BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[jl2012]

Date:    4-Oct-2017
BETI:   -0.240
VWAP:    4233.87
x:    2636
a:    0.00330
b:    -0.10239
Rsq:    0.82395
The day's expected price:    5383.76
Actual price / expected price:   78.64%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   579.63
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   34853.75
Predicted date for today's price:    23-Jul-2017
Days ahead:    -72.85
Daily price rank:    22
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329800207260096++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.102390514926083+%29   

[1714476428]

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[jl2012]

[spiderbrain]

Perhaps we will break 0 this time...

[jl2012]

Date:    11-Oct-2017
BETI:   -0.138
VWAP:    4789.38
x:    2643
a:    0.00330
b:    -0.10142
Rsq:    0.82499
The day's expected price:    5498.78
Actual price / expected price:   87.10%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   592.01
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   35598.34
Predicted date for today's price:    30-Aug-2017
Days ahead:    -41.90
Daily price rank:    3
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329689632386869++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101415914896682+%29   

[jl2012]

Now it requires >$5500 to go above 0. The "0 price" is increasing by >$16 per day

[DieJohnny]

It bottomed at about -0.41, and is currently around -0.3. The next resistance is -0.2 ($4330)

By the way, we need >$5300 to get a BETI of 0

Ok, we have to be positive now, next stop +2?

[Biodom]

Now it requires >$5500 to go above 0. The "0 price" is increasing by >$16 per day

Done? $5596 right now.
Trace Mayer threw in a $27K short term target, which is kind of similar to 1.87 BETI
EDIT: I wonder if he is BETI's fan, otherwise the coincidence is uncanny
Not sure what VWAP is/will be for today, though.

[TwoCorn]

this is interesting... so just using an exponential trend, basically?

yes, but the regression is done everyday only using the data available at that day

We had a big jump in BETI yesterday. It's now over -0.2. As of writing the price is $4080. I think it's very possible to see 0 BETI

BETI for some psychological resistance:

5000    0.085905352
7500    0.49137046
10000    0.779052532
15000     1.18451764
20000     1.472199713
25000     1.695343264

Since we've gone above 0, it might be a good idea to keep an eye on these psychological resistance points. If the trend continues, we'll want some targets for profit taking, for sure.

I know there must be plenty of technical points of resistance between here and the upper range of these psych points, but if it stays above 0 with conviction, we're in a zone with only a handful of historically similar moves.

Love this thread. I always come back to the log trend lines.

[Denker]

Ok now I think we've reached a point where this thread is becoming pretty interesting again for everyone of us!!
We should be above zero now. Let's see in how far history will repeat again.
Thx @jl2012 for this very informative thread.

[jl2012]

It's 10 hours before we could confirm a positive BETI. It was a near miss in September. So finger crossed

[tigertigertiger]

Now only 30k left to be in a bubble again. Would like to see that.

[dieselapa]

Now only 30k left to be in a bubble again. Would like to see that.

Arguably we are already in a bubble. 30k more would be BETI all time high.

I'm thinking that we won't see a bubble reaching as high as the 1.5-1-8 BETI range this time around. The amount of transactions that would require on the blockchain would make the fees skyrocket in terms of satoshis/byte. This, coupled with a higher price per satoshi, would make a lot of the new blood (which are the ones that would drive up the price) start doubting if a bitcoin is really worth 15k, or whatever it's up to at that point.
I think it's more likely that we will have a second bubble that will bring us there, once aggregated signatures and lightning network is starting to become widespread.

[Biodom]

Now only 30k left to be in a bubble again. Would like to see that.

Arguably we are already in a bubble.

Nope, and BETI shows it.

Now only 30k left to be in a bubble again. Would like to see that.

30k more would be BETI all time high.

also less than BETI ATH at 30k, jl will probably post tonight.
I don't see any reason for BETI to NOT reach at least 1.5 this time around, maybe more.
This jerking up and down is heavy cavalry of WS that is on the march: 55 funds with a single fund (Novogratz) at 550 mil.
Add to it GS, Cohen, etc.
Internet stocks went to $3 tril (from numbers similar to crypto today) in 1998-2000.

[jl2012]

Without a big crash in the coming 2.5 hours, today (13/10/2017) should have a positive BETI

Date:   12-Oct-2017
BETI:   -0.069
VWAP:   5149.57
x:   2,644
a:   0.003297
b:   -0.101364
Rsq:   0.825148
Expected price:   5516.36
Actual price / expected price:   93.35%
BETI ATL price:   593.90
BETI ATH price:   35712.17
Expected date:   21-Sep-2017
# of days ahead:   -20.87
Daily VWAP rank:   1
   
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.0032968371699958++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101363689764087+%29   

[vit05]

Last time it was positive we have a little crash. And then a big one.

[jl2012]

For all the long-term follower of this thread, yesterday is a very remarkable day. We see the first positive BETI after 1295 days.

This could be the craziest but also final phrase of the bull market. Historically, positive BETI is very rare. Once a bubble was growing above 0 BETI, the tops were made in 48 days at most.

Date:   13-Oct-2017
BETI:   0.012
VWAP:   5600.53
x:   2,645
a:   0.003297
b:   -0.101373
Rsq:   0.825312
Expected price:   5534.68
Actual price / expected price:   101.19%
BETI ATL price:   595.87
BETI ATH price:   35830.75
Expected date:   16-Oct-2017
# of days ahead:   3.59
Daily VWAP rank:   1

[jl2012]

[jl2012]

This is some of the interesting price level and BETI. Given the 2 BETI top in 2013 were both around 1.5, I think the craziest price could be $25000

One should also note that BETI has been making higher lows and higher highs since mid-2015, and the uptrend is accelerating

If you like this thread and/or it helps you making profit, please consider donating to 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3

Price    BETI
 5000   -0.095087878
 7500   0.31037723
10000   0.598059303
15000   1.003524411
20000   1.291206483
25000   1.514350035
   
   
BETI   Price
0   5498.78
0.25   7060.57
0.5   9065.95
0.75   11640.91
1   14947.23
1.25   19192.62
1.5   24643.81
1.75   31643.28
2   40630.78

[Wekkel]

The long term chart looks like the biggest built base ever so the top may also set a new record. But $25k when above 1.5 BETI seems like a save bet to scale back on the HODL some.

[btc4lifer]

I have a feeling BETI is going to hit new highs.