smooth
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October 19, 2015, 07:51:45 AM |
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Nothing justifies 20-30% drop per day. No sane investor s gonna sell that way.
Buy orders have dropped to 35 BTC cause no single sane person s going to buy having in mind his actions.
You seem to be saying that at the current price it would be insane to sell and also insane to buy. How do you feel about holding? ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Nah, I m saying exactly what I stated. I m saying the whale s not sane cause he could earn much more if he opted to sell lower amounts over prolonged period of time. This way he would be able to get 5x higher price per CLAM he gets now. That s no sane IMHO. The fact he does not do that supports my theory he s not going to stop until he completely kills CLAM. I am also saying no other sane investor would place a buy order now knowing he the digger whale s going to keep dumping and dumping. Would you buy anything now? Every single trade has someone buying. People are betting that this is indeed the bottom, and they stand to make nice gains from here. You apparently disagree. Have you sold all your CLAMs (if nothing else to rebuy lower)?
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crazyivan
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October 19, 2015, 09:20:08 AM Last edit: October 19, 2015, 11:02:04 AM by crazyivan |
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Nothing justifies 20-30% drop per day. No sane investor s gonna sell that way.
Buy orders have dropped to 35 BTC cause no single sane person s going to buy having in mind his actions.
You seem to be saying that at the current price it would be insane to sell and also insane to buy. How do you feel about holding? ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Nah, I m saying exactly what I stated. I m saying the whale s not sane cause he could earn much more if he opted to sell lower amounts over prolonged period of time. This way he would be able to get 5x higher price per CLAM he gets now. That s no sane IMHO. The fact he does not do that supports my theory he s not going to stop until he completely kills CLAM. I am also saying no other sane investor would place a buy order now knowing he the digger whale s going to keep dumping and dumping. Would you buy anything now? Every single trade has someone buying. People are betting that this is indeed the bottom, and they stand to make nice gains from here. You apparently disagree. Have you sold all your CLAMs (if nothing else to rebuy lower)? Yes, I did sell most of it a few days ago and I do intent to re-buy again if there s some kind of solution for the problem available. I still do hold some and I have my buy orders set at a specific price, in case of some form or rebound. That s the usual trading tactics although I m not a trader. I prefer staking. But this is not about me, there are significantly larger holder around. About every single trade having someone buying, that s true. However, whoever s buying now s extremely inexperienced and will lose money. We will see 0.0001 before next Monday if he continues to dump.
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galtbit
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October 19, 2015, 10:52:25 AM Last edit: October 19, 2015, 11:40:14 AM by galtbit |
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I agree with crazyivan. The developers need to do something now. Thank you dooglas and others for helping me to start digging and having some fun while it lasted. I dug, bought, sold and bought. For now, I am out. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.niveza.in%2Fmarket-news%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F05%2Ffalling-knife.jpg&t=665&c=7VK7LBLrdVXlZw)
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J. J. Phillips
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October 19, 2015, 12:24:13 PM |
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it's rational to want to do something about the situation. To remove digging altogether would remove Clams' best and unique feature, so it is not a reasonable option. As Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies have built-in reductions in their distribution methods, I believe it is reasonable to propose reducing dig rewards to half at (about) 1.5 years from the release of Clams, and continue to halve the dig reward every 1.5 years from now on. I'm not a programmer, but I imagine reducing the dig reward could be done by imposing a 50% (and later 75% and so on) fee on transactions from the original distribution outputs that gets paid to a burn address. Assuming the software is ready to go, this can be announced a month or so ahead of the fork to make things fair for everyone, including the large digger.
