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From above I did not mean to 'imply' a big blow up of dumping and weak hands...I do think that the 'temptation' of real life issues MAY make $20k stick around into next year as the high...Bitcoin has been known to go sideways for quite a bit.
It could go sideways at $20k, but the odds are quite low, and I get a bit irritated fantasizing about scenarios in which the odds are low rather than attempting to focus on more likely scenarios.. sure we have to be prepared for anything but seems quite unrealistic to be focusing upon less likely scenarios.
As far as 'life-changing' there comes a point where you can sell some coin (or mine some coin to a point like me back in 2018) when you go ..why the hell am I still working? Those kind of decisions I think (right or wrong) are gonna 'likely' happen at what I consider the point of around say $20k or a bit above the All Time High.
Don't get me wrong. There may be opportunities that surely present themselves that had not been present, and accordingly a damned compelling reason to cash out a decent amount or all of the BTC stash because of such presented opportunity. So, I surely am NOT asserting that situations might not come about or there might not be ways to reframe the situation in which investing in something other than BTC appears to be the better conclusion.
But there could also be some problems if the conclusion is reached to pull the fuck you lever upon incomplete information and inadequate planning and the conclusion to pull the fuck you lever ends up bing wrong because of lack of preparedness and inadequate analysis of the situation.
Sure, folk can HODL...but it gets damn difficult at (what is it now?) the say at current $13,607.82 usd price as I type this which would be 1 Million Dollars if you have 73.49 BTC to get that.
10 or 20 years ago, $1 million might have been an adequate target, and sure $1million still might be an adequate target for some people, but it also seems that $1million is becoming less and less likely to be adequate as a target.
I had suggested $2million as a better target - but even that seems b on shaky grounds when we hav members like Biodom suggesting that $6million might be the minimum fuck you status entry point (which I still consider to be a bit above average.. or too pie in the sky in terms of the vast majority of normies).
I have also incorporated some other safety measures into my own way of calculating fuck you status value, and that is to use the 208 week moving average BTC price, and surely my methodology includes an emphasis to continue to HODL bitcoin rather than converting to dollars, so I consider that the 208 week moving average would be a safe way to calculate whether fuck you status has ben reached and also to provide a decent amount of assurance that the fuck you lever is not pulled too soon. So currently the 208 week moving average is at about $6,800, and so that would require about 147 BTC.
So, yeah, concededly if you want to keep decent portions of your wealth in BTC, then I believe that you should be using the 208 week moving average to calculate the value of those BTC holdings. Of course, some of us have quasi-liquid value that is in other assets, so we may well be combining various asset categories to verify whether we have reached our fuck you status amount.
Also, a LOT of people jumped into BTC in 2013...so a lot may be in that boat...so 'perhaps' it is prudent for them to look at the HODL Hoard..if that kinda thing above is where they are at. It will take a year, if my premise is correct, IMHO, to eat through that 'bit above ATH' and move on with another explosion of price. (knock wood)
I generally agree that it may be more accurate to presume that for anyone to really be getting close to confident fuck you status, they likely would have needed to be in bitcoin for at least one more cycle, but maybe even that is a bit presumptuous in terms of considering the extent that someone may even be getting close to having had been able to build a fuck you status stash of BTC... or combination of BTC and other investments... but sure the longer that someone has been in bitcoin and accumulating bitcoin, then we might develop some presumptions that they may have built a large enough stash to be able to start shaving off some profits, whether that is shaving large proportions or some may be transitioning into more of a mindset that I (and others) have been advocating in recent times which is figuring out ways in which large portions of the BTC stash might not need to be sold and still be able to carry out a kind of fuck you status exit (entry? / transition).
I know I dumped all my Alcoins worth enough to retire 3 years early, till I felt comfortable with traditional investments and a balance of stocks/bonds in these times to live off of. Not working for someone the last 3 years was just dandy, and I don't miss the 'likely' sold too low the Altcoins for that 3 years of not being a wage slave. NOW IF, Institutions, jump in and really, really step up to 'by-pass' my 'supposed' senario of above in the adoption and HODL of BTC/Crypto...my fears may happen, but will be meaningless in the great scheme of things and continued Bitcoin/and perhaps Altcoin price rises.
I'm just again, putting it out their that I think such a 'bottle-neck' if you want to state such, is gonna happen a bit after we get to ATH, soonest likely with economic conditions....but hell, I sure hope institional adoption and regular adoption just 'buys' up all the above 'supposed' coins I 'think' maybe dumped for real world $$$ at that point. But again, I putting a flag in the sand on what I think, guessing, might happen..steady price at a around ATH for months into 2021.
Again, hope I'm wrong, but hey, this is what I'm saying with my neck stuck way out on WO anyway.
Also, again, would love to eat 'crow' happily on this being too pesimistic....just allow me to pluck the feathers first and use A1 sauce.
Brad
I doubt that you can assert with any level of confidence inspiration that your predictions have been steady for any kind of meaningful amount of time, except perhaps your seemingly ongoing tendency to take where-ever we might be and to paint a pessimistic viewpoint on that.. and then to assign too high of odds to such pessimistic viewpoint. So, I agree that it is not helpful for us to become too optimistic, but there can be problems with continuing to paint too pessimistic scenarios, too.
In the end, yeah, there are a variety of scenarios that could play out, but there is some validity to looking at how BTC prices have performed in the past, too. We have ongoing facts on the ground that continue to help us to put credibility on the four year fractal models and to see what kinds of price dynamics happen in BTC.. and it dos not tend to stick around previous ATHs, and there are reasons for that... there is a kind of psychology that goes with BTC price movement, and psychology is helped to be backed up when we can witness certain kinds of events happening at the same time to show that buying pressure is continuing from a variety of angles (and you can choose to see them or not, or you can choose to hypothesize about the supposed smaller potato weak hands who may be selling their coins too soon.... the choice of what to see is yours, and I don't even believe that I am spinning any of this, I just continue to see you emphasizing a lot of glass half-full kinds of scenarios... and yeah, sure they might play out.. but I am not going to place a lot of weight into such unlikelihoods even if you believe them with all your heart...
#nohomo....
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