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Author Topic: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]  (Read 855153 times)
Grinder
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August 19, 2013, 06:42:15 AM
 #761

The most accurate way to plot the variance would be to take daily weighted price.  Choosing the smoothed data is much better than plotting variations on the minute by minute or hour by hour. 
No, it's just different. If you want to do arbitrage trading then tracking second to second variation will give you the best result.
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August 19, 2013, 06:42:26 AM
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WHOA! The bank run is starting!
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August 19, 2013, 07:05:10 AM
 #763

The most accurate way to plot the variance would be to take daily weighted price.  Choosing the smoothed data is much better than plotting variations on the minute by minute or hour by hour. 
No, it's just different. If you want to do arbitrage trading then tracking second to second variation will give you the best result.

The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread).  So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.
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August 19, 2013, 07:17:50 AM
 #764

The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist!
Oh, yes.  Some people are, but not enough.  Check JPY volume.  Domestic JPY withdrawal is next day, but SWIFT transfer to other exchanges take some time.  Looks like between 50k and 100k USD are transferred via JPY every day.

Sjå https://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
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August 19, 2013, 07:24:27 AM
 #765

The most accurate way to plot the variance would be to take daily weighted price.  Choosing the smoothed data is much better than plotting variations on the minute by minute or hour by hour. 
No, it's just different. If you want to do arbitrage trading then tracking second to second variation will give you the best result.

The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread).  So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.

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August 19, 2013, 07:44:55 AM
 #766

I just don't understand why more people aren't able to get domestic japanese accounts. If I had a japanese account i would be moving far more than 50-100k a day ...

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August 19, 2013, 07:55:01 AM
 #767

Quote from: zeroblock link=topic=179586.msg2961957#msg2961957

The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread).  So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.

If no one is doing arbitrage trade, prices on other exchanges wont be following the same upward (and even downward) trend as gox.

Let's assume that the people that are willing to suffer lost and buy coins on mtgox at inflated price are in need of their cash (instead of waiting for 8-12 weeks to get the money via the withdrawal queue)

If many such panic gox buyers are now selling their coins or other exchanges, the proper market behavior we should see is that other exchanges price will go down -- not staying stable, nor increase in price.

The reality:

*  Arbitrage trade is happening
*  More panic buyers than arbitrage traders
*  Very few Japanese investors are aware of the current opportunities to take advantage of it yet -- but this is changing, as can be seen as the raising number of JPY on mtgox recently.




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August 19, 2013, 08:00:52 AM
 #768

Quote from: zeroblock link=topic=179586.msg2961957#msg2961957

The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread).  So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.

If no one is doing arbitrage trade, prices on other exchanges wont be following the same upward (and even downward) trend as gox.

Let's assume that the people that are willing to suffer lost and buy coins on mtgox at inflated price are in need of their cash (instead of waiting for 8-12 weeks to get the money via the withdrawal queue)

If many such panic gox buyers are now selling their coins or other exchanges, the proper market behavior we should see is that other exchanges price will go down -- not staying stable, nor increase in price.

The reality:

*  Arbitrage trade is happening
*  More panic buyers than arbitrage traders
*  Very few Japanese investors are aware of the current opportunities to take advantage of it yet -- but this is changing, as can be seen as the raising number of JPY on mtgox recently.


I think this is a pretty good analysis. If this is true, and the 10 swift wire transfer limit is also true, then this should also cause the queue to shorten / quicken, as people cancel their withdrawals and buy bitcoin instead.
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August 19, 2013, 08:09:11 AM
 #769

*  Very few Japanese investors are aware of the current opportunities to take advantage of it yet -- but this is changing, as can be seen as the raising number of JPY on mtgox recently.
Looks like this is changing.  BTC/JPY volume at MtGox last 24h is more than 1/4 of BTC/USD volume at Bitstamp, and rivals BTC/USD volume at BTC-E.  Not all of this is going to withdrawal of course, but I assume a large part of it is.  At 14% price difference, some are looking at a huge profit.  Probably still not enough to equalize the prices, but perhaps enough to reduce the difference somewhat.

Sjå https://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
Warning: "Bitcoin" XT, Classic, Unlimited and the likes are scams. Don't use them, and don't listen to their shills.
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August 19, 2013, 08:10:59 AM
 #770

Quote from: zeroblock link=topic=179586.msg2961957#msg2961957

The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread).  So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.

If no one is doing arbitrage trade, prices on other exchanges wont be following the same upward (and even downward) trend as gox.

Let's assume that the people that are willing to suffer lost and buy coins on mtgox at inflated price are in need of their cash (instead of waiting for 8-12 weeks to get the money via the withdrawal queue)

If many such panic gox buyers are now selling their coins or other exchanges, the proper market behavior we should see is that other exchanges price will go down -- not staying stable, nor increase in price.

The reality:

*  Arbitrage trade is happening
*  More panic buyers than arbitrage traders
*  Very few Japanese investors are aware of the current opportunities to take advantage of it yet -- but this is changing, as can be seen as the raising number of JPY on mtgox recently.


I think this is a pretty good analysis. If this is true, and the 10 swift wire transfer limit is also true, then this should also cause the queue to shorten / quicken, as people cancel their withdrawals and buy bitcoin instead.

No, it is a very poor analysis.  Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds.  With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months!  The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it.  The arb exists because it can't be realized.  

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August 19, 2013, 08:20:03 AM
 #771

where do you see increase in BTC/JPY volume?
Can anyone confirm receiving any cash form mt.gox last weeks?

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August 19, 2013, 08:24:14 AM
 #772

No, it is a very poor analysis.  Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds.  With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months!  The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it.  The arb exists because it can't be realized.  

hahahaha
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August 19, 2013, 08:35:58 AM
 #773

No, it is a very poor analysis.  Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds.  With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months!  The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it.  The arb exists because it can't be realized.  

