Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

phil!!  heeeeeeey phil!!!!!!


wakeup man!!!! buddy got one over on you. this is not a good look for us humans ya know

Hey I stayed up till 1am .

I am back on the job and gaining on buddy for Thursday.

I am beginning to realize it is close to impossible to do this for a month.

Buddy  march 2  = 13
Phil      march 2 =   9

what holds me back is I don't do mobile for bitcointalk

thus when I leave the house buddy gains on me.
and of course buddy gains while I sleep.

[Patrol69]

Source

[philipma1957]

Source

wonder if it is worth reading the article.

Did you read any of it?




Buddy  march 2  =  13
Phil      march 2 =   10

[BobLawblaw]

I did buy 2 m30s+ units which are earning coin as I type.
I am adding a 110th s19 pro next week

Props to you for continuing mining. I just can't cost-justify the aggravation at this point managing a miner - I was torturing myself with Lightning as it is, and find at the end of the day, it's just easier to smash buy $250 at odd intervals; knowing it's more BTC than I would have acquired if I never bought the miner to begin with...

Unnerstan?

[philipma1957]

I did buy 2 m30s+ units which are earning coin as I type.
I am adding a 110th s19 pro next week

Props to you for continuing mining. I just can't cost-justify the aggravation at this point managing a miner - I was torturing myself with Lightning as it is, and find at the end of the day, it's just easier to smash buy $250 at odd intervals; knowing it's more BTC than I would have acquired if I never bought the miner to begin with...

Unnerstan?

yep 👍 since that is the cheapest way for you to buy btc.

my mining deal allows me to get btc at 50% off. once the gear is paid for.

So if I expand slowly during the “dip” i pay the piece of gear off quickly and then get coin at half price

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

You can be a royal pain in the ass.

Thanks.

do you think i believe that we will have 5 years of 5% to 7% interest from the fed.

Do I have any idea regarding what you think?

That's a rhetorical question, right?

I know that you have frequently presented a quite a bit of nonsense, including that when BTC prices were bouncing around $16k, you were suggesting that guys with 100 BTC (and presumably coiners with lower quantities of BTC) should sell their BTC and buy IBonds.

which would not be anywhere near what happened under Nixon Ford Carter then Reagan.

I am not sure how helpful such an analysis and comparison would be (or should be).. figure out bitcoin first, and figure out your own situation including how much that you want to allocate to bitcoin before getting overly worked up in terms of trying to figure out if there might be some value in holding fiat as an investment rather than merely as a way to manage your cashflow (and expenses).  I am not completely against comparing and contrasting traditional investment portfolios that might consider 40/60 allocations that are 40% bonds and 60% equities, so in that regard, if anyone feels compelled to continue to follow a traditional investment allocation, then they may well also need to consider how much to put into bitcoin.

If we have been in bitcoin for a while, we likely have long ago gotten away from a 40/60 allocation, and a lot of the getting away from trying to frame your investment in terms of traditional categories is to figure out what the fuck you are going to do with bitcoin, and I would imagine that you should be way more locked in than me because you have been in bitcoin for nearly 3 years longer than me, but part of the problem seems to be that you still want to start to analyze the situation from a traditional kind of framework when we are in a bitcoin thread.. so focus ur lil selfie... get you bitcoin plan together first, and if you want to dabble in that other stuff then so be it, I don't see any reason to spend a lot of time talking about it in these here parts.. especially pumping that bullshit as if we need to have it as part of the focus of any of our discussions in this thread.

But I am certain that unless they end the Ukraine 🇺🇦 Russia 🇷🇺 war rates will remain high.

Whats high 5-7% till Jan 2025 is likely.

Which means shit news for btc or shitcoins

Sure.. no problem.  The interest rates might remain in the 5-7% price arena for the coming 2 years or more.. so what? I imagine that part of the concern also remains to keep interest rates high in order to try to attempt to drive CPI down to 2% or maybe they will be willing to accept 5%.. and whether it is the Ukraine war or some other excuse, there is a battle to keep the dollar as the strongest of the currencies in order that other currencies are going to continue to have to try to keep up with the top of the fiats.. and the extent to which you should allow your bitcoin investments (management or approach) to materially be affected by interest rates should likely be a relatively minor consideration.  You have heard of the four year fractal, no?  You have also heard of exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles, right?  Anyhow, bitcoin might be manipulated down to some extent but it still remains the fastest horse in the race and likely will continue to be the fastest horse in the race for the next 10 to 20 years.. even though there are likely going to continue to be bumps in the road along the way, too.

