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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807093 times)
the joint
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May 18, 2012, 05:55:04 AM
 #1381

1.)  Ok.  If his time frame is "many months to years," then we can't possibly assume that anything that has happened in the past 2 months since this thread's creation is positive correlated with his prediction.

2.)  Fair enough.  As I said, I only read a few pages of this thread.  I understand this makes for uninformed assumptions, but he killed all of my motivation to go back and read it all.  He shouldn't feel bad about this, though.  I'm cocky and stubborn myself so I understand where he's coming from.

3.)  Fair enough.  Time will tell.  I do genuinely hope that he is correct for his own sake and for his subscribers'.

4.)  Rocketing?  That's going overboard.  Rocketing since when?  Gold 'rocketed' 2% overnight.  It's also 'rocketed' ~800% in the last decade.  Besides, if he's speaking from a long-term perspective, that perspective would also indicate that the US dollar has been falling like a brick.  Rocketing in this case is from a short-term perspective.

5.)  True, it doesn't make him wrong.  But I would suggest that it is more likely to make him wrong than if he were not a stakeholder.

1) Not sure what you mean.  Can you rephrase?
2-3) Nothing to add.
4) That's more my wording than his.  It has been rising for 14 days straight, the longest streak since 1985.  IMO, we will see more rising than falling over the next 8-12 months.  Apple also 'rocketed' over 5500% in the last decade, Bitcoin rocketed several thousand percent last year.  Apple is down 17% from its peak and Bitcoin is down 84% from its peak.  Even with it's counter-trend rally today gold is down 17% from it's peak.  What goes up must come down, especially when it is pumped up with QE.  Now that the free money is drying up, who's going to buy?
5) I would disagree with that.  If he were not a stakeholder he would pay far less attention.

1)  I'm saying the following:  Cypherdoc is claiming/predicting two general things, that 1) there will be an inverse correlation between Bitcoin and gold, specifically that Bitcoin will go up and gold will go down and that 2) this will demonstrated within a time frame of "many months to years."  However, since it has only been two months, there simply is not enough data available to validate his predictions to this point.  

So, as a hypothetical example, let's say Cyperdoc has correctly predicted the direction that the gold and/or Bitcoin markets would go every day with 75% accuracy for two months straight.  He could point and say, "Look!  I've been right 75% of the time, so it appears I know what I'm talking about, and thus my predictions for the future are likely valid and yadda yadda."  And, it is true that this would make most anyone (myself included) admire his predictive ability.  But, this should be viewed with caution because now he has introduced a new time-frame that does not correspond to his initial predictive time-frame, and the two cannot be reasonably compared.  I misspoke when I said "can't possibly assume...[a positive correlation]," but rather I should have said "can only assume a weak correlation."

Basically, the point boils down to something ridiculously simple that everyone already knows -- that we don't have data from the future.  Now, if Cypherdoc gave a specific time-frame for his prediction of 6-12 months (again, for example), then we'd have something to work with.  But "many months to years" covers one hell of a lot of ground.  If he has been correct 75% of the time for 2 months, then it would be reasonable to assume that his overarching prediction will be at least somewhat on target if the predictive window is to last for only 6-12 months.  But, again, "many months to years" covers a lot of ground.  If we expand this predictive window to 20 years, then being 75% correct for 2 months doesn't really mean much of anything.  This is why I still maintain his thread title is dubious even with the "many months to years" timeline because it removes perspective from the things he is currently saying.  Essentially, he's saying that this inverse correlation is going to manifest itself "sometime," but when and to what degree, nobody knows.

2-4)  OK

5)  Depends on which is more immediately profitable to him, important to him, etc....his subscription service or his investments.

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May 18, 2012, 06:22:27 AM
 #1382

...
5.)  True, it doesn't make him wrong.  But I would suggest that it is more likely to make him wrong than if he were not a stakeholder.

...
5) I would disagree with that.  If he were not a stakeholder he would pay far less attention.

...
5)  Depends on which is more immediately profitable to him, important to him, etc....his subscription service or his investments.

