BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[jl2012]

https://i.imgur.com/NSooYC5.png

It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011.

Interesting. Do you dynamically adjust the formula? When I link to the latest, trend prediction is $1439, but when I connect to several days earlier link, then it is $1654.
In any case it is around -1.50, but I am curious why two different links result in a variable outcome (1439 vs 1654).

The formula is updated with all the available data at the time. Since the real price is lower then the expected price, the growth in expected price is slowing down so you see the difference. But the expected price is still growing by about $3/day

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[Wary]

It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011.

Thanks for the update.
It looks so similar to last time, when it was double bottom.

[Biodom]

It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011.

Thanks for the update.
It looks so similar to last time, when it was double bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/n2tEMYf.png

It does. If we bounce with the same long term ferocity as in 2011, BTC might reach $13,000 in 12 mo by just matching the trend.
A bubble could make it 50K (~1.34 on the graph in 12mo) or 60K (~1.5 on the graph in 12mo), but I don't expect a bubble in 2015, maybe in 2016.
If we will go just to -0.75 of a trend in 12 mo (matching 2012), then it will be at $6200 in Nov 2015 with a possible bubble in 2016.
In other words, IF you believe that we finally bouncing in a long term trend, then this IS the time to make money.
The alternative scenario is that:
a. we are OFF the trend permanently or
b. we will reach a despair hour at -2.25 of the trend.

[Wary]

It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011.

Thanks for the update.
It looks so similar to last time, when it was double bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/n2tEMYf.png

It does. If we bounce with the same long term ferocity as in 2011, BTC might reach $13,000 in 12 mo by just matching the trend.
A bubble could make it 50K (~1.34 on the graph in 12mo) or 60K (~1.5 on the graph in 12mo), but I don't expect a bubble in 2015, maybe in 2016.
If we will go just to -0.75 of a trend in 12 mo (matching 2012), then it will be at $6200 in Nov 2015 with a possible bubble in 2016.
In other words, IF you believe that we finally bouncing in a long term trend, then this IS the time to make money.
The alternative scenario is that:
a. we are OFF the trend permanently or
b. we will reach a despair hour at -2.25 of the trend.

Agreed. And I think the ferocity (=amplitude of swings) will decrease over time. Bitcoin matures, less uncertainty, wild guesses getting replaced with educated guesses...

[Biodom]

It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011.

Thanks for the update.
It looks so similar to last time, when it was double bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/n2tEMYf.png

It does. If we bounce with the same long term ferocity as in 2011, BTC might reach $13,000 in 12 mo by just matching the trend.
A bubble could make it 50K (~1.34 on the graph in 12mo) or 60K (~1.5 on the graph in 12mo), but I don't expect a bubble in 2015, maybe in 2016.
If we will go just to -0.75 of a trend in 12 mo (matching 2012), then it will be at $6200 in Nov 2015 with a possible bubble in 2016.
In other words, IF you believe that we finally bouncing in a long term trend, then this IS the time to make money.
The alternative scenario is that:
a. we are OFF the trend permanently or
b. we will reach a despair hour at -2.25 of the trend.

Agreed. And I think the ferocity (=amplitude of swings) will decrease over time. Bitcoin matures, less uncertainty, wild guesses getting replaced with educated guesses...

jumped to -1.26

[jl2012]

It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011.

Thanks for the update.
It looks so similar to last time, when it was double bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/n2tEMYf.png

It does. If we bounce with the same long term ferocity as in 2011, BTC might reach $13,000 in 12 mo by just matching the trend.
A bubble could make it 50K (~1.34 on the graph in 12mo) or 60K (~1.5 on the graph in 12mo), but I don't expect a bubble in 2015, maybe in 2016.
If we will go just to -0.75 of a trend in 12 mo (matching 2012), then it will be at $6200 in Nov 2015 with a possible bubble in 2016.
In other words, IF you believe that we finally bouncing in a long term trend, then this IS the time to make money.
The alternative scenario is that:
a. we are OFF the trend permanently or
b. we will reach a despair hour at -2.25 of the trend.

Agreed. And I think the ferocity (=amplitude of swings) will decrease over time. Bitcoin matures, less uncertainty, wild guesses getting replaced with educated guesses...

jumped to -1.26

If it could go above -1.2, the maximum value made on 14 Oct, the double bottom at -1.47 may be confirmed. There were only 2 double bottom of this kind in the history: the first one in Oct-Nov 2011, the second one in Jun to Oct 2013. Both were preceded by a rally.