Regarding shitcoins. .. who cares?  Fuck shitcoins...

[philipma1957]

@ jjg

your assessment that btc over the next 10-20 years is it will have the highest rate of return is something I am prepared for.

i am prepared for it to do other things such as

what gold did from 1992 to 2003

that is stay in slot 200-400 usd.

btc from dec 2022 to 2033 stays in a slot from 16k to 50k

my methods will allow me to survive that.

or go as high as 500k same time slot.

but remember i get coins at 50% with my mining deal.

there are not a lot of us doing this.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

fed rates are due end of march?

here is some nice fud about them.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/federal-reserve-policy-interest-rate-hike-markets-mohamed-elerian-2023-3

to paraphrase:
if we do 25% again and inflation gets worse fed looks stupid
if we go to .50% feds looks like they drop the ball with last move.

my thoughts are different:

I maintain that the 3.5 trillion dollar Long term care industry is not quite bailed out.

You don’t see much info on msm that they thrive with higher bond interest and fail with lower bond interest.

So I see that fud I linked as a distraction from-the stealth bailout of LTC companies.

I predict multiple increases of .25% this march and mid may.

when they fail to cut it with inflation a larger jump of .5% in late june.

all serving to tamp down btc and shitcoin numbers.

I am analyzing I bonds as I type.

[Patrol69]

Did you read any of it.

I really want to read his article. But if the shipping cost is reduced a bit, I will definitely order this book and read this article.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I considered telling your second point to JJG,

.. and I surely have my doubts about the supposed "downfall" of this thread.. blah blah blah due to the merit system or whatever...

Overall, we have pretty damned decent posts in this thread and even other parts of the forum since the implementation of the merit system.

I think you exaggerate a bit.  There is no downfall of this thread. But surely the shitposters have changed  (...and I mean the real ones, not the regular WO shitposting crowd)

I am not suggesting that this thread is experiencing a downfall.. I was describing what seems to be nutildah's ongoing characterization that troll/shills are taking over the thread... and if you had not notices, we have always had troll/shills and likely even worse prior to the merit system..

Back in the days they were at least reading the WO and you could have some pretty intense talks with them... fwiw to talk to Stolfi or roach  
... more like real human interaction .... and no, I don't necessarily mean humane  

Sure... some current trolls do not say anything .but we had those kinds of troll/shills in the past too...

Many farmers don't read anything, not even the replies to their own posts.  I have my doubts that all of these posts are done by humans.

Well yeah.. you are probably right. that some of them are not actual real world peeps.

And I think they don't have even 1% of the same AI bot quality as BTC Network's JJG-Bot^TM

It costs more for the "interactive" bots.

Surely there are likely flaws with the merit system, including that perhaps merit sources could be rotated more frequently, including but not limited to yours truly.. but who is going to determine those things?  Theymos?  Should theymos appoint a Czar to oversee the ways that merits are sent out in order to determine if there might be some better substitutions of merit source members' discretion?  

Is there some other meaningful resolution?  

I think it's good as it is with regards to merit sources.
However equipping farmers with merits might feel to some a bit like upvoting scammers.

I doubt that I am going to change my merit sending behaviors very much.. sure sometimes I will hesitate regarding whether or not to send. and then just do whatever I am going to do and then move on... .. sometimes mistakes might be made and other times there may well be acknowledgement that the poster is one of those non-interactive (or limited interactive) bots, but I still "discretionarily" decide to send a merit because I appreciate seeing whatever provided content in this thread, even though there is not even one original thought contained therein....even an extra spacing or a period.

