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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 107523 times)
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October 26, 2015, 03:42:02 AM
 #261

What happened to the longer term charts? We're still a ways down in the long term. Are people now calling for a triple bottom then up? Wink


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October 29, 2015, 12:00:27 PM
 #262

Since last update, it grew from -1.95 to -1.85. The -1.75 resistance is now at about $320

It hits 310 and is approaching the major resistance of -1.75

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October 29, 2015, 01:05:14 PM
 #263

If we break that, things will get wild.
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October 29, 2015, 04:11:33 PM
 #264

Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley
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October 29, 2015, 06:29:02 PM
 #265

Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?
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October 29, 2015, 06:31:19 PM
 #266

Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?
130$ lol
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October 29, 2015, 06:31:24 PM
 #267

What happened to the longer term charts? We're still a ways down in the long term. Are people now calling for a triple bottom then up? Wink




I hope this chart still holds true, but i have my doubts.

according to that chart we SHOULD be around $10000 or so right now if i'm not mistaken, and if the pattern in that chart holds true the next bubble could take us up to something like $30000
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October 29, 2015, 06:41:03 PM
 #268

Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.
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October 29, 2015, 06:45:10 PM
 #269

If
a) The pattern is same as in 2011,
b) But 4 times slower,
We will must have rally pretty soon. Rough estimate: half-year-long rally to -1, i.e. to about 1500$ per BTC.





interesting find, let's see if this holds true, if it does, i assume next target would be -0.5 (probably around $5000 when that happens)  and 1.5 (probably about $50000 when that happens, yikes) after that?

Or do you think the pattern breaks off there?

If so, why?

 
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October 29, 2015, 06:51:01 PM
 #270

Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.


To be honest I am not really interested in increasing my fiat position, i'm more interested in increasing my bitcoin position, therefore, selling and buying back at the right moment is crucial. Of course I know i can never get the absolute top and absolute bottom, but trying to get at least a reasonable gain for the risk

I just don't trust the dollar and euro (or the financial system as a whole) enough to rely on it. The vast majority of my money is in bitcoin, another part is in silver, and only a fraction is in fiat.

Risky? Maybe, but I consider the risk of leaving it in fiat to be much higher.

I will take your advice, and even 1/2 seems reasonable enough. It might not be optimal, but at least it's a large profit and a moderate risk.     

Of course I will not sell when I anticipate another bubble, such as now.

Thanks for your insight.
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October 30, 2015, 12:15:21 AM
 #271

Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.


To be honest I am not really interested in increasing my fiat position, i'm more interested in increasing my bitcoin position, therefore, selling and buying back at the right moment is crucial. Of course I know i can never get the absolute top and absolute bottom, but trying to get at least a reasonable gain for the risk

I just don't trust the dollar and euro (or the financial system as a whole) enough to rely on it. The vast majority of my money is in bitcoin, another part is in silver, and only a fraction is in fiat.

Risky? Maybe, but I consider the risk of leaving it in fiat to be much higher.

I will take your advice, and even 1/2 seems reasonable enough. It might not be optimal, but at least it's a large profit and a moderate risk.      

Of course I will not sell when I anticipate another bubble, such as now.

Thanks for your insight.

There may be a "bubble" to $800 or $1500, but if this exponential trend is accurate and we retest old highs, then we could very well be going for $10,000 per bitcoin within the next two years.

We all want to maximize gains, but honestly, we're all probably better off following SSS. None of us will perfectly buy and sell all the way to $10,000.

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October 30, 2015, 12:19:39 AM
 #272

Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.


To be honest I am not really interested in increasing my fiat position, i'm more interested in increasing my bitcoin position, therefore, selling and buying back at the right moment is crucial. Of course I know i can never get the absolute top and absolute bottom, but trying to get at least a reasonable gain for the risk

I just don't trust the dollar and euro (or the financial system as a whole) enough to rely on it. The vast majority of my money is in bitcoin, another part is in silver, and only a fraction is in fiat.

Risky? Maybe, but I consider the risk of leaving it in fiat to be much higher.

I will take your advice, and even 1/2 seems reasonable enough. It might not be optimal, but at least it's a large profit and a moderate risk.      

Of course I will not sell when I anticipate another bubble, such as now.

Thanks for your insight.

There may be a "bubble" to $800 or $1500, but if this exponential trend is accurate and we retest old highs, then we could very well be going for $10,000 per bitcoin within the next two years.

We all want to maximize gains, but honestly, we're all probably better off following SSS. None of us will perfectly buy and sell all the way to $10,000.

