Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

Buying in the $18s for Ag has been safe for the last few years.
So has anything changed?
Interest rates look like they will be rising over the next few years.
This makes interest bearing instruments look more attractive as PM bears no interest.

However... 


Recent history shows that this benefit is illusory.
Even so, we can expect some percentage of people to ignore the data and trade away their PM for interest bearing investments.  This presents some opportunities for the others.

take a look at my post above about Gibson's Paradox.

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[igorr]

Bitcoin has lost value 65% for only 4 months  

[NewLiberty]

Bitcoin has lost value 65% for only 4 months  

Bitcoin has gained value 500% for only 12 months 

[NewLiberty]

Most importantly, Summers understands gold. He made a major contribution to Gibson's Paradox as it applies to free markets: "Gold prices should move inversely to real interest rates."  Not on Summers watch. 

He has been accused by gold bugs of engineering gov't interference in the gold markets by pushing the price down despite the ongoing drop in interest rates also engineered by gov't so as not to alarm the population. they have been marginally successful in doing so.

along comes Bitcoin. a new problem that they potentially can't control and Summers sees it.

http://www.coindesk.com/former-obama-advisor-larry-summers-critics-dont-write-bitcoin/

Yes, you made good reference to it, and I loved the Summers bit.  Which I'd not seen earlier.
Keynes usually gets the credit for use of Gibsons, but there aren't a lot of Keynes fans in this crowd.

I'd be foolish to ignore what you write, and didn't mean to be negligent in crediting your previous similar analysis.    I'm just throwing a few more sticks on the bonfire you are tending.

[igorr]

Bitcoin has lost value 65% for only 4 months  

Bitcoin has gained value 500% for only 12 months 

and now go to zero for 6 months 

[cypherdoc]

Bitcoin has lost value 65% for only 4 months  

Bitcoin has gained value 500% for only 12 months 

and now go to zero for 6 months 

i think New Liberty has a better handle on the situation than you do.

[cypherdoc]

Bitcoin has lost value 65% for only 4 months  

Bitcoin has gained value 500% for only 12 months 

and now go to zero for 6 months 

it must be scary thinking Bitcoin has bottomed out.

[cypherdoc]

igorr,

if this guy says it, it must be true:

"Mook invented the computer based cash register in 1985 as well as a golf ball that changes color in 1990, so we do not take his price projections lightly"

you hear that?  he invented the changing color golf ball!  he's a clairvoyant!

http://www.ihavebitcoins.com/featured/rockets-scientist-william-mooks-700000-bitcoin-price-target/

[cypherdoc]

hey Goat!

$18 silver coming right up.  you gonna be rich man!

[adamstgBit]

i'm looking for 14$ silver

i figure it'll get there by the end of the year.

[cypherdoc]

Where is that Teebone dude?

Take your own bet Man!

[TeeBone]

1 year, anything longer is boring.

Take it or leave it.   

[cypherdoc]

1 year, anything longer is boring.

Take it or leave it.   

You're on.

[TeeBone]

We'll go with kitco, i guess. Did you want .15 or .25 ?

On to the next bet , we'll think of something.

[cypherdoc]

We'll go with kitco, i guess. Did you want .15 or .25 ?

On to the next bet , we'll think of something.

Yeah, Kitco and 0.25, one year from today. 1100 or less at anytime before then.

[molecular]

someone's suggesting to call precious metal investors to get them into bitcoin on reddit. ;-)

[zeetubes]

Placing bets for or against the price of PMs in USD is basically the same as flipping a coin. Most of the long term hoarders don't care what the price is in fiat. They just know that if/when the dollar collapses they'll probably be better off than a lot of people. BTC is the only relatively pure supply and demand play that I've seen in the last 15 years. If more people buy than sell, the price goes up and vice versa. That will probably change in years to come. Right now in PMs it seems the more people buy the lower the price goes. Imagine if apple started selling twice as many iphones as last year, the stock price would double. A few years back some guy worked out that if you went short gold during the US trading day and long during the overnight markets you would have made some huge profits.

"Back in August 2010, we presented an idea proposed by our friends at SK Options trading for a very simple trading strategy: being long gold in the overnight session, and shorting it during the day. At the time of writing, such a strategy would have returned $2.16 billion from a $100 million initial investment in 10 years, a 37.46% annualized return. Today, we provide a much needed follow up to this quite stunning divergence. As SK notes: "we have revisited the article and written an update. Not only does the discrepancy still exist but it has been actually increasing. That fund would now be worth $5.26B, way up from $2.16B when we last wrote about it - in other words an increase of 143% in just over a year. When we wrote about this in August 2010, the annualized return of the Long Overnight/Short Intraday gold index was 37.46% since the start of 2001. However if we measure from now the annualized return since 2001 is 43.24%, with the annualized return of the Long Overnight/Short Intraday gold index standing at roughly 64.4% since 2009." "

[boumalo]

Gold has been going up every year for 10years except in 2013 and bitcoin has been going up every single year so far; the governments agencies have been manipulating the markets, the USD hasn't collapse yet and we didn't have the much needed recession so Gold and Bitcoin will go to the moon when the problems really arrive in the west

[marcus_of_augustus]

Gold has been going up every year for 10years except in 2013 and bitcoin has been going up every single year so far; the governments agencies have been manipulating the markets, the USD hasn't collapse yet and we didn't have the much needed recession so Gold and Bitcoin will go to the moon when the problems really arrive in the west

... to da moon baby ....

but you do NOT want to be around when it happens because everything else will be going to da shithouse ...

[boumalo]

Gold has been going up every year for 10years except in 2013 and bitcoin has been going up every single year so far; the governments agencies have been manipulating the markets, the USD hasn't collapse yet and we didn't have the much needed recession so Gold and Bitcoin will go to the moon when the problems really arrive in the west

... to da moon baby ....

but you do NOT want to be around when it happens because everything else will be going to da shithouse ...

I think you can be fairly pessimistic when you see the amount of lies and deception the politics are using to hide the problems that they created : riots, martial law and wars are not out of the question

You could not be in the US or Europe when the worse happens and be safely in a freer country