BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[DieJohnny]

If we are in a bubble, even a mini one, how high it may go? The Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index (BETI) may give us some hints. The mid-2012 mini bubble went from -1.25 to -0.5 (+0.75). The early-2013 bubble went from -0.75 to 1.5 (+2.25). The late-2013 bubble went from -0.125 to 1.625 (+1.75).

After the long bear trend, I believe we are more likely in a mini bubble like the mid-2012 one, that may send us from -2 to -1.25 (+0.75) in a few weeks. In that case, the target price will be around $530 for this mini bubble. A full bubble may happen next year around halving which will create a new ATH and push BETI above 0.

In my opinion a full bubble will likely follow in less than three months but no sooner than one month after the mini-bubble.

The full bubble might be on a scale we haven't seen before.

This might be wishful thinking, but most of the charts seem positive on this.

I don't think it is wishful thinking. Compare today with Dec 2013, who was speculating and ABLE to buy bitcoin in 2013 compared to today. It makes completely rational sense that the top will be vastly higher than in 2013 even with Gox fraud willy bot.

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[jl2012]

The BETI is hovering around -1.5 again, as it did in Q3-Q4 2014 before it dropped to -2

Date:    4-Nov-2015
BETI   -1.425
VWAP:    445.45
x:    1936
a:    0.00433
b:    -0.85446
Rsq:    0.82320
The day's expected price:    1852.62
Actual price / expected price:   24.04%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   199.46
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11993.60
Predicted date for today's price:    9-Dec-2014
Days ahead:    -329.32
Daily price rank:    287
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00432789851500657++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.854456057168578+%29   

[jehst]

The BETI is hovering around -1.5 again, as it did in Q3-Q4 2014 before it dropped to -2

So we need to break through to $600 soon?

[jl2012]

The BETI is hovering around -1.5 again, as it did in Q3-Q4 2014 before it dropped to -2

So we need to break through to $600 soon?

I hope it could be stable above -1.5, around 412

[StarenseN]

Following

[jl2012]

BETI was down below -1.5 again yesterday. Going lower today. Support should be -1.75 at $322


Date:    5-Nov-2015
BETI   -1.529
VWAP:    401.92
x:    1937
a:    0.00433
b:    -0.85287
Rsq:    0.82312
The day's expected price:    1854.76
Actual price / expected price:   21.67%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   199.69
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   12007.45
Predicted date for today's price:    16-Nov-2014
Days ahead:    -353.55
Daily price rank:    319
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00432543901681942++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.852866194739526+%29   

[jl2012]

BETI is around the -1.75 support

Date:    13-Nov-2015
BETI   -1.721
VWAP:    334.06
x:    1945
a:    0.00430
b:    -0.83911
Rsq:    0.82217
The day's expected price:    1867.90
Actual price / expected price:   17.88%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   201.10
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   12092.50
Predicted date for today's price:    9-Oct-2014
Days ahead:    -399.90
Daily price rank:    405
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00430420239495335++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.83910602987819+%29   

[jl2012]

Update:

Date:    28-Nov-2015
BETI   -1.672
VWAP:    354.66
x:    1960
a:    0.00426
b:    -0.81231
Rsq:    0.82006
The day's expected price:    1888.11
Actual price / expected price:   18.78%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   203.28
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   12223.37
Predicted date for today's price:    31-Oct-2014
Days ahead:    -392.25
Daily price rank:    382
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.0042630799741331++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.812305062248869+%29   

[jl2012]

[Wilhelm]

I'm waiting for the +1.87 high to get broken 

[ssmc2]

One of the few remaining threads that's worth coming back to this forum for.

[uki]

I will quote my previous post, as the recent run up showed exactly what I was talking about. Even in a quite bubble-like event we had recently, when price spiked at $502 and the daily RSI went to 90 (see charts on the previous page), we hardly touched -1.5 of BETI. That clearly shows that the expected value is overshoot by far. That is because the initial data is misleading the trend settings.

Probably this question was already asked in here back at the early days of this thread, but I will try to bring this issue into a discussion once again.
Whenever I am running simulation or an experiment, I am interested in a stationary process. Meaning the initial (warm-up) behaviour should not have been considered when talking about long-term trend. Have you tried to remove the first two years of data and redraw your charts? I am wondering if that would correct your expected values to a more reasonable levels, as for today it seems that the chart will be stuck in the -2 area even with slowly rising prices, and only a bubble-like event could bring us to -1 values, not to mention even the expected price.

[jl2012]

An interesting feature of my analysis is it will self correct after a long bull or bear period.

Take my update on 19 Dec 2014 as example:

Date:    19-Dec-2014
VWAP:    313.31
x:    1616
a:    0.00551
b:    -1.55140
Rsq:    0.89664
The day's expected price:    1553.94
Actual price / expected price:   20.16%
Log(Actual price / expected price):   -1.601
Predicted date for today's price:    3-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -290.77
Daily price rank:    405
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    27-Oct-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00550739267993612++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.5513992248266+%29   

By clicking the link in the quote, you will find that the expected price for today (30 Nov 2015) is $10447. With the latest model, however, it is only $1888.11.

This is because the slope of the regression line is decreasing for everyday the price is under the expected value. If the VWAP sticks to the present value of $360 forever, the expected price will converge to $360 and the slope will also converge to 0 eventually.

