Bitcoin Forum
November 23, 2019, 01:23:02 AM *
News: The forum is 10 years old today!
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 »
  Print  
Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 108870 times)
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
April 14, 2014, 01:20:41 PM
 #81

[...]

I've been participating in this thread (on-topic) since February 26th.

My apologies to jl2012 for my part in the recent thread derailment.

That said, I stand behind my above on-topic statements: jl2012's model (and its presentation) is, by a large margin, the most mature regression model posted in this subforum since I've been around (April last year).

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
1574472182
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574472182

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574472182
Reply with quote  #2

1574472182
Report to moderator
1574472182
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574472182

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574472182
Reply with quote  #2

1574472182
Report to moderator
1574472182
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574472182

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574472182
Reply with quote  #2

1574472182
Report to moderator
The Bitcoin Forum is turning 10 years old! Join the community in sharing and exploring the notable posts made over the years.
1574472182
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574472182

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574472182
Reply with quote  #2

1574472182
Report to moderator
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652
Merit: 1005



View Profile
April 14, 2014, 01:59:28 PM
 #82

Since I am also interested in the model, care someone tell, if the model in his opinion has predictive value, and does it give buy/sell signals or zones or anything?
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
April 14, 2014, 03:41:40 PM
 #83

Since I am also interested in the model, care someone tell, if the model in his opinion has predictive value, and does it give buy/sell signals or zones or anything?

y-axis is ln(price/trend)



It seems a bubble is likely to pop when the price is e^1.5 = 4.48 times over the trend line.

Using 1.5 as cut-off.......

in the first bubble, one would have sold at $17.16 on 04/06/2011, 5 days before the bubble pop but only 53% of the bubble top

in the second bubble, one would have sold at $211.97 on 09/04/2013, just the day before the bubble pop with 79.7% of the bubble top

in the latest bubble, one would have sold at $976 on 28/11/2013, 7 days before the bubble pop with 84.6% of the bubble top

So the advice could be to start selling when it is over by 4.48 times. Sell more when it goes higher.

There is no reliable buy signal from this plot

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
piramida
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 1005



View Profile
April 14, 2014, 04:58:59 PM
 #84


There is no reliable buy signal from this plot

Well, obviously buy at any price below zero would have served anyone well. I'd say something like this works well - <0 - oversold, start buying batches, >1 - overbought, start selling batches. For a long-term speculative play, this is a no-brainer (thanks btw for the thread and all).

i am satoshi
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652
Merit: 1005



View Profile
April 14, 2014, 06:37:27 PM
 #85

Thanks, it looks nice. The tops are neatly aligned.

What I mentioned concerning "my" trendline, the signals can only be calibrated after the event, so yours as well as mine would have started to predict events only in 2013 - before that there was only noise. Moreover, your line anticipated going really low vs. the trend in the mid-2013 bottom, and the followers would not have bought at all, losing the runup to $1000, whereas mine gave a correct buy signal at $70, which was calibrated in 10/2011 bottom by taking its trendline value.

Both seem to indicate that this is a buy zone, or what do you think?
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
May 02, 2014, 03:08:27 AM
 #86

Date:    1-May-2014
VWAP:    458.55
x:    1384
a:    0.00603
b:    -1.81597
Rsq:    0.88827
The day's expected price:    681.62
Predicted date for today's price:    24-Feb-2014
Days ahead:    -65.78
Daily price rank:    148
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    28-Jul-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00602633100156526++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.81596922051291+%29   

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
May 02, 2014, 03:11:11 AM
 #87

This bear market is worse than the 2013 one


Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
wobber
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000


View Profile
May 02, 2014, 05:33:29 PM
 #88

Thank you for the postings. Yes, this market is sad. And boring.

If you hate me, you can spam me here: 19wdQNKjnATkgXvpzmSrkSYhJtuJWb8mKs
podyx
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1918
Merit: 1012



View Profile
May 02, 2014, 05:39:39 PM
 #89

This bear market is worse than the 2013 one



It kinda makes me think we are gonna come back harder then ever when this bearmarket is over
wobber
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000


View Profile
May 02, 2014, 05:46:16 PM
 #90

You mean higher? I saw it would be easier to go to 1500-1700 if price was 800 than from 400 to 1700.

If you hate me, you can spam me here: 19wdQNKjnATkgXvpzmSrkSYhJtuJWb8mKs
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
May 26, 2014, 04:45:14 AM
 #91

Date:    25-May-2014
VWAP:    565.30
x:    1408
a:    0.00599
b:    -1.80043
Rsq:    0.89174
The day's expected price:    763.31
Predicted date for today's price:    4-Apr-2014
Days ahead:    -50.11
Daily price rank:    119
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    3-Aug-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00599296718203962++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.80042714221527+%29   

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
May 26, 2014, 04:49:16 AM
 #92

It's recovering, but we are still trading at 74% of the trend line, or 50 days behind it.

