US Presidential Election 2020

[tyKiwanuka]

I will happily admit not being an expert when it comes to US politics nor am I totally understanding all these pre-elections, delegates etc. It's hard to get the exact modus operandi for someone not living in the US - maybe even for people that actually live there, not sure - and tbh I didn't dive too deep into it (shame on me).

I am following the daily pressers of Andrew Cuomo and what can I say, I am impressed with him. That guy seems to be super nice, super humane, super empathic, super charismatic and from my outsiders point of view managing the horrible situation in the state of New York very good. Every time I watch him, I think, that he would be a good US president and a breath of fresh air compared to Trump.

Out of curiosity I checked the betting odds. Was not expecting to find any odds for him, but to my surprise he is 3rd favourite to become the next president. Quite amazing for someone who I thought not even to be "eligible". After some research, I found out, that it is indeed still possible for him to run for president. These are the odds, taken from Orbit Exchange:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

For those not familiar with betting, odds of 46 imply a probabilty of ~2.17% for this outcome to happen. And I have the feeling, that the probabilty of Cuomo being the next president is higher.

I know he just said a few days ago to not even spending a thought about running for president, but you never know, he wouldn't be the first politician to change his mind. He is friends with Biden, which isn't helping my case here.

My point is, if (and that is a big if) he is running for president, I think he would easily beat Trump. And Biden and those delegates who select him, know this too. Democrats want to get rid of Trump and Cuomo is giving them the best chance to do so. Would they sacrifice Biden ?

Biden is pretty old already. Not wishing him any bad - I am thinking from a betting perspective here, not as a human being - but he had some health issues in the past and with 75+ you are more prone to diseases. This is unlikely to happen and I certainly don't wish for it, but that alone maybe has already 1% here.

If Cuomo somehow is able to prevent the worst for New York and then goes on to help other states, that peak later, I could see a lot of public pressure being put on Biden. And maybe, just maybe, he will step down on his own and make room for Cuomo.

Am I being totally delusional here ?

I really like those odds for Cuomo and there is not a lot to lose with such high odds, but I would like to hear some opinions from other users. And since we have a lot of US guys here, you can probably enlighten me, how likely that all is regarding the nominee procedure, which is already midway through with the pre-elections.

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[7788bitcoin]

Am I being totally delusional here ?

I really like those odds for Cuomo and there is not a lot to lose with such high odds, but I would like to hear some opinions from other users. And since we have a lot of US guys here, you can probably enlighten me, how likely that all is regarding the nominee procedure, which is already midway through with the pre-elections.

Anything is possible, i did not expect Trump to win the elections after many news outlets were biased and mocking him even though Hilary is not the best candidate but everyone was expecting Hilary to win and when the results came out everyone was shocked and hence there is nothing delusional, i see Joe Biden as the potential winner but who knows Trump could win again and with the pandemic in full swing i expect Trump to make use of this as an opportunity to bid for the next election.

[buwaytress]

Anything is possible, i did not expect Trump to win the elections after many news outlets were biased and mocking him even though Hilary is not the best candidate

That's likely because guys like you and me are fed the headlines we unconsciously like. The media is always going to be biased, depending on which side they support -- essentially, which politics ends up filling up their rice bowl, and that's fair game these days. So if we don't seek out Trump media, then we wouldn't have known.

I would say that Brexit gave a clue though. I think the only ones who were truly shocked were the upper middle class in affluent societies. They just did not expect the working class to be that angry.

I'm not betting on this, just never do, but Trump's the smart money at 2/1. People (and I mean Joe on the street) actually like Trump and his money-where-my-mouth-is, walk-the-walk attitude.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Well.. I don't understand this. There is no doubt that Andrew Cuomo is having very high approval ratings right now. But I can't see a scenario where he is included in the ballot for POTUS 2020. The Democratic primaries are almost finished and only 3 candidates remain there. Apart from Joe Biden, we have Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard. Now it is too late for Andrew Cuomo to enter the race for Democratic nomination.

The only way he can compete for the president post is to run as an independent. Given how loyal Cuomo is to the Democratic party, I would rule out that option.

[TalkStar]

i see Joe Biden as the potential winner but who knows Trump could win again and with the pandemic in full swing i expect Trump to make use of this as an opportunity to bid for the next election.

I think Joe Biden gonna make hard competition with president Trump. Although Donald Trump have already  showed his capabilities on last presidential election and all who made prediction about his popularity gone wrong. IMO still Donald Trump is much popular than any other candidate and its because most native american wants him.

