[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[Stuartuk]

Nice that you are keeping this table up to date 4justice

A couple of quick points-

1) Up to 5.5 months there is no extra '15Mill shares div effec' so the first 5.5 months will probably see the highest share prices that we ever will for ACtM. Once the 0.0025 has been paid out share price will obviously dip to reflect reduced divs.

2) You have kept the reinvest percentage at 50 - but it is likely to fall. Our costs are in FIAT so if BTC doubles we would only need 25% of mined BTC instead of 50% to keep the reinvest fund at the same level (in USD terms). So If BTC goes to 3k by end of February we would only need a third as much BTC to keep the reinvest fund on course. So the time to full 0.0025 div payout per share should be less than 5.5months as a result.

btw at what level of USD/BTC did Ken think 50% was the necessary reinvest percentage? BTC has almost doubled since then hasn't it (?) so perhaps the 50% figure is even now too high? At 50% we will be spending 1.577Mill USD in month 3 on the reinvest fund if BTC stays at 1k. If BTC is at 3k by then, that figure will be 4.731Mill USD.

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[Sou]

Nice that you are keeping this table up to date 4justice

A couple of quick points-

1) Up to 5.5 months there is no extra '15Mill shares div effec' so the first 5.5 months will probably see the highest share prices that we ever will for ACtM. Once the 0.0025 has been paid out share price will obviously dip to reflect reduced divs.

2) You have kept the reinvest percentage at 50 - but it is likely to fall. Our costs are in FIAT so if BTC doubles we would only need 25% of mined BTC instead of 50% to keep the reinvest fund at the same level (in USD terms). So If BTC goes to 3k by end of February we would only need a third as much BTC to keep the reinvest fund on course. So the time to full 0.0025 div payout per share should be less than 5.5months as a result.

btw at what level of USD/BTC did Ken think 50% was the necessary reinvest percentage? BTC has almost doubled since then hasn't it (?) so perhaps the 50% figure is even now too high? At 50% we will be spending 1.577Mill USD in month 3 on the reinvest fund if BTC stays at 1k. If BTC is at 3k by then, that figure will be 4.731Mill USD.

Now this is a question we can ask Ken; is the dividend reinvestment dynamically pegged to USD, or will it remain 50%.

But the more we put in the more we get back. With BTC on the rise our second batch has the potential to be far greater than the first - if we do keep reinvestment at 50% we can continue the snow ball effect. I feel this might be a crucial time to carve out some territory of the network, and i don't think that can be accomplished with a timid reinvestment strategy.

[Stuartuk]

It's an interesting line of enquirery.

Should we keep spending 50% of mined BTC on reinvestment untill we have X % of network or should we focus more on paying out divs.

I'm guessing there is a fairly complicated calculation to do with cost of assembly and lead-time, cost of hosting equipment, as factors all of which are only known by Ken.

[drawingthesun]

2) You have kept the reinvest percentage at 50 - but it is likely to fall. Our costs are in FIAT so if BTC doubles we would only need 25% of mined BTC instead of 50% to keep the reinvest fund at the same level (in USD terms). So If BTC goes to 3k by end of February we would only need a third as much BTC to keep the reinvest fund on course. So the time to full 0.0025 div payout per share should be less than 5.5months as a result.

We must keep reinvestment at least 50% no matter the bitcoin price.

The matlab model I posted had an ever increasing bitcoin price with reinvestment still at 50% and showed that we are going to be very much on the edge of maintaining our hashrate.

If bitcoin goes higher and higher, it is in our best interest to keep on investing 50% no matter what, because we need to expand our mining ability as much as possible.

In the long run we make more money keeping reinvestment at 50% and above, if we ever drop below 50% the competition will destroy us.

The good news is that we will make a lot of dividend, but I urge shareholders to encourage Ken to never drop the 50% reinvestment even if Bitcoins are $500,000 each. We must keep reinvesting.

