BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[Denker]

2018 is a complete universe away from 2013. In 2018 we will enter the year with probably 50 coins near or above 1 billion in market cap. 50!
It was only mid 2016 that we had 2!

There are only two paths forward for bitcoin.

1) Bitcoin maintains its dominance as the reserve currency for crypto and continues to grow like a beating drum, Bitcoin has to hit $250k a coin and become so large that nothing will touch it, so far 300 billion seems like chump change when we have alts zooming to a billion at every turn

2) Bitcoin is replaced and is relegated to the footnotes of history.

If there is a bitcoin bear market, do any of you think there will be an overall crypto bear market??? NO effing way. If bitcoin tanks for six months, it will be all over. Bitcoin will not retake #1 if it is passed in market cap by a decentralized incumbent.  

Or alts will mostly disappear cause they are mostly useless. Then Bitcoin is in no rush.
Bitcoin getting replaced by some other coin is very very unlikely. It's network effects are way too strong and all alts are centralized in one way or the other.
Lets keep some reality here please!
In terms of regulations this may slower Bitcoins further success for some time, but this won't stop it.
Where are countries who try to regulate the sh** out of Bitcoin to harm it, there will countries who will fully embrace it!
Simple is that!

There are at least 10 other Alts that are trying to do what Satoshi originally envisioned in some variant or another. If Bitcoin were to stumble, any of them could take on the throne. Removing Bitcoin from possibilities I think you would see Ripple take over as #1, followed by Monero. Then all others would follow.

I only say ripple because most people don't care about decentralization or autonomy from governments. So most people will be fine owning Ripple and will fail to even understand why it is not really in the same game as bitcoin. Anon, decentralized, mineable coins however will always have a top dog. Right now it is Bitcoin, but it could just as easily be Dash, Monero, Verge, ZCash, ZCoin, Nav, et cetera.

With lightning, confidential transactions and Coinjoin or even MimbleWimble Bitcoin can and will be very private as well.
And why shall people use Ripple and when Paypal is around or they can just continue using CCs for that.
Sorry but I don't see a real advantage there in a centralized "coin", when traditional payment methods do the same already since many decades.
Bitcoin's price discovery is very volatile, but will decrease significantly imo as soon it hits the 6 figures in terms of value.
Then you will start seeing Bitcoin being used as a currency as well, especially with L2 and even L3 implementations. Just a matter of time.
The devs are doing an outstanding job and without all the distraction imo they would already be one step further.

[FiendCoin]

Expected price:   7313.34

I am a little concern about that. I do not think that today's price is the best reflection of what it should be the natural course of Bitcoin. There is a lot of confusion about what we could do with Bitcoin and what it will be useful. But we could see he going to challenge ATH again and again before have a major correction that put some people out of the game.

Bitcoin has rarely fallen under the 200 day ma, which is around $5800 right now. When it has fallen bellow the ma, it bounces right back above it. It fell twice below it in 2015, once at the bear market low in January and again later in the summer, both times bouncing right back.

There will not be a major crash wiping people out anytime soon, maybe after we reach 100k and fall back to whatever the 200ma is at that time, maybe 10k?

In any event, we still have along way to go.

The longer we go without a bear market, the less likely we get one as we approach the next having.

It is entirely possible we bull right into 2021 and then go bear after a crazy rally. But even then, the low will still be higher than it is today.

[jl2012]

Date:   26-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.737
VWAP:   15342.51
x:   2,719
a:   0.003318
b:   -0.120775
Rsq:   0.838035
Expected price:   7345.61
Actual price / expected price:   208.87%
BETI ATL price:   790.84
BETI ATH price:   47554.46
Expected date:   4-Aug-2018
# of days ahead:   221.95
Daily VWAP rank:   12
Next expected price:   7370.02
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00331836433279664++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.120774828196607+)
   
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00331836433279664++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.120774828196607+)
   
   
-1.00   2702.30
-0.75   3469.82
-0.50   4455.34
-0.25   5720.76
0.00   7345.61
0.25   9431.95
0.50   12110.86
0.75   15550.65
1.00   19967.43
1.25   25638.69
1.50   32920.73
1.75   42271.05
2.00   54277.11
2.25   69693.18
2.50   89487.82

[btcone111]

Maybe we should educate ourselves again of possibility of days where volatility could be very low
Looks like btc is consolidating that's not very exciting as next move could be up or down, difficult to predict！

[Denker]

Maybe we should educate ourselves again of possibility of days where volatility could be very low
Looks like btc is consolidating that's not very exciting as next move could be up or down, difficult to predict！

Yes this is definitely a completely new situation we've never seen before when BETI crossed above zero.
Bitcoin's fundamentals are looking good and really promising, therefore I believe the honeybadger is just taking a rest and he will continue moving up again when he thinks it's time to do so.
And then maybe later, after another crazy parabolic run, we'll see a blow off , who knows.

