2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[stompix]

The Electoral College is designed to average the voting power by considering the power of the voting population in high and low-populated states. This looks like the best plan to me and I wonder why people would condemn it because if not considered, it would have amounted to giving the more populated states more voting power over the less populated ones.

More populated states get more voting power anyhow.
The biggest disadvantage of this system is that you can basically lose with not a single vote in the major states, so no votes out of 100 million voters and then win by just 51% in the rest, so in theory, you could win the election by getting less than one-third of the votes.

For example California, Texas and Florida last time:
California   11,110,639   6,006,518   
Florida   5,297,045           5,668,731
Texas   5,259,126           5,890,347

Biden got 21,666,810 and 55 electoral votes, Trump 17,565,596 and 67 electoral votes.
Does it look normal?

I believe that Kennedy truly saw something happened shady and bad in Democratic Party that is a his family's favorite party for many decades.

Or maybe he is the exception, as not every single Kennedy out there is nuts enough to brag about getting a roadkill bear cub from the street and then dump it in Central Park because he thought it was funny.

Anyhow, Stake has 3 states for betting, wonder if they will add more, as long as you still can place bets on candidates with 1:100 you can easily toss there most states too, and some of them are quite interesting, like PA and MI

[bitgolden]

All the polls showing different results, I have seen Harris leading five points, I have seen Trump leading five points, around the same time.

This goes to show you that polls are not to be trusted, odds for betting thankfully shows in most cases a lot better and clearer results but that does not exactly mean that they will be right, it just means what seems to be people actually think.

Saying you will vote for someone on the phone, and actually betting on who you think will win are different things, which is why it is not clear that we can make up who will win just yet but we can say that most recently for the past month or so a lot more people bet on Kamala than Trump, which shows a momentum. Does that means she is going to win?

Of course not, maybe she will say something moronic and lose, or maybe trump as usual will something stupid like he always does and he will lose, we really do not know.

Only thing we have right now is that Kamala has a momentum going for her and that's undeniable, it is clear and we know that it is true. We can see that on the news too, and on twitter and every other place political, she has the momentum, if she wants to win, she needs to build on that momentum to keep going.

[OgNasty]

^ It seems like everyone is so divided these days that polls are usually done in echo chambers by whoever is in charge of running them. Elon’s recent poll with 80% of people saying they were going to vote for Trump is a good example. I just hope people make the right decision come November. This seems like the most important election of my lifetime.

[TheGreatPython]

Kennedy family is vast and there are more than just Kennedy, most of which loyal to democratic party which Kennedy family was a big part of. However, one thing I can say that this dude was in the democratic party, and he was a nominee and he was disliked like any other nominee ever, imagine being part of a party that literally prefers other parties candidate than you, that's a very very rare situation.

If you ask the democratic party voters, would you prefer ANY candidate from democratic party or Trump, they would all say that any member of their party would be fine over trump, except this dude lol. In the end, we are seeing things picking up speed, which is lovely and I hope that it gets quicker by the day, there was a two week period where not much happened.

[Hispo]

^ It seems like everyone is so divided these days that polls are usually done in echo chambers by whoever is in charge of running them. Elon’s recent poll with 80% of people saying they were going to vote for Trump is a good example. I just hope people make the right decision come November. This seems like the most important election of my lifetime.

Division among the people of the United States is something which is specially convenient for some of the country's foes, just saying... Regardless of who wins in November there is still a very long path ahead to make people come together and work for their country shoulder to shoulder. Also, it is normal to believe this election is going to be the most important one in one's lifetime, because of how unprecedented it has shown to be. In the same way people thought the election of Obama was unprecedented in the first place.
I can also tell the betting markets on this election are showing an even higher volume and liquidity than previous elections, more people from abroad are more engaged than usual in this race.
People who would otherwise show no interest in USA politics are keeping an eye on this election...