I also feel that something should be done, if CLAM is to remain something that people want to use. The current massive ongoing dig appears to be worth something like 500k CLAMs, and started when the active supply was something like twice that, and so it will end up adding 50% to the active supply. Note that although it appears significant, that 500k CLAMs represents only around 3% of the initial distribution. There is another 12 million CLAMs out there still waiting to be dug up. There is no guarantee that the current 500k CLAM dig is the last big dig, or even the biggest one. There are very likely huge numbers of CLAMs waiting to be dug from other old wallets - think of the MtGox wallet, the SilkRoad mixer wallet, various other mixing services and other black market sites, BTC-e, satoshidice, and many others. So while it's possible that we get through this current dig and still have some investors brave enough to hold CLAM throughout, will they stick around the next time it happens, or the time after that? I'm inclined to support the opinion of dooglus that something needs to be done. If it were to come down to some kind of a vote, the clamspeech part of staking txs could be used. (I say this as someone who stakes.) Here's another idea to put on the table. Maybe digging could be slowed down in some way. For example, a coin from a block before X (where X is when the initial distribution stopped) can only be spent in a tx that stakes the coin. This would place a limit on the velocity of digging without actually taking away the ability to dig the coin.
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If Israel is destroyed, I will devote the rest of my life to the extermination of the human species. Any species that goes down this road again less than 100 years after the holocaust needs to be fucking wiped out. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Affair_of_the_Gang_of_BarbariansIlan Halimi: tortured and murdered in France by barbarian Jew haters who'd be very comfortable here at bitcointalk.
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KhalDrago
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October 19, 2015, 12:32:41 PM |
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seems like clam is done, not much backing.
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SuperClam (OP)
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October 19, 2015, 12:58:47 PM |
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it's rational to want to do something about the situation. To remove digging altogether would remove Clams' best and unique feature, so it is not a reasonable option. As Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies have built-in reductions in their distribution methods, I believe it is reasonable to propose reducing dig rewards to half at (about) 1.5 years from the release of Clams, and continue to halve the dig reward every 1.5 years from now on. I'm not a programmer, but I imagine reducing the dig reward could be done by imposing a 50% (and later 75% and so on) fee on transactions from the original distribution outputs that gets paid to a burn address. Assuming the software is ready to go, this can be announced a month or so ahead of the fork to make things fair for everyone, including the large digger.
I also feel that something should be done, if CLAM is to remain something that people want to use. The current massive ongoing dig appears to be worth something like 500k CLAMs, and started when the active supply was something like twice that, and so it will end up adding 50% to the active supply. Note that although it appears significant, that 500k CLAMs represents only around 3% of the initial distribution. There is another 12 million CLAMs out there still waiting to be dug up. There is no guarantee that the current 500k CLAM dig is the last big dig, or even the biggest one. There are very likely huge numbers of CLAMs waiting to be dug from other old wallets - think of the MtGox wallet, the SilkRoad mixer wallet, various other mixing services and other black market sites, BTC-e, satoshidice, and many others. So while it's possible that we get through this current dig and still have some investors brave enough to hold CLAM throughout, will they stick around the next time it happens, or the time after that? I'm inclined to support the opinion of dooglus that something needs to be done. If it were to come down to some kind of a vote, the clamspeech part of staking txs could be used. (I say this as someone who stakes.) Here's another idea to put on the table. Maybe digging could be slowed down in some way. For example, a coin from a block before X (where X is when the initial distribution stopped) can only be spent in a tx that stakes the coin. This would place a limit on the velocity of digging without actually taking away the ability to dig the coin. With the current difficulty, a single 4.6 CLAM output/claim would be likely to take a great deal of time for a user to "claim". So much time, in fact, that it may not even be economical to do so. An alternative might be to give undug CLAM additional weight and chance to stake. This would make the process of claiming more likely, but still limit digs overall. This is, however, probably not fair to existing stakers. To make it more fair, the block reward could be removed from digging stakes. This would mean that undug CLAMs would not give a 1 CLAM reward when staked. This, however, would be a change to the money supply/inflation. An alternative might be to attribute "missed" stakes, due to claiming stakes, to normal stakers either at the next block, or into a pool/window spread out over subsequent stakes.