[DieJohnny]

Maybe we should educate ourselves again of possibility of days where volatility could be very low
Looks like btc is consolidating that's not very exciting as next move could be up or down, difficult to predict！

Yes this is definitely a completely new situation we've never seen before when BETI crossed above zero.
Bitcoin's fundamentals are looking good and really promising, therefore I believe the honeybadger is just taking a rest and he will continue moving up again when he thinks it's time to do so.
And then maybe later, after another crazy parabolic run, we'll see a blow off , who knows.

We are still easily within the same parabola from the last 2 years. This consolidation speaks well for a jump well past $35k though. Had we continued on up to $35k without this pause, I think that would have seen the possible end of this bull run. Bitcoin may very well break $100k if another run about $17,500 is in the works. 

[whyrqa]

Maybe we should educate ourselves again of possibility of days where volatility could be very low
Looks like btc is consolidating that's not very exciting as next move could be up or down, difficult to predict！

I completely agree with you, because today Bitcoin is unpredictable at all. Until today, I myself could not imagine that we would see such a large enough Maximum of 20,000 dollars for one Bitcoin, Although Until today the price has decreased by almost 40%. What can be difficult to predict in the future and therefore I worry very much about my contributions to Bitcoin. Perhaps it makes sense to pay attention to another alternative crypto currency, which will act as an asset.

[deivios]

first post here after lurking for a while..this very interesting thread and interesting BTC times (current bubble) have compelled me to post though ..

A thought: perhaps the underlying assumption of a log-linear relationship (log price, linear time) is incorrect and the time axis is also participating in a non-linear manner. For example, as BTC network/ecosystem gets larger and larger, the frequency of the swings and moves will also get farther and farther apart (because of that relatively increasing inertia as we move forward here.) Also the moves themselves (including the bubbles) will get drawn out over a larger time frame. If the previous bubble went through its parabolic rise in a week, for example, perhaps the next one would take all of a month (again as an example). Of course I do agree that absolute prediction is a ridiculous prospect - all kinds of random events can influence and there are different aggregates of rational and irrational behavior in the market as a whole at any given time.

Another thought: considering that the entrance of alternative cryptocurrencies is dissipating and perhaps will increasingly dissipate some of the energy in bitcoins successive bubble phases (such that the peaks of this and subsequent bubbles will be at lower and lower BETI values as a result of some of that cap being eaten up by the growing ETH's, BCH, LTC's and the like...i'm not saying zero sum game, all boats are going to continue rising here..but perhaps there is a resulting effect of dampening the acceleration somewhat..

Finally in concert with the thoughts above...I would argue that the periodic irrational 'bubble' phases that occur diverge wildly from the "true value" of bitcoin at that given point in time to a drastic extent (not a controversial point.) When it then eventually corrects back to the "boring lows", it is reasonable to assume that it is gravitating back to a more reasonable estimate of the "true value" growth of bitcoin at that point in time. If you just take these intervening periods when the world at large forgets about bitcoin for a while, there is still good growth, but the slope of this trend is very definitely NOT linear...as time goes on the trend of the 'lows', or what I am saying is an analog of a market assessed 'book value' of bitcoin, more resembles a sideways parabolic trend as shown in the image below.

http://i68.tinypic.com/29wo8s4.png

If this updated assumption is accepted the previous bubbles then get corrected BETI values in the range of 2.4 to 3.2 (difference of Ln price and the parabolic). Using these values in the current bubble phase we are in right now gives estimates of:

BETI ATL (2.4) = approx $19,800
BETI ATH (3.2) = approx $47,900

So in this model, we could already have hit the current bubble peak (presuming we top out at BETI ATL) and we are now beginning our protracted correction back down to meet the 'book value' growth curve (grey sideways parabola in image). OR, we could be hanging out for a spell and will be at ~50k in the coming weeks/months (before the then inevitable protracted correction back to 'book value' growth again). Of course we could also land somewhere in between as well.

It also implies that whether 20k or 50k or somewhere in between, the next bubble after this one could potentially be 5 years or more down the road, and when it does hit, would likely not be the one that takes it over a million (presuming nothing else gets in the way to derail the BTC manifest destiny before that )

Presuming we can get another couple of these bubbles, I think we still get to 1 million / BTC (or greater)...it just might take a little longer than what the original model prescribes.