United states is facing the worst situation ever due to covid-19 pandemic and for this reason US citizens may change their decision during next election. Its crystal clear that due to lack of proper preparation and precautionary steps united state citizens are at high risk now and number of affected people is getting higher in every seconds. Personally i think a big number of US citizen will change their mind after facing this situation and most probably that's not gonna be positive for Trump administration. 

[tyKiwanuka]

I'm not betting on this, just never do, but Trump's the smart money at 2/1. People (and I mean Joe on the street) actually like Trump and his money-where-my-mouth-is, walk-the-walk attitude.

Well, if Trump was 2/1 (3.00) I would surely bet on him, but he is just around ~2.10 as you can see above. This is some value against Biden, compared to no value at all against Cuomo. But the slight uncertainty about the democrat nominee is of course already priced in (in Trumps odds). If Biden was already nominated, odds would be Trump 1.95 vs Biden 2.05 (Biden is 1.16 to be democrat nominee, so 2.38/1.16 = 2.05).

Now it is too late for Andrew Cuomo to enter the race for Democratic nomination.

Theoretically it is not too late, but practically yes, since Cuomo has other things to take care of right now. But this is part of my question from first post - lets say the democratic pre-elections are finished/decided, what are the options/scenarios for Cuomo to still enter the race ? Lets say Biden gets sick or he realizes his chances being slim against Trump and deciding to make room for Cuomo - would it be easy for Cuomo to run for president or are the (legal) hurdles just too high ? Can you always run as independent, even like 4 weeks before the election is being held ?

I agree, that Cuomo won't compete as long as Biden is still in the race, but there are scenarios, where Biden might be out (for whatever reason). And these scenarios have more than 2.17% from my uneducated view right now.


Disregarding the getting-sick factor, for which I don't hope, I am asking myself this: I am 77 years old and would like to be the next US President. My chances are more or less 50/50. A guy from my party, 15 years younger and with whom I have a friendly relationship, has way better chances to beat Trump and make my Democrats enter the WH again. What do I do ? Am I putting my own goals above the goals from my party and the future of my nation ?

[swogerino]

I am not an expert either but I fancy Andrew Cuomo as he is doing a great job in locking down New York in order to save as many lives as possible from the latest covid 19 virus.If I were to bet I would bet on him.

[CryptoArbi]

Trump's odds 2-3 weeks ago were 1.73. Now they are 2.10-12. That means the Coronavirus had a negative impact in his run for re-election. Some facts as I see them.
Biden will be the Democrat to run for president.
Trump will find the Coronavirus as an excuse to send millions of checks nearly to every household in the US and thus bribe them for their vote. As a result, inflation will spread all over.

[notblox1]

I think that Trump will get re-elected.
Only question is how he handles all corona situations, and that will affect how easy he is going to win.
I don't see Biden as president ever.

[LTU_btc]

I haven't followed much US elections 2020 action yet. And honestly, I don't have that much knowledge about US political system as some US based guys here. So, I don't pretend to be expert.
Maybe month ago I was certain that Trump will be elected again. I didn't saw anyone who would be strong competitor But seems that currently situation had changed a bit, odds also changed. It's probably because of Trump's initial reaction to COVID-19 and how he handled whole situation. Now USA is most affected country and no doubt that Trump has role in it

Biden is pretty old already. Not wishing him any bad - I am thinking from a betting perspective here, not as a human being - but he had some health issues in the past and with 75+ you are more prone to diseases. This is unlikely to happen and I certainly don't wish for it, but that alone maybe has already 1% here.

Well, but Trump is just few years younger. But he looks healthy for his age, not like Biden.

I am not an expert either but I fancy Andrew Cuomo as he is doing a great job in locking down New York in order to save as many lives as possible from the latest covid 19 virus.If I were to bet I would bet on him.

I'm not sure about it. New York has most COVID-19 cases and most deaths in USA. So, I don't think that we call it as great job...

[tyKiwanuka]

Well, but Trump is just few years younger. But he looks healthy for his age, not like Biden.

Trump looks very artificial imo, has good makeup artist. But yes, he looks good and fit all in all considering his age and the workload/problems. There is of course also the possiblity of Trump getting sick, but I was looking more at the likelihood of Biden not being able to continue because of health issues.

I'm not sure about it. New York has most COVID-19 cases and most deaths in USA. So, I don't think that we call it as great job...

Most politicians were a bit careless in the beginning and taking things too light. These scenes from Italy, Spain, France and New York could have been prevented with better preparation. But then again, it's not easy for the poiiticians too. If you tell people to stay at home and shut down public life at a point where there is basically nothing going on regarding the virus, this is hard to convey. It will create panic among the citizens and/or most wouldn't follow the orders probably. Very hard to get it right.