That would leave us with a situation where unclaimed CLAM have additional weight to stake more quickly, but are still limited based on current difficulty and the block time. When unclaimed CLAM stake, they would not give a reward, but instead add their 1 CLAM reward into a pool. When normal blocks are staked, that pool would be apportioned out. Not sure how I feel about this idea - interested to hear what dooglus, xploited, and the rest of the gang think. It is definitely more simple than the idea I outlined yesterday; though without some of the additional advantages. Will give it some thought.
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chilly2k
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October 19, 2015, 01:11:37 PM |
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seems like clam is done, not much backing.
Glad you weighed in. I was waiting for your comment.... ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) On Poloniex Clams has 67 BTC in buy support. LTC only has 44 BTC. Does that mean LTC is done too? I don't mean to start a debate on the virtues of LTC, but just to point out the flaws in his assumption that Clams has no backing.
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SuperClam (OP)
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October 19, 2015, 01:13:37 PM |
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seems like clam is done, not much backing.
Glad you weighed in. I was waiting for your comment.... ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) On Poloniex Clams has 67 BTC in buy support. LTC only has 44 BTC. Does that mean LTC is done too? I don't mean to start a debate on the virtues of LTC, but just to point out the flaws in his assumption that Clams has no backing. Indeed. If you don't have something productive, useful or at least reasoned to say; keep it to yourself.
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ziomar
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October 19, 2015, 01:32:08 PM |
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seems like clam is done, not much backing.
Glad you weighed in. I was waiting for your comment.... ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) On Poloniex Clams has 67 BTC in buy support. LTC only has 44 BTC. Does that mean LTC is done too? I don't mean to start a debate on the virtues of LTC, but just to point out the flaws in his assumption that Clams has no backing. Indeed. If you don't have something productive, useful or at least reasoned to say; keep it to yourself. High volume is not necessary a good sign. Specially when the price loose more than 30% evry day. It means people is abbandoning the sinking boat. I hope I'm wrong
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chilly2k
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October 19, 2015, 01:34:26 PM |
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it's rational to want to do something about the situation. To remove digging altogether would remove Clams' best and unique feature, so it is not a reasonable option. As Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies have built-in reductions in their distribution methods, I believe it is reasonable to propose reducing dig rewards to half at (about) 1.5 years from the release of Clams, and continue to halve the dig reward every 1.5 years from now on. I'm not a programmer, but I imagine reducing the dig reward could be done by imposing a 50% (and later 75% and so on) fee on transactions from the original distribution outputs that gets paid to a burn address. Assuming the software is ready to go, this can be announced a month or so ahead of the fork to make things fair for everyone, including the large digger.
I also feel that something should be done, if CLAM is to remain something that people want to use. The current massive ongoing dig appears to be worth something like 500k CLAMs, and started when the active supply was something like twice that, and so it will end up adding 50% to the active supply. Note that although it appears significant, that 500k CLAMs represents only around 3% of the initial distribution. There is another 12 million CLAMs out there still waiting to be dug up. There is no guarantee that the current 500k CLAM dig is the last big dig, or even the biggest one. There are very likely huge numbers of CLAMs waiting to be dug from other old wallets - think of the MtGox wallet, the SilkRoad mixer wallet, various other mixing services and other black market sites, BTC-e, satoshidice, and many others. So while it's possible that we get through this current dig and still have some investors brave enough to hold CLAM throughout, will they stick around the next time it happens, or the time after that? I'm inclined to support the opinion of dooglus that something needs to be done. If it were to come down to some kind of a vote, the clamspeech part of staking txs could be used. (I say this as someone who stakes.) Here's another idea to put on the table. Maybe digging could be slowed down in some way. For example, a coin from a block before X (where X is when the initial distribution stopped) can only be spent in a tx that stakes the coin. This would place a limit on the velocity of digging without actually taking away the ability to dig the coin. With the current difficulty, a single 4.6 CLAM output/claim would be likely to take a great deal of time for a user to "claim". So much time, in fact, that it may not even be economical to do so. An alternative might be to give undug CLAM additional weight and chance to stake. This would make the process of claiming more likely, but still limit digs overall. This is, however, probably not fair to existing stakers. To make it more fair, the block reward could be removed from digging stakes. This would mean that undug CLAMs would not give a 1 CLAM reward when staked. This, however, would be a change to the money supply/inflation. An alternative might be to attribute "missed" stakes, due to claiming stakes, to normal stakers either at the next block, or into a pool/window spread out over subsequent stakes.
