[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[Bargraphics]

Good for you... what's that have to do with the network hash rate doubling monthly and future calculations showing ROI being negative?

I absolutely hate people like you that come in here and slap genesis block calculations down.

If the hashrate doubles every month, we'll be at 10PH by the end of december, 20PH by end of January, 40PH February 80PH by march and 120 by april.

Does this even look realistic to you?

Using words like "Double" or "Percentage" "every month" is extremely lazy, please come back when you have some sort of proof for your claims. (You won't be back because there is none, every manufacturer out there would have to deliver 10PH worth of equipment by april to reach that)

[1714993000]

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[neilol]

Good for you... what's that have to do with the network hash rate doubling monthly and future calculations showing ROI being negative?

Does this even look realistic to you?

Absolutely yes

[kleeck]

Good for you... what's that have to do with the network hash rate doubling monthly and future calculations showing ROI being negative?

I absolutely hate people like you that come in here and slap genesis block calculations down.

If the hashrate doubles every month, we'll be at 10PH by the end of december, 20PH by end of January, 40PH February 80PH by march and 120 by april.

Does this even look realistic to you?

Using words like "Double" or "Percentage" "every month" is extremely lazy, please come back when you have some sort of proof for your claims. (You won't be back because there is none, every manufacturer out there would have to deliver 10PH worth of equipment by april to reach that)

A valuable calculation could be getting the actually adjustments per diff change for the last year or so, and finding what the historical data really shows.

[VolanicEruptor]

Good for you... what's that have to do with the network hash rate doubling monthly and future calculations showing ROI being negative?

because ROI predictions don't take into account things like ... unpredictability?

[shaofis]

I absolutely hate people like you that come in here and slap genesis block calculations down.

If the hashrate doubles every month, we'll be at 10PH by the end of december, 20PH by end of January, 40PH February 80PH by march and 120 by april.

Does this even look realistic to you?

Using words like "Double" or "Percentage" "every month" is extremely lazy, please come back when you have some sort of proof for your claims. (You won't be back because there is none, every manufacturer out there would have to deliver 10PH worth of equipment by april to reach that)

Bargraphics... take some time and look over the calculations yourself. I don't claim to have the science to predict the hash rates in 3-6 months. But the trends are solid enough to see what is happening. I didn't make a statement in stone either.... *If* the hash rate continues to double (as current trends have shown)...

Look what I am saying is simple... with a large amount of hash rate on the horizon as we near the current technical limitations (28m/20nm etc) the average joe is going to be squeezed out of the mining. The fact that ActM has access to things at their cost gives a solid advantage over those purchasing from KnC.

I'm not discounting the impact KnC has on things either... but I believe their impact on the hash rate will be brief... they will have very strong sales for 3-6 months and things will start to slide.

[Bargraphics]

Good for you... what's that have to do with the network hash rate doubling monthly and future calculations showing ROI being negative?

I absolutely hate people like you that come in here and slap genesis block calculations down.

If the hashrate doubles every month, we'll be at 10PH by the end of december, 20PH by end of January, 40PH February 80PH by march and 120 by april.

Does this even look realistic to you?

Using words like "Double" or "Percentage" "every month" is extremely lazy, please come back when you have some sort of proof for your claims. (You won't be back because there is none, every manufacturer out there would have to deliver 10PH worth of equipment by april to reach that)

A valuable calculation could be getting the actually adjustments per diff change for the last year or so, and finding what the historical data really shows.

Or just look at what KnC sold and assume that every other manufacturer of 28nm out there can do the same in the same period of time (I'd argue they cannot) so this should be a high estimate.
You have HashFast, Cointerra, KnC, Blackarrow, Bitmine, ActM, BFL. If all of them sold 3PH during every batch (every 1.5months) we'd be adding ~56PH by beginning of April.

If you think Bitfury, Avalon, "Clam", "AntMiner", ASICMiner, etc.. can maybe do 1/2 of that with their nodes then add another 20-25PH to that.

For a total of 5PH (Currently) + 56 + 25 = 86PH maximum by April

However we know a lot of these 28nm companies are going to be delayed til the end of December, their batches suggest they won't be delivering 3PH per batch, and some might not even make it.

Oh and by the way let me AGAIN let you try to comprehend where you believe we will be at 120PH in April

120PH = is over 17B difficulty I believe (Just did a quick guestimate) which is >24x where we are at now.

It would take >218,000 Jupiters to reach that. (They sold ~5,000 in their first batch)

Only 43 batches to go!

[minerpart]

All this garbage about the competition and hash rate and from a guy who demanded repeatedly a few days ago for us to stop talking about the price of BTC as it was off topic.

