BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[d57heinz]

Reviving this "dead'' thread again...

BETI is at a very low nuber of -2.885 (and people think that we are not are still in the bear market, lol).
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986

At BETI=0, which is the fair value, we should be at $163304, which, incidentally, is the vicinity of S2F and S2FX

At which point should we declare that BETI is completely dead and buried?
Posting this just for kicks as I am bored senseless by the recent price action or a luck of such.

If the “cash/coin shortage” america is experiencing doesn’t fuel bitcoin what will.  As each and every narrative falls like dominos. When will reality for most set in?  This is dead in the water.  No one likes to throw salt in wounds so they just quietly sneak back into the bushes.  Such as the Homer Simpson meme


BR
Doug

[exstasie]

Reviving this "dead'' thread again...

BETI is at a very low nuber of -2.885 (and people think that we are not are still in the bear market, lol).

Yep, my thoughts exactly ever since the March crash. We're still stuck in the post-2017 bear market range. Nothing but lower highs.

At the same time, breakouts upwards of $10.5K and $14K could bring very fast exponential upside. So there's that to consider too.

At which point should we declare that BETI is completely dead and buried?

Hard to say since it's just based on a regression model. Another bubble cycle will of course revive it. I've been saying for years that BTC's price cycles are slowing down, and I don't think the model properly accounts for it.

[dragonvslinux]

At which point should we declare that BETI is completely dead and buried?

Hard to say since it's just based on a regression model. Another bubble cycle will of course revive it. I've been saying for years that BTC's price cycles are slowing down, and I don't think the model properly accounts for it.

True that this indicator doesn't account for regression, which it's probably supposed to, but to me it's still pretty useful. Based on Bitcoin's regression model, you should be able to see lower highs and higher lows. I can see this clearly, and therefore wouldn't declare BETI dead and buried. The chart below is 17 months out of date though.

chart update, if anyone is interested...

can someone provide an updated chart?

I found BETI on tradingview, but looks broken 

And to make it worse, i have also added a BETI indicator to Tradingview.

Code:

//based on
//https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00331836433279664++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.120774828196607+)
//https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.680

study(title='BTC BETI', overlay=false)

a = 0.00331836433279664
b = -0.120774828196607
timevar = (time-1279368000000)/(1000*60*60*24)
my_beti(price) => log(price/exp(a*timevar+b))

plot(my_beti(close))

plot(2, color=#111111, transp=50)
plot(1, color=#111111, transp=50)
plot(0, color=#111111, transp=50)
plot(-1, color=#111111, transp=50)
plot(-2, color=#111111, transp=50)

//Epoch timestamp: 1279368000
//Timestamp in milliseconds: 1279368000000
//Human time (GMT): Saturday, July 17, 2010 12:00:00 PM
//Human time (your time zone): Saturday, July 17, 2010 2:00:00 PM GMT+02:00

[d57heinz]

Reviving this "dead'' thread again...

BETI is at a very low nuber of -2.885 (and people think that we are not are still in the bear market, lol).

Yep, my thoughts exactly ever since the March crash. We're still stuck in the post-2017 bear market range. Nothing but lower highs.

At the same time, breakouts upwards of $10.5K and $14K could bring very fast exponential upside. So there's that to consider too.

At which point should we declare that BETI is completely dead and buried?

Hard to say since it's just based on a regression model. Another bubble cycle will of course revive it. I've been saying for years that BTC's price cycles are slowing down, and I don't think the model properly accounts for it.

The slowing down. Isn’t that typical of a Ponzi scheme. The slow down comes as there are no more new people to sucker into the scheme. You know this.  We don’t need graphs and models to state the obvious. 

[dragonvslinux]

Reviving this "dead'' thread again...

BETI is at a very low nuber of -2.885 (and people think that we are not are still in the bear market, lol).

Yep, my thoughts exactly ever since the March crash. We're still stuck in the post-2017 bear market range. Nothing but lower highs.

At the same time, breakouts upwards of $10.5K and $14K could bring very fast exponential upside. So there's that to consider too.

At which point should we declare that BETI is completely dead and buried?

Hard to say since it's just based on a regression model. Another bubble cycle will of course revive it. I've been saying for years that BTC's price cycles are slowing down, and I don't think the model properly accounts for it.

The slowing down. Isn’t that typical of a Ponzi scheme. The slow down comes as there are no more new people to sucker into the scheme. You know this.  We don’t need graphs and models to state the obvious.  

The regression (or slow down as you put it) isn't an exclusive model for Ponzis however, it's also true of the adoption of many industries such as electricity, the motor car as well as the internet. I also don't need graphs or models to prove the obvious here   Nor should I need to explain that these industries remain very value-able as well as profitable.