Most brokers probably burn there books at least once in their careers.  If you've got a muppet army and are working in such a thin market as Bitcoin where an opportunity to swing it might pop up, why not?  Coordinate with Waveaddict and S#### and you could probably make a (veritable) killing.


molecular
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May 18, 2012, 10:10:32 AM
 #1383

Basically, the point boils down to something ridiculously simple that everyone already knows -- that we don't have data from the future.  Now, if Cypherdoc gave a specific time-frame for his prediction of 6-12 months (again, for example), then we'd have something to work with.  But "many months to years" covers one hell of a lot of ground.

how many years cypherdoc? Are you willing to put a maximum time? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

That way, this thread could be closed at some point in the future Wink. "many months to years" is just too open-ended to ever call your "prediction" right or wrong.

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cypherdoc
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May 18, 2012, 11:33:11 AM
 #1384

Basically, the point boils down to something ridiculously simple that everyone already knows -- that we don't have data from the future.  Now, if Cypherdoc gave a specific time-frame for his prediction of 6-12 months (again, for example), then we'd have something to work with.  But "many months to years" covers one hell of a lot of ground.

how many years cypherdoc? Are you willing to put a maximum time? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

That way, this thread could be closed at some point in the future Wink. "many months to years" is just too open-ended to ever call your "prediction" right or wrong.

Nice try.  I've already made my prediction time commitment in my Newsletter.  Sorry.
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May 18, 2012, 01:50:57 PM
 #1385

The herd lead into the slaughterhouse: Facebook European Premarket Bid - €58 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/facebook-european-premarket-bid-%E2%82%AC58

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
silverbox
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May 18, 2012, 02:44:58 PM
 #1386





Oh baby this just might be the day we've been waiting for!! Wink
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May 18, 2012, 02:56:21 PM
 #1387

...
5.)  True, it doesn't make him wrong.  But I would suggest that it is more likely to make him wrong than if he were not a stakeholder.

...
5) I would disagree with that.  If he were not a stakeholder he would pay far less attention.

...
5)  Depends on which is more immediately profitable to him, important to him, etc....his subscription service or his investments.

Most brokers probably burn there books at least once in their careers.  If you've got a muppet army and are working in such a thin market as Bitcoin where an opportunity to swing it might pop up, why not?  Coordinate with Waveaddict and S#### and you could probably make a (veritable) killing.



Except none of the subscription providers have a "muppet army".  In fact, when they all agree, price tends to move the other direction.  There are just as many sharks who subscribe as sheep.  The newsletters are merely indicators, and sometimes are contrarian when they are too one sided.

But good job judging that which you have no knowledge of.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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May 18, 2012, 03:00:40 PM
 #1388





Oh baby this just might be the day we've been waiting for!! Wink

thank gaud for you silverbox.  you're the only one on this thread that makes me happy!  Cheesy

hazek
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May 18, 2012, 03:05:32 PM
 #1389

Look at silver at $28

KABOOM and it's gone:



well almost  Grin

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

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molecular
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May 18, 2012, 03:45:17 PM
 #1390

Basically, the point boils down to something ridiculously simple that everyone already knows -- that we don't have data from the future.  Now, if Cypherdoc gave a specific time-frame for his prediction of 6-12 months (again, for example), then we'd have something to work with.  But "many months to years" covers one hell of a lot of ground.

how many years cypherdoc? Are you willing to put a maximum time? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

That way, this thread could be closed at some point in the future Wink. "many months to years" is just too open-ended to ever call your "prediction" right or wrong.

Nice try.  I've already made my prediction time commitment in my Newsletter.  Sorry.

Too bad my subscription ran out... it was fun while it lastet. I want to thank you here for an enjoyable month of interesting and plentiful updates Wink

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May 18, 2012, 03:53:07 PM
 #1391





Oh baby this just might be the day we've been waiting for!! Wink

can you say OOPS?
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May 18, 2012, 03:54:53 PM
 #1392

Basically, the point boils down to something ridiculously simple that everyone already knows -- that we don't have data from the future.  Now, if Cypherdoc gave a specific time-frame for his prediction of 6-12 months (again, for example), then we'd have something to work with.  But "many months to years" covers one hell of a lot of ground.

how many years cypherdoc? Are you willing to put a maximum time? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

That way, this thread could be closed at some point in the future Wink. "many months to years" is just too open-ended to ever call your "prediction" right or wrong.

