(Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed)

[fible1]

Just caught up with the thread: Watching the discussion with interest .

Pablo.

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[Gentle_bend]

Am I the only one having serious problems with Gox...?
Butter should buy long time ago and instead I just sow some strange orders for 10k BTC for the price of €0  
Now I'm trying to trade manually on their webpage but it seems I can't! I can't even cancel these orders...
I stopped bot but maybe I have to deactivate it completely...?

Ok, I deleted API used by Butter from Gox and I was able to delete the orders. EDIT: NOPE, STILL THERE. Nevertheless it's abundance of '502 Bad Gateway' there whatever one one to do.....
After removing that API I also don't see any graphs in Butter now, non of the exchanges load. Is something wrong with my computer/account or is it something bigger?

[velacreations]

I'm seeing on reddit, people are saying MtGox is down or has serious lag, that might be related to your issue.

[MicroFi]

Am I the only one having serious problems with Gox...?
Butter should buy long time ago and instead I just sow some strange orders for 10k BTC for the price of €0  
Now I'm trying to trade manually on their webpage but it seems I can't! I can't even cancel these orders...
I stopped bot but maybe I have to deactivate it completely...?

Ok, I deleted API used by Butter from Gox and I was able to delete the orders. EDIT: NOPE, STILL THERE. Nevertheless it's abundance of '502 Bad Gateway' there whatever one one to do.....
After removing that API I also don't see any graphs in Butter now, non of the exchanges load. Is something wrong with my computer/account or is it something bigger?

Gox has been down since about 2:30hrs now.

[seanrarey]

I am interested in Beta testing as well Pablo.  Am able to run on multiple machines to run a program through it's paces.

[Narken]

I've been trying Butterbot, and although it's an interesting concept, the truth is that you are clearly loosing money.

I tried a great amount of different settings (from the ones suggested by the creators to others) and in every case, you cannot find any settings that simply beat leaving the BTCs alone and capitalizing. You are always loosing money. If the creators of ButterBot put an option to see the profit in BTC instead of USD you could see that the number of BTCs using this algorithm - in every case - it's reducing.

Put the monthly amount you pay for the software on top of that and you are clearly loosing quite a big sum of money by using it.

I actually agree with you but I also disagree with you.

I was discussing this very point with my family last night. If you think about the market in terms of a purely vertical increase. Then the market probably moves into the positive 3 or 4 times what it does when using an ema bot.

For example, if you counted each price rise over a single day and added them all up commulatively you'd see it probably moved 200 dollars in equivalent value even if the price only increased $20 on that day. (as well as decreasing in value by a similar figure)

An ema bot might require a sacrifice of 30% on an upward trend to be sacrificed in order to detect a trend. The same is true on the down turn. Lets say a (plucked out of thin air) figure of 60% potential profit is lost by waiting until a trend actually exists. About 30% is your only real profit.

So even if the market only went up 20$ but vertically stacked clocked in at 200$ vertical cummulative climb at the days end. From the start of the day till the end, your ema bot might have actually made you:

60% or 120$ is lost in detecting a trend. While 80$ might be potential profit.

==========================

The only difference with buy and hold strategies is that you have to assume the value will only go up. It may go down and you go bust. (While using a bot protects you from down turns, holding does not, unless you exit the market manually)

Even if the commulative dollar amount for the total rise in a 24 hour period is 200$, in a buy and hold strategy it might only net you 20$ at the end of the day. It is technically static and doesn't take any opportunities of market corrections and repeated rises in those 24 hours that eventually end in a 20$ gain at the end of the day.

So when someone argues that a straight forward buy and hold strategy is best, they are basically trying to debate that the bot will mess up enough [in detecting trends] that overall the (bot + trend) strategy will make enough bad calls that it does worse than a simple buy and hold.

It's like saying:

"So what if your bot made 80$ today V.S. my buy and hold strategy and profit of 20$? Your bot will eventually make enough "bad calls" that your 80$ will actually turn out to be 10$. (which is true, as most bots lose just as much as they gain. Pablo mentioned that 70% will be losing trades while 30% will be gaining with this ema bot.)

The only perfect bot is the one that makes the right decision every time and has "zero loss" for trend detection. (it doesn't exist)
A perfect bot, would earn 200$ on a single day on a 20$ average rise. Not even human traders are that good. No where even close or that lucky.
Think about how long it takes butter (or how many dollars each way) it loses as it waits to make sure a trend is building.

Butter loses quite it bit getting you out of a crash dive as the ema signals take some time after the drop. Quite a bit is lost getting you into an upward trend as well.
But a buy and hold strategy only nets you the average rise of that day.

===========================

It should be a toss up as to whom will do better.
If the market went from 100$ to 400$ over a week, then the buy and hold speculator will only ever make (at best) 300$ with a simple buy and hold.