Microsecond arbitrage opportunity is only true in very mature market, such as Forex.  And even that, there are ample arbitrage opportunities in that market if you talked to the experience forex traders.

But this is not true for the Bitcoin market because it is full of novice armchair investors (like zeroblock) that can only TALK in forum without taking any ACTION to exploit the situation.  



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August 19, 2013, 08:57:47 AM
 #774

The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread).  So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.
You can do arbitrage trading between exchanges without actually moving any funds. It won't be possible to take advantage of the current crazy MtGox situation, but as long there are only fluctuations around a fairly fixed spread you can buy on one exchange and sell on the other when the difference is one way, and trade the opposite way when the difference switches.
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August 19, 2013, 09:01:00 AM
 #775

No, it is a very poor analysis.  Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds.  With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months!  The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it.  The arb exists because it can't be realized.  
Microsecond arbitrage opportunity is only true in very mature market, such as Forex.  And even that, there are ample arbitrage opportunities in that market if you talked to the experience forex traders.

But this is not true for the Bitcoin market because it is full of novice armchair investors (like zeroblock) that can only TALK in forum without taking any ACTION to exploit the situation.
+1.  It is not like 50% or more arbitrage opportunities never existed before in Bitcoin.  I have exploited quite a few, and two days of SEPA transfer time has generally not been a hinder to exploitation.  Not at this volume, of course.  5% has been normal for a long time between BTC-E and more trusted exchanges.  >3% between BTC-E and Bitstamp now, for example.

Sjå https://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
Warning: "Bitcoin" XT, Classic, Unlimited and the likes are scams. Don't use them, and don't listen to their shills.
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August 19, 2013, 09:05:11 AM
 #776

No, it is a very poor analysis.  Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds.  With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months!  The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it.  The arb exists because it can't be realized.  
Microsecond arbitrage opportunity is only true in very mature market, such as Forex.  And even that, there are ample arbitrage opportunities in that market if you talked to the experience forex traders.

But this is not true for the Bitcoin market because it is full of novice armchair investors (like zeroblock) that can only TALK in forum without taking any ACTION to exploit the situation.
+1.  It is not like 50% or more arbitrage opportunities never existed before in Bitcoin.  I have exploited quite a few, and two days of SEPA transfer time has generally not been a hinder to exploitation.  Not at this volume, of course.  5% has been normal for a long time between BTC-E and more trusted exchanges.  >3% between BTC-E and Bitstamp now, for example.

I absolutely agree.  But those either existed for a short period of time, or had a limited spread.  We are talking about a sustained 10% spread for 7+ days! And a sustained spread of over 5% for a month!
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August 19, 2013, 10:14:44 AM
 #777

+1.  It is not like 50% or more arbitrage opportunities never existed before in Bitcoin.  I have exploited quite a few, and two days of SEPA transfer time has generally not been a hinder to exploitation.  Not at this volume, of course.  5% has been normal for a long time between BTC-E and more trusted exchanges.  >3% between BTC-E and Bitstamp now, for example.
I absolutely agree.  But those either existed for a short period of time, or had a limited spread.  We are talking about a sustained 10% spread for 7+ days! And a sustained spread of over 5% for a month!
True, but BTC-E has been 5% or more below other exchanges for months in the past.  Only broken by sudden rallies or crashes.  The large spread between MtGox and a few other exchanges today is due to panic, and isn't going to last.  Just have a glance at the JPY volume today.  Those money will be at other exchanges in four days.  Exploit the spread while it is still possible.

Sjå https://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
Warning: "Bitcoin" XT, Classic, Unlimited and the likes are scams. Don't use them, and don't listen to their shills.
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August 19, 2013, 10:41:12 AM
 #778

+1.  It is not like 50% or more arbitrage opportunities never existed before in Bitcoin.  I have exploited quite a few, and two days of SEPA transfer time has generally not been a hinder to exploitation.  Not at this volume, of course.  5% has been normal for a long time between BTC-E and more trusted exchanges.  >3% between BTC-E and Bitstamp now, for example.
I absolutely agree.  But those either existed for a short period of time, or had a limited spread.  We are talking about a sustained 10% spread for 7+ days! And a sustained spread of over 5% for a month!
True, but BTC-E has been 5% or more below other exchanges for months in the past.  Only broken by sudden rallies or crashes.  The large spread between MtGox and a few other exchanges today is due to panic, and isn't going to last.  Just have a glance at the JPY volume today.  Those money will be at other exchanges in four days.  Exploit the spread while it is still possible.


This is because it was difficult to deposit at btc-e (or costly).

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August 19, 2013, 11:51:26 AM
 #779

This is because it was difficult to deposit at btc-e (or costly).
It is even more costly to withdraw from BTC-E.  This is mostly about trust.

13:49 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 14.0344717342 %.

Lowering a bit.  Rally at MtGox, and Bitstamp follows as usual.  Just lags a bit behind.  Expect the difference to fall more as it catches up and the rally ends at MtGox.

Sjå https://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
Warning: "Bitcoin" XT, Classic, Unlimited and the likes are scams. Don't use them, and don't listen to their shills.
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August 19, 2013, 12:15:35 PM
 #780

If you want to get some perspective on how large of a discrepancy 20% is, just take a look at the variance chart. I plotted the average daily value of Gox vs Bitstamp.  But for the price movement within the last 12 hrs, I picked a time period early in the morning where the discrepancy was highest.  Not only did the variance hit a record high of 14.68% Sunday (full day weighted average price), but it exploded through that to 20%. 

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