Nice try.  I've already made my prediction time commitment in my Newsletter.  Sorry.

somewhere in this thread cypher called for gold to hit 400 in the next two to three years  iirc , I don't feel like diggin it out.
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May 18, 2012, 03:57:46 PM
 #1393

Basically, the point boils down to something ridiculously simple that everyone already knows -- that we don't have data from the future.  Now, if Cypherdoc gave a specific time-frame for his prediction of 6-12 months (again, for example), then we'd have something to work with.  But "many months to years" covers one hell of a lot of ground.

how many years cypherdoc? Are you willing to put a maximum time? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

That way, this thread could be closed at some point in the future Wink. "many months to years" is just too open-ended to ever call your "prediction" right or wrong.

Nice try.  I've already made my prediction time commitment in my Newsletter.  Sorry.

Too bad my subscription ran out... it was fun while it lastet. I want to thank you here for an enjoyable month of interesting and plentiful updates Wink

The Muppet Army shrinks by one.  Maybe it's time to implement a re-enlistment bonus?


the joint
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May 18, 2012, 05:47:02 PM
 #1394

Good thing I bought a little at $1529   Grin

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May 18, 2012, 06:01:39 PM
 #1395

Good thing I bought a little at $1529   Grin

What did you pay for it on a per ounce basis?

(In case you missed it, I bought a bit recently at around $1600 and paid around $1650.  A lot of us are interested in the difference between the 'paper price' and what it costs to get weight in our palms...and this factor shifts around.)


the joint
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May 18, 2012, 06:08:20 PM
 #1396

Good thing I bought a little at $1529   Grin

What did you pay for it on a per ounce basis?

(In case you missed it, I bought a bit recently at around $1600 and paid around $1650.  A lot of us are interested in the difference between the 'paper price' and what it costs to get weight in our palms...and this factor shifts around.)



I paid 2% over spot. 

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May 18, 2012, 06:09:30 PM
 #1397

Good thing I bought a little at $1529   Grin

What did you pay for it on a per ounce basis?

(In case you missed it, I bought a bit recently at around $1600 and paid around $1650.  A lot of us are interested in the difference between the 'paper price' and what it costs to get weight in our palms...and this factor shifts around.)



I paid 2% over spot. 

thats perfectly normal.  where's the disconnect?
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May 18, 2012, 06:12:05 PM
 #1398

Good thing I bought a little at $1529   Grin

What did you pay for it on a per ounce basis?

(In case you missed it, I bought a bit recently at around $1600 and paid around $1650.  A lot of us are interested in the difference between the 'paper price' and what it costs to get weight in our palms...and this factor shifts around.)


I paid 2% over spot. 

That's much better than I typically get even in the best of times.  Your dealer is good to you.  hopefully.


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May 18, 2012, 06:13:02 PM
 #1399

Good thing I bought a little at $1529   Grin

What did you pay for it on a per ounce basis?

(In case you missed it, I bought a bit recently at around $1600 and paid around $1650.  A lot of us are interested in the difference between the 'paper price' and what it costs to get weight in our palms...and this factor shifts around.)


I paid 2% over spot. 

That's much better than I typically get even in the best of times.  Your dealer is good to you.  hopefully.



thats b/c everyone is selling... Grin
the joint
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May 18, 2012, 06:17:24 PM
 #1400

Good thing I bought a little at $1529   Grin

What did you pay for it on a per ounce basis?

(In case you missed it, I bought a bit recently at around $1600 and paid around $1650.  A lot of us are interested in the difference between the 'paper price' and what it costs to get weight in our palms...and this factor shifts around.)


I paid 2% over spot. 

That's much better than I typically get even in the best of times.  Your dealer is good to you.  hopefully.



thats b/c everyone is selling... Grin

Or because it was an 18 year old kid at a local pawn shop.

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