Nutildah seems to believe that attempts at shaming might be helpful... or other somewhat meaningless whining and/or drama on the largely irrelevant topic might help bring better direction to the topic....

rrrrrrriiiiiiigggggghhhhhttttt    

No need to feel shameful  

I don't.  I was just characterizing what it has seemed to have been nutildah's ongoing seemingly holier than thou art efforts when he is between shilling his own NFTs and proclaiming them to be good for the ecosystem... .. people's gotta make a living, no?

But encouraging farmers' activity with merits will change the experience for WO readers...  and I just wouldn't want to see a future where half of my beloved WO consists of sowed farmer posts...

Bots are getting more difficult to identify.. and surely also text done by real humans sometimes is seeming to be increasingly "chatbot" or whatever assisted.. so maybe there could be some needs to mix some of the interactions into the real world where the real people actually do exist. and who are afraid (or really dumb) when it comes to talking about bitcoin-related issues.

[philipma1957]

Its a new world 🌍 I used to like to think I was typing to some fool sitting at pc.

A keyboard warrior
, but now who knows?






buddy= 14
phil =14

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Buddy and I are in a deadheat for today ,but I am going to see antman and the wasp. So I will be falling behind again.

I will be lucky if I claw back and beat him later tonight.





buddy= 15
phil =15

[JayJuanGee]

JJG misses the point entirely in favor of hammering another roundabout wall of text, which is unsurprising.

Its not about keeping the WO free of shitposts (an impossible and unnecessary task). Its about teaching the value of self-respect and encouraging others to better themselves rather than take the lazy route.

By rewarding merit farmers, you are teaching them that making a living through bullshitting and sucking up pays off. You actively contribute to their inability to grow as a human being.

Aren't you the greatest thing since sliced bread.   

I am not sure whether I completely agree with you at least in regards to there being any need to have many options for paying; however, I do agree that the facts of the ways of the world is that we already have a lot of options, and if we have a lot of options, in accordance with Gresham's law, we likely would want to spend our less valuable assets prior to spending our more valuable assets .. and each of us should be able to conclude that bitcoin is amongst the best of assets, if not the best asset, so we should not want to spend that one first - yet there could be situations in which we might want to spend and replace bitcoin or that we are already overly invested into bitcoin and in that regard, there is no problem to spend some of our bitcoin because we are relatively overallocated to it.

My reason is because a lot of countries do not have internet every where. I lot of places in Africa need offline money and sending transactions offline with Bitcoin is difficult. It can be done by giving someone a seed of a set amount but that is not ideal. We need different currencies for different things. Bitcoin is the king when it comes to global transactions but when it comes to local and quick transactions physical might be better not always but in certain times.

Fair enough.. I am not against physical cash or other physical ways of exchanging value (even barter).. and surely there are likely going to continue to develop more ways to stay pegged to bitcoin, but it could be on 2nd, 3rd or higher layers.. so the transaction might be within a system that is not really having to be connected to the web.. and might even have some physical components or cross chaining with some kind of other token.. whether tokens that are pegged or tokens that might end up causing fractional reserves if they get out of hand..

Yep.. for sure problems if you get old and you might not have adequately prepared .. and some older people might ONLY have a pension or social security and maybe their house and they might not have other assets and their pension and social security might not be adequate to cover their expenses, so they might have a dilemma about what to do about their living situation, and it is not necessarily a comfortable situation.. and surely there are some folks who might not even own any real estate, so they have even fewer options when their fixed incomes might be failing to keep up with their ongoing monthly expenses... so it may be too late for those people to invest in bitcoin and they should have had been investing in the past (and yeah, we did not really have bitcoin until recent times, either).

That is only if you have the liberty of a pension in the 1st place because many countries rely on their family and children to take care of them when they get older. Pensions are a western privilege but even then they are not good when you factor in inflation. I think a lot of people do not own real estate and are still paying off their mortgage up until they are 50-60.

Can't disagree with you about any of that.

hahahahaha

I have had similar experiences.  Talk them for a little bit, and they get less excited when it comes to figuring out how much they are able to comfortably invest... and the overwhelming majority fail/refuse to take any action.... so from my perspective, that's on them.  I did my part.

