BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[Biodom]

OP, where are we on the chart? Did we dip below -1.5 yesterday at 307?
I think that we are bouncing pretty hard and many are calling for this bear to be over.

[1714474469]

1714474469

[1714474469]

1714474469

[Driv3n]

OP, where are we on the chart? Did we dip below -1.5 yesterday at 307?
I think that we are bouncing pretty hard and many are calling for this bear to be over.

Yep we were at roughly -1.64 yesterday when we hit 307. Hopefully more signs of a trend reversal continue.

[jl2012]

Date:    19-Dec-2014
VWAP:    313.31
x:    1616
a:    0.00551
b:    -1.55140
Rsq:    0.89664
The day's expected price:    1553.94
Actual price / expected price:   20.16%
Log(Actual price / expected price):   -1.601
Predicted date for today's price:    3-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -290.77
Daily price rank:    405
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    27-Oct-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00550739267993612++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.5513992248266+%29   

[Driv3n]

Currently at -1.85, lowest we've been in over 3 years but not uncharted territory.

[jl2012]

Date:    3-Jan-2015
VWAP:    297.71
x:    1631
a:    0.00545
b:    -1.52182
Rsq:    0.89449
The day's expected price:    1590.42
Actual price / expected price:   18.72%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.676
Predicted date for today's price:    1-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -307.30
Daily price rank:    422
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    6-Nov-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00545283472345717++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.52181815941052+%29   

[jl2012]

Currently at -1.85, lowest we've been in over 3 years but not uncharted territory.

It's around -1.8 as the slope is decresing

The all-time-low was -2.23. To go there today it has to reach around $170

[jl2012]

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

[Wekkel]

Thanks for the update.

[Biodom]

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

according to the OP formula calc, it went to -2.38 (new record) when BTC was $155 briefly. Right now -2.11 (at BTC=$203).
I will wait for the double dip and if we will not go below $155, it might be a time for a longterm buy.
Or not.

[stonerider]

We are in an uncharted territory now, yes?

[Driv3n]

We are in an uncharted territory now, yes?

More or less.  In the 150-160 range we're further below the trend line than we ever have been.  Even at $200 we're close to uncharted territory.

[altcoin hitler]

It's over. The trend is fucked royal.



My condolences to all the hype-victims.

[jl2012]

It's still in a charted area, as I calculate based on the daily VWAP. It was -2.149 yesterday

Date:    14-Jan-2015
VWAP:    189.84
x:    1642
a:    0.00542
b:    -1.50376
Rsq:    0.89272
The day's expected price:    1628.74
Actual price / expected price:   11.66%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -2.149
Predicted date for today's price:    13-Dec-2013
Days ahead:    -396.58
Daily price rank:    443
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    12-Nov-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00541980331595342++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.50375586101172+%29   

[jl2012]

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

according to the OP formula calc, it went to -2.38 (new record) when BTC was $155 briefly. Right now -2.11 (at BTC=$203).
I will wait for the double dip and if we will not go below $155, it might be a time for a longterm buy.
Or not.

Please note that the analysis is based on daily VWAP, not instantaneous minimum/maximum price.

[Driv3n]

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

according to the OP formula calc, it went to -2.38 (new record) when BTC was $155 briefly. Right now -2.11 (at BTC=$203).
I will wait for the double dip and if we will not go below $155, it might be a time for a longterm buy.
Or not.

Please note that the analysis is based on daily VWAP, not instantaneous minimum/maximum price.

Good to know, thanks for updating.

[SmoothCurves]

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

according to the OP formula calc, it went to -2.38 (new record) when BTC was $155 briefly. Right now -2.11 (at BTC=$203).
I will wait for the double dip and if we will not go below $155, it might be a time for a longterm buy.
Or not.

Please note that the analysis is based on daily VWAP, not instantaneous minimum/maximum price.

What price would a +1.5 be?

[Biodom]

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

according to the OP formula calc, it went to -2.38 (new record) when BTC was $155 briefly. Right now -2.11 (at BTC=$203).
I will wait for the double dip and if we will not go below $155, it might be a time for a longterm buy.
Or not.

Please note that the analysis is based on daily VWAP, not instantaneous minimum/maximum price.

What price would a +1.5 be?

it depends how fast it will go up, but if 2011-2013 was to repeat itself, which I don't expect, AND this trend sustaining itself (a major doubt as well), then probably at least roughly X100-125 from the bottom (see previous lows and highs) or to ~$19,000-20,000. I am not sure that we won't double dip to establish the bottom within <=1mo, but btc does not have to follow the trend as depicted here, but I wish that it will.

[jl2012]

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

according to the OP formula calc, it went to -2.38 (new record) when BTC was $155 briefly. Right now -2.11 (at BTC=$203).
I will wait for the double dip and if we will not go below $155, it might be a time for a longterm buy.
Or not.

Please note that the analysis is based on daily VWAP, not instantaneous minimum/maximum price.

What price would a +1.5 be?

+1.5? That would be $7300 today

[rpietila]

It's over. The trend is fucked royal.



My condolences to all the hype-victims.

The trend seems to not have reached even its previous low value 3 years ago. Hard to believe anything significant has happened. Anyone not willing to operate in a timescale of 3-5 years should not even invest in common stock, let alone anything interesting 

Buy now or bite your nails forever 

[jl2012]

Update:

Date:    1-Feb-2015
VWAP:    221.57
x:    1660
a:    0.00534
b:    -1.46036
Rsq:    0.88793
The day's expected price:    1645.57
Actual price / expected price:   13.46%
Log(Actual price / expected price):   -2.005
VWAP to break the -2.23 all-time-low:   177.17 NEW!
VWAP to break the +1.87 all-time-high:   10653.22 NEW!
Predicted date for today's price:    21-Jan-2014
Days ahead:    -375.41
Daily price rank:    443
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00534108738429767++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.46036061998383+%29