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pikeadz
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August 06, 2013, 10:04:30 AM |
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I think this means that AM is going to rise, today. Nope. Shares at 380 at havelock and bitfunder. It seems to be going down. |
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Taxidermista
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1147
Merit: 1001
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August 06, 2013, 10:36:02 AM |
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I think this means that AM is going to rise, today. Think again. |
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Rival
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August 06, 2013, 12:21:54 PM |
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I have been thinking a bit about bitcoin investments, and about AM in particular. I think there is a common misconception that fails to take into account the Observer Effect.
Suppose I decide to purchase a 50Gh/s miner from BFL today. Most people would base this decision in large part by when they expected to receive it. Once ordered, they are in a great hurry for it to arrive, trying to get it up and running before the difficulty gets insane. The problem is, from a certain perspective, it matters less when they get it than they think. The reason is, there are already thousands of people ahead of them in the queue. The very fact that their miner arrives means that all of these others have been delivered, guaranteeing the very difficulty increases they are racing against. They were doomed before they ever made the purchase. Of course, there are other factors, such as the possibility of other companies delivering additional hash. Getting your hash on line before theirs is certainly advantageous. But If I were to bring online a hashing power equivalent to the current global hash tomorrow, I would effectively double the difficulty, devaluing the very hashes I want to profit from.
For companies in the business of hashing (or at least the prospect of hashing someday) the Observer Effect if ignored can dash any potential they may have of surviving. As I noted in a previous post if one would add up the projected hash totals of all of the mining outfits on BTC-TC, it would equal more than 200% of the global hash. Most of these outfits will fail miserably to obtain their projected percentages of global hash, and they most certainly will drive the difficulty through the roof, making it even harder for themselves to attain the percentages they desire. They are all in effect eating their tails.
It has been almost axiomatic that early adopters pay the development costs. The first guy who bought a cell phone paid thousands and thousands, today they can be had for free. A successful venture in the bitcoin mining space must certainly avoid this. It was easy initially, when there was no real competition, and AM was able to claim a large chunk of hash for himself and his shareholders. The profits available just from being the hash bully were easily able to recoup development costs. Once other players arrived, FC shifted strategies, and sold large hash in small packages to the public in general, and as usual the early adopters shouldered the weight of development costs. Just look at those who paid 1.99 btc per USB a scant few months ago. If FC was a fool, that added global hash distributed across the world would have beaten down his share of global mining hash. But it did not. It did not because he held more in reserve in anticipation of the Observer Effect. I think it is safe to believe that FC accounts for this, and accounts for it quite well.
When I see other groups projecting target percentages of 20% or 30% of the global hash, I have to wonder if these projections are even remotely based upon the inclusion of their own hash's contribution to the difficulty. Perhaps they just see an infinite number of chips pouring off assembly lines into their farms, never realizing that every chip they produce devalues the one before it. They are constantly in the process of making their own equipment worthless. I am looking forward to seeing how FC perseveres in this new environment where the "first mover" power factors less.
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velacreations (OP)
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August 06, 2013, 01:19:11 PM |
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I think this means that AM is going to rise, today. Nope. Shares at 380 at havelock and bitfunder. It seems to be going down. well, at this time yesterday, BTCT was in the 3.8's. It is now over 4. So, yes, it did rise. |
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Rival
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August 06, 2013, 01:19:27 PM |
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By the way, BFL has been shipping 10's of Th/s every single day. I know they have been the hated stepchild for over a year, but those units are arriving en mass daily, and the effect BFL is having on global hash cannot be ignored. The swelling of hash in the major mining pools may soon be problematic to AM shareholders if not addressed.
I know.. "BFL blah, blah, scammers, blah, blah, a year behind schedule, blah blah...". Say what you want, their hash is coming online across the world in a rather big way, and it is showing up in the global hash.
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velacreations (OP)
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August 06, 2013, 01:23:27 PM |
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By the way, BFL has been shipping 10's of Th/s every single day. I know they have been the hated stepchild for over a year, but those units are arriving en mass daily, and the effect BFL is having on global hash cannot be ignored. The swelling of hash in the major mining pools may soon be problematic to AM shareholders if not addressed.
I know.. "BFL blah, blah, scammers, blah, blah, a year behind schedule, blah blah...". Say what you want, their hash is coming online across the world in a rather big way, and it is showing up in the global hash.
I think AM is addressing this increase in hash. The AM has is increasing, as well. It's currently over 60 TH/s |
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Rival
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August 06, 2013, 01:30:31 PM |
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By the way, BFL has been shipping 10's of Th/s every single day. I know they have been the hated stepchild for over a year, but those units are arriving en mass daily, and the effect BFL is having on global hash cannot be ignored. The swelling of hash in the major mining pools may soon be problematic to AM shareholders if not addressed.
