BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[jl2012]

I actually gotta say that seeing the latest version of the graph is rather scary! :/ It isn't unprecedented that we went this far down, yet we're now in a relative state of mainstream adoption and already tapped some of Bitcoin's potential, so I don't hope this means decision time already, and people decided against it...

It may just mean we will follow a less steep exponential trend, or even a linear trend. Obviously, the exponential trend has to be broken someday or we will be able to buy everything in the world in 10 years.

[1714477767]

1714477767

[oda.krell]

I actually gotta say that seeing the latest version of the graph is rather scary! :/ It isn't unprecedented that we went this far down, yet we're now in a relative state of mainstream adoption and already tapped some of Bitcoin's potential, so I don't hope this means decision time already, and people decided against it...

It may just mean we will follow a less steep exponential trend, or even a linear trend. Obviously, the exponential trend has to be broken someday or we will be able to buy everything in the world in 10 years.

Then again, in terms of deviation from the best estimate of the trendline at the time, we're still nowhere near to 2011 levels, so it's probably too early to declare defeat (of the model)

[Chef Ramsay]

I actually gotta say that seeing the latest version of the graph is rather scary! :/ It isn't unprecedented that we went this far down, yet we're now in a relative state of mainstream adoption and already tapped some of Bitcoin's potential, so I don't hope this means decision time already, and people decided against it...

At this point there's really no reason why the general public should care or want to use bitcoin in lieu of traditional payments. Most of the merchants that take bitcoin don't offer any substantial reason for people to want to pay w/ it and if they do they certainly don't advertise it. The small % of people that are buyers/holders/users has clearly increased quite a bit since last year which is why the price is being sustained at 2-3 times last summer's price. The trajectory is going up not down in terms of more people learning about and wanting have a piece of the action all over the world. Now, there's way more exchanges in plenty of countries not to mention all the ATMs which will help the next rally in epic form when the next trigger sets it off.

[Driv3n]

Would love to see another update now that we're down below $400... are we closing in on the 2012 lows?

[rebel24]

Would love to see another update now that we're down below $400... are we closing in on the 2012 lows?

you can do it by hand, its ln $378/1700
(ln as in the calculator function)

[Driv3n]

Would love to see another update now that we're down below $400... are we closing in on the 2012 lows?

you can do it by hand, its ln $378/1700
(ln as in the calculator function)

Awesome thanks, so ln(actual price/expected price)?

Much appreciated, looks like were still doing a lot better than the low point in 2012.

[jl2012]

Date:    29-Sep-2014
VWAP:    376.98
x:    1535
a:    0.00578
b:    -1.69322
Rsq:    0.90345
The day's expected price:    1305.52
Actual price / expected price:   28.88%
Predicted date for today's price:    25-Feb-2014
Days ahead:    -215.02
Daily price rank:    321
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    8-Sep-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00577692701191043++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.6932246440403+%29   

[jl2012]

[jl2012]

Looks bad? Yes. But if we could go >1.5 at a bubble, going to -1.25 occasionally is very likely in long-term. Just an inverted bubble.

[Wary]

So, rough estimate:

[intighet]

Looks bad? Yes. But if we could go >1.5 at a bubble, going to -1.25 occasionally is very likely in long-term. Just an inverted bubble.

It does not look bad. It looks like a classic technical oscillator. The lower we go, the more oversold the asset becomes...

[statdude]

So you're calling a bottom at 230?

[Wary]

So you're calling a bottom at 230?

My crystal ball isn't good enough to make definite calls. I see conflicting signals. This chart seems to predicts 6-week drop to 230 with following steep rise.  From the other hand, weekly MACD histogram seems to predicts 8-week rise starting next week. (Sorry, can't show it, bitcoiwisdom is down).

Choose either call or make your own.

[mmortal03]

So you're calling a bottom at 230?

My crystal ball isn't good enough to make definite calls. I see conflicting signals. This chart seems to predicts 6-week drop to 230 with following steep rise.  From the other hand, weekly MACD histogram seems to predicts 8-week rise starting next week. (Sorry, can't show it, bitcoiwisdom is down).

Choose either call or make your own.

Where are we at on this prediction, Wary?

[Wary]

So you're calling a bottom at 230?

My crystal ball isn't good enough to make definite calls. I see conflicting signals. This chart seems to predicts 6-week drop to 230 with following steep rise.  From the other hand, weekly MACD histogram seems to predicts 8-week rise starting next week. (Sorry, can't show it, bitcoiwisdom is down).

Choose either call or make your own.

Where are we at on this prediction, Wary?

Either 275 was THE bottom and we are already on upcurve or there is one more dip to go. So, basically price will go up or down    I'm in.

It would be interesting to see updated graph from jl2012.

[Biodom]

So you're calling a bottom at 230?

My crystal ball isn't good enough to make definite calls. I see conflicting signals. This chart seems to predicts 6-week drop to 230 with following steep rise.  From the other hand, weekly MACD histogram seems to predicts 8-week rise starting next week. (Sorry, can't show it, bitcoiwisdom is down).

Choose either call or make your own.

Where are we at on this prediction, Wary?

Either 275 was THE bottom and we are already on upcurve or there is one more dip to go. So, basically price will go up or down    I'm in.

It would be interesting to see updated graph from jl2012.

If he uses ln (I think that he does), then current point is ~-1.52=ln(360/1654)
We can either reverse from here or lose another 30% on a final technical plunge or some negative news.
In any case, I agree that it is 50:50 between these two scenarios (current low vs low at -2.25).
I bought some BTC today, though.

[jl2012]

Update:

Date:    9-Nov-2014
VWAP:    355.74
x:    1576
a:    0.00564
b:    -1.62210
Rsq:    0.90024
The day's expected price:    1431.61
Actual price / expected price:   24.85%
Predicted date for today's price:    7-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -246.87
Daily price rank:    342
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    3-Oct-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00564000565964427++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.62209555090747+%29   

[jl2012]

It is noted that the Rsq, peaked at 0.90377, is decreasing since 17 Sept. It suggests that the price now is so low that it substantially deviates from the trend line.

[jl2012]

It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011.

[Biodom]

https://i.imgur.com/NSooYC5.png

It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011.

Interesting. Do you dynamically adjust the formula? When I link to the latest, trend prediction is $1439, but when I connect to several days earlier link, then it is $1654.
In any case it is around -1.50, but I am curious why two different links result in a variable outcome (1439 vs 1654).