Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cbeast]

Gold will suffer the same fate as the housing bubble. Gold rehypothecation through derivatives is shinier than even energy, but much less important. Energy however, will probably not bubble because it has become politically weaponized. It would be useful if someone could create financial instruments linking (not pinning) Bitcoin to energy futures. I'm sure it has been argued that Bitcoin has more to offer as a trading commodity than gold.

[silverbox]

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 3/26

Bitcoin 4.58   (down ~15%)

Gold 1680  (down <1%)


Where is the collapse!!

 

[cypherdoc]

i still say, don't get sucked in.  picking corners is difficult and i'm usually early.

watch the Dow.  i think we're in a topping process and if it turns down, gold and silver will follow.

actually, today's ramp in gold and silver will act as a governor on how high the Dow and stocks can go.  these things cycle and we've had 3 mo of continuous inhaling.  time to exhale.

[cypherdoc]

actually the VIX moved positive right now which is a warning.

[MatthewLM]

Gold didn't actually follow stocks closely in 07-09. I seem to remember stocks peaked sooner, gold bottomed sooner and by the time stocks bottomed gold had already recovered.

[SkRRJyTC]

AAPL > $600

[cbeast]

Gold didn't actually follow stocks closely in 07-09. I seem to remember stocks peaked sooner, gold bottomed sooner and by the time stocks bottomed gold had already recovered.

Such a lag seems to imply hedging gold against stocks. I wonder if there is data regarding gold supplies in response to demand? I am simply suspicious of the gold supply and whether or not it is used to manipulate confidence in the stock markets.

[miscreanity]

i think its best not to think about what the Fed will or will not do and try to predict what will happen as a result  but to instead just look at the facts and what the markets have done and are doing as evidence of what is about to happen.

I like that reply

You definitely do well in that regard - I just hope you don't get tripped up at some point without any physical metal in your corner, as unwieldy as it can be.

Gold will suffer the same fate as the housing bubble. Gold rehypothecation through derivatives is shinier than even energy, but much less important. Energy however, will probably not bubble because it has become politically weaponized. It would be useful if someone could create financial instruments linking (not pinning) Bitcoin to energy futures. I'm sure it has been argued that Bitcoin has more to offer as a trading commodity than gold.

It's impossible for a bank to claim ownership of something that is not in its possession or accessible to it, legal or otherwise. Contracts and physical metal held within the banking system (COMEX, LBMA, HSBC & JPM warehouses, etc) can be rehypothecated. Physical metal outside of the banking system's purview is not (private storage methods - not safe deposit boxes). Blind them and you're safe.

If/when gold is reintegrated into the global monetary system as a form of international balance of trade settlement, it will be revalued to a level approaching the current Berkshire Hathaway class A share price. Competition among top-tier institutions for real assets and resources (especially energy as you mention) guarantees this - even if the trade is only bi- or trilateral. Euros may not be accepted for Dollars, which may not be accepted for Yuan, but all will agree on physical gold.

Bitcoin has more to offer so long as the system remains intact, which is where the need for gold as insurance comes in. Since it's still in very early stages, there's only a marginal possibility that it will be adopted and integrated at a sufficient level to replace gold, let alone displace. Gold is the instrument for this decade. I'd say around 2016-2020, Bitcoin (or a similar system) could start to dominate.

[cypherdoc]

today is a big day. for me if the Dow gets up over the 3/15 high and stays there, i have a problem short term with both my stock and pm shorts.  it wouldn't be a given though and i've set myself a deadline for the final roll which is the end of April.  if we get beyond that date then i'm wrong.  this is based on my cycle work.

[SkRRJyTC]

today is a big day. for me if the Dow gets up over the 3/15 high and stays there, i have a problem short term with both my stock and pm shorts.  it wouldn't be a given though and i've set myself a deadline for the final roll which is the end of April.  if we get beyond that date then i'm wrong.  this is based on my cycle work.

Is it not possible for the Dow to go up through the end of April and still have a PM crash?  I would stick with your pm short for a while longer after you get rid of your stock short.

[cypherdoc]

today is a big day. for me if the Dow gets up over the 3/15 high and stays there, i have a problem short term with both my stock and pm shorts.  it wouldn't be a given though and i've set myself a deadline for the final roll which is the end of April.  if we get beyond that date then i'm wrong.  this is based on my cycle work.

Is it not possible for the Dow to go up through the end of April and still have a PM crash?  I would stick with your pm short for a while longer after you get rid of your stock short.

thats a long way off and it'll depend on what the market structure looks like at that point.

edit:  but i'd be on HIGH alert for a crash starting right about now.

[cypherdoc]

here's a couple of warnings for stock bulls.  TLT is rising which is another form of the fear trade aka deflation.  it bottomed 6 days ago.  they rose all during the 2008 crash.

the VIX is skating along the bottom and not heading lower.  there is a long term baseline that hasn't broken in years.  thats where we're at.

[cypherdoc]

Go Baby. Go!

[cypherdoc]

and we still have a non confirmation in the Transports.

[HorseRider]

cypherdoc, do you think that the legal issue will be a potential obstacle for the next rally of the bitcoin?

without a wide spread exchange+broker+agent+sales net work, I don't think a big rally is possible for the price rise to more than $100. the money should flow into the bitcoin very fast.

[cypherdoc]

cypherdoc, do you think that the legal issue will be a potential obstacle for the next rally of the bitcoin?

without a wide spread exchange+broker+agent+sales net work, I don't think a big rally is possible for the price rise to more than $100. the money should flow into the bitcoin very fast.

i really don't think so.  we already have several US based alternative currencies like Bershares, Liberty Dollars, Facebook credits, etc.:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_currency

i'm more concerned with a surreptitious attack like the 51% scenario; but not that worried.

[HorseRider]

i really don't think so.  we already have several US based alternative currencies like Bershares, Liberty Dollars, Facebook credits, etc.:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_currency

i'm more concerned with a surreptitious attack like the 51% scenario; but not that worried.

According to the Google cancel its p2p currency plan and the high cost for tradehill to settle the licence and arguing with banks all the day about money laundry issue, the legal obstacle is not going to settle down easily.  But your words is really encouraging and I think bitcoin will finally find a way out of the jungle of legal in US. If bitcoin can be traded freely and confirmatively legally in US, then people all around the world can find a way investing into the bitcoin by enabling the existing sales+agents net work for the Forex&stock.

[cypherdoc]

watch it.  VIX, TLT, and TRIN all rising.

i bet AAPL breaks down from here...

[silverbox]

Looks kinda like a freight train to me..  Hard to catch a rising knife .

The retail investor is still piling in.  I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole, but it could easily run up to 7-800 from here.

[SkRRJyTC]

i bet AAPL breaks down from here...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbSQ8JbyQo8