WTF are you all about Bargraphics?

One minute you are telling people to shut up because they are talking about BTC and it's not relevant and here you are spewing lots of stats about our competitors and predictions about hash rates?


Pot - Kettle - Black.


TAKE IT TO THE SPECULATION THREAD.

[shaofis]

I hope you are right.

I am just looking at past trends... and despite all of the issues you quote with delivery of existing orders the hash rate has continued to grow at a pretty linear scale.

I believe the growth will have to start a decline at some point; but it is my opinion that the decline won't happen until after the new hash rates are introduced from the latest round of hardware updates. As you've indicated HashFast, Cointerra, KnC, BFL and even ActM all have new hardware coming to market in the coming months. From what I've been able to gather the new hardware is reasonably close to the current technology curve that future hardware is going to have less and less impact on the hash rates growth.

It is absolutely in our best interest that the decline in growth happen sooner then later.

This has gotten a bit off topic; what I was getting at or intended to... was that KnC's new 20nm unit is probably going to have a lower impact on things and that ActM's access to our own 28nm chips still give an advantage over KnC's customers.

[aquarius]

Update from the Colored Coin guys

Colored Coins white paper V2.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=347398.0

Hi All,

Have a look at our new white paper:
https://docs.google.com/a/etoro.com/document/d/1AnkP_cVZTCMLIzw4DvsW6M8Q2JC0lIzrTLuoWu2z1BE/edit

Feel free to comment on the shared paper or at our Google group:

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!forum/bitcoinx


For more information visit : www.coloredcoins.org

Thanks!

[Stuartuk]

All this garbage about the competition and hash rate and from a guy who demanded repeatedly a few days ago for us to stop talking about the price of BTC as it was off topic.

WTF are you all about Bargraphics?

One minute you are telling people to shut up because they are talking about BTC and it's not relevant and here you are spewing lots of stats about our competitors and predictions about hash rates?


Pot - Kettle - Black.


TAKE IT TO THE SPECULATION THREAD.

lol yeah wasn't it like 3 days ago that he was telling everyone basically they were idiots and hijacking the thread when talking about the Avalon refund and the price Ken might get for it based on the rise and fall of bitcoin prices. He was acting like forum Policeman telling people what they could and could not talk about. Now he comes out with hash rate predictions and stuff on KnC, Bitfury and all sorts of other crap.

He really thinks talking about KnC is ON-topic but talking about the price of BTC is OFF-topic? JESUS.

[knybe]

How bout this: if you get the inclination to snark or talk smack to someone DON'T.

If you gotta retort, go ahead and write it out and DON'T post it. Then go and scream into a pillow or something. I can't tell you how many times I've NOT posted some inane comeback with the realization that it added no value whatsoever to this discussion.

It's fucking getting annoying to swim through paragraphs of people talking shit while trying to discern if there is any real valuable information in this thread.

[minerpart]

That's the ideal situation yes.

But when someone comes on and demands you change the subject or are not allowed to talk about a valid topic, that is actually bad for the thread and needs to be tackled. I just tackled it.

EDIT - Talking about valuable information, would you rather read about KnC and Bitfury on here or our Avalon refund and Ken getting the best price for it?

[knybe]

At this point I'm chomping at the bit to read about some ACTIVEMINING progression.

That is all.

[zumzero]

ATH

[JoTheKhan]

So some of us still believe this announcement will be before Turkey day (two days away)?
 
I find it kind of funny how some people are saying Ken said there will be an announcement in November. These quotes are weeks old. That means Ken has been sitting on news for weeks and not telling us for what possible reason? What ever information Ken has had for the last two to three weeks, I think it is passed the time to tell us investors. You've had enough time to prepare for whatever response (good or bad) you think it will bring. If are not going to inform us now, can you give us an exact date for when you will be making your announcement concerning the mining aspect of the company.

[minerpart]

That means Ken has been sitting on news for weeks and not telling us for what possible reason?

I'm sorry but I don't follow your logic. So if a business says it will publish a report in around a months time  that means they have all the details of the report already inhand, filed away, and are just sitting on it for a month?? Could it not mean that the details are not currently known and will only be known in a month?

[JoTheKhan]

That means Ken has been sitting on news for weeks and not telling us for what possible reason?

I'm sorry but I don't follow your logic. So if a business says it will publish a report in around a months time  that means they have all the details of the report already inhand, filed away, and are just sitting on it for a month?? Could it not mean that the details are not currently known and will only be known in a month?

