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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804199 times)
tvbcof
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May 18, 2012, 06:18:37 PM
 #1401

Good thing I bought a little at $1529   Grin
What did you pay for it on a per ounce basis?

(In case you missed it, I bought a bit recently at around $1600 and paid around $1650.  A lot of us are interested in the difference between the 'paper price' and what it costs to get weight in our palms...and this factor shifts around.)
I paid 2% over spot. 
That's much better than I typically get even in the best of times.  Your dealer is good to you.  hopefully.
thats b/c everyone is selling... Grin

Hopefully that are selling Au and not W...and are delivering.  APMEX seems to want $1675 for a KR today.


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tvbcof
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May 18, 2012, 08:08:35 PM
 #1402


Except none of the subscription providers have a "muppet army".  In fact, when they all agree, price tends to move the other direction.  There are just as many sharks who subscribe as sheep.  The newsletters are merely indicators, and sometimes are contrarian when they are too one sided.


Wow!  Sounds valuable.  How have I survived so long without such an indispensable resource?  Where do I sign up Corporal Sockman?


miscreanity
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May 18, 2012, 09:18:08 PM
 #1403

The cracks are showing.

From this point going forward, no matter what the "official" gold price shows, the game is all in paper - i.e. imaginary. It is between the dollar and the Euro, the Aussie and the Loonie, the Swissie and the Yen. It applies to paper gold as well, which is no different than synthetic constructs like SDRs. They'll squabble amongst themselves while physical gold leads real assets onward and upward, completely disregarding the idiocy left behind.
silverbox
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May 18, 2012, 09:22:36 PM
 #1404

Keep on stacking!!

I think I might buy some silver, its looking partiuclarlly bullish..

I wonder if the GPL order page still lags the market..
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May 18, 2012, 09:25:23 PM
 #1405

apparently it either really lags it, or is very predictive of the future, or they just have a whale of a premium!!

http://store.greatpanther.com/p-7-one-ounce-silver-bar-ticker-symbols-reverse-10.aspx
silverbox
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May 18, 2012, 09:27:34 PM
 #1406

+20 more for shipping!! What a rip, lol..

35 per ounce after shipping for a 10 ounce order..
tvbcof
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May 18, 2012, 09:50:17 PM
 #1407


General Comment: BTC beats Au today (vs. yesterday.)

Another Score:  5/18/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     7.50         5.12       + 0.68
Gold    1497         1592      + 1.06

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-08zeg2011-05-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago

day           ya-btc  btc  mult    ya-Au  Au    mult
2012-05-18  7.50  5.12  0.68    1497  1592  1.06    
2012-05-17  7.80  5.09  0.65    1480  1574  1.06            
2012-05-16  7.40  5.09  0.69    1495  1533  1.03
2012-05-15  6.80  5.03  0.74    1492  1545  1.04
2012-05-14  8.50  5.00  0.59    1495  1555  1.04
2012-05-12  5.40  4.95  0.92    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-11  5.00  4.95  0.99    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-10  3.82  4.90  1.28    1510  1593  1.05
2012-05-09  3.75  5.03  1.34    1510  1590  1.05
2012-05-08  3.64  5.03  1.38    1497  1605  1.07

bitcool
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May 19, 2012, 02:26:59 AM
 #1408

apparently it either really lags it, or is very predictive of the future, or they just have a whale of a premium!!

http://store.greatpanther.com/p-7-one-ounce-silver-bar-ticker-symbols-reverse-10.aspx
Another miner refuses to accept the paper price:
  http://www.store.firstmajestic.com/

You can't believe how much money they are making~
bitsire
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May 19, 2012, 05:04:25 PM
 #1409

All week I was trying to decide between buying more silver or bitcoin, and I ended up going with bitcoin yesterday simply because of convenience - I can walk over to any Royal Bank in Canada, deposit cash, and within a couple of hours I have my coins ready to be deposited for interest generation.

Granted, I already have sufficient silver and gold stacks - if I was starting from scratch, I would certainly stack some metals first before delving into bitcoin.

In fact, I have a number of friends and family members asking me for advice now... this is the breakdown I am recommending for them:

50% silver
30% gold
20% bitcoin

I think that's a pretty good mix of safety and speculation - what do you guys think?

bitsire
tvbcof
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May 19, 2012, 05:28:18 PM
 #1410

All week I was trying to decide between buying more silver or bitcoin, and I ended up going with bitcoin yesterday simply because of convenience - I can walk over to any Royal Bank in Canada, deposit cash, and within a couple of hours I have my coins ready to be deposited for interest generation.

