Bitcoin Forum
October 23, 2019, 11:44:21 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.1 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 »
  Print  
Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 107523 times)
600watt
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2030
Merit: 1316



View Profile
February 02, 2015, 10:52:31 AM
 #181

Update:

Date:    1-Feb-2015
VWAP:    221.57
x:    1660
a:    0.00534
b:    -1.46036
Rsq:    0.88793
The day's expected price:    1645.57
Actual price / expected price:   13.46%
Log(Actual price / expected price):   -2.005
VWAP to break the -2.23 all-time-low:   177.17 NEW!
VWAP to break the +1.87 all-time-high:   10653.22 NEW!
Predicted date for today's price:    21-Jan-2014
Days ahead:    -375.41
Daily price rank:    443
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00534108738429767++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.46036061998383+%29   
   

   

[img]http://i.imgur.com/cdf4bhf[/ig]

man, i start to salivate looking at this chart. soonTM...
1571831061
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1571831061

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1571831061
Reply with quote  #2

1571831061
Report to moderator
1571831061
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1571831061

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1571831061
Reply with quote  #2

1571831061
Report to moderator
The Bitcoin Forum is turning 10 years old! Join the community in sharing and exploring the notable posts made over the years.
afbitcoins
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1934
Merit: 1032



View Profile WWW
February 03, 2015, 12:25:41 PM
 #182

Just discovered this thread, fantastic analysis.

Thought I might as well share my long term chart here too.



If the slope of the trendlines are still holding it looks like price might be at best bargain since 2010 before the first MtGox bubble! Thats only 'IF' trend holds. Interesting line to keep an eye on though. Looking forward to the next bull run!

Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2100
Merit: 1305



View Profile
February 03, 2015, 04:19:51 PM
 #183

it appears that buying in $170-220 area was OK as long as the overall trend persists. However, we will be able to see that only after the fact.

jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
February 03, 2015, 04:53:17 PM
 #184

Just discovered this thread, fantastic analysis.

Thought I might as well share my long term chart here too.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NGW8Bhkn/

If the slope of the trendlines are still holding it looks like price might be at best bargain since 2010 before the first MtGox bubble! Thats only 'IF' trend holds. Interesting line to keep an eye on though. Looking forward to the next bull run!



My analysis is a bit different from traditional trendline analysis, as I won't use information in the future to explain the price action in the past.

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
altcoin hitler
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 84
Merit: 10


View Profile
February 03, 2015, 06:24:49 PM
 #185

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943674.0

King of the real Bitcoin Foundation https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934517.0
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
February 04, 2015, 03:41:24 AM
Last edit: February 06, 2015, 06:55:42 AM by jl2012
 #186

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943674.0

The analysis you cite is flawed for 3 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
insidertradingeverywhere
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 453
Merit: 100



View Profile
February 04, 2015, 08:52:00 AM
 #187

^^^^^
he means looooooongterm  Cheesy

  ▬▬[  Tlsgroup.io  ]▬▬[Cryptocurrency Investment Fund]▬ 
▌ Cryptocurrency Mining Infrastructure ▐
▬▬| Twitter  | Telegram  | Linkedin  | Instagram   | Facebook| ▬▬
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
February 04, 2015, 10:43:45 AM
 #188


The analysis you cite is flawed for 2 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.

Well, what did you expect to come from a user named "altcoin hitler", registered a week ago or so  Roll Eyes

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2100
Merit: 1305



View Profile
February 04, 2015, 04:09:14 PM
 #189

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943674.0

The analysis you cite is flawed for 2 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.

i am not sure why the numerical coefficient in your formula keeps changing.
this change means that you simply adjust the formula to better fit the data-am I correct or is this change automatic?
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
February 04, 2015, 04:59:59 PM
 #190

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943674.0

The analysis you cite is flawed for 2 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.

i am not sure why the numerical coefficient in your formula keeps changing.
this change means that you simply adjust the formula to better fit the data-am I correct or is this change automatic?