Sometimes Ponzis exit scam at their peaks, such as Bitconnect, not necessarily once the slow down occurs. The other slight oversight is an exit scam requires a controlling majority of assets to be dumped, in order to effectively collapse the pyramid, due to the centralized nature of the top-down scheme. Whereas with BTC I fail to see the controlling amount that could cause such a reaction. Huobi's 1.39% of supply doesn't quite cut it, even Satoshis upto 5% holding doesn't add up to 50% either (they are about 90% short of that!). Big investors dumping a small percentage would only lead to a large correction (or complete liquidation), not exactly exit scam material, more like a btfd scenario in my mind.

Good to hear some long-term bears are still in town though, always bullish for the price long-term  

[marcus_of_augustus]

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

It doesn't mean Internet == Cancer. Only a moron would say that. A network that provides a valuable service to participants for being connected to it is on the same spectrum as a network that provides only minimal positive benefit (or is exploitative) of it's participants (like fiat monetary systems that are enforced coercively) and on net extract value from the majority of participants.

Pyramid schemes, fiat money, bitcoin and all monetary systems are networks with a basis in a temporally-limited, subjective-value, marketable unit.

[dragonvslinux]

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

No. It's based on logarithmic growth, which is pretty much the opposite of exponential as the rate of growth ("speed") continues to decline.

Logarithmic:



Exponential:



Bitcoin:



End of mathematics class 

[Biodom]

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

No. It's based on logarithmic growth, which is pretty much the opposite of exponential as the rate of growth ("speed") continues to decline.

Logarithmic:



Exponential:



Bitcoin:



End of mathematics class 

Not going to formally pick a side of an argument, but you presented the logarithmic growth with a linear scale on the "y" axis", but compared to bitcoin which you presented with a logarithmic "y" axis scale. Exponential growth looks like linear growth when using log scale: you get a straight line.

[dragonvslinux]

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

No. It's based on logarithmic growth, which is pretty much the opposite of exponential as the rate of growth ("speed") continues to decline.

Logarithmic:



Exponential:



Bitcoin:



End of mathematics class 

Not going to formally pick a side of an argument, but you presented the logarithmic growth with a linear scale on the "y" axis", but compared to bitcoin which you presented with a logarithmic "y" axis scale. Exponential growth looks like linear growth when using log scale: you get a straight line.

Not quite. The axis deceives the eyes as they are not in proportion to put it simply, see referenced label. "When y = 4 then x = 16"

Reference: https://www.rapidtables.com/math/algebra/Logarithm.html

Valid point about the exponential curve being on a linear chart, and yes it would be a straight line on a log chart. Thanks for your input!



As another on-topic log scale example though of an logarithmic adoption curve:

[d57heinz]

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

It doesn't mean Internet == Cancer. Only a moron would say that. A network that provides a valuable service to participants for being connected to it is on the same spectrum as a network that provides only minimal positive benefit (or is exploitative) of it's participants (like fiat monetary systems that are enforced coercively) and on net extract value from the majority of participants.

Pyramid schemes, fiat money, bitcoin and all monetary systems are networks with a basis in a temporally-limited, subjective-value, marketable unit.

Actually I can produce all the examples your little heart desires to prove the internet is cancer.  Cancer of the mind.  Those that think they don’t have to have accountability. Yes the comparison is valid

Ohh and it looks like you guys got a sympathy pump to help you pour more of your money into it. What the chart needed to be a certain way.  So the powers that control bitcoin just pump to fit whatever narrative is rolling that week.  Yes it’s heavily manipulated.  

Actually I’m looking at it.  There is some money to be made.  Either it dumps to oblivion or the coiling I’m seeing at the end of the all time chart looks to be set to explode.  It is what it is.  I’ve found that some people in life are just meant to work and some are just meant to exploit others to do their bidding. I’ve been trained on the former rather than the latter.  I wish you all the best of luck and prosperous further.  No matter how this scam turns out I hope you all can make a buck whilst your in it.  I lost my ass and had to pickup the PCs.  Now only to be fucked by COVID 19 and an ignorant populace.  I thought when you started your own business you were the sole reason it can be fucked up. Well nope.  Plenty of external sources via human fuckery to do that for me.   It is what it is.  What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger.  Take care everyone. This should be the last thread I have followed.

73’s
d57heinz
Doug

[JayJuanGee]

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

It doesn't mean Internet == Cancer. Only a moron would say that. A network that provides a valuable service to participants for being connected to it is on the same spectrum as a network that provides only minimal positive benefit (or is exploitative) of it's participants (like fiat monetary systems that are enforced coercively) and on net extract value from the majority of participants.

Pyramid schemes, fiat money, bitcoin and all monetary systems are networks with a basis in a temporally-limited, subjective-value, marketable unit.