If the bot user using ema has extremely efficient settings, then they might make well over 300$. Or if they have inappropriate settings they might make a hell of lot less than 300$. The bot user also has to contend with the notion that not all upward trends will be clear enough when using an ema system. So often you won't even make the 300$.

If anyone tallies up all the commulative price rises over the last month you'd probably find it has gone up more than 10,000$ vertically. Though most of our bots are at best doing a fraction of 300$ in profits.

We should all share our settings and work out what is the most efficient path (not the settings themselves) to figuring out what settings are optimum in different scenarios.

We need to pry open EMA for example and really understand deep down what makes it tick. Why certain setting in one particular week give spectacular returns and why it doesn't work as well in another week with a different scenario. At the moment we are all mostly using the "Jack of all Trades" strategy. Which is finding one setting that does "okay" in most scenarios.

I think it would be "profitable" to find settings that detect down trends quickly and adjust our settings as necessary throughout the day. Like changing settings based on the market conditions. (I can hear Pablo just telling us not to do that, that a jack of all trades is best)  

I tend to agree with op on this post, most trade to increase BTC and not $, so having profit/loss in $ makes no sense currently(IMHO).
We (read most) assume that BTC will reach the for the moon more or less and most would like to buy and hold while still growing their BTC portfolio in crash/rise scenarios by doing trading.

Personally I don't care about potential profit in $, I want to see profit in BTC (if there is any with this bot) as a way to grow my BTC portfolio.
If I want to cash out to $ I will do it by hand when needed.

Also I like like to see any setting that would yield a profit in BTC
On all the calculations / back testing I've been so far, buy and hold would yield a higher profit, but fell free to prove me wrong through

[fible1]

Could anyone having the email issue (receiving many emails for a single trade) please send me their logs? We want to fix that as soon as possible but we need the logs of people experiencing the issue.

It's Pablo@Butter-Bot.com

This is the info we need:

1. Go into the "manage extensions" page.
2. Enable "developer" mode by checking the "developer" box in the upper tool bar.
3. Go to the extension and click on the "generated_background_page.html" link.
4. When the new window opens, choose the "console tab"
5. Copy and paste the info there to pastebin.com as close to the time of your issue as possible and send it to me.

And:

1. In the developer tools open the network tab. 
2. If it's empty, press F5 to reload the extension and wait a few minutes until there are some requests listed. 
3 Then right-click the list in the left pane and select
"Save as HAR with content".

Please scan the file and remove your API Key from the text and send it to us.

This will help us resolve the issue much more quickly. 

Pablo.

[velacreations]

Also I like like to see any setting that would yield a profit in BTC
On all the calculations / back testing I've been so far, buy and hold would yield a higher profit, but fell free to prove me wrong through

I thought that at first, too.  But, I started looking at longer timelines that included more than just big increases, and the picture changes in favor of this vs B&H.

6 months ago, $1000 bought you 8.85 bitcoins.  Those are worth about ~$2830  today.
running the bot with small adjustments, you get a value of $3418, or 10.7 btc.

Here's my settings for the same time period:



It would help to see total btc in the ledger, as well

[Narken]

Also I like like to see any setting that would yield a profit in BTC
On all the calculations / back testing I've been so far, buy and hold would yield a higher profit, but fell free to prove me wrong through

I thought that at first, too.  But, I started looking at longer timelines that included more than just big increases, and the picture changes in favor of this vs B&H.

6 months ago, $1000 bought you 8.85 bitcoins.  Those are worth about ~$2830  today.
running the bot with small adjustments, you get a value of $3418, or 10.7 btc.

Here's my settings for the same time period:



It would help to see total btc in the ledger, as well

So an actual potential profit on 21% (BTC) over the past 6 months

And that profit is only on this weekends crash or ?

Anyway you proved me wrong then, but it's not the profit figures the sales letter is claiming nevertheless

[velacreations]

So an actual potential profit on 21% (BTC) over the past 6 months

And that profit is only on this weekends crash or ?

Anyway you proved me wrong then, but it's not the profit figures the sales letter is claiming nevertheless

yeah, basic settings, if you go back a year, it's even more.
I've seen it back test 1 yr at 8500%.

I'm just saying, if you back test for a month, you don't get the whole picture. 

[Narken]

So an actual potential profit on 21% (BTC) over the past 6 months

And that profit is only on this weekends crash or ?

Anyway you proved me wrong then, but it's not the profit figures the sales letter is claiming nevertheless

yeah, basic settings, if you go back a year, it's even more.
I've seen it back test 1 yr at 8500%.

I'm just saying, if you back test for a month, you don't get the whole picture. 

