[XMR] Monero Speculation

[s1gs3gv]

There are many a slip 'twix cup and lip

[americanpegasus]

And the above is supported by the fact that after roughly 550 days Monero has roughly a magnitude more members doing commits!

You can all sign up for my newsletter, for 1 xmr. The first edition will be sent out in 2019.

 
  
Luckily, the highly predictable nature of the future has been a constant throughout history.  

[aminorex]

Hash rate used to be about 25% higher than it is now

Is Monero dying? I added histograms of Monero trade quantity on different prices to http://vnno2t46wi42jgm7jdyf75obc2zbm3jizel6gvawaaj4mzmkgvoa.b32.i2p.xyz/.

Exchange traffic is not an unmitigated boon to XMR.  The clear positives are the 5 branches of development:  Technology, software, infrastructure, economy, and culture.  Speculative churn is not one of those.  XMR could die entirely as an object of volatility speculation, while smoothly rising to the moon, in terms of cryptographic technology, robust and friendly software, hash-rate and network scale, business growth, and eusocial mindshare.  That is very unlikely to happen, as the sort of monotonic appreciation implied would attract investors with varying time-preferences like a state fair attracts deep-fryers, but it is entirely possible, so please don't think volatility speculation is strongly correlated with success in forming social capital.  A robust and diverse speculative community can provide a good service in terms of liquidity, helpful to the development of the real economy, but in its absence there are alternatives, such as dedicated market-making operations off-exchange, which can fulfill the same function.

Anyhow, if you like XMR, if you hold XMR, you should please be hashing with all your idle hardware.  No good reason not to solo-mine if do, given the difficulty we see today.  Lots of good reasons to solo mine, no downside.

[opennux]

And the above is supported by the fact that after roughly 550 days Monero has roughly a magnitude more members doing commits!

You can all sign up for my newsletter, for 1 xmr. The first edition will be sent out in 2019.

 
  
Luckily, the highly predictable nature of the future has been a constant throughout history.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg12785770#msg12785770

Which means that somewhere around 2018 you'll quit your job and be applying yourself in this space full-time. If you already know today then might as well hand in your resignation for that date.  

[jehst]

We may reach a point where every day, people wake up and ask "So what are we pumping today?"

Eventually, the answer will be XMR. Now is the time to prepare yourselves accordingly.

[aminorex]

My only conclusion can be that neither price nor hash rate matters.  

It certainly matters for the purposes of mark-to-market valuation.  I consider these points non-controversial:

- A higher price attracts miners.
- More miners means higher difficulty.
- Higher difficulty means that a miner cannot profitably unless price is above a (higher) level.
- Miners who sell unprofitably tend to leave the market quickly.

Inference:  The floor ("quantum foam") price will rise when difficulty rises.  

- A gradually rising price attracts holders.
- Holders attract entrepreneurs.
- Entrepreneurs build the economy.
- An expanding economy supports price appreciation.

Inference:  Supporting the floor price by mining is strongly in the interests of large holders, and indeed in the interests of everyone who can benefit from the personal freedom and security which Monero enables, i.e. all of mankind.

In conclusion:  Virtuous feedback cycles are virtuous.  If you are a good person, you are a Monero miner.

[aminorex]

The solution to this is to tell more people about Monero. Some of you are probably doing this but I have a feeling some of you do nothing besides posting in this forum where everyone is already aware of Monero!

If you want Monero to become the greatest currency in the world do something every day to make sure it happens!

Strengthening and refining the culture internally is also of benefit to the store of social capital.  Establishing and elevating the tone of discourse does this.  But yes, even a foul community can be a robustly growing one, if its outreach is on point, so outreach is better than in-reach.

[aminorex]

There are many a slip 'twix cup and lip

Perhaps, but this is far more true of toddlers wielding sippy cups of orange drink than it is of statesmen nursing snifters of armagnac.  

[aminorex]

[Dont respond to that guy he is an imbecile.  Have you seen his youtube video?

We should cherish our imbeciles.  (So many business models depend upon them!)  That is not to say that we should let them breed, nor that we should cherish every disingenuity emitted by them.  The nobility of a culture is measured by the care it takes for its weakest members.  A robust culture can support nobility.

 

[aminorex]

XAUUSD downtrend may end soon as well, so I will soon be out; I am aiming for an 1150 exit, but my trailing stop is now down to 1165, in the worst case.

This has happened.  I think the bottom in XAUUSD may be now +-24 hours:  Timing models put the mode of the most concentrated probability mass  4 to 12 hours from now.  That mass is about 30% of the total mass.  Of course the models are constantly redistributing the future CDF, with each new bit of information that comes in, but its a pretty stable pattern so far.