Sorry for the book. Thoughts?

[allohha]

Maybe we should educate ourselves again of possibility of days where volatility could be very low
Looks like btc is consolidating that's not very exciting as next move could be up or down, difficult to predict！

I completely agree with you, because today Bitcoin is unpredictable at all. Until today, I myself could not imagine that we would see such a large enough Maximum of 20,000 dollars for one Bitcoin, Although Until today the price has decreased by almost 40%. What can be difficult to predict in the future and therefore I worry very much about my contributions to Bitcoin. Perhaps it makes sense to pay attention to another alternative crypto currency, which will act as an asset.

Of course, we have already seen this maximum level, which has already shown Bitcoin, That is it is 20,000 dollars. But it is possible to take into account other factors of influence. First of all, this is the fork season, which has already ended and probably will not affect the price increase.

[windjc]

first post here after lurking for a while..this very interesting thread and interesting BTC times (current bubble) have compelled me to post though ..

A thought: perhaps the underlying assumption of a log-linear relationship (log price, linear time) is incorrect and the time axis is also participating in a non-linear manner. For example, as BTC network/ecosystem gets larger and larger, the frequency of the swings and moves will also get farther and farther apart (because of that relatively increasing inertia as we move forward here.) Also the moves themselves (including the bubbles) will get drawn out over a larger time frame. If the previous bubble went through its parabolic rise in a week, for example, perhaps the next one would take all of a month (again as an example). Of course I do agree that absolute prediction is a ridiculous prospect - all kinds of random events can influence and there are different aggregates of rational and irrational behavior in the market as a whole at any given time.

Another thought: considering that the entrance of alternative cryptocurrencies is dissipating and perhaps will increasingly dissipate some of the energy in bitcoins successive bubble phases (such that the peaks of this and subsequent bubbles will be at lower and lower BETI values as a result of some of that cap being eaten up by the growing ETH's, BCH, LTC's and the like...i'm not saying zero sum game, all boats are going to continue rising here..but perhaps there is a resulting effect of dampening the acceleration somewhat..

Finally in concert with the thoughts above...I would argue that the periodic irrational 'bubble' phases that occur diverge wildly from the "true value" of bitcoin at that given point in time to a drastic extent (not a controversial point.) When it then eventually corrects back to the "boring lows", it is reasonable to assume that it is gravitating back to a more reasonable estimate of the "true value" growth of bitcoin at that point in time. If you just take these intervening periods when the world at large forgets about bitcoin for a while, there is still good growth, but the slope of this trend is very definitely NOT linear...as time goes on the trend of the 'lows', or what I am saying is an analog of a market assessed 'book value' of bitcoin, more resembles a sideways parabolic trend as shown in the image below.



If this updated assumption is accepted the previous bubbles then get corrected BETI values in the range of 2.4 to 3.2 (difference of Ln price and the parabolic). Using these values in the current bubble phase we are in right now gives estimates of:

BETI ATL (2.4) = approx $19,800
BETI ATH (3.2) = approx $47,900

So in this model, we could already have hit the current bubble peak (presuming we top out at BETI ATL) and we are now beginning our protracted correction back down to meet the 'book value' growth curve (grey sideways parabola in image). OR, we could be hanging out for a spell and will be at ~50k in the coming weeks/months (before the then inevitable protracted correction back to 'book value' growth again). Of course we could also land somewhere in between as well.

It also implies that whether 20k or 50k or somewhere in between, the next bubble after this one could potentially be 5 years or more down the road, and when it does hit, would likely not be the one that takes it over a million (presuming nothing else gets in the way to derail the BTC manifest destiny before that )

Presuming we can get another couple of these bubbles, I think we still get to 1 million / BTC (or greater)...it just might take a little longer than what the original model prescribes.

Sorry for the book. Thoughts?

It's a nice theory, but Bitcoin leads the market and all these other coins derive value for floating in bitcoin's orbit. So the BTC BETI is the BTC BETI. It should not be affected by total crypto market cap.

[jl2012]

Date:   5-Jan-2018
BETI:   0.735
VWAP:   15982.36
x:   2,729
a:   0.003324
b:   -0.125535
Rsq:   0.839788
Expected price:   7666.08
Actual price / expected price:   208.48%
BETI ATL price:   825.35
BETI ATH price:   49629.15
Expected date:   14-Aug-2018
# of days ahead:   221.05
Daily VWAP rank:   12
Next expected price:   7691.60
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00332359690643079++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.125535379095505+)
   
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00332359690643079++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.125535379095505+)
   
   
-1.00   2820.19
-0.75   3621.20
-0.50   4649.71
-0.25   5970.35
0.00   7666.08
0.25   9843.44
0.50   12639.23
0.75   16229.09
1.00   20838.56
1.25   26757.25
1.50   34356.98
1.75   44115.24
2.00   56645.09
2.25   72733.73
2.50   93391.96

[flipperfish]

And to make it worse, i have also added a BETI indicator to Tradingview.