Please show the settings for 8500% profit over 1 year

Little calculation:

Backtesting 1 year with Gox I hit max around 3550% claimed profit

So buying for $1000 BTC @ $10.8 1 year ago = 92,6 BTC

Current value of 92.6 btc today if I just kept them safe (370) = $34259

Butterbot results after 1 year $35500 = 95,95 BTC

Actual profit in BTC after 1 year after using BB = 3,346 BTC = $1240 = 124% in profit

Still a nice profit compared to buy and hold, but long away from claimed profit on buttterbot homepage (3464% profit over the last two years claimed on the on site)

So Correct actual profit in BTC over past year would be around 120% compared to just buy and hold

[bassclef]

One must subtract the price appreciation of bitcoin itself from the numbers that back testing gives to get a more realistic view of potential profits. I agree that it's a very close call versus buy and hold.

[fible1]

One must subtract the price appreciation of bitcoin itself from the numbers that back testing gives to get a more realistic view of potential profits. I agree that it's a very close call versus buy and hold.

Friends,
  We just released a fix via Mass Mail for the email issue labeled 2.4.1

I want to personally apologize for the inconveniences these past two days, we have taken strong measures to prevent this from recurring in the future.

Please do not hesitate to let me know if anyone needs anything at all .

Pablo.

[PuertoLibre]

One must subtract the price appreciation of bitcoin itself from the numbers that back testing gives to get a more realistic view of potential profits. I agree that it's a very close call versus buy and hold.

Friends,
  We just released a fix via Mass Mail for the email issue labeled 2.4.1

I want to personally apologize for the inconveniences these past two days, we have taken strong measures to prevent this from recurring in the future.

Please do not hesitate to let me know if anyone needs anything at all .

Pablo.

Oops, I just noticed the bug creeping up again and I sent you a PM (v2.4) with the console logs and relevant settings. No email was dispatched during the buy event.

[seanrarey]

Also I like like to see any setting that would yield a profit in BTC
On all the calculations / back testing I've been so far, buy and hold would yield a higher profit, but fell free to prove me wrong through

I thought that at first, too.  But, I started looking at longer timelines that included more than just big increases, and the picture changes in favor of this vs B&H.

6 months ago, $1000 bought you 8.85 bitcoins.  Those are worth about ~$2830  today.
running the bot with small adjustments, you get a value of $3418, or 10.7 btc.

It would help to see total btc in the ledger, as well

I tire of responding to that argument, so I was waiting for someone else to do it.  Thanks.  

An easy test folks is this:

Put 1 BTC in a wallet.

Put 1 BTC in a trade account (preferably BTCe lol) and let Butter manage it with reasonable settings.

In 6 months, revisit.

You should still have 1 BTC in the wallet.  I am betting it will be worth a lot more then when you put it in there.

If trade history holds, you should have more then 1 BTC in your trade account.  Probably a lot more.  And yes, it will be worth more in USD then the 1BTC in the wallet.

This forum has not been too bad, but some forums (mining is really bad) are just filled with trolls trying to confuse.

I would hope that this forum would not fall into the endless debates and opinions, when the math is really too simple to even go there.

As with any responsible investing and trading, do your homework, keep records, and ignore the trolls that will argue for days on end that 1. bots drive the market (not the other way around), 2. 100 $1 trades rack up less fees then a $100 trade (you would be amazed at how vehemently they will argue this) and 3. a Bitcoin purchased from them and held is somehow worth more then one you mined or traded for.

[velacreations]

Please show the settings for 8500% profit over 1 year

here's one set that comes close, you can fine tune it to get higher:

[velacreations]

a question, cause I'm a super newbie, the value in the table below the test, the very last line is often in the past (as with mine posted above), does the profit value count just realized profit to that point?

like in my example above, it shows a buy @309 = 8009, right?  But, if btc current value is $320, there is unrealized profit to consider as well, right?  So the assumed actual value would be higher (25.9 btc @$320 =$8294).

In other words, when comparing to buy and hold, buy and hold value must stop at the last action of the backtest to be equal.
Am I right, or does the profit figure consider latest price?

[Narken]

Also I like like to see any setting that would yield a profit in BTC
On all the calculations / back testing I've been so far, buy and hold would yield a higher profit, but fell free to prove me wrong through

I thought that at first, too.  But, I started looking at longer timelines that included more than just big increases, and the picture changes in favor of this vs B&H.

6 months ago, $1000 bought you 8.85 bitcoins.  Those are worth about ~$2830  today.
running the bot with small adjustments, you get a value of $3418, or 10.7 btc.

It would help to see total btc in the ledger, as well

I tire of responding to that argument, so I was waiting for someone else to do it.  Thanks.  

An easy test folks is this:

Put 1 BTC in a wallet.

Put 1 BTC in a trade account (preferably BTCe lol) and let Butter manage it with reasonable settings.

In 6 months, revisit.

You should still have 1 BTC in the wallet.  I am betting it will be worth a lot more then when you put it in there.

