BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[--DarkSecrets--]

BETI touched zero I think or close to it, I think we need a stronger bounce to avoid the bear. I am looking for strong push above 14500 before i think we are going to ath any time soon.

The low was more than 1000$ above the BETI expected price.

The BETI is so accurate for me. True enough, we really felt the decrease and increase of value.hoping that BETI of 1st quarter of 2018 will be better.

[1714506295]

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[redmeat]

any updates?

[DieJohnny]

any updates?

beti zero coming, then  2.0

[Biodom]

any updates?

beti zero coming, then  2.0

many people think similarly
Not sure if it means it's more or less likely, but it could be like in 2013, if it happens.

[btcone111]

We're touching BETI 0:

Finally...... i thought it would never happen and have bought back some at BETI 1.3, guess i was too early!!!!

[jl2012]

Data points:   2750
BETI ATL   -2.229
BETI ATH   1.868
   
Date:   1-Feb-2018
BETI:   0.079
VWAP:   9222.28
x:   2,756
a:   0.003332
b:   -0.133658
Rsq:   0.844221
Expected price:   8524.02
Actual price / expected price:   108.19%
BETI ATL price:   917.71
BETI ATH price:   55183.37
Expected date:   24-Feb-2018
# of days ahead:   23.63
Daily VWAP rank:   67
Next expected price:   8552.48
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00333247535531788++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.133658310144118+)
   
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00333247535531788++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.133658310144118+)
   
   
-1.00   3135.81
-0.75   4026.46
-0.50   5170.08
-0.25   6638.52
0.00   8524.02
0.25   10945.06
0.50   14053.74
0.75   18045.36
1.00   23170.70
1.25   29751.77
1.50   38202.02
1.75   49052.37
2.00   62984.49
2.25   80873.68
2.50   103843.87

[jl2012]

[criptix]

yeah looks as we will go negative (or already were 7500 7800 low).

[Biodom]

yeah looks as we will go negative (or already were 7500 low).

he uses daily average price (VWAP), so it does not matter much where the low was.
polo shows 7900, not sure where 7500 was ( I wasn't there )
Average for today might be 8500-8600 or something which is almost precisely zero.

[criptix]

yeah looks as we will go negative (or already were 7500 low).

he uses daily average price (VWAP), so it does not matter much where the low was.
polo shows 7900, not sure where 7500 was ( I wasn't there )
Average for today might be 8500-8600 or something which is almost precisely zero.

Yes you are correct - the low was a bit less then 7800 (i was only watching the cmc graph after waking up).

Regarding the VWAP and BETI if we use the past numbers then 7800 would be in the negative BETI area!

[jl2012]

Data points:   2751
BETI ATL   -2.229
BETI ATH   1.868
   
Date:   2-Feb-2018
BETI:   -0.017
VWAP:   8409.31
x:   2,757
a:   0.003332
b:   -0.133646
Rsq:   0.844363
Expected price:   8552.27
Actual price / expected price:   98.33%
BETI ATL price:   920.76
BETI ATH price:   55366.22
Expected date:   27-Jan-2018
# of days ahead:   -5.06
Daily VWAP rank:   69
Next expected price:   8580.82
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00333246202503819++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.133646037590367+)
   
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00333246202503819++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.133646037590367+)
   
   
   
-2.25   901.40
-2.00   1157.42
-1.75   1486.16
-1.50   1908.27
-1.25   2450.27
-1.00   3146.20
-0.75   4039.81
-0.50   5187.21
-0.25   6660.51
0.00   8552.27
0.25   10981.33
0.50   14100.31
0.75   18105.15
1.00   23247.47
1.25   29850.35
1.50   38328.61
1.75   49214.90
2.00   63193.19

[AR_fan]

what if its the whole crypto currency market that counts for BETI nowadays? alts are taking a way bigger marketshare than previous bubbles.

[d57heinz]

what if its the whole crypto currency market that counts for BETI nowadays? alts are taking a way bigger marketshare than previous bubbles.

I tend to wonder this as well. I could see this being more accurate if bitcoin held closer to 100% market share.  Any thoughts to this?

BR

[vit05]

 $ 8658 but the price right now is $6215

This is unexpected. We are again well below the price and far from what could be considered a bubble by following the parameters. I imagine that we will have a great rise at some point to stay close to the values that are expected.

[john803]

a:   0.003332
b:   -0.133646

jl2012

thank you for the intriguing thread. 

i think people should consider the worst case black swan BETI -2.0  and not always look for BETI +2.0.

just the post above me by user vit05 shows people only look at expected gains but not expected losses.



i have the same question mararn1618 asked about daily values for a and b.

i tried modeling my own table in excel of prior dates and BETI values, before i also realized i was using your static regression parameters.

i see that a = slope; b = intercept, but don't quite follow what i am to do.

what is the formula that i can compute a and b daily myself for any given date?

or would be willing to share a table of historical a and b values?

thank you.

[Biodom]

Real time BETI is hovering around zero.

I posit that this time we might have something similar to the 2011 "bubble" rather than 2013 as in:
shallower peak (peaked at BETI about 1.0), down to around zero, up to around BETI 0.5, down to around BETI -0.5, then an absolute rip to BETI above 1.5, maybe even ATH above 1.87.

see graph here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26855063#msg26855063

The approximate numbers are difficult to determine because they adjust in time, but based off of Feb 3 numbers:

BETI 0 is currently approx 9152 (from the real time wolfram graph)
BETI 0.5 would be probably about $15000 (a short term target)
BETI -0.5 would be about 5600-6000 (basically, a double bottom)
BETI 1.87 would be about 60,000

All numbers will trend upwards as time progresses, so numbers have to be adjusted depending on how much time it takes.
In 2011, down to the first bottom it took about 1.5 mo, which fits well in 2018, then meandering for a bit with a second intermediary top in about 2.5 mo after the bottom; this places the local peak at about mid-late April 2018, then sharp down for about two mo until mid-late June 2018, then the major rip up for about 3mo until the end of September in this scenario.

It is possible that timeframes would stretch, but I consider the whole scenario of a double dip with about 15K (plus minus a thou or two) intermediate top quite likely.

Whether the longer term top would be in September or in Nov-Dec (more likely) remains to be seen.

[vit05]

$ 8658 but the price right now is $6215

This is unexpected. We are again well below the price and far from what could be considered a bubble by following the parameters. I imagine that we will have a great rise at some point to stay close to the values that are expected.

So sad that I didn't have the money to invest more on this day. But as the graphic shows, anything between 9k and 12k should be great for buying if you invest thinking in only use after October.

[Syke]

It's good to be back in positive territory. Let's keep it up.

[bitserve]

According to the realtime page BETI expected price for today is: 9815

So we are at -0.1749 BETI.

Would love to see price over 0 BETI sometime soon... maybe when it is already at $10K+.

[vit05]

Result: 10161
Bitfinex: 8439

I believe the trend is low. Even with BET at a much higher value. Low volume and market uncertainties are high. I was imagining that the Asian market would wake up pulling the value further down breaking the 7k.