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
crocko
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 826
Merit: 1000


'All that glitters is not gold'


View Profile
July 26, 2014, 08:49:09 PM
 #93



------------------------

Date: 16 Feb 2014
VWAP = 625.45
x = 1310
a = 0.006037
b = -1.82098
Rsq = 0.871816
Today's expected price = 440.0484
Predicted date for today's price = 15 Apr 2014
Days ahead = 58
Daily price rank = 84
Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 26 Jul 2014
------------------------

tl;dr:

ASSUMING the bitcoin price is growing with an exponential trend in long-term:

We expect bitcoin price to grow by about (1 - e^a) = (1 - e^0.006037) = 0.6055% per day
87.1816% (Rsq) of the variation in bitcoin price could be explained solely by time (which is very high)
The long-term "fair" price of today is only 440.0484. We are outpacing the long-term trend.
We expect to see today's price (625.45) on 15 Apr 2014, which is 58 days later
We expect to see ATH (1126) on 26 Jul 2014
Today's price is the 84th highest in the history of bitcoin

-----------------------------

Hello !

Today it is 26 Jul 2014, and NO ATH occurred..
Price of the Bitcoin,  is ~ $590 and still descending ... Undecided

Find my posts helpful? Click my Trust link and rep me!
BTC: 1MqUxoDQE8Q88sDvoaLMbBJSMToSfPgKSy  DOGE: D61Na9wjuneAn9GFLRNrHgWHHFwVfd1T7y  LTC: 3Luo136zrqkCi53jT72FEY52GbwW1ZYi6X
ajareselde
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1708
Merit: 1000

Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin


View Profile
July 26, 2014, 08:56:44 PM
 #94



------------------------

Date: 16 Feb 2014
VWAP = 625.45
x = 1310
a = 0.006037
b = -1.82098
Rsq = 0.871816
Today's expected price = 440.0484
Predicted date for today's price = 15 Apr 2014
Days ahead = 58
Daily price rank = 84
Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 26 Jul 2014
------------------------

tl;dr:

ASSUMING the bitcoin price is growing with an exponential trend in long-term:

We expect bitcoin price to grow by about (1 - e^a) = (1 - e^0.006037) = 0.6055% per day
87.1816% (Rsq) of the variation in bitcoin price could be explained solely by time (which is very high)
The long-term "fair" price of today is only 440.0484. We are outpacing the long-term trend.
We expect to see today's price (625.45) on 15 Apr 2014, which is 58 days later
We expect to see ATH (1126) on 26 Jul 2014
Today's price is the 84th highest in the history of bitcoin

-----------------------------

Hello !

Today it is 26 Jul 2014, and NO ATH occurred..
Price of the Bitcoin,  is ~ $590 and still descending ... Undecided

And it will keep going lower, since there are more bad news than there are good ones.
But its hard to realy predict what will happen, noone expected btc to reach 1000+ mark but still out of the blue it happened.
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
July 27, 2014, 03:28:13 AM
 #95

Date:    26-Jul-2014
VWAP:    594.47
x:    1470
a:    0.00593
b:    -1.76796
Rsq:    0.90078
The day's expected price:    1035.47
Predicted date for today's price:    23-Apr-2014
Days ahead:    -93.65
Daily price rank:    156
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    14-Aug-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00592555826420775++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.7679641516586+%29   

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
rebel24
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 114
Merit: 10


View Profile
August 02, 2014, 04:17:41 PM
 #96

It's recovering, but we are still trading at 74% of the trend line, or 50 days behind it.


Hey jl2012 can you post an updated one of these charts?  Much appreciated
aminorex
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1596
Merit: 1029


Sine secretum non libertas


View Profile
August 02, 2014, 04:27:33 PM
 #97

And it will keep going lower, since there are more bad news than there are good ones.

What planet are you living on?  The news for bitcoin has been overwhelmingly bullish essentially ever since Gox went titsup in the river.

Price is low because of dumping on exchanges, which are easy to manipulate because they are thinly traded, because everyone is holding tight.

Why dump?  Two reasons:  Cheap coins from industrial mining, and suppressing price marks for contracted OTC prices.  These two factors enable large actors to enter the market without adverse price movement.

This dam will break.  It will break suddenly, and it will break massively.  The wave will be a tremendous wall, and when it passes, all our houses will be washed up on higher shores, if we do not make a shipwreck of them in all the excitement.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
August 02, 2014, 04:29:49 PM
 #98

y-axis is log(actual price/expected price). It is the worst since Jan 2013


Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
August 02, 2014, 04:31:35 PM
 #99

Date:    1-Aug-2014
VWAP:    595.68
x:    1476
a:    0.00592
b:    -1.76316
Rsq:    0.90139
The day's expected price:    1062.67
Predicted date for today's price:    25-Apr-2014
Days ahead:    -97.85
Daily price rank:    156
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    16-Aug-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00591578830553321++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.76315940207779+%29   

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
Raystonn
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364
Merit: 250


View Profile
August 03, 2014, 12:09:32 AM
 #100

There is no reliable buy signal from this plot

I see this:


I do not like the repercussions of my analysis.  May GABI and COIN stop it in its tracks.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!