I know.. "BFL blah, blah, scammers, blah, blah, a year behind schedule, blah blah...". Say what you want, their hash is coming online across the world in a rather big way, and it is showing up in the global hash.
I think AM is addressing this increase in hash. The AM has is increasing, as well. It's currently over 60 TH/s With over 10 Th/s coming online daily, 60 Th/s will be run over in no time. We need to see Ph/s and soon. |
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velacreations (OP)
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August 06, 2013, 01:40:20 PM |
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With over 10 Th/s coming online daily, 60 Th/s will be run over in no time. We need to see Ph/s and soon.
well, if 10 Th/s is actually coming online every day, then AM should be putting up 1-2 TH/s a day to keep up. Look at AM's hash increase. I think they have things under control:  |
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Rival
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August 06, 2013, 01:58:09 PM |
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That is a nice chart. It does indeed look like they are keeping up. But I can't help but be reminded of the tragedy of the commons. Everyone is rushing to cut down the forest as fast as they can before someone else comes along and cuts it down. Eventually you run out of trees. Now, I know we will not in our lifetime run out of trees (bitcoins to mine), but we may well get to the point that it is no longer profitable for anyone anywhere to make, sell, or buy ASICs. There are two things that can prevent this: increased adoption leading to higher transaction fees in blocks, and increased value of BTC (which would essentially go hand in hand). I look forward to seeing how ASIC development and economic growth struggle to keep an equilibrium. If it works, it will prove once again that free markets actually work efficiently.
Consider that in the forest it may become unprofitable to make saws, even as the price of firewood goes through the ceiling.
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velacreations (OP)
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August 06, 2013, 02:33:54 PM |
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That is a nice chart. It does indeed look like they are keeping up. But I can't help but be reminded of the tragedy of the commons. Everyone is rushing to cut down the forest as fast as they can before someone else comes along and cuts it down. Eventually you run out of trees. Now, I know we will not in our lifetime run out of trees (bitcoins to mine), but we may well get to the point that it is no longer profitable for anyone anywhere to make, sell, or buy ASICs. There are two things that can prevent this: increased adoption leading to higher transaction fees in blocks, and increased value of BTC (which would essentially go hand in hand). I look forward to seeing how ASIC development and economic growth struggle to keep an equilibrium. If it works, it will prove once again that free markets actually work efficiently.
Consider that in the forest it may become unprofitable to make saws, even as the price of firewood goes through the ceiling.
well, the cutting of the tress is regulated, here, by a natural limitation: difficulty. So, the important thing is really not hash rate, but your percentage of the network. If AM is able to maintain 10-30% into the future, they will maintain mining dividend levels. Of course, selling their hardware let's them have a bigger chunk of the network percentage, effectively. Also, leasing hardware has the same result. So, at some point, AM might have 20% of the network mining themselves, 20% mining using their hardware, and 20% mining, but leased to other entities. By my calculations, AM has at least 180 TH/s they have yet to deploy, so just for maintaining their percentage, they should be good until the network passes the PT/s milestone (triple the current hash). And, I expect they will have more hardware in the works by that time. |
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velacreations (OP)
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August 06, 2013, 03:11:07 PM |
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while I think the share price may take some more dips around 3.8, I think we are near the bottom of the slump. I believe the jumps in hash rate are related to new hardware coming online, which means new hardware for sale will follow, soon. With increased dividends from hardware sales, share prices will increase, likely hitting 5 btc within a few weeks.
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mechs
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August 06, 2013, 05:56:57 PM |
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while I think the share price may take some more dips around 3.8, I think we are near the bottom of the slump. I believe the jumps in hash rate are related to new hardware coming online, which means new hardware for sale will follow, soon. With increased dividends from hardware sales, share prices will increase, likely hitting 5 btc within a few weeks.
I think there is not a lot of support under the share price since a lot of people sitting on profits they not locked in yet. Also a lot of speculative weak hands. Any negative catalyst and this will down below 3 quickly. The long-term may be up, but I bet this see 3.0 before it sees 5 again. Regardless of your long-term perspective, their will be a better entry point for new coins. |
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velacreations (OP)
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August 06, 2013, 06:41:42 PM |
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I think there is not a lot of support under the share price since a lot of people sitting on profits they not locked in yet. Also a lot of speculative weak hands. Any negative catalyst and this will down below 3 quickly. The long-term may be up, but I bet this see 3.0 before it sees 5 again. Regardless of your long-term perspective, their will be a better entry point for new coins.
