[XMR] Monero Speculation

[GingerAle]

I've been watching XMR price closely for more than a year now.

Someone is selling aggressively XMR (profoundly a whale) to break the price and buy back lower. Unless it is a hacker/thief who had laundered the BTC to XMR and now does the opposite (I don't think this is the case because the selling is aggressive but very careful, done from a serious trader).

I hope he does not use leverage  

I've been observing this as well. He/she/it also has a pretty sophisticated bot, that constantly places random asks etc. In addition, he nearly always places a group of small asks (mostly something like 150-250-300) near the price and some bigger random asks (1-4k) a bit further away. His "manipulation" is quite salient. This behavior started after that massive (shortsale) dump until 0.0013, when basically all the loan offers were taken out (not immediately by the way). I've also seen this bot in a sort of reverse mode, but it mainly supresses the prices currently (like Klee pointed out).

I don't think its anything more complicated than some whale has a boatload of xmr and they want to cashout to fiat. Currently the only process is to go from xmr -> btc -> fiat, because at he/she/its level of holdings, an OTC trade probably wouldn't be wise ("oh yeah here's my 10k USD paypal transaction doop dee doo"). The value of all cryptocurrencies are linked to btc value, so this could be someone just seizing the opportunity to cash out of cryptocurrency while the gettings good. To do so at maximum value requires using a bot due to the liquidity of xmr. I'd say this is backed by the fact that this action has been going on since btc started its multimonth rise.

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[Hueristic]

...

Yeah and it probably also has the best liquidity. If I recall correctly, they have some guide on their site that explains it all. Basically, with shorting you borrow BTC from someone on the site for a certain interest rate. Subsequently, you sell them and if the price declines you buy them back to realize your profit.

Do you have a referral number?

...
I also think BTC is due for a correction but you can never be 100% sure. Shorting is dangerous. If your only goal is to buy more XMR why not just buy more XMR now instead of shorting BTC?

I'm a gambler, If I short and win and XMR prices stay sideways (I think that likely during my shorting period) then I get MOAR XMR!!!!

Mohahahahaha.

Actually I would get alot more if I didn't get sucked out on in a couple 1500 dollar pots last week and just bought instead. @$!$##!@

[dEBRUYNE]

...

Yeah and it probably also has the best liquidity. If I recall correctly, they have some guide on their site that explains it all. Basically, with shorting you borrow BTC from someone on the site for a certain interest rate. Subsequently, you sell them and if the price declines you buy them back to realize your profit.

Do you have a referral number?

...
I also think BTC is due for a correction but you can never be 100% sure. Shorting is dangerous. If your only goal is to buy more XMR why not just buy more XMR now instead of shorting BTC?

I'm a gambler, If I short and win and XMR prices stay sideways (I think that likely during my shorting period) then I get MOAR XMR!!!!

Mohahahahaha.

Actually I would get alot more if I didn't get sucked out on in a couple 1500 dollar pots last week and just bought instead. @$!$##!@

I looked through my account, but can't find a referral link anywhere :-P

[dloghwak]

I'm 100% convince this is a BTC bubble

Someone on the wall observer thread was talking about some MMM ponzi. I couldn't follow it and I have no idea what effect that might have. Does anyone think that has any merit?

Given the critical role BTC has in trading XMR it seems we ought to understand if there is some large (?) unsustainable factor driving current BTC prices, and how close that might be to reversing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/3qd7cc/this_week_at_okcoin_china_update_mmm_ponzi/
http://cointelegraph.com/news/115425/btcc-ceo-bobby-lee-warns-bitcoin-investors-about-mmm-ponzi-scheme

Could be the reason for the current rally. But it seems no one analyzed the input/output of the ponzis adresses yet.

[Hueristic]

...

Yeah and it probably also has the best liquidity. If I recall correctly, they have some guide on their site that explains it all. Basically, with shorting you borrow BTC from someone on the site for a certain interest rate. Subsequently, you sell them and if the price declines you buy them back to realize your profit.

Do you have a referral number?

...
I also think BTC is due for a correction but you can never be 100% sure. Shorting is dangerous. If your only goal is to buy more XMR why not just buy more XMR now instead of shorting BTC?

I'm a gambler, If I short and win and XMR prices stay sideways (I think that likely during my shorting period) then I get MOAR XMR!!!!

Mohahahahaha.

Actually I would get alot more if I didn't get sucked out on in a couple 1500 dollar pots last week and just bought instead. @$!$##!@

I looked through my account, but can't find a referral link anywhere :-P

Bummer.

Anyone got a Referral number for Bitfinex? Setting up acct now just waiting on a number. Not sure what it pays there.


EDIT:

This is how to find it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1z5oa1/where_to_find_referral_code_on_bitfinex/

https://www.bitfinex.com/representatives - you need to have this enabled manually on your account though.