SPX triggered a stop-loss at 2050 on 10/22, so I'm waiting to go short again, which I expect to be late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

But SPX does tend to jump the gun on my timing models, so I am on a hair-trigger on this one...

Sure does seem to me like - pardon if this has been obvious to y'all since bygone ages - that Chinese capital flight is propelling BTCUSD.  Someone needs to tell these people that they are leaving an ineradicable trail which can buy them a public execution in PRC.

[jehst]

XAUUSD downtrend may end soon as well, so I will soon be out; I am aiming for an 1150 exit, but my trailing stop is now down to 1165, in the worst case.

This has happened.  I think the bottom in XAUUSD may be now +-24 hours:  Timing models put the mode of the most concentrated probability mass  4 to 12 hours from now.  That mass is about 30% of the total mass.  Of course the models are constantly redistributing the future CDF, with each new bit of information that comes in, but its a pretty stable pattern so far.

SPX triggered a stop-loss at 2050 on 10/22, so I'm waiting to go short again, which I expect to be late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

But SPX does tend to jump the gun on my timing models, so I am on a hair-trigger on this one...

Sure does seem to me like - pardon if this has been obvious to y'all since bygone ages - that Chinese capital flight is propelling BTCUSD.  Someone needs to tell these people that they are leaving an ineradicable trail which can buy them a public execution in PRC.

I doubt they're depositing in Huobi in their own names.  Rich Chinese people buy bank accounts opened in the names of literal peasants from Western China or dead people. Selling those accounts is a business. Once it's in bitcoin and leapfrogged across a couple of exchanges, it's gone.

[canth]

XAUUSD downtrend may end soon as well, so I will soon be out; I am aiming for an 1150 exit, but my trailing stop is now down to 1165, in the worst case.

This has happened.  I think the bottom in XAUUSD may be now +-24 hours:  Timing models put the mode of the most concentrated probability mass  4 to 12 hours from now.  That mass is about 30% of the total mass.  Of course the models are constantly redistributing the future CDF, with each new bit of information that comes in, but its a pretty stable pattern so far.

SPX triggered a stop-loss at 2050 on 10/22, so I'm waiting to go short again, which I expect to be late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

But SPX does tend to jump the gun on my timing models, so I am on a hair-trigger on this one...

Sure does seem to me like - pardon if this has been obvious to y'all since bygone ages - that Chinese capital flight is propelling BTCUSD.  Someone needs to tell these people that they are leaving an ineradicable trail which can buy them a public execution in PRC.

I doubt they're depositing in Huobi in their own names.  Rich Chinese people buy bank accounts opened in the names of literal peasants from Western China or dead people. Selling those accounts is a business. Once it's in bitcoin and leapfrogged across a couple of exchanges, it's gone.

+1. Merchants will go into a village and buy up 100s of peasant identification cards, use those to open bank accounts and funnel money through them to wherever. With a limit of $50K per person, it's pretty easy to move a few $mm using lots of accounts.

[nioc]

My only conclusion can be that neither price nor hash rate matters.  

It certainly matters for the purposes of mark-to-market valuation.  I consider these points non-controversial:

- A higher price attracts miners.
- More miners means higher difficulty.
- Higher difficulty means that a miner cannot profitably unless price is above a (higher) level.
- Miners who sell unprofitably tend to leave the market quickly.

Inference:  The floor ("quantum foam") price will rise when difficulty rises.  

- A gradually rising price attracts holders.
- Holders attract entrepreneurs.
- Entrepreneurs build the economy.
- An expanding economy supports price appreciation.

Inference:  Supporting the floor price by mining is strongly in the interests of large holders, and indeed in the interests of everyone who can benefit from the personal freedom and security which Monero enables, i.e. all of mankind.

In conclusion:  Virtuous feedback cycles are virtuous.  If you are a good person, you are a Monero miner.

Should a good person mine with a bad computer?  Bad = 35 H/s

If yes then, solo mine or pool?

[chennan]

My only conclusion can be that neither price nor hash rate matters.  

It certainly matters for the purposes of mark-to-market valuation.  I consider these points non-controversial:

- A higher price attracts miners.
- More miners means higher difficulty.
- Higher difficulty means that a miner cannot profitably unless price is above a (higher) level.
- Miners who sell unprofitably tend to leave the market quickly.

Inference:  The floor ("quantum foam") price will rise when difficulty rises.  

- A gradually rising price attracts holders.
- Holders attract entrepreneurs.
- Entrepreneurs build the economy.
- An expanding economy supports price appreciation.

Inference:  Supporting the floor price by mining is strongly in the interests of large holders, and indeed in the interests of everyone who can benefit from the personal freedom and security which Monero enables, i.e. all of mankind.

In conclusion:  Virtuous feedback cycles are virtuous.  If you are a good person, you are a Monero miner.

