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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 108773 times)
Wilhelm
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February 17, 2019, 11:52:26 PM
 #861


right now BETI is about -2.09.
About 29K at BETI=0
80K at BETI=1.0 (as the last peak).

However, this is just for today.
80K number might have no meaning (not close to any round number) in a year or two.

I so hope you are right :-)

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josegines
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February 18, 2019, 10:39:35 AM
 #862


right now BETI is about -2.09.
About 29K at BETI=0
80K at BETI=1.0 (as the last peak).

However, this is just for today.
80K number might have no meaning (not close to any round number) in a year or two.

Thanks!

but the curve is based on fixed parameters for several years? because in that case, would not it be logical to think that this curve might need a revision? How old are the parameters used to calculate the curve?

we may reach 80k, but it could happen with BETI = 2 in a new curve

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February 24, 2019, 06:21:57 AM
 #863

It seems more likely that bitcoin is on a logarithmic regression curve, like so:



For me the BETI deviation is a broken indicator. I like yours much better at this stage in Bitcoin's life. Breaking $4500 was the point that new models need to be considered.

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February 27, 2019, 09:36:50 PM
Last edit: February 28, 2019, 12:08:08 AM by thepkbadger
 #864

chart update, if anyone is interested...
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February 27, 2019, 09:49:18 PM
 #865

It is interesting to see the different points of view that the technical analysis can give us, although as I see the market today, I think it is best to wait, because we are in a phase of accumulation, and the movements that occur from bitcoin upwards, can quickly fall because everyone wants to take profit ..

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|ROULETTE
MINES
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birr
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March 05, 2019, 01:46:15 AM
 #866

The trend line looks too high.
Cassius
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April 11, 2019, 11:31:07 AM
 #867

The range is moving down via a SQRT curve of sorts - we aren't ever breaking zero again and if we touch -.5, sell everything! I like this indicator, but it should somehow evolve away from log and towards a more gradual curve. I patiently waited for another 1.5 on the last run up without realizing this.
No need to abandon the log scale.  Only needs judicious choice of curve.  SQRT it is.
I ran some numbers on the price history and fitted a square root baseline.  Vertical axis, log of dollars.



This chart shows the relation between the price and the baseline over time.




This is a great piece of work and just what I'm looking for.
I'm putting together a series of indicators and trends for a news site, www.bitcoinbulletin.org. The idea is to offer fundamental/long term price development and projects as well as short term indicators. The first category will include 200 WMA, log curve and 'expert' predictions for context; the second signals like NVT and Fear/Greed Index.
I've been particularly interested by Peterson's work on Facebook/Bitcoin network size, time and price in this paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3356098 This has proven an extremely good baseline for bitcoin's 'clean' price (i.e. non-bubble price).
@birr do you have the equation you used for that square root baseline? I've been struggling to come up with something meaningful myself.
Appreciate the work you've done on this and thanks in advance.
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April 12, 2019, 03:48:45 PM
Last edit: April 12, 2019, 04:04:48 PM by birr
 #868

@Cassius
parabola has an apex, so there's a time zero on this graph, before which price is undefined.
My latest equation has time zero as Sept 22, 2010.  That is the day that realistic price discovery began, according to this mathematical scheme.
The equation for baseline (in red on the image) is
=0.0926237*(D^0.5)-1.57846
where D is days since Sept 22, 2010

If you want to extract a square root line from historical price data, the way to do it is swap axes.  Make time a function of price, and do a quadratic regression on the data (dead easy).  Then solve the quadratic.
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April 12, 2019, 04:19:40 PM
 #869

@Cassius
parabola has an apex, so there's a time zero on this graph, before which price is undefined.
My latest equation has time zero as Sept 22, 2010.  That is the day that realistic price discovery began, according to this mathematical scheme.
The equation for baseline (in red on the image) is
=0.0926237*(D^0.5)-1.57846
where D is days since Sept 22, 2010

If you want to extract a square root line from historical price data, the way to do it is swap axes.  Make time a function of price, and do a quadratic regression on the data (dead easy).  Then solve the quadratic.

