BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[600watt]

this is interesting... so just using an exponential trend, basically?

yes, but the regression is done everyday only using the data available at that day

We had a big jump in BETI yesterday. It's now over -0.2. As of writing the price is $4080. I think it's very possible to see 0 BETI

BETI for some psychological resistance:

5000    0.085905352
7500    0.49137046
10000    0.779052532
15000     1.18451764
20000     1.472199713
25000     1.695343264

hm... starting to sell smaller percentages of stash @ $10k seems appropriate. wow.

[1714490295]

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[Biodom]

this is interesting... so just using an exponential trend, basically?

yes, but the regression is done everyday only using the data available at that day

We had a big jump in BETI yesterday. It's now over -0.2. As of writing the price is $4080. I think it's very possible to see 0 BETI

BETI for some psychological resistance:

5000    0.085905352
7500    0.49137046
10000    0.779052532
15000     1.18451764
20000     1.472199713
25000     1.695343264

hm... starting to sell smaller percentages of stash @ $10k seems appropriate. wow.

nah, if it goes supra-exponential, 1.5 (at least) is likely, hence around 20K to start, but it could all happen within a day or two (at the final stage, of course).

[jl2012]

Date:    13-Aug-2017
BETI:   -0.139
VWAP:    4007.10
x:    2584
a:    0.00331
b:    -0.10991
Rsq:    0.81600
The day's expected price:    4602.62
Actual price / expected price:   87.06%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   495.53
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   29796.70
Predicted date for today's price:    2-Jul-2017
Days ahead:    -41.90
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330661504558963++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.109913346992637+%29

[windjc]

Date:    13-Aug-2017
BETI:   -0.139
VWAP:    4007.10
x:    2584
a:    0.00331
b:    -0.10991
Rsq:    0.81600
The day's expected price:    4602.62
Actual price / expected price:   87.06%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   495.53
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   29796.70
Predicted date for today's price:    2-Jul-2017
Days ahead:    -41.90
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330661504558963++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.109913346992637+%29

Do you have a historical chart of BETI? I'd love to see trend line resistances.

[jl2012]

Do you have a historical chart of BETI? I'd love to see trend line resistances.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg20800637#msg20800637

[windjc]

Do you have a historical chart of BETI? I'd love to see trend line resistances.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg20800637#msg20800637

Ah thanks missed that. Resistances at 0, .25, 1 and 1.5 it seems.

[Biodom]

Do you have a historical chart of BETI? I'd love to see trend line resistances.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg20800637#msg20800637

Ah thanks missed that. Resistances at 0, .25, 1 and 1.5 it seems.

when I look at it, the real resistance is in the 1.5-1.8 band, that's all.
0 to -0.25 was just a support after 1.5. Something that was happening in 2009 is not really relevant.

[windjc]

Do you have a historical chart of BETI? I'd love to see trend line resistances.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg20800637#msg20800637

Ah thanks missed that. Resistances at 0, .25, 1 and 1.5 it seems.

when I look at it, the real resistance is in the 1.5-1.8 band, that's all.
0 to -0.25 was just a support after 1.5. Something that was happening in 2009 is not really relevant.

Support typically becomes resistance and vice versa.

[jl2012]

Date:    18-Aug-2017
BETI:   -0.112
VWAP:    4180.17
x:    2589
a:    0.00331
b:    -0.10953
Rsq:    0.81683
The day's expected price:    4675.72
Actual price / expected price:   89.40%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   503.40
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   30269.97
Predicted date for today's price:    15-Jul-2017
Days ahead:    -33.89
Daily price rank:    4
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330616596438299++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.109525431084708+%29   

[jl2012]

[Wekkel]

Thanks for the update.

[jl2012]

Date:    23-Aug-2017
BETI:   -0.135
VWAP:    4146.85
x:    2594
a:    0.00331
b:    -0.10891
Rsq:    0.81762
The day's expected price:    4747.82
Actual price / expected price:   87.34%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   511.16
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   30736.75
Predicted date for today's price:    13-Jul-2017
Days ahead:    -40.94
Daily price rank:    5
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330545559798778++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.108910620217511+%29   

[jl2012]

Date:    28-Aug-2017
BETI:   -0.117
VWAP:    4290.85
x:    2599
a:    0.00330
b:    -0.10849
Rsq:    0.81843
The day's expected price:    4822.87
Actual price / expected price:   88.97%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   519.24
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   31222.58
Predicted date for today's price:    23-Jul-2017
Days ahead:    -35.37
Daily price rank:    5
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330496783749949++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.108487662001454+%29   

[jl2012]

Date:    29-Aug-2017
BETI:   -0.072
VWAP:    4502.76
x:    2600
a:    0.00330
b:    -0.10843
Rsq:    0.81860
The day's expected price:    4838.30
Actual price / expected price:   93.06%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   520.90
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   31322.47
Predicted date for today's price:    7-Aug-2017
Days ahead:    -21.75
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330490394140363++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.108432190325694+%29   

[jl2012]

BETI is approaching 0



btw, I've changed my donation address to a segwit one: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3

[vit05]

Actual price / expected price:   93.06%

If the price passes the prediction in this week, would you call it a bubble until the price come back to zero?

[jl2012]

It seems 0 BETI has never been a resistance during an uptrend. Once it breaks through 0, the real ATH would be reached within 1 month. This might be an important indicator if you want to sell the top.

This is the price for different BETI level based on latest data:

0.00   4838.30
0.25   6212.50
0.50   7977.00
0.75   10242.67
1.00   13151.85
1.25   16887.32
1.50   21683.74
1.75   27842.48
2.00   35750.45

[jl2012]

Actual price / expected price:   93.06%

If the price passes the prediction in this week, would you call it a bubble until the price come back to zero?

I believe so. Historically, no post-0 bubble survived longer than ~5 weeks

EDIT: I'd say it's the START of the bubble

[windjc]

Actual price / expected price:   93.06%

If the price passes the prediction in this week, would you call it a bubble until the price come back to zero?

I believe so. Historically, no post-0 bubble survived longer than ~5 weeks

EDIT: I'd say it's the START of the bubble

The market is no longer as volatile as it was before. Time frames have widened, the monthly chart is more like the weekly chart of the past. For this reason I would expect a smoother curve once we pass 0 than we have experienced before.

[Wekkel]

EDIT: I'd say it's the START of the bubble

Exactly. The high price of $30,000+ aligns to the 'moon shot' theory of MasterLuc and fits the theory of J-curves in cryptocurrencies: https://medium.com/@cburniske/the-crypto-j-curve-be5fdddafa26

Good change that current utility value of cryptocurrencies and speculation value are converging again right now for a big J-Curve upwards towards the 1.87 BETI high.