You don't sell to buy and hold fiat, you sell to buy income producing assets. That is the key, target your SSS strategy so that by the time you've sold half of your BTC, you have been able to buy enough income to live on. You still get to enjoy the ride up if it continues, but also have established security.
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October 30, 2015, 12:25:06 AM
 #273

Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.


To be honest I am not really interested in increasing my fiat position, i'm more interested in increasing my bitcoin position, therefore, selling and buying back at the right moment is crucial. Of course I know i can never get the absolute top and absolute bottom, but trying to get at least a reasonable gain for the risk

I just don't trust the dollar and euro (or the financial system as a whole) enough to rely on it. The vast majority of my money is in bitcoin, another part is in silver, and only a fraction is in fiat.

Risky? Maybe, but I consider the risk of leaving it in fiat to be much higher.

I will take your advice, and even 1/2 seems reasonable enough. It might not be optimal, but at least it's a large profit and a moderate risk.      

Of course I will not sell when I anticipate another bubble, such as now.

Thanks for your insight.

There may be a "bubble" to $800 or $1500, but if this exponential trend is accurate and we retest old highs, then we could very well be going for $10,000 per bitcoin within the next two years.

We all want to maximize gains, but honestly, we're all probably better off following SSS. None of us will perfectly buy and sell all the way to $10,000.

You don't sell to buy and hold fiat, you sell to buy income producing assets. That is the key, target your SSS strategy so that by the time you've sold half of your BTC, you have been able to buy enough income to live on. You still get to enjoy the ride up if it continues, but also have established security.

Expecting/imaginating 10 000$, that is so ludicrous. Dont get me wrong, that would be amazing, but i can't imagine a market cap of 150 billions of dollars anytime soon. That would be so much power, this would be catastrophic. Governments would panics.

Economic power is like Technology, if it goes up too fast, other things crash.
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October 30, 2015, 12:39:38 AM
 #274

Expecting/imaginating 10 000$, that is so ludicrous. Dont get me wrong, that would be amazing, but i can't imagine a market cap of 150 billions of dollars anytime soon. That would be so much power, this would be catastrophic. Governments would panics.

Economic power is like Technology, if it goes up too fast, other things crash.

I'm not expecting $10,000. I'm just saying that it's within the realm of possibility based on the trendline:

Quote
Date:    25-Oct-2015
VWAP:    289.30
x:    1926
a:    0.00436
b:    -0.87240
Rsq:    0.82459
The day's expected price:    1838.59
Actual price / expected price:   15.74%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.849
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   197.95
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11902.78
Predicted date for today's price:    26-Aug-2014
Days ahead:    -424.56
Daily price rank:    437

Hitting $10,000 wouldn't even be be making a new high. It is totally feasible.


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October 30, 2015, 12:49:26 AM
 #275

Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.


To be honest I am not really interested in increasing my fiat position, i'm more interested in increasing my bitcoin position, therefore, selling and buying back at the right moment is crucial. Of course I know i can never get the absolute top and absolute bottom, but trying to get at least a reasonable gain for the risk

I just don't trust the dollar and euro (or the financial system as a whole) enough to rely on it. The vast majority of my money is in bitcoin, another part is in silver, and only a fraction is in fiat.

Risky? Maybe, but I consider the risk of leaving it in fiat to be much higher.

I will take your advice, and even 1/2 seems reasonable enough. It might not be optimal, but at least it's a large profit and a moderate risk.      

Of course I will not sell when I anticipate another bubble, such as now.

Thanks for your insight.

There may be a "bubble" to $800 or $1500, but if this exponential trend is accurate and we retest old highs, then we could very well be going for $10,000 per bitcoin within the next two years.

We all want to maximize gains, but honestly, we're all probably better off following SSS. None of us will perfectly buy and sell all the way to $10,000.

You don't sell to buy and hold fiat, you sell to buy income producing assets. That is the key, target your SSS strategy so that by the time you've sold half of your BTC, you have been able to buy enough income to live on. You still get to enjoy the ride up if it continues, but also have established security.

What would be the minimum $ required to invest in "income producing assets"?

What assets would be good to invest in?

How would you even start investing in those assets, as someone who is young and has never invested in anything but bitcoin before?

How do i protect myself from financial collapse with those assets, in case the dollar/euro/financial system breaks down? (Other than the % of money still in bitcoin that isn't divested?).
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October 30, 2015, 01:32:40 AM
Last edit: October 30, 2015, 01:42:45 AM by jehst
 #276

What assets would be good to invest in?