[Docnaster]

Kennedy family is vast and there are more than just Kennedy, most of which loyal to democratic party which Kennedy family was a big part of. However, one thing I can say that this dude was in the democratic party, and he was a nominee and he was disliked like any other nominee ever, imagine being part of a party that literally prefers other parties candidate than you, that's a very very rare situation.

If you ask the democratic party voters, would you prefer ANY candidate from democratic party or Trump, they would all say that any member of their party would be fine over trump, except this dude lol. In the end, we are seeing things picking up speed, which is lovely and I hope that it gets quicker by the day, there was a two week period where not much happened.

Since Robert F Kennedy Jr suspended his independent campaign for the White House and endorsed the candidate of Republican Party last week, a lot have been said by different reporters concerning the news and the effect it could have on the US or polls. Majority of the reports I've accessed suggests that the action isn't gonna stop Kamala Harris of the Democratic party from winning the presidential elections. Personally, I think some of these reports are just mere media wars to undermine the strength of Donald Trump ahead of the polls and if you ask me, I'll say I consider Trump a candidate that's more likely to win the election.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I also believe that Trump will win, but the whole movement of the Obama family and the world media may confuse some voters thinking that Kamala Harris may be the favorite to win the presidential elections, this worries me a lot... Anyway, we will follow how things unfold over time... at first I am considering this Obama movement a kind of desperation on the left side of the force.

This will become increasingly heated for the Democratic politicians, because when they do the polls and they go so badly , things will become increasingly uphill for them, because the American people have seen that Trump has given them everything, even almost getting killed, being at that famous rally is something that people see, and people are Filled with feelings, and it is through feelings and being emotional that an election can also be won, because the masses move.

[Webetcoins]

More populated states get more voting power anyhow.
The biggest disadvantage of this system is that you can basically lose with not a single vote in the major states, so no votes out of 100 million voters and then win by just 51% in the rest, so in theory, you could win the election by getting less than one-third of the votes.

For example California, Texas and Florida last time:
California   11,110,639   6,006,518   
Florida   5,297,045           5,668,731
Texas   5,259,126           5,890,347

Bides got 21,666,810 and 55 electoral votes, Trump 17,565,596 and 67 electoral votes.
Does it look normal?

This works very well for republicans, gives them a chance to win, because if it was popular vote then they would all lose every single time, the odds for Kamala winning popular vote could be as low as 1.50 or even lower, because it's clear that she will, if it was all popular vote then we would have no contest, no republican would ever win. This is why, to keep it interesting and "fair" they made up this, and keep not touching it.

If it was adjusted to the population, then we would have states having different points for EC, but it is not touched, while New York grew in size much more, it didn't get much more EC points, and all of that, all that "gerrymandering" and EC, allowed republicans to have a chance. Do you think that nearly half of the nation would allow something like "we will do this, so you will never win ever again"? Of course not, they know they are the minority, they know that they will lose, so they try to keep whatever they can keep from this system.

[stompix]

~

This works very well for republicans, gives them a chance to win, because if it was popular vote then they would all lose every single time, the odds for Kamala winning popular vote could be as low as 1.50 or even lower, because it's clear that she will, if it was all popular vote then we would have no contest, no republican would ever win. This is why, to keep it interesting and "fair" they made up this, and keep not touching it.

How is that fair?
It's manipulating the system so that the outcome might not actually reflect the will of the majority! There is nothing fair in it, it's turning voting into a reality show. As for the odds only a few bookies still offer the popular vote, William is at 1.20 for Kamala.

If it was adjusted to the population, then we would have states having different points for EC, but it is not touched, while New York grew in size much more, it didn't get much more EC points, and all of that, all that "gerrymandering" and EC, allowed republicans to have a chance.