Actually I can produce all the examples your little heart desires to prove the internet is cancer.  Cancer of the mind.  Those that think they don’t have to have accountability. Yes the comparison is valid

Ohh and it looks like you guys got a sympathy pump to help you pour more of your money into it. What the chart needed to be a certain way.  So the powers that control bitcoin just pump to fit whatever narrative is rolling that week.  Yes it’s heavily manipulated.  

Actually I’m looking at it.  There is some money to be made.  Either it dumps to oblivion or the coiling I’m seeing at the end of the all time chart looks to be set to explode.  It is what it is.  I’ve found that some people in life are just meant to work and some are just meant to exploit others to do their bidding. I’ve been trained on the former rather than the latter.  I wish you all the best of luck and prosperous further.  No matter how this scam turns out I hope you all can make a buck whilst your in it.  I lost my ass and had to pickup the PCs.  Now only to be fucked by COVID 19 and an ignorant populace.  I thought when you started your own business you were the sole reason it can be fucked up. Well nope.  Plenty of external sources via human fuckery to do that for me.   It is what it is.  What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger.  Take care everyone. This should be the last thread I have followed.

73’s
d57heinz
Doug

Well, Doug, you don't really seem to understand bitcoin, so you will likely NOT be missed when you go away from these here parts... that is if you do go away.

Your lack of understanding of bitcoin seems to contribute to your convoluting and confusing of ideas, including identifying the difference between value and props.

Surely, if you have been losing value and getting screwed in traditional markets, there may be some way that you could personally figure out a way to hedge some value (even if starting small with DCAing) into bitcoin, without getting all excited about whether bitcoin is a bubble or the other nonsensical attributes that you attribute to the bitcoin phenomenon. 

Otherwise, if you fail and refuse to end up hedging some value in bitcoin, then you will likely just continue to get screwed by and be a loser within traditional financial systems, where the true "fuckery" seems to be ongoingly screwing lots of folks (except the very rich, and even the rich are likely getting screwed too by the ongoing lack of objectivity and ongoing undermining of the very system that had caused them their status quo richie-ness)

[josegines]

Testing with other values, a curious behavior of BETI is verified, which has just broken the bearish guideline, according to these parameters:

a = 0.0022
b = -0.12

[windjc]

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

It doesn't mean Internet == Cancer. Only a moron would say that. A network that provides a valuable service to participants for being connected to it is on the same spectrum as a network that provides only minimal positive benefit (or is exploitative) of it's participants (like fiat monetary systems that are enforced coercively) and on net extract value from the majority of participants.

Pyramid schemes, fiat money, bitcoin and all monetary systems are networks with a basis in a temporally-limited, subjective-value, marketable unit.

Actually I can produce all the examples your little heart desires to prove the internet is cancer.  Cancer of the mind.  Those that think they don’t have to have accountability. Yes the comparison is valid

Ohh and it looks like you guys got a sympathy pump to help you pour more of your money into it. What the chart needed to be a certain way.  So the powers that control bitcoin just pump to fit whatever narrative is rolling that week.  Yes it’s heavily manipulated.  

Actually I’m looking at it.  There is some money to be made.  Either it dumps to oblivion or the coiling I’m seeing at the end of the all time chart looks to be set to explode.  It is what it is.  I’ve found that some people in life are just meant to work and some are just meant to exploit others to do their bidding. I’ve been trained on the former rather than the latter.  I wish you all the best of luck and prosperous further.  No matter how this scam turns out I hope you all can make a buck whilst your in it.  I lost my ass and had to pickup the PCs.  Now only to be fucked by COVID 19 and an ignorant populace.  I thought when you started your own business you were the sole reason it can be fucked up. Well nope.  Plenty of external sources via human fuckery to do that for me.   It is what it is.  What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger.  Take care everyone. This should be the last thread I have followed.

73’s
d57heinz
Doug

You've been around since 2014. Which means you could have bought at $155. Did you?

I'm suspecting the answer is still no, since you are for some reason still on this forum and such a negative Nancy.

[JayJuanGee]

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

It doesn't mean Internet == Cancer. Only a moron would say that. A network that provides a valuable service to participants for being connected to it is on the same spectrum as a network that provides only minimal positive benefit (or is exploitative) of it's participants (like fiat monetary systems that are enforced coercively) and on net extract value from the majority of participants.

Pyramid schemes, fiat money, bitcoin and all monetary systems are networks with a basis in a temporally-limited, subjective-value, marketable unit.

Actually I can produce all the examples your little heart desires to prove the internet is cancer.  Cancer of the mind.  Those that think they don’t have to have accountability. Yes the comparison is valid

Ohh and it looks like you guys got a sympathy pump to help you pour more of your money into it. What the chart needed to be a certain way.  So the powers that control bitcoin just pump to fit whatever narrative is rolling that week.  Yes it’s heavily manipulated.  