Please do not drop below 50%, please.

You mention keeping the reinvest fund on course with the same amount of fiat if bitcoin increases, unfortunately this will ruin our company in just a couple of months. If bitcoin price increases we have to take advantage and keep 50%.

Get out a calculator or write a program to do the modelling yourself. You will see that if we do what you say, drop the percent of reinvest to keep the fiat amount the same when the bitcoin price rises, we will fall behind fast.

Please see the matlab model I made, it really shows all of this.

(Even reinvesting 50% when bitcoins are growing up to $10,000 over a year or two still does not guarantee we maintain our percent of the network.)

TL:DR

My model shows in the long run we make more dividend keeping reinvestment at 50% even if bitcoin prices keep rising. If we opt for more bitcoin dividend now whilst rising bitcoin prices we fall behind fast

[VolanicEruptor]

all these estimations and calculations don't mean a thing if Ken decides to not involve us in any profit taking, do any of you realize this?

[minerpart]

I'm sorry DTS but you are talking overly-dramatic nonsense. Nothing there gives us any stats which we can work off. You are just stating your personal belief - based on what?

[MilkyWayMasta]

2) You have kept the reinvest percentage at 50 - but it is likely to fall. Our costs are in FIAT so if BTC doubles we would only need 25% of mined BTC instead of 50% to keep the reinvest fund at the same level (in USD terms). So If BTC goes to 3k by end of February we would only need a third as much BTC to keep the reinvest fund on course. So the time to full 0.0025 div payout per share should be less than 5.5months as a result.

We must keep reinvestment at least 50% no matter the bitcoin price.

The matlab model I posted had an ever increasing bitcoin price with reinvestment still at 50% and showed that we are going to be very much on the edge of maintaining our hashrate.

If bitcoin goes higher and higher, it is in our best interest to keep on investing 50% no matter what, because we need to expand our mining ability as much as possible.

In the long run we make more money keeping reinvestment at 50% and above, if we ever drop below 50% the competition will destroy us.

The good news is that we will make a lot of dividend, but I urge shareholders to encourage Ken to never drop the 50% reinvestment even if Bitcoins are $500,000 each. We must keep reinvesting.

Please do not drop below 50%, please.

You mention keeping the reinvest fund on course with the same amount of fiat if bitcoin increases, unfortunately this will ruin our company in just a couple of months. If bitcoin price increases we have to take advantage and keep 50%.

Get out a calculator or write a program to do the modelling yourself. You will see that if we do what you say, drop the percent of reinvest to keep the fiat amount the same when the bitcoin price rises, we will fall behind fast.

Please see the matlab model I made, it really shows all of this.

(Even reinvesting 50% when bitcoins are growing up to $10,000 over a year or two still does not guarantee we maintain our percent of the network.)

TL:DR

My model shows in the long run we make more dividend keeping reinvestment at 50% even if bitcoin prices keep rising. If we opt for more bitcoin dividend now whilst rising bitcoin prices we fall behind fast

The main goal should be taking a large percentage of the hashing power, by any means necessary.

[drawingthesun]

I'm sorry DTS but you are talking nonsense. Nothing there gives us any stats which we can work off. You are just stating your personal belief - based on what?

More fiat to reinvest each month grows our hashrate faster, by setting a limit for fiat reinvestment we are stuck at the same TH/s increase for every reinvestment, each TH/s becomes more and more shit after each diff change, so to keep our % we need to reinvest more fiat.

In the first year we want to grow our percentage a lot.

If we set a fixed fiat reinvestment, we cannot maintain that %

Please get a calculator out and plug in even the best case variables and see that limiting reinvestment to a fixed fiat value decreases our hashrate. Because each THs is not pulling in the same amount of Bitcoin.

This is very very simple math.

Minerpart, I want between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000 out of this. I know for certain this will never happen if you convince Ken to drop our percentage of reinvestment to keep fiat reinvestment flat.

