BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[il_minatore]

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.

Hi,
how did you plot the last chart? thanks

[windjc]

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.

Thanks!

BETI very close to historical support at -1.

Maybe close to good bounce area.

[DieJohnny]

Feels like this past Dec pump to $20k was like the early pump in 2013 to $220.... which had a correction to 60s and then up to 1200. A parallel would be the Dec 20k corrects to 5000s and then up to 80-100k... is this then the Beti bottom? #BETIBOTTOM

[Iris_Colt]

BETI very close to historical support at -1.

Maybe close to good bounce area.

In my humble opinion, BETI heads toward -2.0 (hopefully not).

[Iris_Colt]

Hi,
how did you plot the last chart? thanks

Following user jl2012's instructions from their first post, etc.

tl;dr:
Mt. Gox, CSV data available from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
Bitstamp, CSV data available from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today, implicitly removing from 6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp was closed).
VWAP: daily Volume Weighted Average Price (from bitcoincharts.com), i.e. when computing the average for a given day, the price is being multiplied by the volume of bitcoin traded at that price.
Regression model (computed in C with gsl_fit_linear(): y = ax + b,  where y = natural logarithm of VWAP; x = days since MtGox inception, i.e. 17 Jul 2010 = 0; a = slope; b = intercept
Today's exponential tread expected price: the expected price of today based on the regression model, i.e. = ax + b
BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index. BETI = ln (daily VWAP / exponential tread expected price) [For example, on Sep 2 2018, the VWAP was $7244.62 and the expected price was $15,306.94. BETI = ln ($7244.62/$15,306.94) = -0.748048]

[Iris_Colt]

Just a quick update...

Date   9/5/18
VWAP   $7055.87
x   2972
y   8.861616
a (slope) historical   +0.0032683894
b (intercept) historical   -0.0708358360
Rsq historical   0.866482
BETI historical   -0.781202 (kek!)
Expected Price historical   $15,410.70
Actual price / expected price historical   45.79%

[il_minatore]

Hi,
how did you plot the last chart? thanks

Following user jl2012's instructions from their first post, etc.

tl;dr:
Mt. Gox, CSV data available from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
Bitstamp, CSV data available from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today, implicitly removing from 6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp was closed).
VWAP: daily Volume Weighted Average Price (from bitcoincharts.com), i.e. when computing the average for a given day, the price is being multiplied by the volume of bitcoin traded at that price.
Regression model (computed in C with gsl_fit_linear(): y = ax + b,  where y = natural logarithm of VWAP; x = days since MtGox inception, i.e. 17 Jul 2010 = 0; a = slope; b = intercept
Today's exponential tread expected price: the expected price of today based on the regression model, i.e. = ax + b
BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index. BETI = ln (daily VWAP / exponential tread expected price) [For example, on Sep 2 2018, the VWAP was $7244.62 and the expected price was $15,306.94. BETI = ln ($7244.62/$15,306.94) = -0.748048]

for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange

[Iris_Colt]

for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange

Okay. The following stats are obtained as follows:

• Mt. Gox: from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
• coinbase + bitstamp + btce + kraken + bitfinex + cex + lake + localbtc + wex + btcalpha + itbit + hitbtc: from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today

Date   9/6/18 (yeah, I am starting to have data available from today)
VWAP   $6417.29
x   2973
y   8.766752
a (slope) historical   +0.0032734323
b (intercept) historical   -0.0742908548
Rsq historical   0.866719
BETI historical   -0.890872
Expected Price historical   $15,640.56
Actual price / expected price historical   41.03%

Not that it matters, kek.

[Kaydking]

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?

[Iris_Colt]

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?

Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.

[Iris_Colt]

for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange

By the way, il_minatore, feel free to make a list of your preferred exchanges, and I will produce the relevant BETI statistics.

[mmortal03]

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?

Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.

lol, make sure to buy the dip really hard, that way it doesn't last that long.

[Mallyx]

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?