New York is experiencing the 4th consecutive year of decline in raw population and 9th on the percentage of population compared to the entire country. Anyhow, this whole thing is ridiculous, the US is the last democratic country using this system, and if someone is going to tell me it's more democratic then Switzerland and Norway might want to say something.

because the American people have seen that Trump has given them everything,

Trump has been president for 4 years and the only thing that he gave everyone was the middle finger!
https://prospect.org/politics/trumps-40-biggest-broken-promises/

[Webetcoins]

How is that fair?
It's manipulating the system so that the outcome might not actually reflect the will of the majority! There is nothing fair in it, it's turning voting into a reality show. As for the odds only a few bookies still offer the popular vote, William is at 1.20 for Kamala.

It's not, it's unfair, it was never designed to be fair, it was designed to be close. With this method, there is nearly equal chances that Kamala or Trump could win, if we make it popular vote, or just simply give EC votes based on population, which is basically the same thing, Kamala wins, it's over and there is no elections.

I mean think about it, only once in the last 30+ years that they won, 32 or 33 years I believe, so we are talking about republican party literally gone. No congress, no senators, no presidents, while that may or may not be fair, it's clear that they would become a country that is ruled by democrats.

In fact, there would be no need for elections and just whoever is the nominee for democrats would win, sort of like California marks elections. I am not saying it's fair, I am just saying that they wanted equal chances, give the republicans a fighting chance, that's why they did it. I am explaining the reason, I am not saying it's good, I am just saying "why", I am not even American, so it is not up to me, I just wanted to help clarify why they ignore the majority of the voters, because if they don't, there won't be any elections left.

[bbc.reporter]

There is a news update being shared in social media mentioning that Mark Zuckerburg who everyone know already is the CEO of Facebook has declared that he regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration in working with to censor information on the coronavirus in his social media platform.

It appears in this letter Zuckerburg has admitted that Facebook was pressured by the government to censor content and they also admitted to stop the circulation of the story about Biden's family and Burisma after it was proven not to be Russian disinformation.



JUST IN - Zuckerberg regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration to censor Covid era information online.

Source https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1828208501925257631?s=12&t=fx2RmsbaS0qNJTJTdpNu2w

Does this imply that Zuckerburg and Facebook has acknowledge this mistake to protect themselves because they speculate that Trump might win the election?

[stompix]

~

I mean think about it, only once in the last 30+ years that they won, 32 or 33 years I believe, so we are talking about republican party literally gone. No congress, no senators, no presidents, while that may or may not be fair, it's clear that they would become a country that is ruled by democrats.

And so be it, if they are stupid to focus only on winning the election and are completely ignoring the entire country just to secure the middle and the southern voters, it's their fault. Since you mentioned 30+ years, who's fault for that is but their own?
The record in difference in the popular vote is held by Republicans, Nixon and Reagan, they won the votes by over 17 and 16 million votes, what changed? The stupidness of focusing on the wrong things and having the wrong candidate.
Put a man like Reagan in charge of the republican party now and he would swipe the floor with all the democrats put together.

I am not saying it's fair, I am just saying that they wanted equal chances, give the republicans a fighting chance, that's why they did it.

Neah, it's not about that, the system has been in place for a long time when there were no Democrats or Republicans, it's an old system that is pretty stupid, its time has passed and the US should drop it like other countries that had one France had this garbage, Argentina had it but they all realized it needs to change.
Unfortunately, I gave change as much chance as changing a race of 2 miles 7 furlongs and 58 yards to 4700 meters. 

Back to betting, money coming for Trump on polymarket

[STT]

Its dead 50/50 me also at this moment because of the great difference between the two candidates from every perspective.   Not just the vast difference in politics and policy, but gender, age the attitude and hopes of either is very different.

  It makes it interesting at least, Harris isnt even that young but the generation gap might as well be the grand canyon.  Trump has the stance of a post ww2 president and Harris is on the total flip side doing Tik Tok dances trying to get the youth vote.   The youngest voters just arent reliable as a voting base, Harris will need to win every demographic to get in; if I see her as too reliant on sub 30 voters I will expect a loss.

the US is the last democratic country using this system,

This electoral college system is never going to change while USA remains the USA.  Its done for the very important reason of unity across a country the size of a continent, its just too vast to have it as merely a popular vote and no other adjustment.   To alter this system would lose the coherence of various fairly large states within the union and nobody is going to take that risk while either side can win it which is usually true.

