You're really thinking BTC will dip that low? I have a hard time seeing that despite what current trends suggest. With so many missing already (lost in inaccessible wallets), the amount in circulation is less than mined which affects supply and demand protocols. Furthermore, the cost to mine is increasing, along with the global acceptance rates---ATM's are sprouting up in droves. I think it will begin to rebound once these more robust, compliant exchanges come into fruition. This will allow the average, non technical user to get involved and allow much more efficient trading. I can certainly see the volatility decreasing but as for the price, well, it really could go in either direction. Who knows.
What people fail to see is, the price is arbitrary, the coin can survive at 10$ a coin, it doesn't matter what the price of BTC is.
What is important for someone speculating on the price is, the revolving door value.
How much money flows into BTC and how much money flows out of BTC.
There are plenty of coins in circulation, I would say there are more coins in circulation than demand actually needs, thus we have a decreasing price.
Bitcoin WILL hit 250$ then 100$ then maybe even 50$ at some point, my target is 250$ "ish" by August, the demand for bitcoins just isn't there, because bitcoin fails to solve any real world problems, the only advantage for bitcoin is low transfer fees to send money from point A to point B, and that is only the case if you immediately convert USD to BTC then at your destination you instantly convert BTC back to your local currency.
The amount of users using the coin, will give it a revolving door value, sure, this is guaranteed, but the current price of 400$+ is un-warranted, and un-necessary, and was the product of rampant speculation, which is now dying down.
As bitcoin gains adoption, people will invest in the INDUSTRY not the coin, they will invest in companies manufacturing
-Mining hardware
-Atms
-Point of Sales systems
Dumping money into BTC is not an "investment" into the coin, its simply speculating and hoping that enough new users will hop onboard to increase the revolving door value.
I just don't see it as a good short term investment, best thing to do, would be to wait for 100$ mark, buy , hold for 4 ~ 5 years while it gains users, its way too early and way too expensive still IMO.
But I am no expert, so what does my opinion count for? absolutely nothing
its just what I SEE happening, and perspectives are unique to the viewer.
you have to also take into account the current inflation rate for BTC is pretty high ( last I checked it was around 10~11%), that means that in order to keep the current price, 11~12% MORE $$$$ has to flow into BTC to meet the inflation.
