ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[freedomno1]

Vycid buys puts if people are interested so make sure to offer above those prices
Anyways as everyone keeps saying value depends but no short market
Only puts and calls atm

[helixone]

It is over-valued by at least a factor of two. Where can I short?

At the moment none of the exchanges offer margin or shorting, so you'd have to convince someone to lend you the shares OTC.

BTC-TC has call and put options

Well options are very different than shorting. Yes you can make bets that price will go down, but the difference with an actual short is that you are putting your money where your mouth is and selling the shares on the exchanges. In other words, shorting will directly impact the trading prices.

My guess though to actually squeeze the market to a point of inducing a temporary panic, you'd have to borrow a full board seat of 5000 shares and do the short when there is some bad news you could pin the downward price movement on. IE: You're gonna need to convince other people that the temporary price movement is real, and induce people to panic sell, so you can close the position at a lower price than you sold.

Good luck with that! (You are likely to get killed trying to fight this trend.)

-helixone

[freedomno1]

Well I guess that could explain the mtgox drop
Best of luck trying to short that the 4.5 Wall is breaking today  
Well at least in my time zone by prediction UTI server 3:45:16 AM lol so within 20 hours and 44 mins XD Using July 2
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=247803.0;topicseen

[stripykitteh]

Looks like Jutarul's wall is gone. Price is around 4.6BTC.

[VJain]

Looks like Jutarul's wall is gone. Price is around 4.6BTC.

Seems like there's 250~ or so left still

[velacreations]

the market got bored, they are just gonna ignore the sell wall...

[stripykitteh]

Looks like Jutarul's wall is gone. Price is around 4.6BTC.

Seems like there's 250~ or so left still

I guess if you don't have 90BTC to spare it's the market or nothing.

[EskimoBob]

I do not want to piss on your parade but you have to look at the BTC price an put it in to context.
BTC has lost about 33.7% over the last 30 days. So, 4.49 today is like 2.98 a month ago Still, the gain is nice.

So, if you buy your BTC today and dump it on AM, you are not left that far behind. Question is, will AM take a nose dive if BTC price recovers?
At the same time, are there any fundamental reasons for BTC to recover in short term? Diff is not a fundamental reason because ASIC's are so much more efficient mining while fear of not getting your investment back has probably a huge role in recent BTC sell offs.

[freedomno1]

Looks like Jutarul's wall is gone. Price is around 4.6BTC.

Seems like there's 250~ or so left still

I guess if you don't have 90BTC to spare it's the market or nothing.

Well Been a while since I've done this but does the less than 90 Bit a favor

Btct
PT
6   ฿ 0.045999
22   ฿ 0.046
56   ฿ 0.0468
500   ฿ 0.0469
Whole
7   ฿ 4.599998
13   ฿ 4.6
1   ฿ 4.609996

Bitfunder
PT 1/100
1,300   ฿0.04640     
99   ฿0.04650
Whole
2   ฿4.58890     
1   ฿4.5890

Havelock
PT 1/100
2013-07-02 02:55:23
400/400   ฿0.04444900   ฿17.7796
2013-07-02 02:54:12
853/853   ฿0.04445000   ฿37.9159
2013-07-02 02:45:35
50/50   ฿0.04445400   ฿2.2227
2013-07-02 01:35:38
446/446   ฿0.04447899   ฿19.8376
2013-07-02 01:34:25
303/303   ฿0.04449190   ฿13.4810
2013-07-02 01:23:40
100/100   ฿0.04498765   ฿4.4988

About 100 BTC worth of shares cheaper than 4.5 rather go fetch them before that wall breaks
Downwards bids also lol
Tks

[stripykitteh]

I do not want to piss on your parade but you have to look at the BTC price an put it in to context.
BTC has lost about 33.7% over the last 30 days. So, 4.49 today is like 2.98 a month ago Still, the gain is nice.

So, if you buy your BTC today and dump it on AM, you are not left that far behind. Question is, will AM take a nose dive if BTC price recovers?
At the same time, are there any fundamental reasons for BTC to recover in short term? Diff is not a fundamental reason because ASIC's are so much more efficient mining while fear of not getting your investment back has probably a huge role in recent BTC sell offs.

There's no parade so I don't know where your piss is going. If you read my post carefully you will see I wasn't praising the increase. I wouldn't mind if AM went under 3 so my dividends can buy more. I find the current price a little frustrating.

[freedomno1]

I do not want to piss on your parade but you have to look at the BTC price an put it in to context.
BTC has lost about 33.7% over the last 30 days. So, 4.49 today is like 2.98 a month ago Still, the gain is nice.

So, if you buy your BTC today and dump it on AM, you are not left that far behind. Question is, will AM take a nose dive if BTC price recovers?
At the same time, are there any fundamental reasons for BTC to recover in short term? Diff is not a fundamental reason because ASIC's are so much more efficient mining while fear of not getting your investment back has probably a huge role in recent BTC sell offs.