If trade history holds, you should have more then 1 BTC in your trade account.  Probably a lot more.  And yes, it will be worth more in USD then the 1BTC in the wallet.

This forum has not been too bad, but some forums (mining is really bad) are just filled with trolls trying to confuse.

I would hope that this forum would not fall into the endless debates and opinions, when the math is really too simple to even go there.

As with any responsible investing and trading, do your homework, keep records, and ignore the trolls that will argue for days on end that 1. bots drive the market (not the other way around), 2. 100 $1 trades rack up less fees then a $100 trade (you would be amazed at how vehemently they will argue this) and 3. a Bitcoin purchased from them and held is somehow worth more then one you mined or traded for.

No offense, but you seem to be the one trolling and confused in this case :-)

The numbers for the past 2 years are available when backlog testing. Do the math yourself and calculate your BTC gain in %

Past 6 months seems to yield a ~ 20-25 % increase in BTC compared to starting point.
That 1 BTC you set aside for trading would increase to 1.20 BTC (with some luck and the right settings) based on last 6 months trading history
(compared to buy and hold)

Sure it's a nice gain, 20% over 6 months is epic compared to current bank rates atm, but please dont confuse people by telling them they will see XXX % profit when it's not true

Over and out, have fun

[velacreations]

Do the math yourself and calculate your BTC gain in %

I'm not trying to argue, but my example above for 1 yr had 25.9 btc vs 9.26 B&H.  That's like a 178% difference.  
To me, that's significant, if it can be replicated (or even approached).

I do think that during a rise, the bot doesn't help you, but during a crash, it seems to help.  Within the last yr, we've had some decent downturns, but 6 months back, not so many.  I would have a lot more btc today if I could have played the April volatility better than B&H (my strategy during that time).

The profit figures on the site are realized gains compared to starting income, not compared to B&H. I'd love to put together a catalog of settings/configurations that outperformed B&H for the last year.  Anyone want to compare settings?

[jbssm]

Also I like like to see any setting that would yield a profit in BTC
On all the calculations / back testing I've been so far, buy and hold would yield a higher profit, but fell free to prove me wrong through

I thought that at first, too.  But, I started looking at longer timelines that included more than just big increases, and the picture changes in favor of this vs B&H.

6 months ago, $1000 bought you 8.85 bitcoins.  Those are worth about ~$2830  today.
running the bot with small adjustments, you get a value of $3418, or 10.7 btc.

It would help to see total btc in the ledger, as well

I tire of responding to that argument, so I was waiting for someone else to do it.  Thanks.  

An easy test folks is this:

Put 1 BTC in a wallet.

Put 1 BTC in a trade account (preferably BTCe lol) and let Butter manage it with reasonable settings.

In 6 months, revisit.

You should still have 1 BTC in the wallet.  I am betting it will be worth a lot more then when you put it in there.

If trade history holds, you should have more then 1 BTC in your trade account.  Probably a lot more.  And yes, it will be worth more in USD then the 1BTC in the wallet.

This forum has not been too bad, but some forums (mining is really bad) are just filled with trolls trying to confuse.

I would hope that this forum would not fall into the endless debates and opinions, when the math is really too simple to even go there.

As with any responsible investing and trading, do your homework, keep records, and ignore the trolls that will argue for days on end that 1. bots drive the market (not the other way around), 2. 100 $1 trades rack up less fees then a $100 trade (you would be amazed at how vehemently they will argue this) and 3. a Bitcoin purchased from them and held is somehow worth more then one you mined or traded for.

No offense, but you seem to be the one trolling and confused in this case :-)

The numbers for the past 2 years are available when backlog testing. Do the math yourself and calculate your BTC gain in %

Past 6 months seems to yield a ~ 20-25 % increase in BTC compared to starting point.
That 1 BTC you set aside for trading would increase to 1.20 BTC (with some luck and the right settings) based on last 6 months trading history
(compared to buy and hold)

Sure it's a nice gain, 20% over 6 months is epic compared to current bank rates atm, but please dont confuse people by telling them they will see XXX % profit when it's not true

Over and out, have fun

I think it's event a bit worst than that.

The algorithm uses an MA that is much shorter than any testing period. As such it's irrelevant if you are using test data for 1 month/1 year/etc, if it works in one time frame it's supposed to work in all time frames.
Sure, you can fine tune some past data to give profit, but that's already wrong by itself... worst, when even by fine tuning the past data you cannot provide some settings that actually work for different time frames, then it's because that thing doesn't exist, at least not with the algorithms used by this bot.

This bot may be a good thing in case of a market crash in order to cut your losses... but in an upward market - and I think most of the bitcoin adopters believe that is the tendency of the market - this bot will make loose part of your BTC. If you so adamantly state otherwise, then actually show some settings that at least work for most of the time frames.