BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[600watt]

Update:

Date:    1-Feb-2015
VWAP:    221.57
x:    1660
a:    0.00534
b:    -1.46036
Rsq:    0.88793
The day's expected price:    1645.57
Actual price / expected price:   13.46%
Log(Actual price / expected price):   -2.005
VWAP to break the -2.23 all-time-low:   177.17 NEW!
VWAP to break the +1.87 all-time-high:   10653.22 NEW!
Predicted date for today's price:    21-Jan-2014
Days ahead:    -375.41
Daily price rank:    443
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00534108738429767++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.46036061998383+%29   
   

   

[img]https://i.imgur.com/cdf4bhf[/ig]

man, i start to salivate looking at this chart. soon^TM...

[1714503482]

1714503482

[afbitcoins]

Just discovered this thread, fantastic analysis.

Thought I might as well share my long term chart here too.



If the slope of the trendlines are still holding it looks like price might be at best bargain since 2010 before the first MtGox bubble! Thats only 'IF' trend holds. Interesting line to keep an eye on though. Looking forward to the next bull run!

[Biodom]

it appears that buying in $170-220 area was OK as long as the overall trend persists. However, we will be able to see that only after the fact.

[jl2012]

Just discovered this thread, fantastic analysis.

Thought I might as well share my long term chart here too.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NGW8Bhkn/

If the slope of the trendlines are still holding it looks like price might be at best bargain since 2010 before the first MtGox bubble! Thats only 'IF' trend holds. Interesting line to keep an eye on though. Looking forward to the next bull run!

My analysis is a bit different from traditional trendline analysis, as I won't use information in the future to explain the price action in the past.

[altcoin hitler]

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943674.0

[jl2012]

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943674.0

The analysis you cite is flawed for 3 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.

[insidertradingeverywhere]

^^^^^
he means looooooongterm 

[oda.krell]

The analysis you cite is flawed for 2 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.

Well, what did you expect to come from a user named "altcoin hitler", registered a week ago or so 

[Biodom]

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943674.0

The analysis you cite is flawed for 2 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.

i am not sure why the numerical coefficient in your formula keeps changing.
this change means that you simply adjust the formula to better fit the data-am I correct or is this change automatic?

[jl2012]

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943674.0

The analysis you cite is flawed for 2 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.

i am not sure why the numerical coefficient in your formula keeps changing.
this change means that you simply adjust the formula to better fit the data-am I correct or is this change automatic?

Just like any technical analysis, the estimates will (of course!) change every day with latest information.

[rpietila]

Good that you are defending the exponential model I am joining the ranks again soon after finding some time..

[ArticMine]

This model implies that we are at or close to a low comparable to that of November 2011.

[mmortal03]

This model implies that we are at or close to a low comparable to that of November 2011.

We very well may be:

[Biodom]

This model implies that we are at or close to a low comparable to that of November 2011.

IF the trend continues, then yes, but there are no guarantees.
something does not compute for me though, and that is the relentless drive down despite growth in use, etc, etc.
I have been taught by my prior investments to not buy a depreciating asset because it can go to zero or close.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943674.0

The analysis you cite is flawed for 3 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.

You can't compare the logarithmic trend line that was broken in 2011 with the one that was broken now. Sorry, but can't do.




1. Bitcoin was in its early days, a price of $2-32 was relatively low and was a easy target for penny stock pump&dumpers. Bitcoin at $2 (its marketcap) was easily pumpable. At $500-1000 or now, not at all.
2. The slope of the two trend lines is totally different. The 2011 trend line was way too optimistic and you couldn't really think that the price would have stayed above such trend line for long, whereas the current log trend line was a reasonable target and could have been easily followed assuming an exponential trend or a long term bull market.
3. The current log long term trend line that was broken is a multi-year support trend line (3 years) while the mtgox 2011 trend line was barely 1 year.
4. Bitcoin in 2011 was an obscure experiment, today is an asset known and watched by big players (even tho the majority of them are smart enough to stay clear from it apparently...), if nobody gave a fuck when price reached the trend line in 2015 after more than 1 year of bear market and it broke with a spectacular crash, it means you can wave goodbye to your long term BTCullish BTCeanies BTCitcoin scenarios.


What a lot of people here are saying is that, since in 2011 price broke a log trend line but recovered with new bubbles after that anyway despite the fact that the 2011 chart looks like a textbook penny stock pump&dump, CURRENTLY ANYTHING IN BITCOIN CAN HAPPEN AND A NEW BULL MARKET COULD BE AROUND THE CORNER NO MATTER WHAT THE CURRENT CHART IS SHOWING US.
Thinking this is just dumb in my opinion, don't you think?

[inca]

You can't compare the logarithmic trend line that was broken in 2011 with the one that was broken now. Sorry, but can't do.

1. Bitcoin was in its early days, a price of $2-32 was relatively low and was a easy target for penny stock pump&dumpers. Bitcoin at $2 was easily pumpable. At $500-1000 or now, not at all.
2. The slope of the two trend lines is totally different. The 2011 trend line was way too optimistic and you couldn't really think that the price would have stayed above such trend line for long, whereas the current log trend line was a reasonable target and could have been easily followed assuming an exponential trend or a long term bull market.
3. The current log long term trend line that was broken is a multi-year support trend line (3 years) while the mtgox 2011 trend line was barely 1 year.
4. Bitcoin in 2011 was an obscure experiment, today is an asset known and watched by big players (even tho the majority of them are smart enough to stay clear from it apparently...), if nobody gave a fuck when price reached the trend line in 2015 after more than 1 year of bear market and it broke with a spectacular crash, it means you can wave goodbye to your BTCullish BTCeanies BTCitcoin scenarios.


What a lot of people here are saying is that, since in 2011 price broke a log trend line but recovered with new bubbles after that anyway despite the fact that the 2011 chart looks like textbook penny stock pump&dump, ANYTHING IN BITCOIN CAN HAPPEN AND A NEW BULL MARKET COULD BE AROUND THE CORNER NO MATTER WHAT THE CURRENT CHART IS SHOWING US.
Thinking this is just dumb in my opinion, don't you think?

The chart didn't show you a rebound from 160 to 310 last month. Only a few days ago it was showing you the price was imminently back to 160, yet here we are levitating at 220.

Despite your bluster about the price not being 'pumpable' it takes less than 10,000 people buying monthly like me to take all mining supply at these prices. Next year it will be just 5000. Ignoring small fry like you and whales of course.

The price jumped from 160 to 310 in days, just as it moved from 275 to 480 in a heartbeat.

Anyway, you keep betting on the price dropping to zero and the rest of us will wait for you to quietly find something else to play with.

[D05GTO]

Inca.. everyone else has him on Ignore. 

[8up]

Inca.. everyone else has him on Ignore. 

True. Still, sometimes I unignore them to get a feeling how troll sentiment is changing.

[rpietila]

This model implies that we are at or close to a low comparable to that of November 2011.

Relatively the same as my original buy then. Smart guys buy now, at the low point of confidence. And don't buy too much.

To buy 10 million bits now for $2200 is actually smarter than buying one million for $5,000 soon.

[jl2012]

Date:    10-Feb-2015
VWAP:    218.61
x:    1669
a:    0.00530
b:    -1.43856
Rsq:    0.88548
The day's expected price:    1652.84
Actual price / expected price:   13.23%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -2.023
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   177.95
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   10700.26
Predicted date for today's price:    24-Jan-2014
Days ahead:    -381.55
Daily price rank:    453
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00530186245924665++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.4385580304569+%29