[MilkyWayMasta]

I'm sorry DTS but you are talking nonsense. Nothing there gives us any stats which we can work off. You are just stating your personal belief - based on what?

More fiat to reinvest each month grows our hashrate faster, by setting a limit for fiat reinvestment we are stuck at the same TH/s increase for every reinvestment, each TH/s becomes more and more shit after each diff change, so to keep our % we need to reinvest more fiat.

In the first year we want to grow our percentage a lot.

If we set a fixed fiat reinvestment, we cannot maintain that %

Please get a calculator out and plug in even the best case variables and see that limiting reinvestment to a fixed fiat value decreases our hashrate. Because each THs is not pulling in the same amount of Bitcoin.

This is very very simple math.

Minerpart, I want between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000 out of this. I know for certain this will never happen if you convince Ken to drop our percentage of reinvestment to keep fiat reinvestment flat.

How many shares do you have?!

[drawingthesun]

The main goal should be taking a large percentage of the hashing power, by any means necessary.

Yeah why is it no one else here wants to grow our hashrate as fast as possible?

I want to be god damn millionaire, and keeping reinvestment at a flat fiat rate robs me of that.

The percentage has to be maintained, do the math please.

[drawingthesun]

How many shares do you have?!

Only 114,425

So I need 0.01 - 0.02

If bitcoin rises to $10,000 a coin, we really need to be reinvesting at 50% still, we must grow the hashrate.

[MilkyWayMasta]

The main goal should be taking a large percentage of the hashing power, by any means necessary.

Yeah why is it no one else here wants to grow our hashrate as fast as possible?

I want to be god damn millionaire, and keeping reinvestment at a flat fiat rate robs me of that.

The percentage has to be maintain, do the math please.

Ofcourse. 25 x 6 x 24 = 3600 Bitcoin at $1000 each = $3,600,000 A DAY UP FOR GRABS!!
at $10,000 = $36,000,000 A DAY! Whoever can control this will be very wealthy.

[kingcrimson]

When I look at what happened with litecoin, I see that Active Mining still has a great shot. Massive money will flow wherever the opportunity is. I thought now that BTC is so high people might be more stingy, but clearly not.

[Stuartuk]

Yeah why is it no one else here wants to grow our hashrate as fast as possible?

I'm not sure you've done a poll have you?

If we want to grow our hashrate as quickly as possible why don't we cancel all divs for a year and use all the mined BTC to reinvest? How much do you think your shares will be worth then?

As I said there is a complex formula to work out with many variables.

[coinfresh]

Some of you guys are starting to get delusional. Keep your estimates here on earth.

[minerpart]

Some of you guys are starting to get delusional. Keep your estimates here on earth.

Do you have any estimates yourself then?

[coinfresh]

Some of you guys are starting to get delusional. Keep your estimates here on earth.

Do you have any estimates yourself then?

I don't. I am more interested in seeing estimates based in reality. DTS is talking about estimates with a btc price of $10,000. Come on. Let's be realistic. Don't let the greed get to your head.

[minerpart]

OK well why is 10k unrealistic?

EDIT

I'm also interested in that if we did get to 10k how Ken could spend 12Mill USD a month on reinvestment.

I think we would get the 24TH miner for around 100k cost price, maybe less.

So that would be 2880 TH/s. Anyone see a problem with that?

[MilkyWayMasta]

Some of you guys are starting to get delusional. Keep your estimates here on earth.

Do you have any estimates yourself then?

I don't. I am more interested in seeing estimates based in reality. DTS is talking about estimates with a btc price of $10,000. Come on. Let's be realistic. Don't let the greed get to your head.

114,425 x 0.01 = 1144.25 x $1,000 = $1,144,250  Based off reality!
114,425 x 0.02 = 2288.50 x $10,000 = $22,885,000  One can hope!

[knybe]

At one time I thought $100 was unrealistic...