BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[jl2012]

Thanks for the update! Always liked this thread. So do you think we'll encounter more resistance at -1.2?

-1.2 would be $683

[1714501647]

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[jehst]

Thanks for the update! Always liked this thread. So do you think we'll encounter more resistance at -1.2?

Forget -1.2. We're going back to 0.

[Bagatell]

@jl2012

What would +2.00 be?

[jl2012]

@jl2012

What would +2.00 be?

Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   14693.72

+2 is $16770

[jl2012]

Thanks for the update! Always liked this thread. So do you think we'll encounter more resistance at -1.2?

-1.2 would be $683

$680 seems to be a very interesting resistance level, suggested by other analysis with different method

https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/long-term-update-static-resistance/

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edit: please note that the local peaks at -1.2 during Oct-Nov 2014 were about $400. Since the trend is increasing, -1.2 at mid-June 2016 would be about $680



The BETI for breaking the $1126 ATH will be around -0.7

[jl2012]

Quick update: we are approaching the important -1.2 resistance

Date:    12-Jun-2016
BETI:    -1.264
VWAP:    643.09
x:    2157
a:    0.00382
b:    -0.50782
Rsq:    0.80308
The day's expected price:    2276.03
Actual price / expected price:   28.26%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   245.04
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   14734.71
Predicted date for today's price:    17-Jul-2015
Days ahead:    -330.93
Daily price rank:    96
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00381919878544692++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.50782352070271+%29   

[jl2012]

Quick update: we are above -1.2 for the first time since Sept 2014

Date:    13-Jun-2016
BETI:    -1.193
VWAP:    691.45
x:    2158
a:    0.00382
b:    -0.50671
Rsq:    0.80310
The day's expected price:    2279.68
Actual price / expected price:   30.33%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   245.44
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   14758.35
Predicted date for today's price:    5-Aug-2015
Days ahead:    -312.49
Daily price rank:    72
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00381765747919362++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.506713432324879+%29   

[jl2012]

mid-day update:

Date:    16-Jun-2016
BETI:    -1.157
VWAP:    720.57

-1.2 is now around $685. It looks like a breakout from the -1.2 resistance.

[Equilux]

mid-day update:

Date:    16-Jun-2016
BETI:    -1.157
VWAP:    720.57

-1.2 is now around $685. It looks like a breakout from the -1.2 resistance.

Thanks for the frequent updates in these more exciting times

[jl2012]

Date:    16-Jun-2016
BETI   -1.132
VWAP:    738.45
x:    2161
a:    0.00381
b:    -0.50342
Rsq:    0.80315
The day's expected price:    2290.80
Actual price / expected price:   32.24%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   246.63
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   14830.31
Predicted date for today's price:    24-Aug-2015
Days ahead:    -296.90
Daily price rank:    60
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00381308220797985++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.503415179191674+%29   

[jl2012]

mid-day update:

Date:    17-Jun-2016
BETI:           -1.089
VWAP:    772.58

Not too far away from the ATH ($1126) at -0.712

[jl2012]

Date:    19-Jun-2016
BETI:   -1.116
VWAP:    754.72
x:    2164
a:    0.00381
b:    -0.50029
Rsq:    0.80325
The day's expected price:    2302.74
Actual price / expected price:   32.77%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   247.92
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   14907.66
Predicted date for today's price:    31-Aug-2015
Days ahead:    -292.88
Daily price rank:    58
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00380875683195971++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.500292709966313+%29   

[birr]

A permanent exponential growth model is unrealistic.  You should be fitting this data to a logistic curve.  The logistic model has at least two parameters more than the naive exponential model has,
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.*  Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin.  Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.

[jehst]

A permanent exponential growth model is unrealistic.  You should be fitting this data to a logistic curve.  The logistic model has at least two parameters more than the naive exponential model has,
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.*  Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin.  Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.

Please show us.

