BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[rpietila]

Here is x2.5 time scaling

A certain similarity is clearly apparent, remains to be seen whether it's also predictive.

(If so, $88,000 in 2020 here we come!  )

[1714503407]

1714503407

[jehst]

After the next bull market, will there be an even longer downtrend? I can see why volatility measured in percentage terms should decrease, but why should the downtrends should last longer and longer periods of time?

[jl2012]

It's up to -1.951

Date:    17-Jun-2015
VWAP:    250.32
x:    1796
a:    0.00480
b:    -1.14905
Rsq:    0.85431
The day's expected price:    1761.55
Actual price / expected price:   14.21%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.951
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   189.65
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11404.06
Predicted date for today's price:    6-May-2014
Days ahead:    -406.40
Daily price rank:    464
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00480122784177374++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.14905367401203+%29   

[jl2012]

-1.95 is a 2-month high. It was the support in Feb and Mar. Now it seems become a resistance?

[danielW]

It definitely looks like the bottom is behind us, objectively speaking. There have been so many false hopes tho over the past year and a half that nobody can be sure.

[ssmc2]

bump for one of my favs 

[DieJohnny]

To return to zero on the trend line where would the price need to be today?

[jl2012]

We are at the halfway of the year

Date:    30-Jun-2015
VWAP:    262.39
x:    1809
a:    0.00475
b:    -1.12042
Rsq:    0.85123
The day's expected price:    1770.33
Actual price / expected price:   14.82%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.909
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   190.60
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11460.89
Predicted date for today's price:    24-May-2014
Days ahead:    -401.61
Daily price rank:    450
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00475364463109772++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.12042079018883+%29   

[jl2012]

0 today is $1770

it seems -1.9 ($264) is an important resistance level

the next important one may be -1.75 ($307)

-1.95 ($252) is the first support level

bottom is -2.05 ($228)

[Room101]

Interesting thread, cheers man!

[klee]

Good job, added to my watchlist thx!

[kehtolo]

Excellent and informative thread.

Do you have a formula for calculating (excuse my terminology!) the given log value of the day?

I looked through the thread, but the only wolfram alpha links i clicked on give me the expected trend line price.. and not the log value above or below this line.
(I hope that makes sense!)

[jl2012]

Excellent and informative thread.

Do you have a formula for calculating (excuse my terminology!) the given log value of the day?

I looked through the thread, but the only wolfram alpha links i clicked on give me the expected trend line price.. and not the log value above or below this line.
(I hope that makes sense!)

Actually the expected price from the link is not very accurate. It is overestimated.

[jl2012]

Date:    6-Jul-2015
VWAP:    273.28
x:    1815
a:    0.00473
b:    -1.10763
Rsq:    0.84992
The day's expected price:    1775.53
Actual price / expected price:   15.39%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.871
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   191.16
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11494.51
Predicted date for today's price:    5-Jun-2014
Days ahead:    -395.42
Daily price rank:    440
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   

[Wary]

Hurrah! The -1.9 resistance is broken. Although not for long. So the time for $307 has not come yet

[jl2012]

Date:    11-Jul-2015
VWAP:    292.54
x:    1820
a:    0.00472
b:    -1.09730
Rsq:    0.84893
The day's expected price:    1780.87
Actual price / expected price:   16.43%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.806
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   191.73
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11529.13
Predicted date for today's price:    22-Jun-2014
Days ahead:    -383.05
Daily price rank:    424
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   

We finally left the -1.90 to -1.95 area. -1.875 ($273) is the support. -1.90 ($266) should become a major support.

Major resistance is still -1.75 ($309). Then the next mark is -1.50 ($397)

[ssmc2]

Sorry if I missed it but is this based off Stamp or Finex?

[jl2012]

Sorry if I missed it but is this based off Stamp or Finex?

Reference exchange:
  17 Jul 2010 to 18 Jun 2013: MtGox
  19 Jun 2013 to now: Bitstamp


I'm thinking whether I should change to Finex as it has bigger volume now. Anyway, the trend is the focus so there should be no much difference

[ssmc2]

Sorry if I missed it but is this based off Stamp or Finex?

Reference exchange:
  17 Jul 2010 to 18 Jun 2013: MtGox
  19 Jun 2013 to now: Bitstamp


I'm thinking whether I should change to Finex as it has bigger volume now. Anyway, the trend is the focus so there should be no much difference

Thanks!

[DieJohnny]

0 today is $1770

it seems -1.9 ($264) is an important resistance level

the next important one may be -1.75 ($307)

-1.95 ($252) is the first support level

bottom is -2.05 ($228)

What is a +2 in price today? how do i figure this out myself?