Hah, that's cool 

However, it seems to be a it off: For the 2013 bubble top, I get a BETI of ~2.9, when it should be around 1.5?

[Krikke]

And to make it worse, i have also added a BETI indicator to Tradingview.


Screenshot

Very Nice! If it can reach the same peak level as in 2013 by the end of 2018 BTC would be at 300k$...

 

[goferit]

Okay, to figure out what's wrong i'd like to check how
 - this post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986
 - produced this beti chart: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26855063#msg26855063

Right now things don't add up for me. Please have a look at this: https://i.imgur.com/EOaiYlj.png

I took the beti formula linked in the first post and applied it to two dates:
 - 22-DEC-2017, where both formula and chart produce BETI 0,62 [1]
 - 25-NOV-2013, where the beti formula does NOT match the chart [2]

For me the chart seems not to be produced by the BETI formula. Am I missing something or have we been looking at a flawed chart?

-----
[1] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(13441.46)-(+0.00331615547164061++(+december+22,+2017+to+jul+17,+2010++)%2Fdays-0.118770392977885+)
[2] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(1100)-(+0.00331615547164061++(+november,+25+2013+to+jul+17,+2010++)%2Fdays-0.118770392977885+)

Nice. This article brought me here - http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-movement-explained-by-one-equation-fundstrat-tom-lee-metcalf-law-network-effect-2017-10

[Nummus]

Okay, to figure out what's wrong i'd like to check how
 - this post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986
 - produced this beti chart: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26855063#msg26855063

Right now things don't add up for me. Please have a look at this: https://i.imgur.com/EOaiYlj.png

I took the beti formula linked in the first post and applied it to two dates:
 - 22-DEC-2017, where both formula and chart produce BETI 0,62 [1]
 - 25-NOV-2013, where the beti formula does NOT match the chart [2]

For me the chart seems not to be produced by the BETI formula. Am I missing something or have we been looking at a flawed chart?

-----
[1] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(13441.46)-(+0.00331615547164061++(+december+22,+2017+to+jul+17,+2010++)%2Fdays-0.118770392977885+)
[2] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(1100)-(+0.00331615547164061++(+november,+25+2013+to+jul+17,+2010++)%2Fdays-0.118770392977885+)

Perhaps the graph on the chart is based on the historic BETI values, calculated on each day based on a and b values of that particular day? Just guessing. To get the correct answer, we'll have to wait for jl2012.

[Nummus]

Hey, I think you might be right. I did check this by taking the parameters from the very first post and applied them to the 25.-NOV-2913:
Screenshoot: https://i.imgur.com/nbQADHd.png

This way I get similar results as in the graph in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26855063#msg26855063. It would be great if jl2012 could confirm this.

The question to ask imo is whether we should reallyhold on to the old BETI values (BETI values in the past, calculated with parameters of the past) in the graph, or whether the whole BETI graph should always be based on the newest parameters only. In my opition the BETI graph should only be based on the newest parameters, because the old regression curve was caculated using "less information" (=btc price action after the calculation in that point of time). Thus we need to recalculate the past everytime we get new a/b parameters, thus we need to completely recalculate the BETI graph overtime.

You have a point. However, we have to make decisions right now and not in retrospect. Furthermore, in this case, the new BETI ATH would be 3! This poses a question, if we should adjust our strategy accordingly, i.e. expect that BETI could reach 3 in the next rally. I'm actually not sure what's best and I look forward to your and other people's opinions.

[deivios]

first post here after lurking for a while..this very interesting thread and interesting BTC times (current bubble) have compelled me to post though ..

A thought: perhaps the underlying assumption of a log-linear relationship (log price, linear time) is incorrect and the time axis is also participating in a non-linear manner. For example, as BTC network/ecosystem gets larger and larger, the frequency of the swings and moves will also get farther and farther apart (because of that relatively increasing inertia as we move forward here.) Also the moves themselves (including the bubbles) will get drawn out over a larger time frame. If the previous bubble went through its parabolic rise in a week, for example, perhaps the next one would take all of a month (again as an example). Of course I do agree that absolute prediction is a ridiculous prospect - all kinds of random events can influence and there are different aggregates of rational and irrational behavior in the market as a whole at any given time.