That would leave us with a situation where unclaimed CLAM have additional weight to stake more quickly, but are still limited based on current difficulty and the block time. When unclaimed CLAM stake, they would not give a reward, but instead add their 1 CLAM reward into a pool. When normal blocks are staked, that pool would be apportioned out. Not sure how I feel about this idea - interested to hear what dooglus, xploited, and the rest of the gang think. It is definitely more simple than the idea I outlined yesterday; though without some of the additional advantages. Will give it some thought. Everything being discussed is a reaction to the current market situation. IE the price getting dumped. If the digger was instead the stake-er, and JD lost half it staking power, we would be having a different discussion. Or if someone hit a max bet on JD and now had 200K clams to dump on the market, limiting digging isn't going to matter much. Clams have so far proved to be pretty resilient. We had the LTC digger in the Dec-Jan time frame. Price dropped, but then rebounded. The large investor that decided Clams were not for him. Dumped 30K on the market on the Mar - Apr time. The price dipped a little and then rebounded. For awhile the digger seemed to be happy with the .0045 - .005 price. Recently there were a series of events that caused the price to crash. A regular player on just-dice had a BIG win. 39K clams. In the weeks before the same guy had a few other bigs hit's and cashed out several thousand clams at market prices. When people saw his win there was a panic that he would dump all 39K on the market and crash the price, so people starting selling out to cut their losses. Now my theory is the digger is not following Just-dice, or BTC talk. He sees the price start to collapse, so he started unloading as fast as he could, and kept the collapse going. We seem to be leveling out at around .002. This could go either way. In summary, even if you somehow limit digging, you can't prevent market dumping.
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smooth
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October 19, 2015, 01:40:52 PM |
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Note that although it appears significant, that 500k CLAMs represents only around 3% of the initial distribution. There is another 12 million CLAMs out there still waiting to be dug up. There is no guarantee that the current 500k CLAM dig is the last big dig, or even the biggest one. If CLAM aspires to be a major coin (say top 10-20) then 12 million unclaimed CLAMs is not an obstacle to doing so. At the current price that puts the fully-claimed market cap at a relatively modest $6 million. If CLAM is just going to be a house coin on one altcoin gambling site, then it probably can't get to $6 million market cap and you should probably just do whatever you want with it, since you run the only major economic actor that matters to the coin anyway. So while it's possible that we get through this current dig and still have some investors brave enough to hold CLAM throughout, will they stick around the next time it happens, or the time after that? There will always be investors at some price, just as there are now. Maybe what happened here is that the market was irrationally exuberant and got ahead of itself. Surely everyone knew that there were 12 million more coins out there. People either believed (without a strong basis for believing) that those coins would nearly all stay buried for a good long time, or that sufficient market demand existed to absorb coins that were going to be dug up. That turned out to be wrong. Investors adjusted to more realistic expectations (and perhaps continue to adjust). There is no rational basis to say that the current price with a $6 million fully-claimed market cap is too low, at the current stage of development of this coin and community. It may even still be too high, and people investing need to really think this through for themselves, but at some price there will be investors, as long as anyone is still using the coin. While I'm intrigued by the idea of staking to claim and perhaps slowing down the rate somewhat (and also somewhat with storage fees), I largely agree with chilly2k that trying to dictate a market price or market behavior is foolish.