Just like any technical analysis, the estimates will (of course!) change every day with latest information.

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652
Merit: 1005



View Profile
February 06, 2015, 05:35:06 AM
 #191

Good that you are defending the exponential model Smiley I am joining the ranks again soon after finding some time..
ArticMine
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2268
Merit: 1041


Monero Core Team


View Profile
February 06, 2015, 10:08:44 AM
 #192

This model implies that we are at or close to a low comparable to that of November 2011.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
mmortal03
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1752
Merit: 1005


View Profile
February 06, 2015, 03:26:40 PM
 #193

This model implies that we are at or close to a low comparable to that of November 2011.

We very well may be:

Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2100
Merit: 1305



View Profile
February 06, 2015, 05:04:52 PM
 #194

This model implies that we are at or close to a low comparable to that of November 2011.

IF the trend continues, then yes, but there are no guarantees.
something does not compute for me though, and that is the relentless drive down despite growth in use, etc, etc.
I have been taught by my prior investments to not buy a depreciating asset because it can go to zero or close.
NotHatinJustTrollin
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196
Merit: 100


DATABLOCKCHAIN.IO SALE IS LIVE | MVP @ DBC.IO


View Profile
February 06, 2015, 05:47:04 PM
Last edit: February 06, 2015, 06:00:28 PM by NotHatinJustTrollin
 #195

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943674.0

The analysis you cite is flawed for 3 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.
You can't compare the logarithmic trend line that was broken in 2011 with the one that was broken now. Sorry, but can't do.




1. Bitcoin was in its early days, a price of $2-32 was relatively low and was a easy target for penny stock pump&dumpers. Bitcoin at $2 (its marketcap) was easily pumpable. At $500-1000 or now, not at all.
2. The slope of the two trend lines is totally different. The 2011 trend line was way too optimistic and you couldn't really think that the price would have stayed above such trend line for long, whereas the current log trend line was a reasonable target and could have been easily followed assuming an exponential trend or a long term bull market.
3. The current log long term trend line that was broken is a multi-year support trend line (3 years) while the mtgox 2011 trend line was barely 1 year.
4. Bitcoin in 2011 was an obscure experiment, today is an asset known and watched by big players (even tho the majority of them are smart enough to stay clear from it apparently...), if nobody gave a fuck when price reached the trend line in 2015 after more than 1 year of bear market and it broke with a spectacular crash, it means you can wave goodbye to your long term BTCullish BTCeanies BTCitcoin scenarios.


What a lot of people here are saying is that, since in 2011 price broke a log trend line but recovered with new bubbles after that anyway despite the fact that the 2011 chart looks like a textbook penny stock pump&dump, CURRENTLY ANYTHING IN BITCOIN CAN HAPPEN AND A NEW BULL MARKET COULD BE AROUND THE CORNER NO MATTER WHAT THE CURRENT CHART IS SHOWING US.
Thinking this is just dumb in my opinion, don't you think?

inca
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 1000


View Profile
February 06, 2015, 06:05:46 PM
 #196


You can't compare the logarithmic trend line that was broken in 2011 with the one that was broken now. Sorry, but can't do.

1. Bitcoin was in its early days, a price of $2-32 was relatively low and was a easy target for penny stock pump&dumpers. Bitcoin at $2 was easily pumpable. At $500-1000 or now, not at all.
2. The slope of the two trend lines is totally different. The 2011 trend line was way too optimistic and you couldn't really think that the price would have stayed above such trend line for long, whereas the current log trend line was a reasonable target and could have been easily followed assuming an exponential trend or a long term bull market.
3. The current log long term trend line that was broken is a multi-year support trend line (3 years) while the mtgox 2011 trend line was barely 1 year.
4. Bitcoin in 2011 was an obscure experiment, today is an asset known and watched by big players (even tho the majority of them are smart enough to stay clear from it apparently...), if nobody gave a fuck when price reached the trend line in 2015 after more than 1 year of bear market and it broke with a spectacular crash, it means you can wave goodbye to your BTCullish BTCeanies BTCitcoin scenarios.