So Cuomo is probably to blame to let it get that far unprepared, but how he is handling the situation now it has gotten so bad, is pretty good imo. And the public thinks so too, which is important for that bet in the end


I have placed some bet on Cuomo now. I don't recommend to follow, because this is a huge gamble and I will look to lay off my liability later to have a freebet on him. Lets see, if this works out.

[tomahawk9]

Trump's odds 2-3 weeks ago were 1.73. Now they are 2.10-12.

I have never mixed politics with gambling, probably never will tbh, but to those who plan on going with Trump, here's my two cents (Reminder, i'm an outsider, i'm no expert in US politics, this is just my opinion based on what's been going on since January): Odds will probably be around @2.30 or @3.00 in the next few weeks or months...Be patient.

The coronavirus task force, as well as many reputable doctors and health institutions in the US, have stated that the outbreak will reach the apex in about a week or so, that means more confirmed cases of covid-19 and more deaths. This will translate into unhappines and fear from every US citizen, and uncertenty will take over everyone's minds as most of them will remember what happened during 2007-2009 (rough times for everyone in the US, regardless of their political views). Then all of that will translate into poor results for the Trump administration in the national polls as widespread sentiment will be (for the lack of a better word) "bearish" .

Add to that the unemployment rate will keep going up in the upcoming months (some say it will reach two digits, same as the last recession), the anti-trump media establishment bombarding the citizens 24/7 with their anti-trump propaganda, the national (and global) economic fallout going strong ...This all means a very bleak future for the Trump administration = Trump's odds could very well be around 3.00 very soon.

With all that said, if I were a Trump supporter, I would totally wait and take those odds (2.30 or even 3.00, who knows?) in a few weeks or months. Why? It's obvious that the current sentiment (frustration and fear) will make people believe there has to be change, but that's in the next 2-3 months. I believe that once the coronavirus infection curves begins its downward movement, the country starts its slow economic recovery, and the presidential election gets closer (i'm talking late Q3, Q4), people will remember WHY they voted for Trump, they (Trump supporters) will find themselves in the same situation they were during the Obama administration and the 2016 presidendial election, and they'll very likely show their support for Trump once again.

TL;DR: I think Trump will win. If you're a Trump supporter, wait a bit more, you'll get better odds soon, sounds greedy, but you know how it goes around here: high risk, high reward (:

About Cuomo, if he starts gaining more and more support then we'll be witnessing what "recency bias" from the masses can do. Maybe people will forget about him once everything normalizes? I don't know, but making decisions based on "recency bias" doesn't mean you can expect a positive outcome in the long-term, just sayin'...

[Gyfts]

...

Voters already tend to vote Trump's response of the coronavirus favorable so I'm not sure how large the dip in the polls will be resulted from the peak of deaths in a few weeks. Also it's important to keep in mind that only the epicenters will see devastating peaks, primarily NYC and maybe New Orleans and Miami. What goes on in these cities won't be representative of the entire country so I'm thinking the lasting effect won't be too impactful.

On the note of unemployment, the effects unemployment are going to take years to recover so there are very well going to be hundreds of thousands, if not millions, still unemployed by November. I've said this before, but Trump's only pitch to win reelection prior to coronavirus was the risking stock market, good economy, and low employment rate. All three of these things are wiped out. So Trump needs to predicate his election on his coronavirus response, which wasn't great to be honest, and pitch it in a way that makes it look like he handled it well. The $1200 stimulus/relief check is part of that pitch and I think that's what voters are going to look towards.

Joe Biden will win the nomination but I think he'll lose the general election. It's difficult to beat an incumbent as is but Biden's just a weak candidate who's losing his cognitive ability and hiding from the media during one of the world's biggest crisis in recent history.

[goinmerry]

Trump's odds 2-3 weeks ago were 1.73. Now they are 2.10-12. That means the Coronavirus had a negative impact in his run for re-election. Some facts as I see them.

The USA is still in the early weeks of battling the virus, therefore, we can really see some decline in Trump's odds due to the fact that people only depend on how the US Pres handled the case since the start of wrath of the virus on the country. But as days or weeks passes by and Trump able to find good work or solution to control the outbreak, except that he will be on the Favorites again.

Trump will find the Coronavirus as an excuse to send millions of checks nearly to every household in the US and thus bribe them for their vote. As a result, inflation will spread all over.

Speculation at its finest lol.

