ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[pascal257]

Watch... havelock has almost no activity, so its easy to spot

So about 450BTC in 24h is almost no activity?

[talnted]

No rational person posts a bid .05 - .1 btc higher than the next lowest bid.  I hold ASICMINER shares so I would love to see them go up.  I have just seen these movements before and they don't amount to anything real.  Its one person.

[talnted]

The profit is with low volume in bids and asks they can move the price and manipulate, you can profit doing it either direction.  You try and have the public gap fill and sell high or buy low.  its super easy if there are only 20 or so shares seperating .88 and 1.15 on the ask side.

[jimmothy]

This does look like a classic case of pump and dump. The interview really didn't say anything new that was unknown but people took the news as "asicminer is going to have 1000th/s solo mining" instead of "asicminer will have sold a total of 1000th/s"

According to my calculations (@30%apr) asicminer should be hashing at around 250 th/s to be valued at 1btc/share (currently at 50th/s). And for that to be true we would need to expect constant hash rate growth along with the difficulty increase which doesn't seem to be happening.

[pascal257]

The profit is with low volume in bids and asks they can move the price and manipulate, you can profit doing it either direction.  You try and have the public gap fill and sell high or buy low.  its super easy if there are only 20 or so shares seperating .88 and 1.15 on the ask side.

It's not that easy. You always run the risk that someone with high volume undercuts you and then you're screwed. Especially when your avg share price can be calculated.

[dexX7]

According to my calculations (@30%apr) asicminer should be hashing at around 250 th/s to be valued at 1btc/share (currently at 50th/s). And for that to be true we would need to expect constant hash rate growth along with the difficulty increase which doesn't seem to be happening.

The 30 % rule seems to provide a good approximation, but "currently at 50th/s" is probably too low. erpao.info shows only 47 TH/s, but that's just the air cooling data center, I think. This was posted on Oct 9:

Self-retained (not sold) Hashrate distribution:

Air cooling datacenter - 47TH/s
Under franchising - 19TH/s
Immersion cooling - 5TH/s with 3-5TH/s per day towards 60TH/s in total.

If this is accurate, AM should have a combined hashrate of 126 TH/s or 122,2 TH/s, if franchising is factored with 0.8. But even this is not really accurate, because it doesn't include hardware sales, which seems to be a significant factor.

I hope the report tomorrow brings some transparency..

[talnted]

The profit is with low volume in bids and asks they can move the price and manipulate, you can profit doing it either direction.  You try and have the public gap fill and sell high or buy low.  its super easy if there are only 20 or so shares seperating .88 and 1.15 on the ask side.

It's not that easy. You always run the risk that someone with high volume undercuts you and then you're screwed. Especially when your avg share price can be calculated.

I am saying the price movement is easy... not profiting.. I made the point that it won't work and is a bad idea.

[professorY]

guy is buying up shares .88 - 1.1 and the lowest bid is .86.  Then instantly a bid is posted at .95 range... obviously not trying to buy shares a good price.  Its artificial pumping and his bids are getting sold to nearly as fast.  

I've been watching Havelock really closely (too closely, really) for quite some time as I'm into quite a few of their offerings, and this is something I've noticed in most of the securities outside of ASICminer too. NEOBEE for sure it happens. No mater what the most recent sell is, almost immediately bids and asks right around that fill in the gap. Within milliseconds. Which leads me to believe that it's a program someone's running, rather than a person manually entering bids and asks. Havelock's API is available. It wouldn't be too hard to write a program that sets bids and asks around a given price.

[ThickAsThieves]

guy is buying up shares .88 - 1.1 and the lowest bid is .86.  Then instantly a bid is posted at .95 range... obviously not trying to buy shares a good price.  Its artificial pumping and his bids are getting sold to nearly as fast.  

I've been watching Havelock really closely (too closely, really) for quite some time as I'm into quite a few of their offerings, and this is something I've noticed in most of the securities outside of ASICminer too. NEOBEE for sure it happens. No mater what the most recent sell is, almost immediately bids and asks right around that fill in the gap. Within milliseconds. Which leads me to believe that it's a program someone's running, rather than a person manually entering bids and asks. Havelock's API is available. It wouldn't be too hard to write a program that sets bids and asks around a given price.

It's just bots. "Normal" bot behavior can trick suspicious people like talnted into thinking other meta trends are related. The simple answer here is that the price is volatile and can be moved 10-30% with relatively low volume. Put more orders on the books and this will be mitigated.

[jeffshed]

fuckin hate bots. always undercutting you. within seconds. bastards

[lophie]

Lets see what would a broken promise would do to the share price, 3 hours left for the 27th.

[lophie]

JUST FYI, FC logged in half an hour ago then loggedout

[pascal257]

JUST FYI, FC logged in half an hour ago then loggedout

Sell, sell, sell!!

[velacreations]

oh geez, lophie, trying to get some cheap shares?

talk about ridiculous FUD

[lophie]

oh geez, lophie, trying to get some cheap shares?

talk about ridiculous FUD

Fear, Uncertainty, and Disinformation

Yes I am trying to get cheap shares but I don't spread false information. you are all welcome to check this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840.

Again, He logged in half an hour ago from my post. Then logged off. He failed to post what was promised on the 27, At least China time.

[Zubilica]

oh geez, lophie, trying to get some cheap shares?

talk about ridiculous FUD

Fear, Uncertainty, and Disinformation

Yes I am trying to get cheap shares but I don't spread false information. you are all welcome to check this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840.

Again, He logged in half an hour ago from my post. Then logged off. He failed to post what was promised on the 27, At least China time.

Fear, uncertainty and doubt

[lophie]

oh geez, lophie, trying to get some cheap shares?

talk about ridiculous FUD

Fear, Uncertainty, and Disinformation

Yes I am trying to get cheap shares but I don't spread false information. you are all welcome to check this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840.

Again, He logged in half an hour ago from my post. Then logged off. He failed to post what was promised on the 27, At least China time.

Fear, uncertainty and doubt

Watch out we have a badass here

http://www.netlingo.com/word/fud.php

Maybe the internet is not very accurate? maybe being an acronym nazi pay off well in crapcoin?

[professorY]

Watch out we have a badass here

http://www.netlingo.com/word/fud.php

Maybe the internet is not very accurate? maybe being an acronym nazi pay off well in crapcoin?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty_and_doubt

FTFY

[lophie]

Watch out we have a badass here

http://www.netlingo.com/word/fud.php

Maybe the internet is not very accurate? maybe being an acronym nazi pay off well in crapcoin?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty_and_doubt

FTFY

I surrender, oh master. For wikipedia is..... wiki..... pedia.... .

[professorY]

Watch out we have a badass here

http://www.netlingo.com/word/fud.php

Maybe the internet is not very accurate? maybe being an acronym nazi pay off well in crapcoin?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty_and_doubt

FTFY

I surrender, oh master. For wikipedia is..... wiki..... pedia.... .

Okay, so a site with an Alexa rank of 68,361 is somehow more of an authority than a site with a rank of 6?

Okay then.