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crazyivan
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October 19, 2015, 01:52:59 PM |
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Note that although it appears significant, that 500k CLAMs represents only around 3% of the initial distribution. There is another 12 million CLAMs out there still waiting to be dug up. There is no guarantee that the current 500k CLAM dig is the last big dig, or even the biggest one. If CLAM aspires to be a major coin (say top 10-20) then 12 million unclaimed CLAMs is not an obstacle to doing so. At the current price that puts the fully-claimed market cap at a relatively modest $6 million. If CLAM is just going to be a house coin on one altcoin gambling site, then it probably can't get to $6 million market cap and you should probably just do whatever you want with it, since you run the only major economic actor that matters to the coin anyway. So while it's possible that we get through this current dig and still have some investors brave enough to hold CLAM throughout, will they stick around the next time it happens, or the time after that? There will always be investors at some price, just as there are now. Maybe what happened here is that the market was irrationally exuberant and got ahead of itself. Surely everyone knew that there were 12 million more coins out there. People either believed (without a strong basis for believing) that those coins would nearly all stay buried for a good long time, or that sufficient market demand existed to absorb coins that were going to be dug up. That turned out to be wrong. Investors adjusted to more realistic expectations (and perhaps continue to adjust). There is no rational basis to say that the current price with a $6 million fully-claimed market cap is too low, at the current stage of development of this coin and community. It may even still be too high, and people investing need to really think this through for themselves, but at some price there will be investors, as long as anyone is still using the coin. While I'm intrigued by the idea of staking to claim and perhaps slowing down the rate somewhat (and also somewhat with storage fees), I largely agree with chilly2k that trying to dictate a market price or market behavior is foolish. What you seem to forget is that we re not talking about market price and normal PoS supply and demand. What we have here is an external element able to get his hands on hundreds of thousands of free CLAM and dump them immediately. Let me repeat, FREE CLAM. It s like having a central bank monitoring supply of money in the economy and suddenly we have a person making fake bills and placing them into the system. The result is over inflation which would bring the value of the currency down. Any central bank would react in a way to prevent inflow of this external money to stabilize the market and this is what I think devs should do. Cause the demand for CLAM cannot match the supply this guy can send to the market, so we actually talk about market failure, to use proper terminology, a very inefficient allocation of resources, except for the digger. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) ) FFS, he has just destroyed a 10k clam buy order. I have no idea why would any fool set this buy order ATM but that fool s going to lose money by this time tomorrow. ATM, I talk only as a CLAM supporter, I have sold all my coins today and I m here not as an investor anymore but just as a CLAM aficionado.
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SuperClam (OP)
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October 19, 2015, 02:03:25 PM |
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FFS, he has just destroyed a 10k clam buy order. I have no idea why would any fool set this buy order ATM but that fool s going to lose money by this time tomorrow.
Based on the debug and the chain, they don't appear to be digging at the moment..... They don't dig constantly; but, more periodically it seems. Far too much is being attributed to this digger, when much of it is third-parties making market bets.
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smooth
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October 19, 2015, 02:08:04 PM |
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What you seem to forget is that we re not talking about market price and normal PoS supply and demand. What we have here is an external element able to get his hands on hundreds of thousands of free CLAM and dump them immediately. It isn't an external element. It is internal to the CLAM blockchain, and it has been there all along, even if investors for a time foolishly chose to ignore it. Did you claim your "free" CLAMs? Why was your claim any more legitimate or less "external" than anyone else's? Far too much is being attributed to this digger, when much of it is third-parties making market bets Agree. For one thing dooglus has already told us that he has been dumping. That's clearly his right, as they are his coins, but it has an effect on the market nevertheless. For another, has anyone considered that perhaps all this talk about impairing or (less likely) eliminating a big part of the USP of CLAMs is potentially spooking the market? And finally I agree that the recent big wins on JD have also likely spooked investors. The first big win was bought by dooglus so that saved the market from a big dump (though maybe dumped by him now?). The second big win was promptly donated back to the JD investors, sparing the market from another big dump. But maybe investors have wisely recognized that their luck will eventually run out and sooner or later someone will win big at JD and actually want to sell their coins (not to dooglus) to buy a car or something.