That is all we can do is our part but it is up to them if they drink from the water and take it further most people do not and they will forever be poor. I am not saying that Bitcoin will make them rich because a lot of people do not have the time or investment to profit off of it in a big way but you will be in a better place then you are now if you invest in Bitcoin even if it is only a few 1000 in a couple of years.

That's right.. there is no need to get to fuck you status from bitcoin in order to benefit from bitcoin.. but there is likely a need to either have a 4-10 year or longer holding ability or to just get lucky and to catch the wave at the right time if there ends up seeming to be an opportunity to cash out profits in a shorter term period because of an attempt to protect from a possible, potential (and dare we say inevitable?) down that follows up (especially extreme and prolonged up.. that does happen from time to time.. ).

sometimes I am mean about it, even in real life.. but i cannot help myself.. and if they are adamant and confrontational about their choices to invest in shitcoins, then likely we cannot end up in a battle.. we just have to agree to disagree and I will not concede that I think that they are doing anything worth while, except perhaps gambling... but whatever, I am around bitcoin and into bitcoin to invest, not gamble.

I have sat through many conversations about shitcoins with my friends and they always get angry when I call them shitcoins it is my way of coping because most of the shit they invest it is brain numbing.

Yes... it can sometimes be a bit too confrontational if someone continues to ask you to stop calling them shitcoins.. even though that is how you think about them.. but sometimes, there still can be some fruitfulness in the conversation to continue talking about it and agreeing (in the interim) to refrain from using the term shitcoin.. at least for the purpose of that particular conversation.

[philipma1957]

"Pensions are a western world concept."

Yeah they are. And if you manage to get a good one you become somewhat subservient to it.

Thus no F.U. status unless you have the money to fully replace it and do not care if they (the man) eliminates it.

[Lainta]

NEW: 🇺🇸 Silvergate gets dropped by Coinbase and might go out of business after being tied up in FTX fiasco ‼️

…Avoid this and just buy #Bitcoin     🙌

https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1631322159757795329?t=l1_C6b0RBXXk3nEs-8q6AA&s=19

[JayJuanGee]

@ jjg
your assessment that btc over the next 10-20 years is it will have the highest rate of return is something I am prepared for.

i am prepared for it to do other things such as

what gold did from 1992 to 2003

that is stay in slot 200-400 usd.

btc from dec 2022 to 2033 stays in a slot from 16k to 50k

my methods will allow me to survive that.

or go as high as 500k same time slot.

but remember i get coins at 50% with my mining deal.

there are not a lot of us doing this.

Well?  I wonder whether bitcoin adoption will increase by 2033? 

What are we starting with?

less than 1% of the world's population (1% is around 80 million)?  there are other kinds of ways of measuring adoption?  What about companies and countries getting into bitcoin?  Are they going to be purged in order to end up experiencing a net gain or net loss in the various bitcoin network effects?  and even from those who are already adopted are they sufficiently adopted, or low coiners?  Surely some are hoarders. such as Saylor who is overly represented in terms of the quantity of BTC that he holds and how much he might want to continue to get in the coming 10 years - or will he suffer net losses in the quantities of his coins respective to his current holdings which I believe is currently around 132,500 coins or something like that.  Anyone else trying to do a saylor (and being successful at it?).

Yes, we need to prepare for all scenarios, and to me it sounds as if you are cheerleading a $16k to $50k scenario as if it were a likely scenario.  I am personally prepared because i am going to continue to do whatever I do.. which is live my life and to spend in accordance to my budget which is already quite a bit higher than my cost of living and/or my anticipated cost of living... so personally, I am not really worried about a possible ranging scenario as you describe, even though it seems to be pretty low on the likelihood scale, at least from my current perspective.

By the way, a doubling of the value of an asset in 10 years brings us around the average of what the stock market had done historically, so if we are looking at bitcoin is it performing the same as the stock market?  underperforming it?  or over performing it?  What are our other allocations and/or cashflow sources?  Might some of our other investment and cashflow sources dry up?  sure it is possible, but maybe we would not create a base case around something that we are prepared for.. just in case more bearish scenarios might end up playing out.. in the next 10 years or whatever other period we choose to try to prognosticate (and prepare for).

[cygan]