BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[jl2012]

[1714495969]

1714495969

[1714495969]

1714495969

[1714495969]

1714495969

[jl2012]

BETI closes at -1.118 for 2016. We (again) see some resistance around -1.1

BETI for some major levels:

$1000: -1.072
$1126 (ATH): -0.954

Tips are highly appreciated if you like this analysis: 1CiZPrEJdN4FJcqdLdgVLzT8tgCXxT5ion

[600watt]

awesome thread. thank you jl2012 for providing this. it helped me in the darkest moments.

[jl2012]

awesome thread. thank you jl2012 for providing this. it helped me in the darkest moments.

This is a victory for all 3-year hodlers.

Update: BETI is above -1.1 for 2 consecutive days. It's at 27-month high

Date:    2-Jan-2017
BETI:   -1.063
VWAP:    1013.00
x:    2361
a:    0.00349
b:    -0.26161
Rsq:    0.79891
The day's expected price:    2932.18
Actual price / expected price:   34.55%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   315.68
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   18982.52
BETI for ATH ($1126):   -0.957
Predicted date for today's price:    3-Mar-2016
Days ahead:    -304.34
Daily price rank:    5
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00349221249089816++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.261613124881628+%29   

[jl2012]

Thanks for the donor sending me 50mBTC. That's a lot! (This is even more than someone sent me 1BTC in 2012, in USD terms)

We are in the mid-way from $1000 to ATH. In terms of BETI, there is no obvious resistance for the road ahead

Date:    3-Jan-2017
BETI:   -1.057
VWAP:    1020.56
x:    2362
a:    0.00349
b:    -0.26072
Rsq:    0.79896
The day's expected price:    2937.17
Actual price / expected price:   34.75%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   316.22
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   19014.83
BETI for ATH ($1126)   -0.959
Predicted date for today's price:    6-Mar-2016
Days ahead:    -302.80
Daily price rank:    5
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00349107412254917++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.26071548848195+%29   

[jl2012]

Update: above -1

Date:    4-Jan-2017
BETI:   -0.994
VWAP:    1088.45
x:    2363
a:    0.00349
b:    -0.25987
Rsq:    0.79902
The day's expected price:    2942.48
Actual price / expected price:   36.99%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   316.79
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   19049.22
BETI for ATH ($1126)   -0.961
Predicted date for today's price:    25-Mar-2016
Days ahead:    -284.96
Daily price rank:    3
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00349000407190921++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.259871364442829+%29   

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Thanks for this!

[jl2012]

Date:    21-Jan-2017
BETI:   -1.191
VWAP:    916.08
x:    2380
a:    0.00347
b:    -0.24219
Rsq:    0.79918
The day's expected price:    3013.59
Actual price / expected price:   30.40%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   324.45
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   19509.56
BETI for ATH ($1126)   -0.984
Predicted date for today's price:    12-Feb-2016
Days ahead:    -343.39
Daily price rank:    22
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00346768088970605++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.242193709561248+%29   

[jl2012]

[jl2012]

Date:    21-Feb-2017
BETI:   -1.051
VWAP:    1104.60
x:    2411
a:    0.00343
b:    -0.21259
Rsq:    0.80005
The day's expected price:    3161.30
Actual price / expected price:   34.94%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   340.35
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   20465.80
BETI for ATH ($1126)   -1.032
Predicted date for today's price:    20-Apr-2016
Days ahead:    -306.50
Daily price rank:    3
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00343066053259443++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.212585331010719+%29   

[600watt]

where are we on the grand scale? would you mind posting the bigger chart? thank you. this thread will help me to get the timing right next run-up.

[jl2012]

Date:    22-Feb-2017
BETI:   -1.034
VWAP:    1126.24
x:    2412
a:    0.00343
b:    -0.21173
Rsq:    0.80009
The day's expected price:    3166.72
Actual price / expected price:   35.56%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   340.94
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   20500.93
BETI for ATH ($1126)   -1.034
Predicted date for today's price:    26-Apr-2016
Days ahead:    -301.44
Daily price rank:    2
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00342959283908775++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.211725558164464+%29   

[jl2012]

[Biodom]

^^^Well, based on comparison with 2011-2013 we are coming up shallower, but had a couple of sharp bumpletts already.
Most likely scenarios:
1. we are about to undergo a "phase transition" and go for a sharp local super-exponential peak OR
2. wiggle down to -1.2-1.25 before doing #1

Both scenarios would favor long positions, but wiggle down to $800-900 might be possible on ETF rejection, for example, which would be hopefully dismissed by the market.
jl2012 provides numbers for the all-time high, but I am curious, what would 1 or 1.5 peak look like in current numbers (1.87 might be too extreme).

[jl2012]

^^^Well, based on comparison with 2011-2013 we are coming up shallower, but had a couple of sharp bumpletts already.
Most likely scenarios:
1. we are about to undergo a "phase transition" and go for a sharp local super-exponential peak OR
2. wiggle down to -1.2-1.25 before doing #1

Both scenarios would favor long positions, but wiggle down to $800-900 might be possible on ETF rejection, for example, which would be hopefully dismissed by the market.
jl2012 provides numbers for the all-time high, but I am curious, what would 1 or 1.5 peak look like in current numbers (1.87 might be too extreme).

the formula for BETI = x is: 3166.72 * e ^ x. For x = 1, it's $8608

[jl2012]

Date:    1-Mar-2017
BETI:   -0.974
VWAP:    1210.05
x:    2419
a:    0.00342
b:    -0.20593
Rsq:    0.80049
The day's expected price:    3206.33
Actual price / expected price:   37.74%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   345.20
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   20757.37
Predicted date for today's price:    20-May-2016
Days ahead:    -284.73
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   

[Biodom]

^^^Well, based on comparison with 2011-2013 we are coming up shallower, but had a couple of sharp bumpletts already.
Most likely scenarios:
1. we are about to undergo a "phase transition" and go for a sharp local super-exponential peak OR
2. wiggle down to -1.2-1.25 before doing #1

Both scenarios would favor long positions, but wiggle down to $800-900 might be possible on ETF rejection, for example, which would be hopefully dismissed by the market.
jl2012 provides numbers for the all-time high, but I am curious, what would 1 or 1.5 peak look like in current numbers (1.87 might be too extreme).

the formula for BETI = x is: 3166.72 * e ^ x. For x = 1, it's $8608

making $8608-14912 a possible supra-exponential peak.
If it happens, I might sell 10-30% there, most likely.

[jl2012]

Date:    3-May-2017
BETI:   -0.879
VWAP:    1478.69
x:    2482
a:    0.00336
b:    -0.15139
Rsq:    0.80322
The day's expected price:    3560.19
Actual price / expected price:   41.53%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   383.30
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23048.15
Predicted date for today's price:    14-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -261.84
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335574316638638++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.151386678591431+%29   

[jl2012]

[jl2012]

BETI has been making higher highs and higher lows since the bottom around Sept 2015. Yesterday it was -0.879. It is a resistance and support level historically, so I expect we will see some resistance here. As long as it does not go below $1000, it's still making a higher low and the upward trend is still intact.