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crazyivan
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October 19, 2015, 02:19:35 PM |
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What you seem to forget is that we re not talking about market price and normal PoS supply and demand. What we have here is an external element able to get his hands on hundreds of thousands of free CLAM and dump them immediately. It isn't an external element. It is internal to the CLAM blockchain, and it has been there all along, even if investors for a time foolishly chose to ignore it. Did you claim your "free" CLAMs? Why was your claim any more legitimate or less "external" than anyone else's? Far too much is being attributed to this digger, when much of it is third-parties making market bets Agree. For one thing dooglus has already told us that he has been dumping. That's clearly his right, as they are his coins, but it has an effect on the market nevertheless. For another, has anyone considered that perhaps all this talk about impairing or (less likely) eliminating a big part of the USP of CLAMs is potentially spooking the market? And finally I agree that the recent big wins on JD have also likely spooked investors. The first big win was bought by dooglus so that saved the market from a big dump (though maybe dumped by him now?). The second big win was promptly donated back to the JD investors, sparing the market from another big dump. But maybe investors have wisely recognized that their luck will eventually run out and sooner or later someone will win big at JD and actually want to sell their coins (not to dooglus) to buy a car or something. I have not claimed a single free CLAM. I purchased every single CLAM I used to own. What I am saying is that free CLAM cannot be considered as a market element cause he s got them for free. There s no single comparable element in crypto. You need to spend money to mine BTC or other crypto, you need to spend money to buy coins to stake them, you need to invest some form or resource to generate income. With this CLAM, you get something for NOTHING. This is why the market s inefficient and this is why it s got all preconditions to fail. I really, really hope I m wrong about this.
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NUFCrichard
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October 19, 2015, 02:24:51 PM |
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Clams are certainly starting to look cheap. The digger can't have an unlimited supply, and if he is stupid enough to sell regardless what the price is, then buyers should see an opportunity at some point. I bought low and sold high last time, though no where near the lows or the highs. I bought in again at 0.06, but think I will go for more soon if the price keeps falling.
I agree that the digger is overrated in importance, that people are scared and getting out only accelerates the price fall, 1 person doesn't make the market (unless it is Just Dice!)
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smooth
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October 19, 2015, 02:34:42 PM |
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There s no single comparable element in crypto.
Yes that's why I called it a USP.
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xamido
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October 19, 2015, 02:36:20 PM |
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Actually it's combination of the digger and people shorting. If you check poloniex lending, there's almost no clam left to borrow. Basically everyone is shorting. If only this coin have people with a lot of btc he can push the price up and force liquidation on these shorter.
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crazyivan
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October 19, 2015, 02:51:14 PM |
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Clams are certainly starting to look cheap. The digger can't have an unlimited supply, and if he is stupid enough to sell regardless what the price is, then buyers should see an opportunity at some point. I bought low and sold high last time, though no where near the lows or the highs. I bought in again at 0.06, but think I will go for more soon if the price keeps falling.
I agree that the digger is overrated in importance, that people are scared and getting out only accelerates the price fall, 1 person doesn't make the market (unless it is Just Dice!)
Overrated in importance? Cause of him, the price went down from 0.014 in mid August to 0.002 ATM. You can calculate %. No single coin has suffered that crash over 90 days period unless there s something seriously wrong it and unless the devs name is Homero Garza. I hold 7 different PoS coins and none of them has suffered even close price drop. The only difference is the digger. So yes, I would say, he s big time important for CLAM. With him in the game, there s no CLAM. Remember, 0.0001 by next Monday, just watch.
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chriswen
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October 19, 2015, 03:09:02 PM |
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@Crazyivan, did you know you can borrow almost 2000 CLAMS on poloniex for 60 days at an interest rate of 2% a day. If you really think it's going to drop another 50% this week then you'll be able to double your bitcoins, risk free. I'm saying risk free because you seem 100% certain.
@xamido , these are just current stats. How much was available for shorting before?
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