What a lot of people here are saying is that, since in 2011 price broke a log trend line but recovered with new bubbles after that anyway despite the fact that the 2011 chart looks like textbook penny stock pump&dump, ANYTHING IN BITCOIN CAN HAPPEN AND A NEW BULL MARKET COULD BE AROUND THE CORNER NO MATTER WHAT THE CURRENT CHART IS SHOWING US.
Thinking this is just dumb in my opinion, don't you think?

The chart didn't show you a rebound from 160 to 310 last month. Only a few days ago it was showing you the price was imminently back to 160, yet here we are levitating at 220.

Despite your bluster about the price not being 'pumpable' it takes less than 10,000 people buying monthly like me to take all mining supply at these prices. Next year it will be just 5000. Ignoring small fry like you and whales of course.

The price jumped from 160 to 310 in days, just as it moved from 275 to 480 in a heartbeat.

Anyway, you keep betting on the price dropping to zero and the rest of us will wait for you to quietly find something else to play with.




D05GTO
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250


View Profile
February 06, 2015, 06:13:07 PM
 #197

Inca.. everyone else has him on Ignore.  Cheesy


 
 
           ▄████▄
         ▄████████▄
       ▄████████████▄
     ▄████████████████▄
    ████████████████████      ▄█▄                 ▄███▄                 ▄███▄                 ▄████████████████▀   ▄██████████

  ▄▄▄▀█████▀▄▄▄▄▀█████▀▄▄▄     ▀██▄             ▄██▀ ▀██▄             ▄██▀ ▀██▄             ▄██▀                   ██
▄█████▄▀▀▀▄██████▄▀▀▀▄█████▄     ▀██▄         ▄██▀     ▀██▄         ▄██▀     ▀██▄         ▄██▀        ▄█▄          ▀██████████████▄
████████████████████████████       ▀██▄     ▄██▀         ▀██▄     ▄██▀         ▀██▄     ▄██▀          ▀█▀                        ██
 ▀████████████████████████▀          ▀██▄ ▄██▀             ▀██▄ ▄██▀     ▄█▄     ▀██▄ ▄██▀                                       ██
   ▀████████████████████▀              ▀███▀                 ▀███▀       ▀█▀       ▀███▀      ▄███████████████████████████████████▀
     ▀████████████████▀
       ▀████████████▀
         ▀████████▀
           ▀████▀
║║


║║
.
.

║║
██
║║
.
.

║║
██
║║
.
║║


║║
8up
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 618
Merit: 500



View Profile
February 06, 2015, 06:24:24 PM
 #198

Inca.. everyone else has him on Ignore.  Cheesy

True. Still, sometimes I unignore them to get a feeling how troll sentiment is changing. Wink

Always wrong until not.
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652
Merit: 1005



View Profile
February 11, 2015, 09:38:23 AM
 #199

This model implies that we are at or close to a low comparable to that of November 2011.

Relatively the same as my original buy then. Smart guys buy now, at the low point of confidence. And don't buy too much.

To buy 10 million bits now for $2200 is actually smarter than buying one million for $5,000 soon.
jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 1010


View Profile
February 11, 2015, 02:46:37 PM
 #200

Date:    10-Feb-2015
VWAP:    218.61
x:    1669
a:    0.00530
b:    -1.43856
Rsq:    0.88548
The day's expected price:    1652.84
Actual price / expected price:   13.23%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -2.023
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   177.95
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   10700.26
Predicted date for today's price:    24-Jan-2014
Days ahead:    -381.55
Daily price rank:    453
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00530186245924665++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.4385580304569+%29   

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY)
LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC)
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!