BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[DieJohnny]

How long until you reckon we departed an exponential line long ago? It's obviously slowing down irreversibly since 2014.

This whole thread explains where we are on the exponential growth trend line. We are essentially right on the exponential trend right now with an apparent acceleration the last six weeks. I think that each Bitcoin bubble will always end in 3-6 weeks of near vertical movement, which we haven't started yet. At this rate I would expect the last vertical push to start around $12k as I draw my lines. From there if we had 3-6 weeks of vertical push upwards I think we land on $30k per coin. This could be within 4 months.

[1714489255]

1714489255

[1714489255]

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[Wekkel]

That sounds like a reasonable projection.

[Pruden]

It is above the 0-line so what do you mean with ‘slowing down’?

How about taking a look at the red line here?

tl;dr: Everyday that goes by (except for a few weeks in a bubble), the exponent gets lower (red line rises slower) and correlation coefficient gets worse because this is not and has never been an exponential curve, and this will become more relevant as we leave the explosive first years further behind.

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.

For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)

Oh how I dreamed of today back then!

You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway

[jl2012]

If price stays above $7900 today, we will see a new BETI high of 0.237

Date:   16-Nov-2017
BETI:   0.196
VWAP:   7562.03
x:   2,679
a:   0.003299
b:   -0.103199
Rsq:   0.830922
Expected price:   6213.90
Actual price / expected price:   121.70%
BETI ATL price:   669.00
BETI ATH price:   40227.95
Expected date:   14-Jan-2018
# of days ahead:   59.52
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6234.43
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329889623063994++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.103198862334542+%29   

[criptix]

If price stays above $7900 today, we will see a new BETI high of 0.237

Date:   16-Nov-2017
BETI:   0.196
VWAP:   7562.03
x:   2,679
a:   0.003299
b:   -0.103199
Rsq:   0.830922
Expected price:   6213.90
Actual price / expected price:   121.70%
BETI ATL price:   669.00
BETI ATH price:   40227.95
Expected date:   14-Jan-2018
# of days ahead:   59.52
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6234.43
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329889623063994++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.103198862334542+%29   

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

That would be fu**ing crazy.  

[andpr]

Maybe this is already explained somewhere, but how do you obtain "a" and "b" values?

[DieJohnny]

If price stays above $7900 today, we will see a new BETI high of 0.237

Date:   16-Nov-2017
BETI:   0.196
VWAP:   7562.03
x:   2,679
a:   0.003299
b:   -0.103199
Rsq:   0.830922
Expected price:   6213.90
Actual price / expected price:   121.70%
BETI ATL price:   669.00
BETI ATH price:   40227.95
Expected date:   14-Jan-2018
# of days ahead:   59.52
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6234.43
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329889623063994++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.103198862334542+%29   

You mean recent BETI high I presume, BETI has certainly been higher than that in the past. If were at an ATH for BETI, price would be $40,000. I think we are going close to that for sure.

[jl2012]

Maybe this is already explained somewhere, but how do you obtain "a" and "b" values?

see the first post

[jl2012]

Date:   18-Nov-2017
BETI:   0.205
VWAP:   7679.33
x:   2,681
a:   0.003299
b:   -0.103519
Rsq:   0.831263
Expected price:   6259.03
Actual price / expected price:   122.69%
BETI ATL price:   673.86
BETI ATH price:   40520.13
Expected date:   18-Jan-2018
# of days ahead:   61.99
Daily VWAP rank:   2
Next expected price:   6279.72
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329925413842277++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.103519213839818+%29   

[jl2012]

Date:   19-Nov-2017
BETI:   0.225
VWAP:   7863.96
x:   2,682
a:   0.003299
b:   -0.103687
Rsq:   0.831433
Expected price:   6281.82
Actual price / expected price:   125.19%
BETI ATL price:   676.31
BETI ATH price:   40667.67
Expected date:   26-Jan-2018
# of days ahead:   68.08
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6302.58
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329944182933188++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.103687305344148+%29   

[jl2012]

Date:   24-Nov-2017
BETI:   0.243
VWAP:   8154.14
x:   2,687
a:   0.003300
b:   -0.104615
Rsq:   0.832290
Expected price:   6398.16
Actual price / expected price:   127.45%
BETI ATL price:   688.84
BETI ATH price:   41420.83
Expected date:   5-Feb-2018
# of days ahead:   73.48
Daily VWAP rank:   2
Next expected price:   6419.31
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.0033004768736274++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.104615298402265+%29   

[vit05]

73 days ahead. This plus the idea that Bitcoin usually crashes once per quarter plus the price of the fees. I do not know if we will see 10k this year.

[TwoCorn]

The last few weeks I've been watching this and wondering if the price was going above a BETI of 0 'with conviction.' What I mean is, it's gone above it before without actually going vertical. It looks like maybe 3 or 4  times historically just by looking at the rough chart and not zooming in too closely. So I've been waiting for it to go above .25, as it looks like very time it has gone above that point, it went vertical in the pattern we are familiar with.

Well, it just went above .25 today assuming it holds, of course.

Will it 'be different this time'? If it isn't different, then the question is, how far above 0 does it go? 1.5 or more starts to become a wild number. And, of course, when it comes down again (and it always does), what is our new floor? Anyone good with the math here care to come up with some average numbers for potential bottoms and floors?

