BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[Biodom]

Edit - That sounded negative . For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly.

Yes, enjoy while it lasts. Positive BETI is very rare in the 7 year history of trading

This time I expect it last about a year+. This one is going up more slowly. It has built a slower base. No more BETI parabolic moves until perhaps the very end ---> $100k+

we are in a parabolic move already with BETI above 0.
You have to see it in a linear scale as jl graphs are log scale.
I don't want to post numbers because they would look weird (short term).
It is also possible that we would peak, then "crash" like in 2013, then double peak (at your 100K).

[1714485756]

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[1714485756]

1714485756

[windjc]

Edit - That sounded negative . For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly.

Yes, enjoy while it lasts. Positive BETI is very rare in the 7 year history of trading

This time I expect it last about a year+. This one is going up more slowly. It has built a slower base. No more BETI parabolic moves until perhaps the very end ---> $100k+

we are in a parabolic move already with BETI above 0.
You have to see it in a linear scale as jl graphs are log scale.
I don't want to post numbers because they would look weird (short term).
It is also possible that we would peak, then "crash" like in 2013, then double peak (at your 100K).

Thats my point. Throw your linear charts away. Log is much more accurate. And log suggests this is going to be a MUCH slower parabolic move. We will get to 1.5+ BETI, but it might take several months this time. We aren't going there in 30 days like we have in the past.

I will agree that we could peak at say "25k" and then again at 100k+.  But I believe it will take more time at this point in history, based on how we built the base of this move.

[Biodom]

Edit - That sounded negative . For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly.

Yes, enjoy while it lasts. Positive BETI is very rare in the 7 year history of trading

This time I expect it last about a year+. This one is going up more slowly. It has built a slower base. No more BETI parabolic moves until perhaps the very end ---> $100k+

we are in a parabolic move already with BETI above 0.
You have to see it in a linear scale as jl graphs are log scale.
I don't want to post numbers because they would look weird (short term).
It is also possible that we would peak, then "crash" like in 2013, then double peak (at your 100K).

Thats my point. Throw your linear charts away. Log is much more accurate. And log suggests this is going to be a MUCH slower parabolic move. We will get to 1.5+ BETI, but it might take several months this time. We aren't going there in 30 days like we have in the past.

it will peak within 25-30 days tops (EDIT: anywhere between 16K and 40K (a.k.a BETI 1-1.6), most likely), we are already going too fast for this to be sustainable for much longer.

[windjc]

Edit - That sounded negative . For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly.

Yes, enjoy while it lasts. Positive BETI is very rare in the 7 year history of trading

This time I expect it last about a year+. This one is going up more slowly. It has built a slower base. No more BETI parabolic moves until perhaps the very end ---> $100k+

we are in a parabolic move already with BETI above 0.
You have to see it in a linear scale as jl graphs are log scale.
I don't want to post numbers because they would look weird (short term).
It is also possible that we would peak, then "crash" like in 2013, then double peak (at your 100K).

Thats my point. Throw your linear charts away. Log is much more accurate. And log suggests this is going to be a MUCH slower parabolic move. We will get to 1.5+ BETI, but it might take several months this time. We aren't going there in 30 days like we have in the past.

it will peak within 25-30 days tops (EDIT: anywhere between 16K and 40K (a.k.a BETI 1-1.6), most likely), we are already going too fast for this to be sustainable for much longer.

we will see. My bet is that we peak here before 10k, then we go below BETI. Then we go to our first 1.5 range. Then back down then back to 1.5 range around $100k. Takes 12-24 months.

[600watt]

one day my grandchildren will ask me if it is true that once had a fortune in crypto when btc peaked in 2017/2018.

kids: but why didn't´t you sell when it was at the top of this obvious bubble?

me: well fuck, it hadn't´t reached a BETI of 1.5 yet.

 


jokes aside. it will be very hard to call the top. BETI seems very tempting. could be the most important single financial transaction of a lifetime ..

maybe it is safer to wait for the top wait for it to implode and then sell near the top of the bounce. when the dec.2013 bubble popped it would have been possible to sell even in January 2014 for approx. $1000 on the top of the bounce.   

what a ride. what a fucking ride. thanks jl2012, super thread.

[Denker]

one day my grandchildren will ask me if it is true that once had a fortune in crypto when btc peaked in 2017/2018.

kids: but why didn't´t you sell when it was at the top of this obvious bubble?

me: well fuck, it hadn't´t reached a BETI of 1.5 yet.

 


jokes aside. it will be very hard to call the top. BETI seems very tempting. could be the most important single financial transaction of a lifetime ..

maybe it is safer to wait for the top wait for it to implode and then sell near the top of the bounce. when the dec.2013 bubble popped it would have been possible to sell even in January 2014 for approx. $1000 on the top of the bounce.   

what a ride. what a fucking ride. thanks jl2012, super thread.

