BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[DieJohnny]

going the wrong direction.... looks to me like we are in a major bear cycle....

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[figmentofmyass]

going the wrong direction.... looks to me like we are in a major bear cycle....

unfortunately, given the weakness of every bounce since the december top, the chart is significantly more bearish than 2014. it's really starting to look like a non-stop massacre just like 2011. i wasn't around at that time, so i can't comment on what sentiment was like. but it seems like the closest parallel we have right now.

whatever happens, a 95% decline isn't the end of the world. but it would be painful. this board would probably be a ghost town.

[windjc]

going the wrong direction.... looks to me like we are in a major bear cycle....

unfortunately, given the weakness of every bounce since the december top, the chart is significantly more bearish than 2014. it's really starting to look like a non-stop massacre just like 2011. i wasn't around at that time, so i can't comment on what sentiment was like. but it seems like the closest parallel we have right now.

whatever happens, a 95% decline isn't the end of the world. but it would be painful. this board would probably be a ghost town.

LOL. It does not feel like 2014. Were you around then? It does feel kinda bearish though.

[figmentofmyass]

going the wrong direction.... looks to me like we are in a major bear cycle....

unfortunately, given the weakness of every bounce since the december top, the chart is significantly more bearish than 2014. it's really starting to look like a non-stop massacre just like 2011. i wasn't around at that time, so i can't comment on what sentiment was like. but it seems like the closest parallel we have right now.

whatever happens, a 95% decline isn't the end of the world. but it would be painful. this board would probably be a ghost town.

LOL. It does not feel like 2014. Were you around then? It does feel kinda bearish though.

i didn't say it feels like 2014. i said it's more bearish. and yes, i was around back then. after the initial crash, we made a 78.6% retrace. this time? we barely got past 38.2% and now we're approaching $6000 again.

i'm just taken aback by the sentiment and the perpetual lack of bounce. the market has flushed out 50% of longs, while shorts are again nearing all-time highs. yet still we bleed. not impressed by the volume on this dump either. no capitulation here....

[windjc]

going the wrong direction.... looks to me like we are in a major bear cycle....

unfortunately, given the weakness of every bounce since the december top, the chart is significantly more bearish than 2014. it's really starting to look like a non-stop massacre just like 2011. i wasn't around at that time, so i can't comment on what sentiment was like. but it seems like the closest parallel we have right now.

whatever happens, a 95% decline isn't the end of the world. but it would be painful. this board would probably be a ghost town.

LOL. It does not feel like 2014. Were you around then? It does feel kinda bearish though.

i didn't say it feels like 2014. i said it's more bearish. and yes, i was around back then. after the initial crash, we made a 78.6% retrace. this time? we barely got past 38.2% and now we're approaching $6000 again.

i'm just taken aback by the sentiment and the perpetual lack of bounce. the market has flushed out 50% of longs, while shorts are again nearing all-time highs. yet still we bleed. not impressed by the volume on this dump either. no capitulation here....

You are experiencing the first signs of despair. Welcome the pain. It is a necessary part of the process.

Btw in April ‘13 after the low of $45 we only made a 33% retrace bounce. But I don’t want to get your hopes up.

[Denker]

going the wrong direction.... looks to me like we are in a major bear cycle....

Yeah that's my feeling as well. The bounces are weak and many new people still seem to be in a too good mood.
If the honeybadger decides to take a long and deep dive, we could see a huge washout in the whole crypto space. The crypto winter may just have started. Many people will leave crying.
But maybe that's what we need right now after all this ICO and altcoin p&d craziness.

[Mallyx]

going the wrong direction.... looks to me like we are in a major bear cycle....

Yeah that's my feeling as well. The bounces are weak and many new people still seem to be in a too good mood.
If the honeybadger decides to take a long and deep dive, we could see a huge washout in the whole crypto space. The crypto winter may just have started. Many people will leave crying.
But maybe that's what we need right now after all this ICO and altcoin p&d craziness.

I just think most peoples are used to that kind of drop and don't care anymore.
Also new peoples are educated by olders about the past performances of BTC.

Everybody is aware of the dump from 1k to $250.
All dumps looks less dramatic than they were.

[neilol-real]

No one is pointing towards a double bottom here reflecting the "first bubble" in 2013 at around $250. I think that's still on the table until we go below -.5 BETI. We bounced back at around -.4 correct?