You'll see someting like this then:

    Your representative account is ACTIVE
    Your referrer code (give this code to your affiliates when they register on Bitfinex) x5K9YtL3Zb
    Currency to receive income USD
    The affiliate program gives you access to the following benefits:
    x% on affiliates' trading fees
    x% on affiliates' lending fees
    Bitfinex reserves the right to make adjustments or changes to the affiliate program.

Feel free to use my code or just contact Bitfinex, maybe they'll enable your account too.

[jehst]

I'm 100% convince this is a BTC bubble

Someone on the wall observer thread was talking about some MMM ponzi. I couldn't follow it and I have no idea what effect that might have. Does anyone think that has any merit?

Given the critical role BTC has in trading XMR it seems we ought to understand if there is some large (?) unsustainable factor driving current BTC prices, and how close that might be to reversing.

Bobby Lee, CEO of Chinese exchange BTCC, told CoinDesk his platform has seen a significant volume increase, though he dismissed much of his competitors' volume as "artificial".

Those behind the volume, he said, are not traders but consumers sucked into a Russian ponzi scheme, MMM.

"We have posted warnings on our site and on our social media to warn users to be careful, but they have been coming to our exchange and buying out like crazy."

A scheme that uses BTC as a deposit method could function very much like a Willy-bot. New participants form a steady stream of new buyers. Provided that the interest payments and deposits are denominated in fiat, then the higher BTC goes, the longer the operators will be able to make payouts.

This MMM leader is big-time. His earlier scams caused 100+ million dollars in losses. That kind of buying pressure, combined with speculators piling on, mixed with some artificial volume from Huobi/OKCoin, could set off a buying frenzy.  

[elrippo]

It seems that people cry for a user friendly GUI wallet. Let 0.9 version be out first. Then I may spend time creating a new one which is based on NodeJS or Python

I would be equally happy if I could use tab-complition and up-arrow (to get recently used commands) in the smartwallet or bitmonred.

yeah that is one thing I wish could be implemented as well. I'm always hitting up-arrow and having to delete what is typed.

In Linux you can use the arrows function.
I am waiting very angeous for the 0.9 and official GUI release.
One question. How can I integrate the old wallets from 0.8.8.6 to fully encrypted in 0.9?

Monermoo or someone of the devs?

[dEBRUYNE]

It seems that people cry for a user friendly GUI wallet. Let 0.9 version be out first. Then I may spend time creating a new one which is based on NodeJS or Python

I would be equally happy if I could use tab-complition and up-arrow (to get recently used commands) in the smartwallet or bitmonred.

yeah that is one thing I wish could be implemented as well. I'm always hitting up-arrow and having to delete what is typed.

In Linux you can use the arrows function.
I am waiting very angeous for the 0.9 and official GUI release.
One question. How can I integrate the old wallets from 0.8.8.6 to fully encrypted in 0.9?

Monermoo or someone of the devs?

Someone else asked something similiar in the main topic:

The design is already done, see following link for some sneak peaks -> http://imgur.com/a/ERheR

So basically only libraryzing has to be done in order to wire up and release the GUI. The design goals can give you a bit of a skewed view, because a lot of stuff is in front of the GUI on the list. However, most of that stuff doesn't necessarily need to be finished before the GUI can be released.

P.S. More about "libraryzing" -> https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3ltrxt/its_happening_stepbystep_every_month_since_i/cv9hix0

Out of curiosity, a technical question; would it be easy to migrate to the new version with/without GUI? You've mentioned earlier that a beta is already floating around but never got the chance to run it myself successfully (MoneroX GUI client crashed on me). I thought starting it from scratch with a new wallet and transfer the funds there, but I just dropped it since it's now working just fine... Would you recommend a migration or a brand new wallet/database?

Your wallet can probably be directly transferred over (but I never used the GUIs). I think you can just download the new binaries and run bitmonerod until it's synced up, and copy the wallet files to wherever you want to run the new simplewallet from. Syncing on the new version is often nearly as fast as converting the existing chain and usually less headache.

If for some reason your wallet can't be transferred over, you should be able to recreate it from its seed with the new simplewallet.

The beta works well for me.  Its super fast synching and uses very little ram, as little as 100mb I believe. 

My working set is presently ~475 MB, but Private is only 42,400 KB (the number that shows up in Task Manager).

@Hueristic, that doesn't work. Tried that already before you posted it :-P

[klee]

I've been watching XMR price closely for more than a year now.

Someone is selling aggressively XMR (profoundly a whale) to break the price and buy back lower. Unless it is a hacker/thief who had laundered the BTC to XMR and now does the opposite (I don't think this is the case because the selling is aggressive but very careful, done from a serious trader).

I hope he does not use leverage  

I've been observing this as well. He/she/it also has a pretty sophisticated bot, that constantly places random asks etc. In addition, he nearly always places a group of small asks (mostly something like 150-250-300) near the price and some bigger random asks (1-4k) a bit further away. His "manipulation" is quite salient. This behavior started after that massive (shortsale) dump until 0.0013, when basically all the loan offers were taken out (not immediately by the way). I've also seen this bot in a sort of reverse mode, but it mainly supresses the prices currently (like Klee pointed out).

