[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[stenkross]

Re-post re: share price-

I'm sure some of you have heard of a thing called P/E ratio (price-earnings ratio)?

It's a very simple formula universally used for valuing a listed company and it's shares which most often involves you dividing the share price by the annualised earnings per share.

here is a basic introduction:

http://www.allstarstocks.com/gpage2.html


So instead of guessing how much you think share price will go to using your divining rod or a set of Rune stones just use the p/e ratio.

All you need to know is the total amount of BTC that will be paid out in divs to public investors in year 1 and then you divide that by the number of shares to get your annual earnings per share figure. You then choose a share price - lets say the IPO of 0.0025 and divide that by your annual earnings per share figure to get the p/e ratio.

An acceptable p/e ratio to investors in the real world would range from anything from 10:1 to 100:1 - it's going to be based around the company prospects for growth and continued business.

OK so who want's to start? Me? OK-

I think 4justice's table gave a yearly total for public investors (taking into account the drop when Kens shares get divs) of around 40k BTC.

40,000/10,000,000=0.004
0.0025/.004=0.625

So now we need to decide what P/E ratio investors will be happy with. 0.625:1 would put the share price at 0.0025 - obviously. Now if the company has solid prospects and good accounts there is a world of investors out there who would bite your right arm off to get in at a P/E ratio of 0.625:1. It's incredibly good value - so long as the company is solid.

I would say with BTC rising so commendably that a P/E ration of 10:1 would be conservative - so that would mean a share price of 0.04 > 0.04/0.004=10

Anyone please correct my arithmetic/logic and make comments.

PPS - 4justice's table is I think conservative.

40k BTC / year in dividend = 80k BTC in profit, since 50% is re-invested.
80k BTC in profit = 6% of network hashing power, or less if you can get profit from sales, but somewhere 4-5% is needed I'd guess.
On average over a whole year.

That's pretty optimistic don't you think?

I'm happy if ActM can reach 1% of total hashing power (~1/5 of what you assume).

[bobboooiie]

The whole picture and details thing is a bit silly IMO, you should just go with some automated address signing and save yourself a lot of time KEN.

[VolanicEruptor]

Cool, so anyone who doesn't have a photo can just log in to Bitfunder and take those details from their logs.

Yes, if Bitfunder comes back up.  Should anyone not have access to that information, we will use their registered Bitcoin address as a backup.

i want to understand that bolded sentence,  do you mean you have list of user and associated btc address,

The public asset list is here: https://bitfunder.com/assetlist.json.

If you can sign from the address listed, you will have no problem claiming the shares. If you can't, you can work with Ukyo using your Bitfunder account login to claim the shares. Either way I don't think there will be any problem.

There's a huge problem with that list.. all of the shares are tendered to the address of AMC-TENDER, so therefore do not show up.  This is what I was trying to warn everybody about

I meant most of the shares.  Look at the address that holds 8.5 million shares.  That's where most of us are..

[bitmoon]

Cool, so anyone who doesn't have a photo can just log in to Bitfunder and take those details from their logs.

Yes, if Bitfunder comes back up.  Should anyone not have access to that information, we will use their registered Bitcoin address as a backup.

i want to understand that bolded sentence,  do you mean you have list of user and associated btc address,

I believe when you registered for the Bitfunder account, you were required to set a public withdrawal address.  Now just pray that you remember which address you used, and that you have the ability to sign from it.  

just wanted to understand if there are other lists other than logs and public asset list.

now what happens if user signs with different address?

[SoylentCreek]

Cool, so anyone who doesn't have a photo can just log in to Bitfunder and take those details from their logs.

Yes, if Bitfunder comes back up.  Should anyone not have access to that information, we will use their registered Bitcoin address as a backup.

i want to understand that bolded sentence,  do you mean you have list of user and associated btc address,

The public asset list is here: https://bitfunder.com/assetlist.json.

If you can sign from the address listed, you will have no problem claiming the shares. If you can't, you can work with Ukyo using your Bitfunder account login to claim the shares. Either way I don't think there will be any problem.

There's a huge problem with that list.. all of the shares are tendered to the address of AMC-TENDER, so therefore do not show up.  This is what I was trying to warn everybody about

I meant most of the shares.  Look at the address that holds 8.5 million shares.  That's where most of us are..

Hence why my address is no where on that list.  

[PurpleTentacle]

Cool, so anyone who doesn't have a photo can just log in to Bitfunder and take those details from their logs.