Another thought: considering that the entrance of alternative cryptocurrencies is dissipating and perhaps will increasingly dissipate some of the energy in bitcoins successive bubble phases (such that the peaks of this and subsequent bubbles will be at lower and lower BETI values as a result of some of that cap being eaten up by the growing ETH's, BCH, LTC's and the like...i'm not saying zero sum game, all boats are going to continue rising here..but perhaps there is a resulting effect of dampening the acceleration somewhat..

Finally in concert with the thoughts above...I would argue that the periodic irrational 'bubble' phases that occur diverge wildly from the "true value" of bitcoin at that given point in time to a drastic extent (not a controversial point.) When it then eventually corrects back to the "boring lows", it is reasonable to assume that it is gravitating back to a more reasonable estimate of the "true value" growth of bitcoin at that point in time. If you just take these intervening periods when the world at large forgets about bitcoin for a while, there is still good growth, but the slope of this trend is very definitely NOT linear...as time goes on the trend of the 'lows', or what I am saying is an analog of a market assessed 'book value' of bitcoin, more resembles a sideways parabolic trend as shown in the image below.

http://i68.tinypic.com/29wo8s4.png

If this updated assumption is accepted the previous bubbles then get corrected BETI values in the range of 2.4 to 3.2 (difference of Ln price and the parabolic). Using these values in the current bubble phase we are in right now gives estimates of:

BETI ATL (2.4) = approx $19,800
BETI ATH (3.2) = approx $47,900

So in this model, we could already have hit the current bubble peak (presuming we top out at BETI ATL) and we are now beginning our protracted correction back down to meet the 'book value' growth curve (grey sideways parabola in image). OR, we could be hanging out for a spell and will be at ~50k in the coming weeks/months (before the then inevitable protracted correction back to 'book value' growth again). Of course we could also land somewhere in between as well.

It also implies that whether 20k or 50k or somewhere in between, the next bubble after this one could potentially be 5 years or more down the road, and when it does hit, would likely not be the one that takes it over a million (presuming nothing else gets in the way to derail the BTC manifest destiny before that )

Presuming we can get another couple of these bubbles, I think we still get to 1 million / BTC (or greater)...it just might take a little longer than what the original model prescribes.

Sorry for the book. Thoughts?

It's a nice theory, but Bitcoin leads the market and all these other coins derive value for floating in bitcoin's orbit. So the BTC BETI is the BTC BETI. It should not be affected by total crypto market cap.

I don't mean to misappropriate or question the sanctity of the BETI metric that has been developed here...I was merely pointing out that the underlying log-linear trend that has been assumed might be a bad one.

So far, looks like the low end (20k) for the predicted bubble peak using a different, sideways parabolic growth assumption is holding correct so far (ie we will not be surpassing 20k until the next bubble cycle). Prepare now for an extended and volatile descent back down to that parabolic over the next 5 years or so (if this different take on the model is more reflective of reality)...and then, barring other intervening factors (like massive global governmental collusion to undermine bitcoin), the hype cycle should then repeat all over again and we will take-off on another bubble again...but at more modest peak again...it's still exponential trend it seems but a diminishing one.

As for the other alt-coins...it's hard to argue that they are not taking at least a litttle bit of steam away from the even greater growth that the bitcoin price would see if it were still the only major cryptocoin on the scene. For instance, Ethereum is a major player and has a market cap share that cannot be trivialized (or spoken of as somehow being derived wholly from bitcoin gravity.)

Our models only serve us to the extent that they reflect reality. They should always be thought about critically and altered when necessary - and not dogmatically followed as though they themselves are reality.

[DieJohnny]

BETI touched zero I think or close to it, I think we need a stronger bounce to avoid the bear. I am looking for strong push above 14500 before i think we are going to ath any time soon.

[Nummus]

BETI touched zero I think or close to it, I think we need a stronger bounce to avoid the bear. I am looking for strong push above 14500 before i think we are going to ath any time soon.

I think that a slower recovery is more sustainable than a fast one. So I think that the recovery is just fine so far. But yeah, we'll have to wait somewhat longer for the confirmation that we're out of the woods.

In my opinion BETI would fall below zero only in case of some negative fundamental developments that would make investors seriously question the future of Bitcoin. But no one can predict that.

[Pruden]

BETI touched zero I think or close to it, I think we need a stronger bounce to avoid the bear. I am looking for strong push above 14500 before i think we are going to ath any time soon.

The low was more than 1000$ above the BETI expected price.