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Author Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread  (Read 808627 times)
Rival
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August 07, 2013, 06:14:33 PM
 #2141

TAT shares paid out promptly as usual. Good job!
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I HATE TABLES I HATE TABLES I HA(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻ TABLES I HATE TABLES I HATE TABLES
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August 07, 2013, 07:04:44 PM
 #2142

TAT shares paid out promptly as usual. Good job!

Yes, thank you TAT!
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August 07, 2013, 09:12:16 PM
 #2143

Seeing as this is the speculation thread but I do not really see any speculation about the price, are there are opinions on why share price is dropping for the past few weeks? Is it other IPO's causing the very limited supply of BTC to move out of AsicMiner and into alternative companies, chasing more gains? Has faith been lost in AsicMiner, in part due to Freidcat seemingly releasing information on Chinese forums, most of which us non Mandarin/Cantonese speakers can't find or read? I personally think it is all of the above.
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August 07, 2013, 09:21:12 PM
 #2144

I'll throw in a crazy speculation... hey, wouldn't it be crazy if ASICMiner ran a steady business for the next 10 years? Everyone here casually assumes, understandably, that the risk is high and everything that exists today could be gone in a year or two, but what if it didn't? Can you imagine collecting 10 years of dividends from ASICMiner if they held onto 10% of the hashrate? What if bitcoins are worth a $10,000 USD each? That would be crazy. Not impossible though... consider that although many competitors are emerging, electricity and labor is still (almost) the cheapest in China. After everyone gets to the 15nm process (or whatever), the price of electricity/labor/taxes will pretty much determine who the major players are.

There, that's some pie-in-the-sky speculation for you.
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August 07, 2013, 10:22:04 PM
 #2145

Again, the BTCUSD exchange rate is completely irrelevant if you calculate share price / dividends, since you would make theoretical gains even just holding BTC.
How many times will I have to repeat that? Will people never learn?
Shouldn't be difficult...


“The Alydian team has worked diligently over the past year and we are excited to be the first in this industry to offer multi-terahash-speed turnkey mining systems available for delivery this month,” said Vessenes.

Sounds like a bigger unicorn has been imagined into existence. I wonder where these magic beans... I mean CHIPS are coming from?
I misread "turkey".

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August 07, 2013, 11:13:25 PM
 #2146

Again, the BTCUSD exchange rate is completely irrelevant if you calculate share price / dividends, since you would make theoretical gains even just holding BTC.
How many times will I have to repeat that? Will people never learn?
Shouldn't be difficult...

Well, I wouldn't say completely irrelevant.  Since we're speculating long term here, a scenario where BTC/fiat begins a decline towards zero will probably see share prices of all these mining outfits also follow towards zero (especially if a decline continued after the next block reward halving).  In this scenario, it's likely some kind of competitor to bitcoin itself overtakes bitcoin, uses a different method that can't use the bitcoin ASICs, and makes a whole lot of of these chips just landfill.  This will likely happen if demand for bitcoin falls enough so that they don't really have value and you're spending 10,000BTC on a pizza again while only needing CPU mining.

I think much of the current bitcoin value is speculation that the BTC/fiat ratio will continue to rise in the future.

But I'm no expert, I just enjoy the speculating and the discussions.

This is quite intuitive, but what about the reverse scenario where the BTC price climbs by a few orders of magnitude? I have a hard time imagining what effect that would have on BTC denominated stock prices for mining companies. It can't have NO effect...
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August 07, 2013, 11:13:35 PM
 #2147

Again, the BTCUSD exchange rate is completely irrelevant if you calculate share price / dividends, since you would make theoretical gains even just holding BTC.
How many times will I have to repeat that? Will people never learn?
Shouldn't be difficult...

Well, I wouldn't say completely irrelevant.  Since we're speculating long term here, a scenario where BTC/fiat begins a decline towards zero
Even in that case, it does not matter if you just hold BTC or if you hold BTC-denominated shares: it goes to 0 either case.

