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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 107193 times)
btc4lifer
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December 12, 2017, 12:20:31 AM
 #641

Maybe it is a stupid question... But shouldn't BETI take into account the increasing market CAP?
I mean, volatility should decrease with the increase of MC (so even a bubble over 1.5 might become sustainable given enough cap)

What if this is the strongest move bitcoin has ever had? Should the volatility be less then?
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December 12, 2017, 12:47:13 AM
Last edit: December 12, 2017, 01:02:33 AM by ragnar0k
 #642

Maybe it is a stupid question... But shouldn't BETI take into account the increasing market CAP?
I mean, volatility should decrease with the increase of MC (so even a bubble over 1.5 might become sustainable given enough cap)

What if this is the strongest move bitcoin has ever had? Should the volatility be less then?

Yes. I am wondering if it can be really applied now given that the basis since when BETI was made, audience and infrastructure were different. The pool of buyers was so limited it is not even comparable
Ideally, you would want to consider the amount of users coming in
EDIT to make my point more clear: let's assume in 2013 Satoshi decided to pay for a Super Bowl ad and a football world cup ad. 40 Million people joined MtGox buying at least 400$ worth of bitcoins each, rising the value to 4000$ (just throwing numbers here, sorry). Wouldn't BETI still consider it a bubble although fundamentals are correct?

Also, I don't get why in August/September 2013 (according to charts in p. 32) we had 0 or less BETI when we were clearly ahead (BETI expected ~30$ vs an actual of ~100$)
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December 12, 2017, 01:57:33 AM
 #643


jl2012 could you do a quote like this for what 0.5 - 2.5 would be around August 9th 2018? I'm curious how it lines up if this fractal plays out from mid 2012 - 2014:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

not jl, but looking at the graphs it is clear that anything between 0 and 2 is a very short living spike as it is supra-exponential.
In all likelihood by the summer of 2018 the graph would be below zero (or fluctuating around it).

I see your point. However, the spring - winter 2013 double spike could potentially play out again. If we spike now, drop back down to 0, and back up again the timeframe would be pretty close.
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December 12, 2017, 02:02:04 AM
 #644


Yes. I am wondering if it can be really applied now given that the basis since when BETI was made, audience and infrastructure were different. The pool of buyers was so limited it is not even comparable
Ideally, you would want to consider the amount of users coming in
EDIT to make my point more clear: let's assume in 2013 Satoshi decided to pay for a Super Bowl ad and a football world cup ad. 40 Million people joined MtGox buying at least 400$ worth of bitcoins each, rising the value to 4000$ (just throwing numbers here, sorry). Wouldn't BETI still consider it a bubble although fundamentals are correct?

Also, I don't get why in August/September 2013 (according to charts in p. 32) we had 0 or less BETI when we were clearly ahead (BETI expected ~30$ vs an actual of ~100$)

Sorry, but "[different]audience and infrastructure" is something uncomputable in drawing charts.
This thread is about a chart based on price and possible predictions thereof.

"Ideally, you would want to consider the amount of users coming in"
Please do (in a separate thread).
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December 12, 2017, 02:23:48 AM
 #645


Yes. I am wondering if it can be really applied now given that the basis since when BETI was made, audience and infrastructure were different. The pool of buyers was so limited it is not even comparable
Ideally, you would want to consider the amount of users coming in
EDIT to make my point more clear: let's assume in 2013 Satoshi decided to pay for a Super Bowl ad and a football world cup ad. 40 Million people joined MtGox buying at least 400$ worth of bitcoins each, rising the value to 4000$ (just throwing numbers here, sorry). Wouldn't BETI still consider it a bubble although fundamentals are correct?

Also, I don't get why in August/September 2013 (according to charts in p. 32) we had 0 or less BETI when we were clearly ahead (BETI expected ~30$ vs an actual of ~100$)

Sorry, but "[different]audience and infrastructure" is something uncomputable in drawing charts.
This thread is about a chart based on price and possible predictions thereof.

"Ideally, you would want to consider the amount of users coming in"
Please do (in a separate thread).

Just wanted to know if my concerns were correct (so I can account for a chance of BETI failing). Seems like chances are there, though I guess this can somehow be considered part of the log growth
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December 12, 2017, 03:39:13 AM
 #646

Date:   10-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.734
VWAP:   14233.61

   
0.5   11263.50
1.0   18570.36
1.5   30617.35
2.0   50479.48
2.5   83226.60

jl2012 could you do a quote like this for what 0.5 - 2.5 would be around August 9th 2018? I'm curious how it lines up if this fractal plays out from mid 2012 - 2014:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

It is not possible because the regression parameters change as the price changes

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December 12, 2017, 03:40:01 AM
 #647

Date:   11-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.865
VWAP:   16293.32
x:   2,704
a:   0.003308
b:   -0.111626
Rsq:   0.835337
Expected price:   6863.07
Actual price / expected price:   237.41%
BETI ATL price:   738.89
BETI ATH price:   44430.57
Expected date:   29-Aug-2018
# of days ahead:   261.35
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6885.81
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00330826042421309++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.111626313775941+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00330826042421309++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.111626313775941+)
   
   
   
0.5   11315.29
1.0   18655.75
1.5   30758.14
2.0   50711.60
2.5   83609.29

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December 13, 2017, 04:36:27 PM
 #648