Getting money in reasonable sized quantities into Bitcoin is not terribly difficult, but if you want to try to do it with some grace and vis-a-vis timing the markets, you either have to make the money transfers in stages, or trust largish chunks of value to an exchange.

Getting money out in reasonable quantities to use for things which are not available in the Bitcoin economy (like a house or car) can prove aggravating, time consuming, and expensive.  I could see that becoming much more of an issue more easily than it becoming less of an issue.  My personal and relatively recent experience here with gold bullion was that it is not the case.

Granted, I already have sufficient silver and gold stacks - if I was starting from scratch, I would certainly stack some metals first before delving into bitcoin.

In fact, I have a number of friends and family members asking me for advice now... this is the breakdown I am recommending for them:

50% silver
30% gold
20% bitcoin

I think that's a pretty good mix of safety and speculation - what do you guys think?


Sounds reasonable to me for someone who has the potential to absorb a fairly significant potential loss without going hungry.  Like me.


bitsire
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May 19, 2012, 05:53:43 PM
 #1411

Sounds reasonable to me for someone who has the potential to absorb a fairly significant potential loss without going hungry.  Like me.

Yes, exactly right - if you have extra fiat money lying around that you can afford to lose then in my mind, metals and bitcoins are the way to go. What are the alternatives? Bank account? Facebook? Are these safer than metals and bitcoins? I think not.

Property, specifically farmable land is really at the top of my list, but that's obviously in another category entirely. When it comes to saving expendable wealth that you can liquidate easily if need be, I'm all in with metals and the bitcoin  Grin
tvbcof
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May 19, 2012, 06:47:26 PM
 #1412

Sounds reasonable to me for someone who has the potential to absorb a fairly significant potential loss without going hungry.  Like me.

Yes, exactly right - if you have extra fiat money lying around that you can afford to lose then in my mind, metals and bitcoins are the way to go. What are the alternatives? Bank account? Facebook? Are these safer than metals and bitcoins? I think not.

Property, specifically farmable land is really at the top of my list, but that's obviously in another category entirely. When it comes to saving expendable wealth that you can liquidate easily if need be, I'm all in with metals and the bitcoin  Grin

Actually, the reason I hold gold over fiat money or any other form of instrument with counter-party risk is very much because I trust gold more vs. that I am trying to increase my wealth.  I watched the MF-Global (and Argentina) issue with interest and am watching Greece like a hawk.  I decided to diversify into property (not farmland unfortunately) and had to address a short term (several days) cashflow issue by using gold or I would never have done it since it is expensive.  (I would have failed with Bitcoin, BTW...)

My Bitcoin is 100% speculation (minus some percentage associated with political activism.)  I consider Bitcoin to have a potential for staggering increase in value, but consider it something of a long-shot and fraught with danger and complexity even (or especially)  if it does 'go'.

I will again state a pet philosophy of mine which is that to enjoy speculative advantages of Bitcoin, one really does not need a large investment in them.  But one does need to be well secured against the twin dangers of both theft and good old fashioned loss of secret keys which means an investment in learning something about them (and possibly some more about computers depending on one's base level of knowledge.)  It might be worthwhile to put some effort into obtaining them somewhat covertly if possible.

Silver I consider somewhere between Gold and Bitcoin, but much closer to the Gold end of the spectrum.

All these are, of course, my own opinions and philosophies and I'm not qualified to give financial advise.  I get a lot out of hearing other peoples underlying thoughts on things and often they uncover ways of thinking about things that I had not considered...and occasionally they make sense to me.  I'm simply returning the favor here.


bitsire
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May 19, 2012, 07:14:20 PM
 #1413

Thanks tvbcof, I too love hearing other's reasoning behind their speculation - it is invaluable as it helps alert you if there's something you may have overlooked or causes you to see opportunities that you didn't think of before. I'm also watching the entire EU drama intensely - my metals and bitcoin are all secondary to my property and preps. I'm basically planning for the worst, hoping for the best and I see metals and bitcoins fitting into numerous outcomes so I'm sleeping pretty good at night (for now)  Smiley
MatthewLM
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May 19, 2012, 07:44:33 PM
 #1414

Well maybe facebook gives a shorting opportunity considering a PE ratio of over 100... Did I read that right?