Actually I’m looking at it.  There is some money to be made.  Either it dumps to oblivion or the coiling I’m seeing at the end of the all time chart looks to be set to explode.  It is what it is.  I’ve found that some people in life are just meant to work and some are just meant to exploit others to do their bidding. I’ve been trained on the former rather than the latter.  I wish you all the best of luck and prosperous further.  No matter how this scam turns out I hope you all can make a buck whilst your in it.  I lost my ass and had to pickup the PCs.  Now only to be fucked by COVID 19 and an ignorant populace.  I thought when you started your own business you were the sole reason it can be fucked up. Well nope.  Plenty of external sources via human fuckery to do that for me.   It is what it is.  What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger.  Take care everyone. This should be the last thread I have followed.

73’s
d57heinz
Doug

You've been around since 2014. Which means you could have bought at $155. Did you?

I'm suspecting the answer is still no, since you are for some reason still on this forum and such a negative Nancy.

Personally, I do not expect anyone to either be able to time the bottom or to have enough nerve to buy at anything close to an exact bottom.

However, throughout most of 2015, bitcoin's price spent a lot of time between $220 and $280 - probably something close to 10 months, and of course, later in 2015 and even nearly half of 2016, BTC spent a decent amount of time (probably around 6.5 months) between $370 and $440, and finally, a third opportunity to buy BTC was in mid-to-late 2016 BTC, when BTC dropped right before Bitfinex's supposed hack, yet largely spent most of the time between June and October which would be nearly 5 months between $550 to $700 price range.

So, personally, I would have suggested that buying a meaningful amount of BTC within any of those three opportune time-frames (and surely three price range sets) would have been reasonable for anyone, including even employing some kind of DCA strategies that might not break the bank but would have allowed an accumulation of anywhere between 1% and 10% of investable assets for any forum member who had gotten involved in trying to learn about BTC in 2014. 

Sure, may not have "killed it" but even with a $10k investment into bitcoin should have been able to acquire a good 20 BTC or so over those couple of years.. and I remember that some people had goals to achieve 21 BTC in those times, and harder to accomplish such 21BTC these days, and forum members are frequently more than thrilled to have been able to get into double digit BTC wallet accumulation sizes... soon (and maybe there are even many forum members today) forum members will be excited to be in the 1+ bitcoin club.. because it currently can take a decent amount of efforts and focus too achieve a wallet size of 1 BTC plus.

[jubalix]

.. and I remember that some people had goals to achieve 21 BTC in those times, and harder to accomplish such 21BTC these days, and forum members are frequently more than thrilled to have been able to get into double digit BTC wallet accumulation sizes... soon (and maybe there are even many forum members today) forum members will be excited to be in the 1+ bitcoin club.. because it currently can take a decent amount of efforts and focus too achieve a wallet size of 1 BTC plus.

yeah i remember that....21 btc...

200K + now !!!!

[JayJuanGee]

.. and I remember that some people had goals to achieve 21 BTC in those times, and harder to accomplish such 21BTC these days, and forum members are frequently more than thrilled to have been able to get into double digit BTC wallet accumulation sizes... soon (and maybe there are even many forum members today) forum members will be excited to be in the 1+ bitcoin club.. because it currently can take a decent amount of efforts and focus too achieve a wallet size of 1 BTC plus.

yeah i remember that....21 btc...

200K + now !!!!

Yep.  Whoaza!!!!

[marcus_of_augustus]

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

No. It's based on logarithmic growth, which is pretty much the opposite of exponential as the rate of growth ("speed") continues to decline.

Logarithmic:



Exponential:



Bitcoin:



End of mathematics class  

I'm not paying tuition for this one ... in which universe did internet adoption look like a logarithmic curve??

And you don't mean "opposite" but the mathematical term is the "inverse function" (I mean I don't know exactly what you are trying to say here but exponential function and natural logarithm functions are inverses).

Not sure what log base 2 has to do with anything I was talking about. But carry on ...

hint: bitcoin price should not be taken as a proxy for network growth.

[bullioner]

any chance of an up-to-date BETI graph?

[josegines]

any chance of an up-to-date BETI graph?

are available on Tradingview
developed by mararn1618

I'm not sure if parameters a and b were the last ones proposed by the author.

BETI
https://www.tradingview.com/script/DWmkcjKC-BTC-BETI-Bitcoin-Exponential-Trend-Index/


APROXIMATION
https://es.tradingview.com/script/fmjHtj4q-BTC-Approximation-BETI-Bitcoin-Exponential-Trend/

[bullioner]

I'm not sure if parameters a and b were the last ones proposed by the author.

They are determined on-the-fly by a regression fit, no?  Otherwise it's not BETI as defined by this thread.