Should a good person mine with a bad computer?  Bad = 35 H/s

If yes then, solo mine or pool?

Yes, this... I don't even bother mining as of now because I'm still rocking a Windows from back in the early 2000's... ain't no body got time for that

[dnaleor]

Regarding price, its unfortunate that anti-pooling measures haven't been developed (you kill the pool, you kill the botnets... at least their current implementation anyway. Although it would hard to hide a multigig blockchain on an infected computer.. but there could be countermeasures). But, as has been mentioned before, even satoshi said something about botnets securing the network, so, whattaya gonna do.

regarding that, how would the monero network defend itself against a hostile attack by a large computational power? I.e., if Tianhe 2 (http://www.top500.org/lists/2015/06/), for whatever reason, unleashed its 33.86 petaflop/s of power on our network... ??

What about signing a mined block by the receiver of the coinbase transaction?
I know this is a "radical" anti-pool measure, but in the light of decentralization, I can see it working, once we have smart mining.
But maybe some people would prefer pooled mining, because that lowers variance. When there are no pools, some miners will drop of I guess...

So maybe this could be a solution:
When a block isn't signed by the receiver of the coinbase transaction (pooled mining), there is a 10% (5%? 20%?) penalty on the block reward. We already have a mechanism for "forwarding" the lost reward to the next blocks, so this wouldn't be that difficult to implement.

It would at least encourage smart mining on laptops to be solo mining. Some bigger miners may choose to do solo mining.
Botnets however would still mine & dump... (but would get less than solo miners)

[GingerAle]

Regarding price, its unfortunate that anti-pooling measures haven't been developed (you kill the pool, you kill the botnets... at least their current implementation anyway. Although it would hard to hide a multigig blockchain on an infected computer.. but there could be countermeasures). But, as has been mentioned before, even satoshi said something about botnets securing the network, so, whattaya gonna do.

regarding that, how would the monero network defend itself against a hostile attack by a large computational power? I.e., if Tianhe 2 (http://www.top500.org/lists/2015/06/), for whatever reason, unleashed its 33.86 petaflop/s of power on our network... ??

What about signing a mined block by the receiver of the coinbase transaction?
I know this is a "radical" anti-pool measure, but in the light of decentralization, I can see it working, once we have smart mining.
But maybe some people would prefer pooled mining, because that lowers variance. When there are no pools, some miners will drop of I guess...

I think this is exactly what spreadcoin does. It kinda didn't work... asked about it on their thread, and I'm pretty sure I got a solid answer. Though at one point smooth convinced me that fud mainly killed the coin and the anti anti-pool countermeasure was nonexistant... but I remember ultimately being convinced that it didn't work.

[smooth]

Should a good person mine with a bad computer?  Bad = 35 H/s

If yes then, solo mine or pool?

If you're mining to help the network (and that's really the only reason with a bad computer) and you can, solo mine.

You may want to look into underclocking/undervolting to make the efficiency slightly less bad, unless you 100% don't care about electricity/heat.

[smooth]

I think this is exactly what spreadcoin does. It kinda didn't work... asked about it on their thread, and I'm pretty sure I got a solid answer. Though at one point smooth convinced me that fud mainly killed the coin and the anti anti-pool countermeasure was nonexistant... but I remember ultimately being convinced that it didn't work.

It wasn't me. Someone else reported back on the AEON thread after it was discussed that it was FUD. When I looked it seemed to me that the pool was using a closed source miner as a countermeasure, which sort of works, but only as long as no one cares enough to attack it.

[dnaleor]

The perception thing was a lose-lose game. If we changed the emission then, it would've looked bad. So we left it alone. But that will look bad in a few years from now when newcomers look back. But think about it: most people really don't know how money is created. They don't study the history and origin of the money they use. They just use it. If Monero is the same way, then the perception of the emission won't matter in a few years from now. People will just use it if they find it useful. People don't care about the origins of USD when they earn it today and spend it tomorrow.

I truly think it won't matter. The success of XMR won't hinge on the emission.

Well, I already encountered people who said things like "so basically you are telling me I should buy coins you (or someone else) got much cheaper? This looks fishy/a pyramid scheme/..."

I know... fiat is a constantly instamined scam. But still, this is a real feeling.
This feeling is even bigger when you tell them that already 2/3 of the total emission is already distributed (talking about BTC here).
So XMR does a little better in this case, with the permanent block reward.

But imho, I'm still convinced a fixed block reward right from the start will be perceived as the most "fair and neutral" emission scheme.
I do think that monero could "overcome" this issue due to the permanent block reward. BTC... not so sure about it.

And stoners will be stoners, they don't care about how the money is created, as long as they can buy weed with it  

[aminorex]

Time to reverse long bond positions to bullish.