To break -1.2, the daily VWAP has to be at least $441.

[jl2012]

It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011.

Thanks for the update.
It looks so similar to last time, when it was double bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/n2tEMYf.png

It does. If we bounce with the same long term ferocity as in 2011, BTC might reach $13,000 in 12 mo by just matching the trend.
A bubble could make it 50K (~1.34 on the graph in 12mo) or 60K (~1.5 on the graph in 12mo), but I don't expect a bubble in 2015, maybe in 2016.
If we will go just to -0.75 of a trend in 12 mo (matching 2012), then it will be at $6200 in Nov 2015 with a possible bubble in 2016.
In other words, IF you believe that we finally bouncing in a long term trend, then this IS the time to make money.
The alternative scenario is that:
a. we are OFF the trend permanently or
b. we will reach a despair hour at -2.25 of the trend.

I have done some simulation. If it takes 12 to reach -0.75, that would be around 0.45% growth per day. The price will be $1930 at the end of Nov 2015, when it reaches -0.75. It is not $6200 because the prolonged deviation from the trend will pull the expected price down.

[Driv3n]

Using the last update we are now at -1.6, a new low for the current downtrend. I have a feeling we'll continue going down before we go up.

[jl2012]

Using the last update we are now at -1.6, a new low for the current downtrend. I have a feeling we'll continue going down before we go up.

it's -1.48

Date:    13-Dec-2014
VWAP:    350.19
x:    1610
a:    0.00553
b:    -1.56290
Rsq:    0.89740
The day's expected price:    1538.21
Actual price / expected price:   22.77%
Predicted date for today's price:    20-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -267.67
Daily price rank:    379
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    23-Oct-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00552873933659337++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.56289823864621+%29   

[jl2012]

Will it form a triple bottom at around -1.5, or going to make a new low? It never goes below -1.5 in the past 3 years

[fewcoins]

It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011.

Thanks for the update.
It looks so similar to last time, when it was double bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/n2tEMYf.png

It does. If we bounce with the same long term ferocity as in 2011, BTC might reach $13,000 in 12 mo by just matching the trend.
A bubble could make it 50K (~1.34 on the graph in 12mo) or 60K (~1.5 on the graph in 12mo), but I don't expect a bubble in 2015, maybe in 2016.
If we will go just to -0.75 of a trend in 12 mo (matching 2012), then it will be at $6200 in Nov 2015 with a possible bubble in 2016.
In other words, IF you believe that we finally bouncing in a long term trend, then this IS the time to make money.
The alternative scenario is that:
a. we are OFF the trend permanently or
b. we will reach a despair hour at -2.25 of the trend.

I have done some simulation. If it takes 12 to reach -0.75, that would be around 0.45% growth per day. The price will be $1930 at the end of Nov 2015, when it reaches -0.75. It is not $6200 because the prolonged deviation from the trend will pull the expected price down.

LMFAO!!! If only you fools could calculate losses this well, you wouldn't have lost all that money you're about to lose

[inca]

LMFAO!!! If only you fools could calculate losses this well, you wouldn't have lost all that money you're about to lose

Finally, welcome to ignore.

[painlord2k]

Will it form a triple bottom at around -1.5, or going to make a new low? It never goes below -1.5 in the past 3 years

I would say it will go to a new low (but not a lot lower), probably the exchange rate will stay around here (300-200) for a little longer (march 2015), then slowly will start to raise.
There are external factors slowing down the increase of the exchange rate independent from Bitcoin adoption and Bitcoin inflation rate (new coins mined).
In particular, the MB creation by the Federal Reserve is near zero and the M1 is a good 3-5% lower than Bitcoin inflation.
If we take in account the zombie-coin (Bitcoin not moved by one year or more) the inflation rate is a lot higher.