I don't know much about fractals except they seem to work sometimes...

[figmentofmyass]

i didn't say it feels like 2014. i said it's more bearish. and yes, i was around back then. after the initial crash, we made a 78.6% retrace. this time? we barely got past 38.2% and now we're approaching $6000 again.

i'm just taken aback by the sentiment and the perpetual lack of bounce. the market has flushed out 50% of longs, while shorts are again nearing all-time highs. yet still we bleed. not impressed by the volume on this dump either. no capitulation here....

You are experiencing the first signs of despair. Welcome the pain. It is a necessary part of the process.

yeah, i get that, which is why i bring up capitulation. gotta shake them trees, and create some bottom selling. that creates fuel for future rallies. i'm just disappointed to see no big volume coming in to indicate that kind of despair and mass selling. no such luck.

who knows, though. maybe this is a low-volume retest of the lows.

Btw in April ‘13 after the low of $45 we only made a 33% retrace bounce. But I don’t want to get your hopes up.

yeah i originally thought this could resemble that fractal. and it still can, as long as we don't go below $6000. if we start pushing below there, there was so much volume on that feb 5 candle that we'll probably go significantly lower. and it'll look like 2011.

[ssmc2]

Update? 

[bitserve]

We are at BETI -0.2445 and expected price today is: $10708.

It doesn't seem that the crossover will happen before over 11K.

[bitserve]

Real time expected (BETI 0) price is $11792 now.

[Asrael999]

So we're in nicely negative beti territory now, somewhere around -0.32/33 area?   If we repeat previous post bubble behaviour with lows in the -2 area, that looks like 3.5kish at year end. Don't suppose you could repost the time series graphs jl2012 ( last ones were 2/2 I think)?

[bitserve]

So we're in nicely negative beti territory now, somewhere around -0.32/33 area?   If we repeat previous post bubble behaviour with lows in the -2 area, that looks like 3.5kish at year end. Don't suppose you could repost the time series graphs jl2012 ( last ones were 2/2 I think)?

It is -0.43 BETI and $12327 expected price now.

Would be great to see an update of the graph but it has been some time since jl2012 doesn't post here.

[0xLITECOIN]

how do you think alts affect beti calculation?

[john803]

Given 4 month old regression values as per jl2012's last February post:

todays BETI = -0.737

BETI -1.16 = $4144
BETI -2.23 = $1423


We could stay at today's price until Sep.1 2019 @ BETI -2.23
We could stay at today's price until Oct 17 2018 @ BETI -1.16
($6270)

[john803]

Would be great to see an update of the graph but it has been some time since jl2012 doesn't post here.

Here's my version:



Maybe BETI -1.16 is the new -2.23?

[john803]

Thanks JL2012 for the idea.  

Since he hasn't updated in a while, here you go.  

Date   6/15/18
VWAP   $6,545.67
x   2890
y   8.786559194
a (slope) historical   0.003310
b (intercept) historical   -0.112294
Rsq historical   0.860021
BETI historical   -0.667
Expected Price historical   $12,757.93
Actual price / expected price historical   51.31%
Expected Date historical   11/25/17
# of Days ahead historical   -201.59
Daily VWAP Rank historical   222
Next expected price historical   $12,800.23

BETI (Historical) and BETI (Current) Chart



-2.25   $1,344.68
-2.00   $1,726.60
-1.75   $2,217.00
-1.50   $2,846.68
-1.25   $3,655.21
-1.00   $4,693.38
-0.75   $6,026.42
-0.50   $7,738.07
-0.25   $9,935.88
 0.00   $12,757.93
 0.25   $16,381.50
 0.50   $21,034.27
 0.75   $27,008.53
 1.00   $34,679.64
 1.25   $44,529.54
 1.50   $57,177.07
 1.75   $73,416.81
 2.00   $94,269.04

Sorry, I can't post inline pictures here as a Newbie since I never bothered making an account (been here a long time).  

[0xLITECOIN]

hang on that beti trendline .... defn sloping down always .... so why 0? is offsetting to the trendline more a better measure?

[john803]

hang on that beti trendline .... defn sloping down always .... so why 0? is offsetting to the trendline more a better measure?

What do you mean, I don't understand your question?