As we are on BETI -0.89, we can still expect to going down to -2.
It's only an indicator that tell us how low or high it can go.

[Iris_Colt]

Just a not-so-quick update.

The stats are obtained as follows:

• All the historical BTC/USD data available at bitcoincharts,com is used.
• So a total of 175,864,433 entries since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today are used.
• The exchanges included are: 1coin, abucoins, allcoin, anxhk, b2c, b7, bcLR, bcmBM, bcmLR, bcmMB, bcmPP, bitalo, bitbay, bitbox, bitcurex, bitfinex, bitfloor, bitflyer, bitkonan, bitmarket, bitme, bitstamp, btc24, btcalpha, btcc, btce, btcex, btctree, cbx, cex, coinbase, coinsbank, cotr, cryptox, crytr, exchb, exmo, fbtc, getbtc, global, hitbtc, ibwt, icbit, imcex, indacoin, intrsng, itbit, just, kraken, lake, localbtc, lybit, mtgox, okcoin, ripple, rock, ruxum, thLR, th, vcx, weex, wex

Date   9/6/18
VWAP   $6422.69
x   2973
y   8.767592
a (slope) historical   +0.00327084849169102
b (intercept) historical   -0.069262946826707
Rsq historical   0.864354018483482
BETI historical   -0.887377824698852
Expected Price historical   $15,599.11
Actual price / expected price historical   41.1733977153379%

-2.00   $2,111.11
-1.50   $3,480.63
-1.00   $5,738.59
-0.50   $9,461.34
-0.25  $12,148.60
+0.00  $15,599.11
+0.25  $20,029.66
+0.50  $25,718.60
+1.00  $42402.80

You know... It cannot be more comprehensive than this... and the result is very similar to the one using just Mt Gox and Bitstamp.

[exstasie]

BETI very close to historical support at -1.

Maybe close to good bounce area.

I was going to ask Iris_Colt why they thought BETI was bound for -2.0. Then I saw the chart. Unfortunately, it sure looks like historical support lies closer to the -2.0 area.

Anyone know what kind of range to expect for -2.0, 3 months or 6 months from now? (assuming we stay sideways)

Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.

Why 7 years?

[Iris_Colt]

Just a quick clarification... in order to prevent PMs.

In my previous post, even when I mentioned that "175,864,433 entries since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 were used" this was not totally correct (my fault). I really started at user jl2012's original date of Saturday, 17 July 2010. This was for comparison purposes.

But if absolutely all the data is used... then the BETI stats are as follows:

Date   9/6/18
VWAP   $6422.69
x   3056 (note this)
y   8.767592
a (slope) historical   +0.0034328567
b (intercept) historical   -0.6732619229
Rsq historical   0.849800825183905
BETI historical   -1.0499563126
Expected Price historical   $18353.00
Actual price / expected price historical   34.99530373%

-2.00   $2,483.81
-1.50   $4,095.11
-1.00   $6,751.69
-0.50   $11,131.65
-0.25  $14293.33
+0.00  $18,353.00
+0.25  $23,565.71
+0.50  $30,258.97
+1.00  $49,888.61

[Iris_Colt]

And this will be the historical BETI chart using absolutely all the BTC/USD entries in bitcoincharts.com since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today:

https://i.imgur.com/dc5h98r.png

[mmortal03]

And this will be the historical BETI chart using absolutely all the BTC/USD entries in bitcoincharts.com since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today:

Excellent. Thank you for this.

[Iris_Colt]

Note: the previous BETI chart was an "historical" plot computed with its regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on the information that was available until that day (so also all days preceding it).

Please compare it with the following chart, which re-computes all past BETIs based on the knowledge we have today, and using only the current data regression parameters. Past BETI values change, obviously, but the plot offers more “big picture rambling” for those of you noticing the current resistance level, with a look at where we are today...

https://i.imgur.com/ZArJRDS.png

[neilol-real-again]

Would love to see an update

Is there a wolfram alpha equation set up for this yet?