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May 19, 2012, 08:45:31 PM
 #1415


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miscreanity
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May 19, 2012, 10:12:54 PM
 #1416

All week I was trying to decide between buying more silver or bitcoin, and I ended up going with bitcoin yesterday simply because of convenience - I can walk over to any Royal Bank in Canada, deposit cash, and within a couple of hours I have my coins ready to be deposited for interest generation.

Getting money in reasonable sized quantities into Bitcoin is not terribly difficult, but if you want to try to do it with some grace and vis-a-vis timing the markets, you either have to make the money transfers in stages, or trust largish chunks of value to an exchange.

Getting money out in reasonable quantities to use for things which are not available in the Bitcoin economy (like a house or car) can prove aggravating, time consuming, and expensive.  I could see that becoming much more of an issue more easily than it becoming less of an issue.  My personal and relatively recent experience here with gold bullion was that it is not the case.

One practice that can help with this is to only maintain 1-2 months of expenses worth of Bitcoin & fiat at an exchange, split about evenly between the two asset types. This method, effectively hedging, allows you to shift between them relatively easily while not risking a significant amount - approximately half of the total amount deposited, whether Bitcoin is locked up by penal activity taken against exchanges, or sudden fiat collapse. It bears repeating that these exchange deposits should not be savings for big-ticket items like tvbcof suggested, but monthly expenses - bills, groceries, etc.

It wouldn't be the easiest thing to do, but a good practice is to consistently deposit & withdraw at least once a month. A history of transactions can give the exchange a better sense of your reliability, including higher limits on request. You'll also notice pretty quickly whether any issues have arisen with transfers, at which point you can convert everything to Bitcoin and move to another exchange, or pull it all to your private wallet.

Whatever you decide, it's definitely a good idea to keep 1-3 months worth of domestic fiat on hand in case of bank holidays/runs and all that. What if you need to buy a plane ticket on the spot and banks are refusing transactions? If you have to flee, your Bitcoin balance will still be available.

Granted, I already have sufficient silver and gold stacks - if I was starting from scratch, I would certainly stack some metals first before delving into bitcoin.

In fact, I have a number of friends and family members asking me for advice now... this is the breakdown I am recommending for them:

50% silver
30% gold
20% bitcoin

I think that's a pretty good mix of safety and speculation - what do you guys think?

Sounds reasonable to me for someone who has the potential to absorb a fairly significant potential loss without going hungry.  Like me.

Agreed - for simple savings, that's about as good as it gets.

My own holdings of gold/silver are reversed:
  • 50% gold
  • 30% silver
  • 20% bitcoin

If working from an existing asset holding with 50% silver/30% gold ratio, silver can be sold for gold as the gold/silver ratio declines, exchanging 10% silver into gold every 10pt level (e.g. @ 40, 30, etc). A nicely tradeable gold/Bitcoin ratio should develop stronger than it exists now, as both become more widely adopted. Maintain a minimum 10% holding each of Bitcoin and silver.

Min-Max Ranges:
  • 40-80% gold
  • 10-40% silver
  • 10-30% bitcoin

Why? First, gold is the metal that will be revalued and remonetised into the global financial system (Bitcoin hasn't made enough inroads yet). Second, gold is less expensive to store than silver. Third, although silver will rise with gold, there is no certainty as to when & how revaluation will occur, or whether silver will keep up during latter stages of revalutation (financial utility may boost gold for a some time, even though the natural ratio is below 20:1).

With those ratios in mind, I always try to buy a little bit of whatever is cheapest among them, using some of the other two to make purchases. Some clients (or employers) can even be persuaded to pay in BTC. In this manner, there is almost no need to interact with fiat whatsoever; it's liberating in more ways than one Smiley
silverbox
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May 21, 2012, 02:43:47 PM
 #1417



Today could be the day the downtrend is broken!!
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May 21, 2012, 03:53:49 PM
 #1418

BTW, what u guys think about facebook stock, worth a shot or will crash soon?
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May 21, 2012, 03:55:52 PM
 #1419

BTW, what u guys think about facebook stock, worth a shot or will crash soon?

Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole.  But you never know, it could go up, I don't see it thu Wink
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May 21, 2012, 04:33:04 PM
 #1420

Maybe I should sign up for a spread betting company offering facebook so I can short it.  Smiley Except I wont.

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