I will quote my previous post, as the recent run up showed exactly what I was talking about. Even in a quite bubble-like event we had recently, when price spiked at $502 and the daily RSI went to 90 (see charts on the previous page), we hardly touched -1.5 of BETI. That clearly shows that the expected value is overshoot by far. That is because the initial data is misleading the trend settings.

Probably this question was already asked in here back at the early days of this thread, but I will try to bring this issue into a discussion once again.
Whenever I am running simulation or an experiment, I am interested in a stationary process. Meaning the initial (warm-up) behaviour should not have been considered when talking about long-term trend. Have you tried to remove the first two years of data and redraw your charts? I am wondering if that would correct your expected values to a more reasonable levels, as for today it seems that the chart will be stuck in the -2 area even with slowly rising prices, and only a bubble-like event could bring us to -1 values, not to mention even the expected price.

[uki]

An interesting feature of my analysis is it will self correct after a long bull or bear period.

Take my update on 19 Dec 2014 as example:

Date:    19-Dec-2014
VWAP:    313.31
x:    1616
a:    0.00551
b:    -1.55140
Rsq:    0.89664
The day's expected price:    1553.94
Actual price / expected price:   20.16%
Log(Actual price / expected price):   -1.601
Predicted date for today's price:    3-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -290.77
Daily price rank:    405
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    27-Oct-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00550739267993612++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.5513992248266+%29   

By clicking the link in the quote, you will find that the expected price for today (30 Nov 2015) is $10447. With the latest model, however, it is only $1888.11.

This is because the slope of the regression line is decreasing for everyday the price is under the expected value. If the VWAP sticks to the present value of $360 forever, the expected price will converge to $360 and the slope will also converge to 0 eventually.

Thanks for the answer and pointing that out to me. this latest model seems to fit slightly better Bitcoin's price behaviour. Still, it looks like the first 2009-2014 bull run (all what happened before Mt. Gox's crash must be considered as one very long bull spell, as the earlier corrections were steep but relatively short) overwhelms the prediction a little bit. Will be watching closely if the expected value stabilises. Optimally, you would like to move within -1 and +1 band, with only extreme events taking you outside of it for a short time. Currently, I don't consider we are extremely oversold and thus my comment.

[QuintLeo]

Technical analysis on a market as immature as Bitcoin is a joke.

 IMO ignore this thread and watch Bitcoin-related news, it has infinitely more effect on Bitcoin price moves than anything "technical analysis" looks at does.

[oda.krell]

Technical analysis on a market as immature as Bitcoin is a joke.

 IMO ignore this thread and watch Bitcoin-related news, it has infinitely more effect on Bitcoin price moves than anything "technical analysis" looks at does.

You realize that, in all likelihood, the opposite is true?

The more mature the market, the more it seems to tend towards efficiency (or at least, efficiency as "unbeatableness by retail TA methods").

If you're interested, I'll dig up the financial research articles on the matter, but I have  feeling you're not overly interested in that, right?

[StarenseN]

Technical analysis on a market as immature as Bitcoin is a joke.

 IMO ignore this thread and watch Bitcoin-related news, it has infinitely more effect on Bitcoin price moves than anything "technical analysis" looks at does.

Good luck knowing how a "news", which is generaly old the time it's out of the press, will affect the price.
You'll need to spend many hours or days with an amount of ressources and data (you generaly not have) to finally get a conclusion. With a high risk it's not even true.

During this high energy and time consumption, market which is always right would already have sorted the conclusions by printing the dynamic and the price equilibrium. The latter is very valuable.

[tmfp]

I've been watching this thread with interest, thanks, it's quite thought provoking.

Although I've only been trading BTC derivatives for just over a year, I have been reasonably profitable using pretty standard TA tools, mainly short term stochastic and rsi, my favorites from fiat index trading.

Re: trading on "news", good luck with that.

[uki]

Technical analysis on a market as immature as Bitcoin is a joke.

 IMO ignore this thread and watch Bitcoin-related news, it has infinitely more effect on Bitcoin price moves than anything "technical analysis" looks at does.

You realize that, in all likelihood, the opposite is true?

The more mature the market, the more it seems to tend towards efficiency (or at least, efficiency as "unbeatableness by retail TA methods").

If you're interested, I'll dig up the financial research articles on the matter, but I have  feeling you're not overly interested in that, right?

I would be definitely interested in reading it, if you could drop me the link (pm).
And whereas I may have objections on whether to include or not the very initial phase (pre-$35 price) into the forecast, which I already expressed in my earlier posts, I definitely appreciate the effort!

[StarenseN]

Technical analysis on a market as immature as Bitcoin is a joke.

 IMO ignore this thread and watch Bitcoin-related news, it has infinitely more effect on Bitcoin price moves than anything "technical analysis" looks at does.

You realize that, in all likelihood, the opposite is true?

The more mature the market, the more it seems to tend towards efficiency (or at least, efficiency as "unbeatableness by retail TA methods").

If you're interested, I'll dig up the financial research articles on the matter, but I have  feeling you're not overly interested in that, right?

I would be definitely interested in reading it, if you could drop me the link (pm).
And whereas I may have objections on whether to include or not the very initial phase (pre-$35 price) into the forecast, which I already expressed in my earlier posts, I definitely appreciate the effort!

Amount like thousands coins were exchanged and accumulated per actors and trades during the first (2) year. It was already writing the fate of bitcoin, I think they are part of the market, it shouldn't be removed.