Yes, if Bitfunder comes back up.  Should anyone not have access to that information, we will use their registered Bitcoin address as a backup.

i want to understand that bolded sentence,  do you mean you have list of user and associated btc address,

The public asset list is here: https://bitfunder.com/assetlist.json.

If you can sign from the address listed, you will have no problem claiming the shares. If you can't, you can work with Ukyo using your Bitfunder account login to claim the shares. Either way I don't think there will be any problem.

There's a huge problem with that list.. all of the shares are tendered to the address of AMC-TENDER, so therefore do not show up.  This is what I was trying to warn everybody about

I meant most of the shares.  Look at the address that holds 8.5 million shares.  That's where most of us are..

Hence why my address is no where on that list.  

Ken said that he has multiple backups of that list.

[zumzero]

Would AMC-TENDER not have a detailed record of all the shares received?

This would include dates, times and usernames and therefore email address and bitcoin public addresses.

[VolanicEruptor]

Cool, so anyone who doesn't have a photo can just log in to Bitfunder and take those details from their logs.

Yes, if Bitfunder comes back up.  Should anyone not have access to that information, we will use their registered Bitcoin address as a backup.

i want to understand that bolded sentence,  do you mean you have list of user and associated btc address,

The public asset list is here: https://bitfunder.com/assetlist.json.

If you can sign from the address listed, you will have no problem claiming the shares. If you can't, you can work with Ukyo using your Bitfunder account login to claim the shares. Either way I don't think there will be any problem.

There's a huge problem with that list.. all of the shares are tendered to the address of AMC-TENDER, so therefore do not show up.  This is what I was trying to warn everybody about

I meant most of the shares.  Look at the address that holds 8.5 million shares.  That's where most of us are..

Hence why my address is no where on that list.  

Ken said that he has multiple backups of that list.

There's a public asset list for a reason -- it's PUBLIC.
When he holds the list, it is no longer public.  
There is something very wrong with that.

Again, I was trying to explain this to you guys before and you said I was trolling

[kslaughter]

Cool, so anyone who doesn't have a photo can just log in to Bitfunder and take those details from their logs.

Yes, if Bitfunder comes back up.  Should anyone not have access to that information, we will use their registered Bitcoin address as a backup.

i want to understand that bolded sentence,  do you mean you have list of user and associated btc address,

The public asset list is here: https://bitfunder.com/assetlist.json.

If you can sign from the address listed, you will have no problem claiming the shares. If you can't, you can work with Ukyo using your Bitfunder account login to claim the shares. Either way I don't think there will be any problem.

There's a huge problem with that list.. all of the shares are tendered to the address of AMC-TENDER, so therefore do not show up.  This is what I was trying to warn everybody about

I meant most of the shares.  Look at the address that holds 8.5 million shares.  That's where most of us are..

We have a number of "Asset List" saved,  to verify your shares with the Bitcoin address you will need to send a signed message which includes the date of your transfer, your Bitfunder username, the number of shares transferred, and the email address you want Crypto-Trade to create an account with.  Of course the Bitcoin address you send the signed message from has to be in anyone of our saved "Asset List".

[minerpart]

40k BTC / year in dividend = 80k BTC in profit, since 50% is re-invested.
80k BTC in profit = 6% of network hashing power, or less if you can get profit from sales, but somewhere 4-5% is needed I'd guess.
On average over a whole year.

That's pretty optimistic don't you think?

I'm happy if ActM can reach 1% of total hashing power (~1/5 of what you assume).

No absolutely not. We were working off 10% network, btc at 1k USD and conservative sales.

If you look at Ken's own predictions ('Details'on the new exchange) you will see he expects to receive 40Mill in sales from VMC in the next year. He will use 20Mill of this to build what he describes as 'the Biggest Mining Farm in the world'. So 10% is conservative and means the price of 0.04 is also possibly conservative - it depends on the P/E ratio investors are happy to accept in a Bitcoin company. What is for sure, the longer we farm and the more we become established the higher our share price will go.

[Vigil]

Re-post re: share price-

I'm sure some of you have heard of a thing called P/E ratio (price-earnings ratio)?

It's a very simple formula universally used for valuing a listed company and it's shares which most often involves you dividing the share price by the annualised earnings per share.

here is a basic introduction:

http://www.allstarstocks.com/gpage2.html


So instead of guessing how much you think share price will go to using your divining rod or a set of Rune stones just use the p/e ratio.

All you need to know is the total amount of BTC that will be paid out in divs to public investors in year 1 and then you divide that by the number of shares to get your annual earnings per share figure. You then choose a share price - lets say the IPO of 0.0025 and divide that by your annual earnings per share figure to get the p/e ratio.