Uncertain outcome
Yes and No
Kind of gets complicated
Main AM thread has been discussing variants of this argument
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2632593#msg2632593
Actually try page 459 onward Eskimo
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2624987#msg2624987
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2625069#msg2625069

[freedomno1]

When the next 200th comes online we will see 3.5 easy.

And here we are at 4.5!

We didn't forget to bring the Goat
Fires the hypnotic ray
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJcX2jxoXYw

[EskimoBob]

I do not want to piss on your parade but you have to look at the BTC price an put it in to context.
BTC has lost about 33.7% over the last 30 days. So, 4.49 today is like 2.98 a month ago Still, the gain is nice.

So, if you buy your BTC today and dump it on AM, you are not left that far behind. Question is, will AM take a nose dive if BTC price recovers?
At the same time, are there any fundamental reasons for BTC to recover in short term? Diff is not a fundamental reason because ASIC's are so much more efficient mining while fear of not getting your investment back has probably a huge role in recent BTC sell offs.

Uncertain outcome
Yes and No
Kind of gets complicated
Main AM thread has been discussing variants of this argument
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2632593#msg2632593
Actually try page 459 onward Eskimo
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2624987#msg2624987
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2625069#msg2625069

Thank you for the links. Interesting indeed but "market cap" fetish can end badly. "Look at my "market cap"" nonsense is actually used in this forum before to mesmerize clueless "investors" and BTC enthusiasts and then milk them for their coin.
Market cap it is close to meaningless, if only tiny portion of shares is traded publicly. It has to be taken with a grain of salt... or a spoonful.

If you like ratios, use P/E, P/B etc. Sure, you can estimate P/E, based on 6 months earnings but for that, you need a actual P/L statements and so far, AM has not published a single financial report. So, you have no idea what is going on. Using mh/s estimates and "we sold" blaa blaa blaa is just blaa blaa blaa. You have no idea what the expenses side is. It's like me showing you a triangle and you think it's part of a square and make your calculations.

Estimates, based on estimates of estimates is waste of time and will backfire sooner than later.

Cheers!

[freedomno1]

I do not want to piss on your parade but you have to look at the BTC price an put it in to context.
BTC has lost about 33.7% over the last 30 days. So, 4.49 today is like 2.98 a month ago Still, the gain is nice.

So, if you buy your BTC today and dump it on AM, you are not left that far behind. Question is, will AM take a nose dive if BTC price recovers?
At the same time, are there any fundamental reasons for BTC to recover in short term? Diff is not a fundamental reason because ASIC's are so much more efficient mining while fear of not getting your investment back has probably a huge role in recent BTC sell offs.

Uncertain outcome
Yes and No
Kind of gets complicated
Main AM thread has been discussing variants of this argument
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2632593#msg2632593
Actually try page 459 onward Eskimo
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2624987#msg2624987
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2625069#msg2625069

Thank you for the links. Interesting indeed but "market cap" fetish can end badly. "Look at my "market cap"" nonsense is actually used in this forum before to mesmerize clueless "investors" and BTC enthusiasts and then milk them for their coin.
Market cap it is close to meaningless, if only tiny portion of shares is traded publicly. It has to be taken with a grain of salt... or a spoonful.

If you like ratios, use P/E, P/B etc. Sure, you can estimate P/E, based on 6 months earnings but for that, you need a actual P/L statements and so far, AM has not published a single financial report. So, you have no idea what is going on. Using mh/s estimates and "we sold" blaa blaa blaa is just blaa blaa blaa. You have no idea what the expenses side is. It's like me showing you a triangle and you think it's part of a square and make your calculations.

Estimates, based on estimates of estimates is waste of time and will backfire sooner than later.

Cheers!

Yep everything is speculative

But sometimes the main thread likes to go speculate he-he
Waits till Wednesday ^_^

That said we only have the past history to rely on the future is always more uncertain the farther we go into it
You can verify how much trading really occurs using other blockchain stats try to see if their is a Wednesday pattern etc
It's up to investors to research it especially if the source is pretty much linked to

Regarding AM I wouldn't say there is absolutely no way of seeing whats going on in the long term using the past history it might be harder to intro-scope AM's total effect on the chart in particular but using other available data you can estimate some factors such as dividends etc.

http://blockchain.info/charts
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses
http://blockchain.info/charts/tx-trade-ratio
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular
http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-cumulative
http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed

It kind of gets messy but their are a lot of charts you can interpolate from
http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin
http://blockchain.info/charts/trade-volume
http://blockchain.info/charts/trade-volume?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&timespan=30days&scale=0&address=

Off this topic
Market Fix Havelock Rofl
It's funny watching one keep going down while the others are going up a lot lmao
Hmm lol watches Sockets moving lol

[ex-trader]

Market cap is incredibly important in the analysis of whether to invest. Yes, it doesn't mean that every share could be bought or sold at that price, but that applies to every quoted stock on the NYSE/NASDAQ as well. It does however allow you to understand the economics in a big picture way.