[windjc]

The last few weeks I've been watching this and wondering if the price was going above a BETI of 0 'with conviction.' What I mean is, it's gone above it before without actually going vertical. It looks like maybe 3 or 4  times historically just by looking at the rough chart and not zooming in too closely. So I've been waiting for it to go above .25, as it looks like very time it has gone above that point, it went vertical in the pattern we are familiar with.

Well, it just went above .25 today assuming it holds, of course.

Will it 'be different this time'? If it isn't different, then the question is, how far above 0 does it go? 1.5 or more starts to become a wild number. And, of course, when it comes down again (and it always does), what is our new floor? Anyone good with the math here care to come up with some average numbers for potential bottoms and floors?

Its going to go up slower this time.

[TwoCorn]

The last few weeks I've been watching this and wondering if the price was going above a BETI of 0 'with conviction.' What I mean is, it's gone above it before without actually going vertical. It looks like maybe 3 or 4  times historically just by looking at the rough chart and not zooming in too closely. So I've been waiting for it to go above .25, as it looks like very time it has gone above that point, it went vertical in the pattern we are familiar with.

Well, it just went above .25 today assuming it holds, of course.

Will it 'be different this time'? If it isn't different, then the question is, how far above 0 does it go? 1.5 or more starts to become a wild number. And, of course, when it comes down again (and it always does), what is our new floor? Anyone good with the math here care to come up with some average numbers for potential bottoms and floors?

Its going to go up slower this time.

I've seen your earlier predictions and I don't disagree. I'm trying to come up with a plan for how to play it. I'm a HODLer at heart, so trying to sell my whole stash at the top and buy back lower isn't on my list of things to do. But trying that with some portion of it maybe. So I'd like to find some sell and buyback points.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

The last few weeks I've been watching this and wondering if the price was going above a BETI of 0 'with conviction.' What I mean is, it's gone above it before without actually going vertical. It looks like maybe 3 or 4  times historically just by looking at the rough chart and not zooming in too closely. So I've been waiting for it to go above .25, as it looks like very time it has gone above that point, it went vertical in the pattern we are familiar with.

Well, it just went above .25 today assuming it holds, of course.

Will it 'be different this time'? If it isn't different, then the question is, how far above 0 does it go? 1.5 or more starts to become a wild number. And, of course, when it comes down again (and it always does), what is our new floor? Anyone good with the math here care to come up with some average numbers for potential bottoms and floors?

Its going to go up slower this time.

I've seen your earlier predictions and I don't disagree. I'm trying to come up with a plan for how to play it. I'm a HODLer at heart, so trying to sell my whole stash at the top and buy back lower isn't on my list of things to do. But trying that with some portion of it maybe. So I'd like to find some sell and buyback points.

Scroll back through this thread and you can see a reasonable plan is to scale out and be in cash before BETI reaches 1.5. Use 1.0 if you prefer. Up to you if you want to go to cash or good alts which might hold value during a bear market. There will be a bitcoin bear market sooner or later. Only you can determine how much pain you can handle if you want to continue to hold through a one to two year bear market. Bitcoin price could well drop to $2000. Me? I am going to be in cash and go bargain hunting.

[windjc]

The last few weeks I've been watching this and wondering if the price was going above a BETI of 0 'with conviction.' What I mean is, it's gone above it before without actually going vertical. It looks like maybe 3 or 4  times historically just by looking at the rough chart and not zooming in too closely. So I've been waiting for it to go above .25, as it looks like very time it has gone above that point, it went vertical in the pattern we are familiar with.

Well, it just went above .25 today assuming it holds, of course.

Will it 'be different this time'? If it isn't different, then the question is, how far above 0 does it go? 1.5 or more starts to become a wild number. And, of course, when it comes down again (and it always does), what is our new floor? Anyone good with the math here care to come up with some average numbers for potential bottoms and floors?

Its going to go up slower this time.

I've seen your earlier predictions and I don't disagree. I'm trying to come up with a plan for how to play it. I'm a HODLer at heart, so trying to sell my whole stash at the top and buy back lower isn't on my list of things to do. But trying that with some portion of it maybe. So I'd like to find some sell and buyback points.

I think you will have plenty of time to sell. The local top is hard to predict at the moment, but I will be looking at $15-25k, than a 50% retracement, then $90-100k+ target. The retracement might bring us back to 0 BETI or below.

[spiderbrain]

The order book is pretty thin above $10k. Everyone expects it to bounce off $10k, which suggests the honey badger will do the opposite. This would also match a spike to a BETI between 0.5 and 1 within a few weeks. We might be in for quite a show.

[ssmc2]

What price point is BETI 1 currently?

[Biodom]

I think you will have plenty of time to sell. The local top is hard to predict at the moment, but I will be looking at $15-25k, than a 50% retracement, then $90-100k+ target. The retracement might bring us back to 0 BETI or below.

These numbers are almost exactly the same as masterluc's (fits both the first top, the bottom and the second peak).
There must be something in the air

I am almost ready for BETI 1.5+/- 0.3 peak for a bit of trading, which I rarely do these days.

What price point is BETI 1 currently?

easy to calculate, if I have the right assumption.
BETI=0 is $6419 (on Nov 26)
therefore, BETI 1.0=e^1X6419=$17,449