[Hispo]

Its dead 50/50 me also at this moment because of the great difference between the two candidates from every perspective.   Not just the vast difference in politics and policy, but gender, age the attitude and hopes of either is very different.

  It makes it interesting at least, Harris isnt even that young but the generation gap might as well be the grand canyon.  Trump has the stance of a post ww2 president and Harris is on the total flip side doing Tik Tok dances trying to get the youth vote.   The youngest voters just arent reliable as a voting base, Harris will need to win every demographic to get in; if I see her as too reliant on sub 30 voters I will expect a loss.

Honestly, one of the reasons I think Trump managed to win the presidency back in 2016, was because how his political propaganda and future management of government was translated to memes and jokes which were all around the internet and appealed very young voters. I recall there was this meme about voting for Trump because he was going to be anime real, and algo having anime characters wearing the MAGA hat.


Source: https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Donald-Meme_MRZ5710-Mobile-Plastic-iPhone/dp/B08CHKQC6Q

So even if Trump could not easily relate to young voter by his own, there was people within his campaign who was intelligent enough to start spread those kinds of memes all over the internet and appealed to anime fans and young people who liked anime. It was obvious Trump was not capable of making anime real, but for them it was the first contact they had to Trump's policies and to him as a politician.

People is not supposed to underestimate the effectiveness of those kinds of campaigns which in the end, helped Trump to win over Hillary. If Kamalas team was clever enough, they would have already pulled something similar off for them to appeal the youngest voters, but with no cringe.

[bbc.reporter]

There is a news update being shared in social media mentioning that Mark Zuckerburg who everyone know already is the CEO of Facebook has declared that he regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration in working with to censor information on the coronavirus in his social media platform.

It appears in this letter Zuckerburg has admitted that Facebook was pressured by the government to censor content and they also admitted to stop the circulation of the story about Biden's family and Burisma after it was proven not to be Russian disinformation.



JUST IN - Zuckerberg regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration to censor Covid era information online.

Source https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1828208501925257631?s=12&t=fx2RmsbaS0qNJTJTdpNu2w

Does this imply that Zuckerburg and Facebook has acknowledge this mistake to protect themselves because they speculate that Trump might win the election?

Another additional argument on this speculation that Mark Zuckerburg might have some certainty that Trump might win the election is he is the owner of a big social media platform. He might be analysing the engagement behaviors of the people in Facebook and the company might be have discovered a revelation that there is more positive engagement on Trump than there is for Kamala Harris hehehe. I will certainly be not shocked if this is true.

Back to betting, money coming for Trump on polymarket

On betting, there is a Trumpcoin that might be a better bet because it can give a better prize after the pump than 50% in Polymarket hehehehehe.

[alani123]

Something crazy is happening. After RFK endorsing Trump, he had also said he would remove his name from ballots in states where the election would be a tossup so he could help Trump.

The issue at hand is that largely many election commissions are controlled by Democrat cronies, so now that RFK developed a strategy to help Trump, they will do anything they can to block him. Michigan and Wisconsin election commissions have already blocked RFK's demand to remove his name from the ballot. How fucking crazy is that!? A man can't even remove his name from the ballots at his own volition, they would only do it if it served Biden's interests I guess. I fail to see how that can be a thing in a functioning democracy.

[stompix]

On betting, there is a Trumpcoin that might be a better bet because it can give a better prize after the pump than 50% in Polymarket hehehehehe.

Which one?
I doubt it's the first one that coinmarketcap says:

pretty rare to see  100% drop in value!

Maga is down 81%
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/maga/

And his other project is god knows what cause the only thing he does is change the name, Defiant Ones, World Liberty,  I don't even know what's the current name. The only thing that is certain is that he has forgotten everything about Bitcoin. I can't wait for the launch of that stuff, I'm 1001% sure he will say something about creating a better coin than anything, something better than Bitcoin to make crypto great again!