An acceptable p/e ratio to investors in the real world would range from anything from 10:1 to 100:1 - it's going to be based around the company prospects for growth and continued business.

OK so who want's to start? Me? OK-

I think 4justice's table gave a yearly total for public investors (taking into account the drop when Kens shares get divs) of around 40k BTC.

40,000/10,000,000=0.004
0.0025/.004=0.625

So now we need to decide what P/E ratio investors will be happy with. 0.625:1 would put the share price at 0.0025 - obviously. Now if the company has solid prospects and good accounts there is a world of investors out there who would bite your right arm off to get in at a P/E ratio of 0.625:1. It's incredibly good value - so long as the company is solid.

I would say with BTC rising so commendably that a P/E ration of 10:1 would be conservative - so that would mean a share price of 0.04 > 0.04/0.004=10

Anyone please correct my arithmetic/logic and make comments.

PPS - 4justice's table is I think conservative.

Are you saying here that we need to view this from a perspective of investors who are wishing to cash-out in dollars? Suppose the share price was 0.04 and an investor decided to invest BTC50, they would only have 1250 shares. Assuming they got the .0025 per share, their payout would over that time interval come to BTC3.125. That isn't all that much for a BTC50 investment. In current dollar terms that would be about $3000.

[knybe]

There's a public asset list for a reason -- it's PUBLIC.
When he holds the list, it is no longer public.  
There is something very wrong with that.

Again, I was trying to explain this to you guys before and you said I was trolling

the thing is… even when we get all of our respective shares, and even when this company is up and running and even when we all start getting decent dividends and even when the share price goes above .0025…

even after all that takes place…

you'll still find something to freakout and be paranoid about.

[kslaughter]

Would AMC-TENDER not have a detailed record of all the shares received?

This would include dates, times and usernames and therefore email address and bitcoin public addresses.

The transaction log has all of the above, plus the number of shares transferred, except email addresses and Bitcoin public address.  In the verification process we will check the above information in our transaction logs against what the user enters to verify the transaction, the user will add his email that he wants to use on Crypto-Trade.

[SoylentCreek]

Cool, so anyone who doesn't have a photo can just log in to Bitfunder and take those details from their logs.

Yes, if Bitfunder comes back up.  Should anyone not have access to that information, we will use their registered Bitcoin address as a backup.

i want to understand that bolded sentence,  do you mean you have list of user and associated btc address,

The public asset list is here: https://bitfunder.com/assetlist.json.

If you can sign from the address listed, you will have no problem claiming the shares. If you can't, you can work with Ukyo using your Bitfunder account login to claim the shares. Either way I don't think there will be any problem.

There's a huge problem with that list.. all of the shares are tendered to the address of AMC-TENDER, so therefore do not show up.  This is what I was trying to warn everybody about

I meant most of the shares.  Look at the address that holds 8.5 million shares.  That's where most of us are..

We have a number of "Asset List" saved,  to verify your shares with the Bitcoin address you will need to send a signed message which includes the date of your transfer, your Bitfunder username, the number of shares transferred, and the email address you want Crypto-Trade to create an account with.  Of course the Bitcoin address you send the signed message from has to be in anyone of our saved "Asset List".

What happens if we do not remember what day we initiated the transfer?  I understand that there will be little need to worry assuming Bitfunder is brought back online, but the only person who knows when or if that will happen is Ukyo.  

Edit: Never mind, already answered.  One last question, what happens if the withdrawal address was one that could not be signed from (say a paper wallet)?

[bitmoon]

Cool, so anyone who doesn't have a photo can just log in to Bitfunder and take those details from their logs.

Yes, if Bitfunder comes back up.  Should anyone not have access to that information, we will use their registered Bitcoin address as a backup.

i want to understand that bolded sentence,  do you mean you have list of user and associated btc address,

The public asset list is here: https://bitfunder.com/assetlist.json.

If you can sign from the address listed, you will have no problem claiming the shares. If you can't, you can work with Ukyo using your Bitfunder account login to claim the shares. Either way I don't think there will be any problem.

There's a huge problem with that list.. all of the shares are tendered to the address of AMC-TENDER, so therefore do not show up.  This is what I was trying to warn everybody about

I meant most of the shares.  Look at the address that holds 8.5 million shares.  That's where most of us are..

We have a number of "Asset List" saved,  to verify your shares with the Bitcoin address you will need to send a signed message which includes the date of your transfer, your Bitfunder username, the number of shares transferred, and the email address you want Crypto-Trade to create an account with.  Of course the Bitcoin address you send the signed message from has to be in anyone of our saved "Asset List".

bingo ken, thats what i wanted to hear

[minerpart]

Are you saying here that we need to view this from a perspective of investors who are wishing to cash-out in dollars?