Every time the price starts to drop below 4, you see huge support come into the market, and it has yet to break 3.8. I think it will be really hard to break 3.8, unless there is a major bad news event. It is likely that hardware will be for sale, soon, which means that the price will likely rise considerably. Which is more likely, a catastrophic news event or hardware for sale? |
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lophie
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August 06, 2013, 07:01:17 PM |
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I think there is not a lot of support under the share price since a lot of people sitting on profits they not locked in yet. Also a lot of speculative weak hands. Any negative catalyst and this will down below 3 quickly. The long-term may be up, but I bet this see 3.0 before it sees 5 again. Regardless of your long-term perspective, their will be a better entry point for new coins.
Every time the price starts to drop below 4, you see huge support come into the market, and it has yet to break 3.8. I think it will be really hard to break 3.8, unless there is a major bad news event. It is likely that hardware will be for sale, soon, which means that the price will likely rise considerably. Which is more likely, a catastrophic news event or hardware for sale? Cat got overcooked? I highly doubt it. Maybe we are in a period of speculative silence between the silence of the fried cat and the Shilling of new shit IPOs. History repeats itself in coin land. the cat will deliver our fried coins fresh from the oven, first thing Thursday morning. Shit IPOs will inflate their bubbles to oblivion then greedy six coiners would cry like babies while *******, ****** and ****** points at them and laugh "thanks for the coins, losers!". Just my opinion >_>, Didn't matter when I shilled ASICMINER IPO and got laughed at for not choosing to trust and invest in BFL Hardware, Dunno why it should matter now..... |
Will take me a while to climb up again, But where is a will, there is a way...
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AMuppInTime
Donator
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 290
Merit: 250
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August 06, 2013, 07:13:21 PM |
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There are just too many investment opportunities around that people NEED to take their coins out of AM.... And because the pool of investors is not infinite, there isn't much support at current levels. Maybe around 3.5-3.8 but we need something new to keep the prices propped higher than 4.0.
I, too, am looking for a new entry point - maybe a day or so after divs?
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mgio
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August 06, 2013, 07:16:27 PM |
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By the way, BFL has been shipping 10's of Th/s every single day. I know they have been the hated stepchild for over a year, but those units are arriving en mass daily, and the effect BFL is having on global hash cannot be ignored. The swelling of hash in the major mining pools may soon be problematic to AM shareholders if not addressed.
I know.. "BFL blah, blah, scammers, blah, blah, a year behind schedule, blah blah...". Say what you want, their hash is coming online across the world in a rather big way, and it is showing up in the global hash.
Are you kidding? BFL is barely shipping at all. Do you read BFL Jody's blog??? They are still shipping singles from June 26! That is only the FOURTH day of their preorders. They have well over a year of pre-orders left and theyve been "shipping" for a couple of months now. Minirigs are still in the second week. Jalapenos are the only ones they've shipped a bunch off and they still aren't even half way through those. And at just 5 Gh/s device they don't have much of an impact. |
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keeron
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August 06, 2013, 07:17:25 PM |
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Seeing how things are moving, I'd suspect folks waiting for their dividends and then moving the BTC out of AM into some of the other newly released IPOs. Repeat this until the price of AM goes up close to 5 and/or dividends are around 0.03 mark
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mgio
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August 06, 2013, 07:44:25 PM |
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They are still shipping singles from June 26! June 26, 2012 or June 26, 2013? 2012!! |
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keeron
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August 06, 2013, 08:07:45 PM |
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Oh wow... they made progress! BACKWARDS :-) They are still shipping singles from June 26! June 26, 2012 or June 26, 2013? 2012!! |
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Rival
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August 06, 2013, 09:08:48 PM
Last edit: August 06, 2013, 09:19:15 PM by Rival |
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Actually, if you read Jody's blog you will find that every minirig order for the first month has already been shipped a 500Ghs, they are now working through the other two each of them will be receiving, plus now working on minirigs for July orders. That is close to 60 500Ghz machines shipped in the last month. Thats 30Ths in one month just on minirigs, and for the first half of last month they shipped very little. They also shipped a full month of 25Ghz machines in one day, in excess of 100 rigs for another 2.5Ths.
They certainly started slow last month when they finally started shipping. But they are pouring out now and chewing the backorders quickly. Funny how that can happen once all of your parts start arriving at a steady rate.
It would be a mistake to crawl into a safe warm cave and repeat the "I hate BFL" mantra and ignore what they are actually doing right now. And what they are doing right now is chewing through thousands of orders. Hopefully no one is kidding themselves that they won't get plugged in.
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