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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 107197 times)
jl2012
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July 12, 2015, 05:42:43 AM
 #241


What is a +2 in price today?Huh how do i figure this out myself?

Expected price (1780.87) * (2.718 ^ 2) = 13159

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July 18, 2015, 05:35:11 PM
 #242

Date:    17-Jul-2015
VWAP:    276.71
x:    1826
a:    0.00470
b:    -1.08523
Rsq:    0.84783
The day's expected price:    1788.28
Actual price / expected price:   15.47%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.866
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   192.53
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11577.06
Predicted date for today's price:    14-Jun-2014
Days ahead:    -397.39
Daily price rank:    443
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   


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July 18, 2015, 05:38:54 PM
 #243


We finally left the -1.90 to -1.95 area. -1.875 ($273) is the support. -1.90 ($266) should become a major support.

Major resistance is still -1.75 ($309). Then the next mark is -1.50 ($397)


so it reached -1.76 ($306.75) before went down. Support is still -1.875 ($274)

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August 14, 2015, 11:16:26 AM
 #244

Any update from July?

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September 25, 2015, 02:10:00 PM
 #245

bumpidy bump?


Its been a pretty brutal bear, but steady for about 9 months. It really looks like we hit the bottom, which means the only way is up.
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September 26, 2015, 04:34:38 PM
 #246

Update

Date:    25-Sep-2015
VWAP:    235.19
x:    1896
a:    0.00445
b:    -0.93522
Rsq:    0.83148
The day's expected price:    1826.21
Actual price / expected price:   12.88%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -2.050
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   196.61
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11822.63
Predicted date for today's price:    21-Jun-2014
Days ahead:    -460.15
Daily price rank:    590
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00445422677024799++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.935216011303706+%29   
   

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September 26, 2015, 04:37:33 PM
 #247



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September 26, 2015, 04:39:28 PM
 #248

It is a triple top at -1.75, now at $317

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September 27, 2015, 02:25:52 AM
 #249

If
a) The pattern is same as in 2011,
b) But 4 times slower,
We will must have rally pretty soon. Rough estimate: half-year-long rally to -1, i.e. to about 1500$ per BTC.




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September 27, 2015, 02:35:09 AM
 #250

If
a) The pattern is same as in 2011,
b) But 4 times slower,
We will must have rally pretty soon. Rough estimate: half-year-long rally to -1, i.e. to about 1500$ per BTC.

snip image



A very interesting prediction. It would be interesting to see how it plays out.
Overall, i am very puzzled by a flat.
I would have never guessed it instead of rising or plunging.
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September 27, 2015, 05:26:26 PM
 #251


Rough estimate: half-year-long rally to -1, i.e. to about 1500$ per BTC.


No. -1 is e^-1 * 1826.21 = 672

Possible if there are positive outcomes after the Scaling Bitcoin workshop in coming December

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September 29, 2015, 06:46:16 AM
Last edit: September 29, 2015, 07:01:33 AM by Wary
 #252


Rough estimate: half-year-long rally to -1, i.e. to about 1500$ per BTC.


No. -1 is e^-1 * 1826.21 = 672

Possible if there are positive outcomes after the Scaling Bitcoin workshop in coming December
No. Smiley 1826.21 is today's expected price. While we are talking about half-year later.

EDIT: i.e. 672 * e^(0.00445*(365/2))
P.S. I'd also like to thank you for your job. This is my favorite thread and I'm always in anticipation of fresh updates.

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
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September 29, 2015, 07:27:35 AM
 #253

Starting from today, I will offer a regularly update of the bitcoin long-term exponential trend. Please consider to donate if you like this service

Method:

Data source: bitcoincharts.com daily volume weighted average price (VWAP)

Reference exchange:
  17 Jul 2010 to 18 Jun 2013: MtGox
  19 Jun 2013 to now: Bitstamp

Dates omitted:
  20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox closed)
  6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp closed)

Regression model:
  y = ax + b,
  where y = natural logarithm of VWAP; x = days since MtGox inception, 17 Jul 2010 = 0; a = slope; b = intercept

Glossary:
  Rsq: R-square value of the regression model
  Today's expected price: The expected price of today based on the regression model
  Predicted date for today's price: The expected date for today's price based on the regression model
  Days ahead (behind): The difference between today and the predicted date for today's price. A positive value indicates we are currently above the regression and vice versa
  Daily price rank: The rank of today's VWAP among all historical VWAP. 1 means the all-time-high VWAP

------------------------

Date: 16 Feb 2014
VWAP = 625.45
x = 1310
a = 0.006037
b = -1.82098
Rsq = 0.871816
Today's expected price = 440.0484
Predicted date for today's price = 15 Apr 2014
Days ahead = 58
Daily price rank = 84
Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 26 Jul 2014
------------------------

tl;dr:

ASSUMING the bitcoin price is growing with an exponential trend in long-term:

We expect bitcoin price to grow by about (1 - e^a) = (1 - e^0.006037) = 0.6055% per day
87.1816% (Rsq) of the variation in bitcoin price could be explained solely by time (which is very high)
The long-term "fair" price of today is only 440.0484. We are outpacing the long-term trend.
We expect to see today's price (625.45) on 15 Apr 2014, which is 58 days later
We expect to see ATH (1126) on 26 Jul 2014
Today's price is the 84th highest in the history of bitcoin

-----------------------------



y-axis is ln(price)
Blue line is the daily VWAP
Red line is the expected price of the day. For each day, a regression is fitted with all data of and before that day, so it is not a straight line.
Green line is the current regression line

Btc is getting popular in time not just here in the country but also outside because as much as I observe many people have heard many good things about it and began buying and saving coins. 
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October 17, 2015, 01:57:53 PM
 #254

Date:    16-Oct-2015
VWAP:    261.01
x:    1917
a:    0.00438
b:    -0.89040
Rsq:    0.82640
The day's expected price:    1832.34
Actual price / expected price:   14.24%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.949
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   197.27
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11862.31
Predicted date for today's price:    28-Jul-2014
Days ahead:    -444.54
Daily price rank:    493
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00438380164234256++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.890399126164971+%29   

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October 17, 2015, 02:00:08 PM
 #255


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October 17, 2015, 02:02:05 PM
 #256


Rough estimate: half-year-long rally to -1, i.e. to about 1500$ per BTC.


No. -1 is e^-1 * 1826.21 = 672

Possible if there are positive outcomes after the Scaling Bitcoin workshop in coming December
No. Smiley 1826.21 is today's expected price. While we are talking about half-year later.

EDIT: i.e. 672 * e^(0.00445*(365/2))
P.S. I'd also like to thank you for your job. This is my favorite thread and I'm always in anticipation of fresh updates.

It will be lower than $1500 since the slope is dropping every day.

I will update more frequently when the price is moving

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October 17, 2015, 02:56:45 PM
 #257

So... what is the price expected for you system? (for today) Is should be higher?
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October 17, 2015, 05:06:51 PM
 #258

So... what is the price expected for you system? (for today) Is should be higher?

$1832.34

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October 26, 2015, 03:05:06 AM
 #259

Date:    25-Oct-2015
VWAP:    289.30
x:    1926
a:    0.00436
b:    -0.87240
Rsq:    0.82459
The day's expected price:    1838.59
Actual price / expected price:   15.74%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.849
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   197.95
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11902.78
Predicted date for today's price:    26-Aug-2014
Days ahead:    -424.56
Daily price rank:    437
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.0043557396821397++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.872400133608698+%29   

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October 26, 2015, 03:07:06 AM
 #260

Since last update, it grew from -1.95 to -1.85. The -1.75 resistance is now at about $320


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