Its done for the very important reason of unity across a country the size of a continent, its just too vast to have it as merely a popular vote and no other adjustment.   To alter this system would lose the coherence of various fairly large states within the union and nobody is going to take that risk while either side can win it which is usually true.

There are countries with just as huge a population as the US, far more diverse, spread over more different territories, with less national cohesion and they can still do it. If Indonesia with its thousands of islands, multiple autonomous regions, hundreds of ethnicities can then it would be no problem for the US either.

Michigan and Wisconsin election commissions have already blocked RFK's demand to remove his name from the ballot. How fucking crazy is that!?

It's state law, once you've been granted ballot access you will not be removed from it, unless you die!
https://casetext.com/statute/wisconsin-statutes/elections/chapter-8-nominations-primaries-elections/section-835-vacancies-after-nomination

(1) Any person who files nomination papers and qualifies to appear on the ballot may not decline nomination. The name of that person shall appear upon the ballot except in case of death of the person. A person who is appointed to fill a vacancy in nomination or who is nominated by write-in votes is deemed to decline nomination if he or she fails to file a declaration of candidacy within the time prescribed under sub. (2) (c) or s. 8.16(2).

Surprisingly everyone knew that for a century but RFK!

[cabron]

Something crazy is happening. After RFK endorsing Trump, he had also said he would remove his name from ballots in states where the election would be a tossup so he could help Trump.

The issue at hand is that largely many election commissions are controlled by Democrat cronies, so now that RFK developed a strategy to help Trump, they will do anything they can to block him. Michigan and Wisconsin election commissions have already blocked RFK's demand to remove his name from the ballot. How fucking crazy is that!? A man can't even remove his name from the ballots at his own volition, they would only do it if it served Biden's interests I guess. I fail to see how that can be a thing in a functioning democracy.

You can already tell they conspire to put Harris as the President as right now she even took over that seat already. RFK will likely be making campaigns also if he wants Trump to win.

I read that there will be no debate between the two Kamal vs Trump debate will never happen. This should have been a good platform for Trump to advance in the race. It would have been a big point if Trump pointed out that Kamala is the "border czar".

[Sithara007]

You can already tell they conspire to put Harris as the President as right now she even took over that seat already. RFK will likely be making campaigns also if he wants Trump to win.

I read that there will be no debate between the two Kamal vs Trump debate will never happen. This should have been a good platform for Trump to advance in the race. It would have been a big point if Trump pointed out that Kamala is the "border czar".

Kamala is leading in some of the polls and she feels that if she wants to keep the momentum ongoing, then she need to stay away from potential blunders. Trump has excellent communication skills and he will destroy Kamala if he is being given an even platform or a level playing field. And Kamala knows this. She will agree to debate Trump under extremely biased terms and conditions and this won't be acceptable for Trump. And then the mainstream media will accuse Trump of running away from the debate.

[Hispo]

I read that there will be no debate between the two Kamal vs Trump debate will never happen. This should have been a good platform for Trump to advance in the race. It would have been a big point if Trump pointed out that Kamala is the "border czar".

Interestingly enough, I believe Trump does not even want the debate between him and Kamala to ever happen, because it would be likely a disaster to him being confronted by someone who is more mentally agile and can actually fact check him live on national Television, unlike Joe Biden.
At this point I would be expecting Trump do make any excuse possible for him not to show up at the debate and continue the presidential campaign by addressing Kamala from far away, calling her names and belittle her, not know that each time he does that, he is pushing female voters away and making the race easier for Harris.
Venen Newsmax and Fox "News" have called out Trump's language on Harris and suggested him to tone down the name-calling.
Anyways, if a debate indeed takes place,.I will undoubtly take note at the change of the odds and prepare my budget to bet in favor of Kamala or Trump.