No, dollars are not the issue with share price. The issue is return of BTC fo BTC invested. A P/E ratio of 10:1 gives you 10BTC back for every 100BTC invested. You cannot get that return in a bank, safely with a penny stock or in a hedge fund after they have taken their fees. A 10% annual return is a huge return - especially in a heavily appreciating currency.

[bitmoon]

I've had an account on Crytpo-Trade for a long time.  How will my ACTM shares get uploaded to my pre-existing account?

This is just a guess.  I think that Ken is getting the Database file from Bitfunder that lists all the shares that were transferred to his account referenced with the email of the sender. That DB file will be given to Crypto-Trade to be integrated in too there sever and auto make the accounts. We will then use our Bitfunder email and a password that is emailed to us to access our accounts. That's how I would do it if I had to.

I asked ken this question in a PM as I am in the same boat.  He said we will be fine with a preexisting account.  Didn't mention anything of like emails on BITFUNDER & CT though.

The transfer of shares from AMC-TENDER to Crypto-Trade will be an automated site to verify your shares, you will need your email address you want to register as a account on Crypto-Trade (fine if you already have an account using that email, shares will just be added to that account), number of shares transferred to AMC-TENDER, and your AMC-TENDER transfer date and time of transfer (from your Bitfunder transfer logs, or from the screenshot you made of the transfer).  We will have an announcement with the complete details as soon as the automated site is ready.

no need for user name?

[kslaughter]

Cool, so anyone who doesn't have a photo can just log in to Bitfunder and take those details from their logs.

Yes, if Bitfunder comes back up.  Should anyone not have access to that information, we will use their registered Bitcoin address as a backup.

i want to understand that bolded sentence,  do you mean you have list of user and associated btc address,

The public asset list is here: https://bitfunder.com/assetlist.json.

If you can sign from the address listed, you will have no problem claiming the shares. If you can't, you can work with Ukyo using your Bitfunder account login to claim the shares. Either way I don't think there will be any problem.

There's a huge problem with that list.. all of the shares are tendered to the address of AMC-TENDER, so therefore do not show up.  This is what I was trying to warn everybody about

I meant most of the shares.  Look at the address that holds 8.5 million shares.  That's where most of us are..

We have a number of "Asset List" saved,  to verify your shares with the Bitcoin address you will need to send a signed message which includes the date of your transfer, your Bitfunder username, the number of shares transferred, and the email address you want Crypto-Trade to create an account with.  Of course the Bitcoin address you send the signed message from has to be in anyone of our saved "Asset List".

bingo ken, thats what i wanted to hear

No this is not the primary verification, this is the backup verification system.  So don't start sending these signed messages unless I ask you to send one.

[kslaughter]

Cool, so anyone who doesn't have a photo can just log in to Bitfunder and take those details from their logs.

Yes, if Bitfunder comes back up.  Should anyone not have access to that information, we will use their registered Bitcoin address as a backup.

i want to understand that bolded sentence,  do you mean you have list of user and associated btc address,

The public asset list is here: https://bitfunder.com/assetlist.json.

If you can sign from the address listed, you will have no problem claiming the shares. If you can't, you can work with Ukyo using your Bitfunder account login to claim the shares. Either way I don't think there will be any problem.

There's a huge problem with that list.. all of the shares are tendered to the address of AMC-TENDER, so therefore do not show up.  This is what I was trying to warn everybody about

I meant most of the shares.  Look at the address that holds 8.5 million shares.  That's where most of us are..

We have a number of "Asset List" saved,  to verify your shares with the Bitcoin address you will need to send a signed message which includes the date of your transfer, your Bitfunder username, the number of shares transferred, and the email address you want Crypto-Trade to create an account with.  Of course the Bitcoin address you send the signed message from has to be in anyone of our saved "Asset List".

What happens if we do not remember what day we initiated the transfer?  I understand that there will be little need to worry assuming Bitfunder is brought back online, but the only person who knows when or if that will happen is Ukyo.  

Edit: Never mind, already answered.  One last question, what happens if the withdrawal address was one that could not be signed from (say a paper wallet)?

Well, if you have been reading the thread, we have said a number of times that you need to be able to sign the message, again this is just the backup system.

[Stuartuk]

Ken what about the time-stamp we need to enter. I think we were all given a time-stamp in our local times?

Ken, when you say you'll need the date and time of share transfer, do I have to convert it to your time zone?