How would you even start investing in those assets, as someone who is young and has never invested in anything but bitcoin before?


He's talking about stuff like owning rental properties in highly desirable areas. Or owning prime farmland and leasing it to farmers. These are things that are going to produce steady income every month with low risk. If you get to the point where you have so much money that earning 10% per year sounds great, then that's a great idea. (But most people on these forums are crumb-bum adrenaline junkies looking for 10x gains on their four or five digit bankroll.)

How do you start investing in those assets? Buy a real estate book or a book on farmland leases. This stuff can be pretty hands-off if you give a slice of the money to middlemen agents who manage the assets for you.

If there's a financial collapse, people still need to live somewhere and eat, right? So if you own housing, food-producing assets, some skills, and some unseizable crypto, then you're as protected as you're going to get.  

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October 30, 2015, 08:37:44 AM
 #277

What assets would be good to invest in?

How would you even start investing in those assets, as someone who is young and has never invested in anything but bitcoin before?


He's talking about stuff like owning rental properties in highly desirable areas. Or owning prime farmland and leasing it to farmers. These are things that are going to produce steady income every month with low risk. If you get to the point where you have so much money that earning 10% per year sounds great, then that's a great idea. (But most people on these forums are crumb-bum adrenaline junkies looking for 10x gains on their four or five digit bankroll.)

How do you start investing in those assets? Buy a real estate book or a book on farmland leases. This stuff can be pretty hands-off if you give a slice of the money to middlemen agents who manage the assets for you.

If there's a financial collapse, people still need to live somewhere and eat, right? So if you own housing, food-producing assets, some skills, and some unseizable crypto, then you're as protected as you're going to get.  

Slightly off-topic but what other income generating assets do you recommend? Rental houses and farmland both fall under land property and can easily be taxed to hell and back in times of a financial crisis.

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October 30, 2015, 08:56:12 AM
 #278

What assets would be good to invest in?

He's talking about stuff like owning rental properties in highly desirable areas. So if you own housing, food-producing assets, some skills, and some unseizable crypto, then you're as protected as you're going to get.  

Slightly off-topic but what other income generating assets do you recommend? Rental houses and farmland both fall under land property and can easily be taxed to hell and back in times of a financial crisis.

The assets you actually own (can hold/hide) never generate income, with the exception of skills.

In financial crisis, land is usually taken from those who cannot pay, so not from you who are prepared.

In war, land may be taken from you. So since this is a fear, land is cheap and war is a good time to buy land while understanding risks.

You cannot go to the crisis with income-producing assets only, because the crisis may anyway retain them unproductive. Crisis buffer should be liquid holder assets such as gold, silver and crypto.

Sell all financial assets where the "system" is the counterparty. Since there is no way for them to make good of their promises, they will probably screw you.

When there is a stock market crash and recovery, it may be a sign that the crisis has reached the turning point. But today's markets are manipulated to the core, and inflation is running rampant. average P/E= 7 or P/B = 1 are reasonable (currently both 5x higher).
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October 30, 2015, 12:58:18 PM
 #279

What assets would be good to invest in?

How would you even start investing in those assets, as someone who is young and has never invested in anything but bitcoin before?


He's talking about stuff like owning rental properties in highly desirable areas. Or owning prime farmland and leasing it to farmers. These are things that are going to produce steady income every month with low risk. If you get to the point where you have so much money that earning 10% per year sounds great, then that's a great idea. (But most people on these forums are crumb-bum adrenaline junkies looking for 10x gains on their four or five digit bankroll.)

How do you start investing in those assets? Buy a real estate book or a book on farmland leases. This stuff can be pretty hands-off if you give a slice of the money to middlemen agents who manage the assets for you.

If there's a financial collapse, people still need to live somewhere and eat, right? So if you own housing, food-producing assets, some skills, and some unseizable crypto, then you're as protected as you're going to get.  

Well. I'm just a student and I don't have that kind of money.

I don't know how much you'd need to buy a house for rental or farmland, but I'd guess it's far more than my total networth, even if Bitcoin rises 10x, and I sure as hell aren't going to divest everything to put it back in the dollar economy, not even in assets.

Anything more accessable for someone who isn't already rich?
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October 30, 2015, 01:04:01 PM
 #280



When there is a stock market crash and recovery, it may be a sign that the crisis has reached the turning point. But today's markets are manipulated to the core, and inflation is running rampant. average P/E= 7 or P/B = 1 are reasonable (currently both 5x higher).


What does that even mean? P/e and p/b?
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