Until the new adopters convert in Bitcoin more than $ 1.3M/day in goods and services (net of all imports in and exports from Bitcoin), the exchange rate will not recover. 1.3M/day is just to keep up with the current exchange rate.
New adoptions from merchants and users could increase the demand to hold a few times (now there are a lot of way to spend Bitcoin, so many could also be paid in Bitcoin (at least partially).
Every merchant is also an adopter and could pay its suppliers (of goods and services) or employees in Bitcoin or be paid in Bitcoin by another merchant accepting Bitcoin (E.G. Dell could pay Microsoft with Bitcon for the Windows licences included in Dell's Computers, so could have an interest to pay keep a balance in Bitcoin to do so - Overstock sell Dell Computers and could be paid in BTC and pay Dell with BTC).
Microsoft could pay some employees in Bitcoin and these employees could buy something from Dell or Overstock.
More BTCs start circling and never need to be exchanged in $, less will be available at the exchanges. Less will be sold at the exchanges, less $ (in fiat or goods and services) need to be converted to keep up the same exchange rate and the exchange rate start to raise.

The effects of adoption of BTC by Microsoft will be see in the future. If Microsoft aggressively deploy the payment system for all international services and goods, and it have the same trend of Overstock.com, we will see a 0.05% revenues initially ($4M/month) growing to 0.1% (in the first quarter) and 0.25% (in the second quarter) and around 0.5% in one year (this is a not trivial 240 M/year). 1% of the MS revenues are what is needed, alone to keep the exchange rate at 500$. If Microsoft start paying employees and suppliers with the bitcoins it receive this will bust up the price a lot. If this do not happen, the price will not be pushed up much.


Until the next halving, long speculators will speculate adoption (the utility to adopt Bitcoin) will trump inflation and short will speculate inflation will trump adoption.
After the next halving, when inflation rate go at <5% per year level, Bitcoin will become interesting as a way to save, because inflation will be way lower than in $, £, €, yen, yuan and whatever.
Then things will become interesting to observe. We will see a lot of currencies die. Very fast, very painfully.

[adpinbr]

I am a long term bull, and I tend to agree with the trend line premise. However, I have a problem with this analysis. When does it change? I mean you could extrapolate this to mean Bitcoin will be worth 100MM dollars on a long enough timeline. I think we all agree that Bitcoin will not be 100MM a piece, so the question is, at what point is the trendline no longer relevant? When do we need to remodel the trendline?

[jaredboice]

LMFAO!!! If only you fools could calculate losses this well, you wouldn't have lost all that money you're about to lose

Finally, welcome to ignore.

Took you long enough lol

[Wary]

I am a long term bull, and I tend to agree with the trend line premise. However, I have a problem with this analysis. When does it change? I mean you could extrapolate this to mean Bitcoin will be worth 100MM dollars on a long enough timeline. I think we all agree that Bitcoin will not be 100MM a piece, so the question is, at what point is the trendline no longer relevant? When do we need to remodel the trendline?

The difference between exponent and S-curve becomes noticeable only after it reaches about 1/2 of maximum (until then all differences can be explained away as volatility). At the  current line (10x a year) 1/2 is less than 4 month. So if the eventual bitcoin price is 1M, we will notice the signs of saturation only 3-4 months before the trendline will cross 1M mark.

If 3-4 months is too short a notice, we should look for an input outside of price data. We have to figure out what will be replaced by bitcoin and what is the current cap of this would-be-replaced thing. Gold? Internet money? Black market? Gray-market? African money? Thirld-world money? US Dollar? MB? M1? M2? Bonds? CDs? Hedge funds? Pension funds? There were a number of threads with such discussions a year ago. Nowadays, with one-year-long bear market, such topics aren't so popular. Instead people are discussing how low will bitcoin go.  

EDIT: added some articles ("a"s and "the"s)

[exocytosis]

When do we need to remodel the trendline?

One year ago.

[Joe200]

The problem with this is the implicit assumption that the price trend must come back to the trendline. It doesn't. The price has deviates from the trendlines of the early days and has not (and probably will never) come back to them.

For a better, but still very simplistic approach, see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=600802.0

[Tzupy]

When do we need to remodel the trendline?

One year ago.

IMO longer than 1 year. Markus started faking the price since February 2013, quoting from the Willy report:
"In other words, Markus is somehow buying tons of BTC without spending a dime."

[Biodom]

When do we need to remodel the trendline?

One year ago.

IMO longer than 1 year. Markus started faking the price since February 2013, quoting from the Willy report:
"In other words, Markus is somehow buying tons of BTC without spending a dime."

the presence of a bot does NOT mean that the whole trend is invalidated, although people make this assumption often.
case in point-Dow was less than 7K before all QE started. So, what is the correct value for Dow? 6K, 10K, 17K? Unknowable.