Hmm.. you're right. But do you think that he does not have information that he should of shared with us a long time ago. Are you saying that at this very moment he has no information on miners, no information from eAsic, and no information on the expected hashrate when we get up and running?

I can't think of any legitimate reason that any of this information would be kept secret. Whether the information is good or bad, it needs to be shared with the investors.

Right now I feel like a parent who hasn't seen his child's report card even though he should of got it weeks ago. Does he have all D's? Should I be worried?

If he has no information, he should say. "I have no information."

[tom.hashemi]

That means Ken has been sitting on news for weeks and not telling us for what possible reason?

I'm sorry but I don't follow your logic. So if a business says it will publish a report in around a months time  that means they have all the details of the report already inhand, filed away, and are just sitting on it for a month?? Could it not mean that the details are not currently known and will only be known in a month?

Hmm.. you're right. But do you think that he does not have information that he should of shared with us a long time ago. Are you saying that at this very moment he has no information on miners, no information from eAsic, and no information on the expected hashrate when we get up and running?

I can't think of any legitimate reason that any of this information would be kept secret. Whether the information is good or bad, it needs to be shared with the investors.

Right now I feel like a parent who hasn't seen his child's report card even though he should of got it weeks ago. Does he have all D's? Should I be worried?

If he has no information, he should say. "I have no information."

One of the most popular words on this thread, or rather abbreviations, has consisted of three letters: N. D. A.

That's a pretty legitimate reason.

That said, I do hope we get this big announcement this month. I've been looking forward to it.

[minerpart]

Are you saying that at this very moment he has no information on miners, no information from eAsic, and no information on the expected hashrate when we get up and running?

No, I'm sure there is a huge amount of info known last month, 2months ago and obviously the very latest such as chip/prototype performance which will have been coming in over the past 2 weeks.

But Ken has for whatever reason has decided to release it not in drips but in this major news release. (Well I certainly hope it is a large news release and hope it answers a lot of questions.) There may be a number of reasons for the info being withheld, we know about the NDA. I suspect there is a large degree of confidentiality involved in terms of not wanting to release sensitive info to our competitors. I know our competitors release lots of info that we haven't yet - but I think Ken is old-skool and likes to keep his hand close to his chest. He might have been advised to do so incase anything breeched the NDA. Anyway that's all speculation, we should know soon.

I'm not trying to be Ken's excuse man here, he doesn't seem willing or able to explain exactly why we've had the news blackout but he's a grown adult so hopefully he can explain that himself soon. But now that we know news is immanent I don't see much point in more speculation about the reasons for the lack of news.

But I would say it's possible there is no bad news in this upcoming news. It could all have gone swimmingly and to plan? Wishful thinking maybe.

[JoTheKhan]

Are you saying that at this very moment he has no information on miners, no information from eAsic, and no information on the expected hashrate when we get up and running?

I'm not trying to be Ken's excuse man here, he doesn't seem willing or able to explain exactly why we've had the news blackout but he's a grown adult so hopefully he can explain that himself soon. But now that we know news is immanent I don't see much point in more speculation about the reasons for the lack of news.

But I would say it's possible there is no bad news in this upcoming news. It could all have gone swimmingly and to plan? Wishful thinking maybe.

This quote below says otherwise. Why would he edit his previous post that hinted at news coming soon unless news was definitely not coming soon. (If I'm not mistaken this is talking about an exchange or colored coin implementation and has nothing to do with mining)

Edit:  I see what you mean, big news to silence the troll(s).  Well what I was talking about is big news in the form of a software solution that will silence the trolls.
As Pankkake is now a blackmailer requesting BTC to not post.  Why would we not want him to post, because the only thing he post is FUD.

Here he dodged the question from you as he never specified what the announcement will cover. The updates next month could of been the pdf's he gave out on the 15th.

Ken, just wondering if you can help on this one - are VMC going to be giving 'updates' about when they get the first test chips or will the first news we hear be when mining rigs start getting shipped?

Just wondering if there will be a 'we are shipping' release out of the blue one day or we will hear 'updates' leading up to that release?

Also is VMC offering a shareholder price on rigs or do we need to pay retail price?

We will be releasing some updates this next month.

We would love to give our shareholder special prices on rigs and may in the future; however, in this very competitive environment margins are very tight.

The only time I see him stating something about any other announcement is from people who are saying they PM'd Ken and have this super information about an announcement and what it will cover. If that is the case, all Ken has to say is "Yes an announcement is coming soon and it will cover this." I have yet to see him verify any of these "PM"s people are having with him. Now I could be wrong, I would love to be proven wrong.

A New ATH a new round of questioning I suppose lol