BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[jl2012]

Date:   7-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.789
VWAP:   14840.19
x:   2,700
a:   0.003306
b:   -0.109277
Rsq:   0.834606
Expected price:   6741.23
Actual price / expected price:   220.14%
BETI ATL price:   725.78
BETI ATH price:   43641.81
Expected date:   2-Aug-2018
# of days ahead:   238.71
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6763.55
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00330565747461043++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.109277314242136+)

Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00330565747461043++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.109277314242136+)
   
   
   
0.5   11114.41
1.0   18324.57
1.5   30212.10
2.0   49811.34
2.5   82125.01

[1714474654]

1714474654

[1714474654]

1714474654

[1714474654]

1714474654

[jl2012]

BETI is going up vertically, and 1-1.5 seems possible

Since the thread was started in Feb 2014, this is the first time that the model is tested in a bubble. In 2015 it has been tested in a deer bear market and worked very well

[criptix]

im holding my breath until 35k - after that i gonna short like a mofo. 

[MNDan]

I'm surprised how far out that expected date is.

[explorer]

im holding my breath until 35k - after that i gonna short like a mofo. 

All the way to 70k?

[Biodom]

Fascinating...I am trying to come up with a trading plan for some amount, but too many possibilities plus externalities (futures, etc.).

[redmeat]

Can i see the data somewhere, how many days we were ahead of trend in previous bubbles? this could be an could indicator aswell.

[jl2012]

Date:   8-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.814
VWAP:   15285.20
x:   2,701
a:   0.003306
b:   -0.109882
Rsq:   0.834790
Expected price:   6771.72
Actual price / expected price:   225.72%
BETI ATL price:   729.06
BETI ATH price:   43839.18
Expected date:   11-Aug-2018
# of days ahead:   246.23
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6794.15
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00330632819933669++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.109882260466145+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00330632819933669++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.109882260466145+)
   
   
   
0.5   11164.68
1.0   18407.44
1.5   30348.74
2.0   50036.61
2.5   82496.42

[jl2012]

Can i see the data somewhere, how many days we were ahead of trend in previous bubbles? this could be an could indicator aswell.

[redmeat]

Update? looks like next btc leg up

[jl2012]

Date:   10-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.734
VWAP:   14233.61
x:   2,703
a:   0.003308
b:   -0.110985
Rsq:   0.835154
Expected price:   6831.66
Actual price / expected price:   208.35%
BETI ATL price:   735.51
BETI ATH price:   44227.20
Expected date:   19-Jul-2018
# of days ahead:   221.93
Daily VWAP rank:   4
Next expected price:   6854.29
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00330754969717765++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.110984575379508+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00330754969717765++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.110984575379508+)
   
   
   
0.5   11263.50
1.0   18570.36
1.5   30617.35
2.0   50479.48
2.5   83226.60

[neilol-real]

im holding my breath until 35k - after that i gonna short like a mofo. 

Profit take? Yes. Short? Are you insane?!

[wobbzz]

Date:   10-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.734
VWAP:   14233.61

   
0.5   11263.50
1.0   18570.36
1.5   30617.35
2.0   50479.48
2.5   83226.60

jl2012 could you do a quote like this for what 0.5 - 2.5 would be around August 9th 2018? I'm curious how it lines up if this fractal plays out from mid 2012 - 2014:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

[Biodom]

jl2012 could you do a quote like this for what 0.5 - 2.5 would be around August 9th 2018? I'm curious how it lines up if this fractal plays out from mid 2012 - 2014:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

not jl, but looking at the graphs it is clear that anything between 0 and 2 is a very short living spike as it is supra-exponential.
In all likelihood by the summer of 2018 the graph would be below zero (or fluctuating around it).

[btcone111]

jl2012 could you do a quote like this for what 0.5 - 2.5 would be around August 9th 2018? I'm curious how it lines up if this fractal plays out from mid 2012 - 2014:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

not jl, but looking at the graphs it is clear that anything between 0 and 2 is a very short living spike as it is supra-exponential.
In all likelihood by the summer of 2018 the graph would be below zero (or fluctuating around it).

Looks like historically spikes could be lasting for around 2 quarters....
Think we have used up one quarter already.... Scary times.

[Equilux]

Date:   10-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.734
VWAP:   14233.61
x:   2,703
a:   0.003308
b:   -0.110985
Rsq:   0.835154
Expected price:   6831.66
Actual price / expected price:   208.35%
BETI ATL price:   735.51
BETI ATH price:   44227.20
Expected date:   19-Jul-2018
# of days ahead:   221.93
Daily VWAP rank:   4
Next expected price:   6854.29
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00330754969717765++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.110984575379508+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00330754969717765++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.110984575379508+)
   
   
   
0.5   11263.50
1.0   18570.36
1.5   30617.35
2.0   50479.48
2.5   83226.60

Thanks for the real-time links aswell! Very usefull!

[ragnar0k]

Maybe it is a stupid question... But shouldn't BETI take into account the increasing market CAP?
I mean, volatility should decrease with the increase of MC (so even a bubble over 1.5 might become sustainable given enough cap)

[explorer]

Maybe it is a stupid question... But shouldn't BETI take into account the increasing market CAP?
I mean, volatility should decrease with the increase of MC (so even a bubble over 1.5 might become sustainable given enough cap)

A lot of that is icecap, so the float remains astonishingly small...

[btc4lifer]

Maybe it is a stupid question... But shouldn't BETI take into account the increasing market CAP?
I mean, volatility should decrease with the increase of MC (so even a bubble over 1.5 might become sustainable given enough cap)

What if this is the strongest move bitcoin has ever had? Should the volatility be less then?

[ragnar0k]

Maybe it is a stupid question... But shouldn't BETI take into account the increasing market CAP?
I mean, volatility should decrease with the increase of MC (so even a bubble over 1.5 might become sustainable given enough cap)

What if this is the strongest move bitcoin has ever had? Should the volatility be less then?

Yes. I am wondering if it can be really applied now given that the basis since when BETI was made, audience and infrastructure were different. The pool of buyers was so limited it is not even comparable
Ideally, you would want to consider the amount of users coming in
EDIT to make my point more clear: let's assume in 2013 Satoshi decided to pay for a Super Bowl ad and a football world cup ad. 40 Million people joined MtGox buying at least 400$ worth of bitcoins each, rising the value to 4000$ (just throwing numbers here, sorry). Wouldn't BETI still consider it a bubble although fundamentals are correct?

Also, I don't get why in August/September 2013 (according to charts in p. 32) we had 0 or less BETI when we were clearly ahead (BETI expected ~30$ vs an actual of ~100$)