Date:   12-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.894
VWAP:   16854.88
x:   2,705
a:   0.003309
b:   -0.112290
Rsq:   0.835519
Expected price:   6894.93
Actual price / expected price:   244.45%
BETI ATL price:   742.32
BETI ATH price:   44636.81
Expected date:   8-Sep-2018
# of days ahead:   270.13
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6917.78
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00330899465601419++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.112289520882862+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00330899465601419++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.112289520882862+)
   
   
   
0.5   11367.81
1.0   18742.35
1.5   30900.91
2.0   50946.99
2.5   83997.39

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December 16, 2017, 06:26:03 PM
 #649

Date:   12-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.894
VWAP:   16854.88
x:   2,705
a:   0.003309
b:   -0.112290
Rsq:   0.835519
Expected price:   6894.93
Actual price / expected price:   244.45%
BETI ATL price:   742.32
BETI ATH price:   44636.81
Expected date:   8-Sep-2018
# of days ahead:   270.13
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6917.78
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00330899465601419++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.112289520882862+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00330899465601419++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.112289520882862+)
   
   
   
0.5   11367.81
1.0   18742.35
1.5   30900.91
2.0   50946.99
2.5   83997.39

Probably hit 1.0 BETI today. Feels like 1.5 is baked in right now, not seeing any major panics, surge, pull back, surge.... repeat

anyone else thinking 2.5 BETI within two months?

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December 16, 2017, 06:37:49 PM
 #650

anyone else thinking 2.5 BETI within two months?

Not 2 months but it sure could happen.

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December 16, 2017, 09:33:33 PM
 #651

anyone else thinking 2.5 BETI within two months?

Not 2 months but it sure could happen.

How about in a couple weeks?
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December 16, 2017, 10:03:45 PM
 #652

To those who thought btc regression curve had shifted lower throughout the years.... I have a feeling,.... we might hit 3.0 this time... which would bring the price regression back to the original curve. Thing with btc is... the reversion rate is very slow and maybe the first regression curve was good!  
Just a gut feeling.
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December 18, 2017, 06:21:25 PM
 #653

Date:   17-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.996
VWAP:   19110.24
x:   2,710
a:   0.003313
b:   -0.115689
Rsq:   0.836426
Expected price:   7057.70
Actual price / expected price:   270.77%
BETI ATL price:   759.85
BETI ATH price:   45690.60
Expected date:   13-Oct-2018
# of days ahead:   300.69
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   7081.12
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00331275421780906++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.115689279585926+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00331275421780906++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.115689279585926+)
   
   
   
0.5   11636.18
1.0   19184.82
1.5   31630.42
2.0   52149.75
2.5   85980.40

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December 18, 2017, 10:07:02 PM
 #654

Date:   17-Dec-2017

Expected price:   7057.70

Expected date:   13-Oct-2018

Next expected price:   7081.12

any historical insight re: how this expected price action might unfold? i'm especially curious given the current trend velocity. the "expected price" is continually ramping higher, but the "expected date" is 9 months out. is there an expectation that the downside target will be much higher than the $7000s?

there's some interesting horizontal support/resistance levels in the $7400-$8350 range (bitstamp). i'm just not sure how relevant they are given the timing of everything.

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December 20, 2017, 02:04:17 PM
 #655

For the people thinking the BETI top will be higher this time, why do you think that, other than wishful thinking?

There are more inroads to buy, that's true. But there is also a lot more money that has to hit the market to move the price.

All exchanges that accept fiat deposits are already severely backlogged. Network fees, as measured both in BTC and USD will also increase with the increased usage a price spike causes, putting a natural dampener on the mania. That was not really the case in previous bubbles.

I think the tops of the 2013 bubbles are more reasonable, maybe somewhat lower.
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December 20, 2017, 02:39:39 PM
 #656

There is less fear in the market and Bitcoin has survived another 4 years. A big difference with 2013.

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December 20, 2017, 03:41:51 PM
 #657

For the people thinking the BETI top will be higher this time, why do you think that, other than wishful thinking?

There are more inroads to buy, that's true. But there is also a lot more money that has to hit the market to move the price.

All exchanges that accept fiat deposits are already severely backlogged. Network fees, as measured both in BTC and USD will also increase with the increased usage a price spike causes, putting a natural dampener on the mania. That was not really the case in previous bubbles.

I think the tops of the 2013 bubbles are more reasonable, maybe somewhat lower.

You know what's so beautiful about this backlog and mempool spam.
The people will mostly HODL!!
So it doesn't matter for instance what shitcoin gets neext pumped and endorsed by mainstream media for instance.
Or whatever FUD gets spread over social media.
Furthermore have you read what growth all the exchanges are seeing right now?!
Check bittrex, Coinbase, Bitstamp and Bitfinex for that. You will find plenty of tweets regarding that. Huge influx of people entering the space while in 2013 it was mostly innovators and "lunatics" passing the coins to each other by a doubled coin issuance per block around that time! So much has changed in those 4 years!
So check the fundamental data and do the math pal!
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December 20, 2017, 06:24:40 PM
 #658

To both of you, I agree that we have come a long way in the last four years. I just don't see why the BETI top of this bubble should be higher than those of 2013. Neither of you addressed that.
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December 20, 2017, 06:38:04 PM
 #659

To both of you, I agree that we have come a long way in the last four years. I just don't see why the BETI top of this bubble should be higher than those of 2013. Neither of you addressed that.

https://i.imgflip.com/21fd6l.jpg

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December 20, 2017, 07:57:01 PM
 #660

Neither of you addressed that.

We did but you are free to interpret otherwise.

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