Thanks! The equation I dug out and tweaked was 0.014*2^(0.32*sqrt(t)), starting from July 2010. It's not bad but not perfect. https://imgur.com/a/9YB1q4f
Your equation is quite a lot simpler by the look of it but I'm assuming more accurate.
I don't (currently) have the maths to fine tune this except by trial and error, so I appreciate the help. Please let me known any Twitter handle etc and I'll happily credit you on the site when we've got this up and running.


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April 12, 2019, 04:24:48 PM
Last edit: April 12, 2019, 04:49:46 PM by Cassius
 #870

Relationship between chart and baseline is also very useful, so thanks again. It looks like +0.5-0.6 would be into bubble territory next time around.
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May 24, 2019, 09:49:32 PM
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 #871

Trying to revive this long-abandoned thread.

According to -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986

Current BETI score is -1.605 (quite low with lowest score of about 2.3).

Expected price (BETI=0) is at $40284

A critical level is about BETI=-1.
Every time it got to -1 (right now, about $14.8 K in my estimate), market accelerated further or much further within a few months.

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May 31, 2019, 05:04:51 AM
 #872

Trying to revive this long-abandoned thread.

According to -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986

Current BETI score is -1.605 (quite low with lowest score of about 2.3).

Expected price (BETI=0) is at $40284

A critical level is about BETI=-1.
Every time it got to -1 (right now, about $14.8 K in my estimate), market accelerated further or much further within a few months.



McAfee would have to win his public wager for BETI to be revived as a viable indicator at this point. It is holding on by a thread staying above lowest score of 2.3. I think there are better fit models than BETI at this point. Still holding out hope though.

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June 22, 2019, 05:24:43 AM
 #873

Some time ago ... I think I suggested in this tread normalising the curve for by the increase of market that the Alts represent.

Eg say the whole market cap at (t) it on the beti curve, then the bt % or that must be the actual beti value.

This may also have some sort of volume weighting as a second cut.

That is beti from day one can not really be applied to now as BTC was the whole market cap.

clearly now it is not.

Admitted Practicing Lawyer::BTC/Crypto Specialist. B.Engineering/B.Laws

https://www.binance.com/?ref=10062065
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June 26, 2019, 04:28:42 PM
Last edit: June 26, 2019, 05:37:13 PM by Biodom
 #874

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.
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June 27, 2019, 08:13:54 AM
 #875

Sometimes we are looking for a trend without any evidence for a trend other than our attempts to draw a straight line. Life ain't that simple.  Wink
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June 29, 2019, 11:17:01 PM
 #876

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

Based on past history and the smoothing of the exponential curve, I think BETI might likely top out at 0 next bull cycle. By that time, it'll be well above 44k?

When will BETI 0 = $80k, I'm curious?
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June 30, 2019, 02:03:25 AM
 #877

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

Based on past history and the smoothing of the exponential curve, I think BETI might likely top out at 0 next bull cycle. By that time, it'll be well above 44k?

When will BETI 0 = $80k, I'm curious?

I am not sure if I am calculating it correctly, but I am getting Dec 18, 2019 (for 80K at BETI=0).
Maybe +/- a day or two.
That's the power of the exponential growth.
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July 01, 2019, 10:20:24 PM
 #878

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

Based on past history and the smoothing of the exponential curve, I think BETI might likely top out at 0 next bull cycle. By that time, it'll be well above 44k?

When will BETI 0 = $80k, I'm curious?

I am not sure if I am calculating it correctly, but I am getting Dec 18, 2019 (for 80K at BETI=0).
Maybe +/- a day or two.
That's the power of the exponential growth.

Interesting. What do you get for Nov. 2020? Smiley Serious question.

(maybe we never see BETI at 0 again) Maybe -.5 instead.

I am wondering if BETI -.5 falls in the 80k-100k range somewhere between Oct. 2020 and Nov. 2021.
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