Yeah getting the top is pretty hard. And it's even harded to part yourself from yout precious coins.Even if it's just temporarily.
And maybe we won't  explode that much like we did in the past and maybe we won't crash that hard and long again.
I mean the fundamentals have changed so much and so many things are going to happen the next 12-24 months. And after that the next halving is right around the corner!!
What I'm trying to say is that instead of crashing hard we may see dips, sideways movements and then again rising prices up to a value in a short amount of time we all may think this is crazy. But it just will be exponential growth due to s-curve adoption. We are in exciting times right now.And even more exciting times are going to come!!
And yes this here is probably one of the best and maybe the most important thread of this forum.At least for us guys! 

[DieJohnny]

one day my grandchildren will ask me if it is true that once had a fortune in crypto when btc peaked in 2017/2018.

kids: but why didn't´t you sell when it was at the top of this obvious bubble?

me: well fuck, it hadn't´t reached a BETI of 1.5 yet.

conversation will happen and it will happen more like this:

kids: are you seriously telling me you owned a whole bitcoin 20 years ago?

me: fuck me yes

kids: did you at least sell after it was worth more than Microsoft?

me: fuck me, when I sold it was only worth 1/5th the price of Microsoft.

kids: you are telling me you sold your bitcoin when nobody was even using it yet? It wasn't even worth more than that stupid dead software company?? Why pops, why did you do that?

me: that damn graph kids it was just so damn steep kids... and people kept saying beti this and beti that and I just couldn't grasp log growth kids.

kids: how many did you have pops, how many

me: <blank stair into wall>....i had... i had.... oh dear God ... dear god no.... kids can you get me my 40 year scotch... hurry kids... and my smokes kids... run quick... hurry

kids: you are a dumbass pops, a real stupid dumbass pops

[Wekkel]

one day my grandchildren will ask me if it is true that once had a fortune in crypto when btc peaked in 2017/2018.

kids: but why didn't´t you sell when it was at the top of this obvious bubble?

me: well fuck, it hadn't´t reached a BETI of 1.5 yet.

conversation will happen [...]

I bet it will be just like that. But hindsight is everything. We all want to be Marty with his little sports book.

[Biodom]

one day my grandchildren will ask me if it is true that once had a fortune in crypto when btc peaked in 2017/2018.

kids: but why didn't´t you sell when it was at the top of this obvious bubble?

me: well fuck, it hadn't´t reached a BETI of 1.5 yet.

conversation will happen [...]

I bet it will be just like that. But hindsight is everything. We all want to be Marty with his little sports book.

Sure. I remember seeing Wired article in Nov 2011 ($2) and thinking: this just cannot survive or would be crushed.
Woke up from the stupor almost two years later in October of 2013 with price going up too fast, similar to now, although this time it is the Wall Street.

BTW, I know that it is not in the charts, but all btc "shavings" add up nicely as well (we are at $8100 really, if you add BCC/BCH and BTG).
Baby Bells analogy starting to ring "something", but most people just ignore them for now, although with a larger chunk possibly going to 2X, this would have to be taken into account eventually, most likely.

[vit05]

5952.48645684 Today.


7390 - 5952 = 1,438

I think that the price today reflects the expect price of 2x that would probably cost something like 1400

[mmortal03]

danielW, would it be possible to make the lines between data points on your Google Docs charts thinner?

[jl2012]

Date:   9-Nov-2017
BETI:   0.175
VWAP:   7229.10
x:   2,672
a:   0.003298
b:   -0.102756
Rsq:   0.829778
Expected price:   6066.71
Actual price / expected price:   119.16%
BETI ATL price:   653.15
BETI ATH price:   39275.05
Expected date:   1-Jan-2018
# of days ahead:   53.15
Daily VWAP rank:   5
Next expected price:   6086.75
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329840126098096++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.102756439182989+%29   

[jl2012]

The high was made on 5th Nov at 0.219

[windjc]

The high was made on 5th Nov at 0.219

Still building a slow curve and a slow base. This rise is going to take a while guys. Its not going to be quite like the others, imho.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Still building a slow curve and a slow base. This rise is going to take a while guys. Its not going to be quite like the others, imho.

I concur with that.

Going back to to test BETI= 0.0 on this correction?

edit: changed 1.0 to 0.0

[600watt]

Still building a slow curve and a slow base. This rise is going to take a while guys. Its not going to be quite like the others, imho.

I concur with that.

Going back to to test BETI= 1.0 on this correction?

you mean -1 ?

[jl2012]

Date:   13-Nov-2017
BETI:   0.039
VWAP:   6395.47
x:   2,676
a:   0.003299
b:   -0.102904
Rsq:   0.830424
Expected price:   6149.09
Actual price / expected price:   104.01%
BETI ATL price:   662.02
BETI ATH price:   39808.40
Expected date:   24-Nov-2017
# of days ahead:   11.91
Daily VWAP rank:   12
Next expected price:   6169.41
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329856657865302++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.102904038110563+%29   

It briefly went below 0 on 12th Nov

[marcus_of_augustus]

Still building a slow curve and a slow base. This rise is going to take a while guys. Its not going to be quite like the others, imho.

I concur with that.

Going back to to test BETI= 1.0 on this correction?

you mean -1 ?

... ooops, meant 0 not 1.

[Pruden]

How long until you reckon we departed an exponential line long ago? It's obviously slowing down irreversibly since 2014.

[Wekkel]

It is above the 0-line so what do you mean with ‘slowing down’?