ASICMiner does two things and it does them very well. It mines coins and it sells mining hardware. It is currently killing the competition in both markets and is paying great divs and is highly regarded for good reason.

BUT.......

Both of these markets are limited to the same overall statistic, that of the circa 10m remaining Bitcoins. Assuming that miners are rational (?) then the amount they'll pay for a miner should not exceed the amount it can mine. Therefore in the extreme optimal case in theory if ASIC Miner could mine 49% of Bitcoins and sell all the hardware that mined the other 51%, it would still be capped in value at 21m Bitcoins = 25BTC/share. (NB This ignores all costs in mining/production)

However, it is clear from the large number of competitiors in existence or emerging that in the longer term their share of both markets will be substantially smaller than it is now and assuming they were able to secure 20% of both markets forever, then you'd have a cap of 5BTC/share. (Again ignoring all costs).

However this assumes that both investors/miners want no actual returns ie they will buy a share or a miner for X BTC, then be happy to earn the same X in returns over the long-term life of the holding. If on the other hand they actually want a 20-30% ROI then the price they'll be willing to pay is a LOT less, easily half so 2.5 BTC or less.

The above assumes that shares of the markets are constant of course, the reality is that right now ASIC Miner is holding a big share of both and it is this that is providing high divs and returns in the SHORT-TERM. If they can hold this for even 6-12 months and their competitors become delayed then the shares can be worth more, as the riches in sales and mining are NOW but are on a downward trend.

I know the counter-argument is always 'what about the transaction fees' but right now fees are tiny and barely even pay for electricity, if it all.

My strong advice to anyone holding a lot of these who invested early and for whom this represents a large proportion of their personal wealth is to start slowly reducing their holding and protecting the current value. There's an old phrase of 'selling into strength' in markets as well as 'no-one made a loss by taking a profit' that comes to mind.

[Eric Muyser]

Both of these markets are limited to the same overall statistic, that of the circa 10m remaining Bitcoins. Assuming that miners are rational (?) then the amount they'll pay for a miner should not exceed the amount it can mine. Therefore in the extreme optimal case in theory if ASIC Miner could mine 49% of Bitcoins and sell all the hardware that mined the other 51%, it would still be capped in value at 21m Bitcoins = 25BTC/share. (NB This ignores all costs in mining/production)

Two words. Transaction fees.

[Pierre]

I know the counter-argument is always 'what about the transaction fees' but right now fees are tiny and barely even pay for electricity, if it all.

Sure but in a few years when the transaction volume goes up 10x or 100x or whatever the transaction fees will be much bigger. By the time the block reward drops to 6.25 the transaction fees will probably have surpassed it. Yes there might be a reduction in returns but there's always gonna be money to be made (assuming Bitcoin itself does well)

[supert]

Well options are very different than shorting.

Synthetic futures:

He could write a call with strike 0.
He could write a call and buy a put at same strike.

[stripykitteh]

Both of these markets are limited to the same overall statistic, that of the circa 10m remaining Bitcoins. Assuming that miners are rational (?) then the amount they'll pay for a miner should not exceed the amount it can mine. Therefore in the extreme optimal case in theory if ASIC Miner could mine 49% of Bitcoins and sell all the hardware that mined the other 51%, it would still be capped in value at 21m Bitcoins = 25BTC/share. (NB This ignores all costs in mining/production)

I disagree with you. The possible market cap of any mining entity is not capped by the total number of BTC that will ever be in circulation. In the very long term it will only be capped by the value of the fees it mines. If a mining company has fair market value of x and it mines say x/10 coins in fees per year (giving a yield of 10%), what happens to the value of the company if the transaction rate doubles? What if the transaction rate increases by a factor of 10? 100? 1000?

[empoweoqwj]

Both of these markets are limited to the same overall statistic, that of the circa 10m remaining Bitcoins. Assuming that miners are rational (?) then the amount they'll pay for a miner should not exceed the amount it can mine. Therefore in the extreme optimal case in theory if ASIC Miner could mine 49% of Bitcoins and sell all the hardware that mined the other 51%, it would still be capped in value at 21m Bitcoins = 25BTC/share. (NB This ignores all costs in mining/production)

I disagree with you. The possible market cap of any mining entity is not capped by the total number of BTC that will ever be in circulation. In the very long term it will only be capped by the value of the fees it mines. If a mining company has fair market value of x and it mines say x/10 coins in fees per year (giving a yield of 10%), what happens to the value of the company if the transaction rate doubles? What if the transaction rate increases by a factor of 10? 100? 1000?

Isn't it amazing how many times you have to repeat this very simple math. Must have seen people post it a dozen times *wrongly* in this and the main ASICMINER thread. People either ignore transaction fees because either (a) they don't realize miners get paid for them, or (b) they don't believe bitcoins will produce sufficient transaction fees to make them worthwhile.

If (a), go and do some homework
If (b), I don't know what you are investing in bitcoins in the first place if you don't believe they will generate significant transaction fees for miners in a few years time.