[tyKiwanuka]

The coronavirus task force, as well as many reputable doctors and health institutions in the US, have stated that the outbreak will reach the apex in about a week or so, (...)

The USA is still in the early weeks of battling the virus, (...)

The projected apex being aorund one week away was only for the state of New York, if I am not mistaken. And checking the air traffic in the US right now, I am not so sure, if things will calm down easily:


Source: https://www.flightradar24.com

The longer this all goes, the worse for Trump, the better for Biden/Democrats, as bad as this may sound. If the situation does indeed get better in the next two weeks, then Trump will be the big winner. It's 8 months until the election and as fast as things have gone down economically, they could also recover in a relatively short period of time or be on the right track come the election.

And btw Trump promoting this Lupus med over and over, is a bit strange. Wouldn't surprise me, if he is somehow financially involved in the company producing it.

[TitanGEL]

Trump's odds 2-3 weeks ago were 1.73. Now they are 2.10-12. That means the Coronavirus had a negative impact in his run for re-election. Some facts as I see them.

The USA is still in the early weeks of battling the virus, therefore, we can really see some decline in Trump's odds due to the fact that people only depend on how the US Pres handled the case since the start of wrath of the virus on the country. But as days or weeks passes by and Trump able to find good work or solution to control the outbreak, except that he will be on the Favorites again.

Trump will find the Coronavirus as an excuse to send millions of checks nearly to every household in the US and thus bribe them for their vote. As a result, inflation will spread all over.

Speculation at its finest lol.

He have the highest odd because people love him, his speech are too good and it is one of his skills unlike other candidates where their speech is like scripted. Anyway Trump is a businessman so he has a leadership skill that fitted to be a president. If the virus in the United States are be contained, where the graph of the residents eho have virus will be flattened. Then we will see that the odds will be favor to Trump.

[bbc.reporter]

I am certain that the Trump haters on this thread forgot what occured versus Hillary during the 2016 election. Trump was given worse odds on 2016 than what is given today, however, he won.

Also, I am always skeptical of the mainstream media. If they hate him, why and what is their agenda?

@tyKiwanuka. Lupus meds? What is on the data that it works and what is on the data that it does not work? What are doctors saying?

It is the year of the election, he will be more careful and avoid to make false assertions.

[DarkStar_]

Worth mentioning that odds for Biden to become the nominee are 1.16 (vig removed probability of 85.58%). They are way higher than I thought they'd be and I'm really curious how much of that pricing is death/health issues and how much of it is a different candidate winning.


FiveThirtyEight is projecting Biden at ~99.9% chance of winning the primary assuming the current race stays the way it is:


I think it's really interesting how Cuomo is now the (Biden/Trump excluded) favourite for becoming the next president. Hillary Clinton was the favourite before he made himself more known which I also thought was odd, but I guess she has/had a decent chance of dropping in and gaining a lot of support should something happen to Biden. Cuomo is probably similar, though I'm not that familiar with how US politics work.

Another interesting stat is the odds for a Biden vs Trump fight: (from Pinnacle)


51.57% implied vig removed for Trump and 48.43% implied vig removed for essentially a bet on Biden. The selection is "Field", but the rules require both Trump and Biden to be viable nominees on election day, which I'm assuming means no death/illness preventing either of them from running.

On the Republican Nominee side, a bet on Trump pays 1.09 (implied vig removed 90.98%):


For someone more familiar with American politics, would it be fair to say that these odds are essentially the odds of him not dropping out due to illness/death? From what I've seen, it doesn't seem like there's any chance he willingly drops out or fails to gain the required delegate count, regardless of what actions he does. 1.09x is also way higher then what I would have expected.

[bbc.reporter]

@DarkStar_. It might appear higher, however, the sportsbooks may have taken considerations on open unknowns that might occur. The situation under this pandemic is very unpredictable.

There should be a bet if a 2020 election would continue or not hehe. The pandemic might become worse on November.

[DarkStar_]

@DarkStar_. It might appear higher, however, the sportsbooks may have taken considerations on open unknowns that might occur. The situation under this pandemic is very unpredictable.

There should be a bet if a 2020 election would continue or not hehe. The pandemic might become worse on November.

I can't seem to find historical data from a quick search, but I believe odds for Trump the Republican Nominee have stayed mostly the same and Biden as the Democratic Nominee went up a little bit (from around 1.1). COVID-19 or not, they were still way higher than I expected. Betfair Exchange as a whole is definitely a lot sharper and more knowledgeable than I am though, so I'm really curious if this reasoning is all chance of death/illness or if there's other major factors too.