick around into

next year as the high...Bitcoin has been known to go sideways for quite a bit. As far as 'life-changing' there comes a point where you can sell some coin (or mine some

coin to a point like me back in 2018) when you go ..why the hell am I still working? Those kind of decisions I think (right or wrong) are gonna 'likely' happen at what

I consider the point of around say $20k or a bit above the All Time High. Sure, folk can HODL...but it gets damn difficult at  (what is it now?) the say at current

$13,607.82 usd price as I type this which would be 1 Million Dollars if you have 73.49 BTC to get that. Also, a LOT of people jumped into BTC in 2013...so a lot may

be in that boat...so 'perhaps' it is prudent for them to look at the HODL Hoard..if that kinda thing above is where they are at. It will take a year, if my premise is

correct, IMHO, to eat through that 'bit above ATH' and move on with another explosion of price. (knock wood)

I know I dumped all my Alcoins worth enough to retire 3 years early, till I felt comfortable with traditional investments and a balance of stocks/bonds in these

times to live off of. Not working for someone the last 3 years was just dandy, and I don't miss the 'likely' sold too low the Altcoins for that 3 years of not being

a wage slave. NOW IF, Institutions, jump in and really, really step up to 'by-pass' my 'supposed' senario of above in the adoption and HODL of BTC/Crypto...

my fears may happen, but will be meaningless in the great scheme of things and continued Bitcoin/and perhaps Altcoin price rises.

I'm just again, putting it out their that I think such a 'bottle-neck' if you want to state such, is gonna happen a bit after we get to ATH, soonest likely with

economic conditions....but hell, I sure hope institional adoption and regular adoption just 'buys' up all the above 'supposed' coins I 'think' maybe dumped

for real world $$$ at that point. But again, I putting a flag in the sand on what I think, guessing, might happen..steady price at a around ATH for months into 2021.

Again, hope I'm wrong, but hey, this is what I'm saying with my neck stuck way out on WO anyway. Also, again, would love to eat 'crow' happily on this being

too pesimistic....just allow me to pluck the feathers first and use A1 sauce.

Brad

[PoolMinor]

Don't drop the ball! Rockets are fueling to surpass previous ATH.














Oh and don't forget to breathe, it will all be over soon. In about 13 months

[El duderino_]