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August 07, 2013, 11:14:51 PM
 #2148

This is quite intuitive, but what about the reverse scenario where the BTC price climbs by a few orders of magnitude? I have a hard time imagining what effect that would have on BTC denominated stock prices for mining companies. It can't have NO effect...
Ok I'm not saying it doesn't have effects, I'm trying to say that USD exchange rate appreciation or depreciation shouldn't be taken into account into determining how much you gained or lost.
Because you would have gained or lost the exact same % if you just hold the BTC without investing them.

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August 08, 2013, 06:54:44 AM
 #2149

I think the main reason why the share is tanking is because there are 13 500 share stuck into BitFunder.
For the last 10+ days I've been told there is still a huge mess with Friedcat accounting (him crediting the wrong people with shares) and that's why DeadTerra has halted all shares transfer in/out while this is solved.

To be honest, I am not surprised, initially I had clearly asked my share to be moved to Deadterra on BitFunder but they ended up to Burnside at BTCT.co.

This is the reason colored coin or openTransaction should have been used for managing shares transfers !!!
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August 08, 2013, 07:34:49 AM
 #2150

I think the main reason why the share is tanking is because there are 13 500 share stuck into BitFunder.
For the last 10+ days I've been told there is still a huge mess with Friedcat accounting (him crediting the wrong people with shares) and that's why DeadTerra has halted all shares transfer in/out while this is solved.

To be honest, I am not surprised, initially I had clearly asked my share to be moved to Deadterra on BitFunder but they ended up to Burnside at BTCT.co.

This is the reason colored coin or openTransaction should have been used for managing shares transfers !!!


If thats true then its truly fucked up...
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August 08, 2013, 07:39:41 AM
 #2151

I think the main reason why the share is tanking is because there are 13 500 share stuck into BitFunder.
For the last 10+ days I've been told there is still a huge mess with Friedcat accounting (him crediting the wrong people with shares) and that's why DeadTerra has halted all shares transfer in/out while this is solved.

To be honest, I am not surprised, initially I had clearly asked my share to be moved to Deadterra on BitFunder but they ended up to Burnside at BTCT.co.

This is the reason colored coin or openTransaction should have been used for managing shares transfers !!!


If thats true then its truly fucked up...

It's not just the BitFunder share transfers that got messed up, my direct shares transfer from BTCT was finally corrected last night.  Last week 80% of my shares disappeared... and their dividends.  I've since received my missing dividends and the divs for my correct # of shares.  So, progress is being made.  

Don't tip me... tip the Riseup folks who protect activists around the world.
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August 08, 2013, 01:54:52 PM
 #2152

Mr Market having a bad hair day today. Looks cheap to me. I just bought some.
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August 08, 2013, 02:09:20 PM
 #2153

Yeah, only down $100/share from about 2 weeks ago..
velacreations (OP)
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August 08, 2013, 02:18:20 PM
 #2154

time to buy, fellas!  these are great prices!

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August 08, 2013, 03:17:50 PM
 #2155

Just brought more! Wheres the support? Huh
velacreations (OP)
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August 08, 2013, 03:23:49 PM
 #2156

Just brought more! Wheres the support? Huh
well, supposedly, a large number of shares (2,000) were moved to BTCT.co in the last week.  So, if that's true, there might be a whale or 2 trying to move several hundred shares and dropping the price.  It looks like any support that pops up is getting filled quickly.

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August 08, 2013, 04:12:25 PM
 #2157

I really hope these prices stay low until tomorrow.....payday Smiley
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August 08, 2013, 04:28:01 PM
 #2158

AM is like Apple. As being leader, and dropping price due to competitors, and speculation over new coming things.
ianp
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August 08, 2013, 04:30:42 PM
 #2159

Reminder:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/15Ws1XzJeynK_vsKiQ9NaufQfLZOSKsRfsSgqMLTdIRs/edit

You can still vote on the questions to Friedcat. They will be compiled and submitted in a few days.
velacreations (OP)
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August 08, 2013, 05:05:31 PM
 #2160

AM is like Apple. As being leader, and dropping price due to competitors, and speculation over new coming things.
price is dropping to competitors on the securities market, not due to competitors in the ASIC market.

the drop is likely due to IPO mania and no news from FC.  If either of those things change, (IPOs are approaching their IPO price) then AM will go back up.

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