[birr]

The logistic curve models an idealization of the fact that nothing grows forever.  Every market matures, or approaches saturation.  The logistic curve probably has little practical use for predicting price, but expecting unbounded exponential increase is even less realistic.  The logistic essentially models bounded exponential growth.
"Sigmoid" and "logistic" are more or less synonymous.  The word sigmoid describes the shape of the logistic adoption curve, which looks like an S on a linear chart.  On a log chart it looks different, of course.
Here's a graph of the log of the sigmoid function.  I like to call it the "log logistic."  I'm funny like that.
http://m.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=y%3Dlog%281%2F%281%2Be%5E%28-x%29%29%29%2C-10%3C%3Dx%3C%3D10%2C-10%3C%3Dy%3C%3D1&x=11&y=7
The sigmoid or logistic function can be expressed as y=1/(1+e^-x)
The left half of the log logistic is a straight line: exponential growth.  The knee comes at x=0, and growth levels off.
The sigmoid has asymptotes at 0 and 1.
The sigmoid is the tanh (hyperbolic tangent) function shifted and scaled.  Tanh has asymptotes at -1 and 1. Shrink it by half and move it up a little, and you have the logistic function.

I thought the Excel method I linked to in the previous post looked like the simplest way to curve-fit data on the logistic.

[rpietila]

The logistic curve models an idealization of the fact that nothing grows forever.  Every market matures, or approaches saturation.  The logistic curve probably has little practical use for predicting price, but expecting unbounded exponential increase is even less realistic.
- -
I thought the Excel method I linked to in the previous post looked like the simplest way to curve-fit data on the logistic.

It's been a long time since I last done such exercises (2013-14). But until then, the logistic just was the best fit to the prices. As we know, the best fit is the one with least average deviation from the dataset. Many were voicing their opinions then as well as now, supporting some other trendline model. I'd like to see the R^2 values to support the opinions.

[zimmah]

A permanent exponential growth model is unrealistic.  You should be fitting this data to a logistic curve.  The logistic model has at least two parameters more than the naive exponential model has,
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.*  Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin.  Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.

yes, but we aren't anywhere near market saturation.

the only reason a permanent exponential model is unrealistic, is because at some point you run out of room to grow. Bitcoin has a lot of room left to grow, so until we start getting close to the limit, an exponential model s perfectly fine.

in fact a logistic curve is nothing more than an exponential model that is curved off at the top. Since we're not anywhere near the top yet, these are identical for now and the foreseeable future.

[jehst]

A permanent exponential growth model is unrealistic.  You should be fitting this data to a logistic curve.  The logistic model has at least two parameters more than the naive exponential model has,
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.*  Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin.  Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.

yes, but we aren't anywhere near market saturation.

the only reason a permanent exponential model is unrealistic, is because at some point you run out of room to grow. Bitcoin has a lot of room left to grow, so until we start getting close to the limit, an exponential model s perfectly fine.

in fact a logistic curve is nothing more than an exponential model that is curved off at the top. Since we're not anywhere near the top yet, these are identical for now and the foreseeable future.

Yes, let's start worrying about the plateau when bitcoin has a 2 trillion dollar market cap.

[jl2012]

Date:    28-Oct-2016
BETI   -1.368
VWAP:    684.53
x:    2295
a:    0.00359
b:    -0.33497
Rsq:    0.79921
The day's expected price:    2687.46
Actual price / expected price:   25.47%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   289.34
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   17398.26
Predicted date for today's price:    12-Oct-2015
Days ahead:    -381.31
Daily price rank:    79
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00358663255255302++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.334969405265711+%29   

[jl2012]

So even the BFX hack did not bring us below -1.5. Hope we will not see any level below it again (in this cycle)

We are at about -1.35 now, and broke the resistance level at -1.4. The next target is -1.3 (the pre BFX hack level), now at $732; and the previous peak at -1.1, now at $894. There is no obvious resistance level beyond -1.1

The ATH $1126 is currently -0.87