I don't think its anything more complicated than some whale has a boatload of xmr and they want to cashout to fiat. Currently the only process is to go from xmr -> btc -> fiat, because at he/she/its level of holdings, an OTC trade probably wouldn't be wise ("oh yeah here's my 10k USD paypal transaction doop dee doo"). The value of all cryptocurrencies are linked to btc value, so this could be someone just seizing the opportunity to cash out of cryptocurrency while the gettings good. To do so at maximum value requires using a bot due to the liquidity of xmr. I'd say this is backed by the fact that this action has been going on since btc started its multimonth rise.

I think not, he is too aggressive to suppress the price when it tries to bounce.

[bitcoinvest]

not a long time ago i had some opinions here about xmr going up by some users after about follow what we have today.
based on that i decided to sell at this point by my feeling and i got win as i get more that i would get if sell now.

this is just for the history...

my point and my question is if anyone knows if and when will have graphical interface?

[dEBRUYNE]

I've been watching XMR price closely for more than a year now.

Someone is selling aggressively XMR (profoundly a whale) to break the price and buy back lower. Unless it is a hacker/thief who had laundered the BTC to XMR and now does the opposite (I don't think this is the case because the selling is aggressive but very careful, done from a serious trader).

I hope he does not use leverage  

I've been observing this as well. He/she/it also has a pretty sophisticated bot, that constantly places random asks etc. In addition, he nearly always places a group of small asks (mostly something like 150-250-300) near the price and some bigger random asks (1-4k) a bit further away. His "manipulation" is quite salient. This behavior started after that massive (shortsale) dump until 0.0013, when basically all the loan offers were taken out (not immediately by the way). I've also seen this bot in a sort of reverse mode, but it mainly supresses the prices currently (like Klee pointed out).

I don't think its anything more complicated than some whale has a boatload of xmr and they want to cashout to fiat. Currently the only process is to go from xmr -> btc -> fiat, because at he/she/its level of holdings, an OTC trade probably wouldn't be wise ("oh yeah here's my 10k USD paypal transaction doop dee doo"). The value of all cryptocurrencies are linked to btc value, so this could be someone just seizing the opportunity to cash out of cryptocurrency while the gettings good. To do so at maximum value requires using a bot due to the liquidity of xmr. I'd say this is backed by the fact that this action has been going on since btc started its multimonth rise.

I think not, he is too aggressive to suppress the price when it tries to bounce.

Agree with Klee here. Also, if he wanted the best price he wouldn't push it this aggressively. He would cash out in a more elegant manner. Also, I think he is not only running a bot, but also occasionally market dumping like Klee pointed out before.

[medusa13]

yes i agree with those observations. this is allready going on for a long time, the sell presure is real. but its allready cheap, so i dont know how long this can go on. if the bottom is not here it will be somewhere lower
maybe placing bid walls would be a better tactic, instead many people market buy when there is enough to bite into

still never underestimate the greed of the comunity too, they let it happen is my feeling, or maybe some reached allready their goal and stopped accumulating. many different sharks here

[olcaytu2005]

 Hey guys these are your dogs??

AdamWhite

TheDasher

ICEBREAKER

YOURMOTHER

Dnaleor

smoothie

Smooth?

Please put a leash on these dog. Thank you.

[smooth]

Off topic, but you will get one warning. Next time will just be deleted. Please review the topic for this thread:

discussion of Monero trading and price speculation.

EDIT: one further off topic post from the same individual deleted. olcaytu2005, this thread is about Monero trading and price speculation, it is not about general discussion of anything and anyone related to Monero.

EDIT 2: One reply by Hueristic deleted, even though it was funny. Personally I was going to invoke the humor exception and leave it until he forced the issue by baiting the No Red Rule

[klee]

I've been watching XMR price closely for more than a year now.

Someone is selling aggressively XMR (profoundly a whale) to break the price and buy back lower. Unless it is a hacker/thief who had laundered the BTC to XMR and now does the opposite (I don't think this is the case because the selling is aggressive but very careful, done from a serious trader).

I hope he does not use leverage  

I've been observing this as well. He/she/it also has a pretty sophisticated bot, that constantly places random asks etc. In addition, he nearly always places a group of small asks (mostly something like 150-250-300) near the price and some bigger random asks (1-4k) a bit further away. His "manipulation" is quite salient. This behavior started after that massive (shortsale) dump until 0.0013, when basically all the loan offers were taken out (not immediately by the way). I've also seen this bot in a sort of reverse mode, but it mainly supresses the prices currently (like Klee pointed out).

I don't think its anything more complicated than some whale has a boatload of xmr and they want to cashout to fiat. Currently the only process is to go from xmr -> btc -> fiat, because at he/she/its level of holdings, an OTC trade probably wouldn't be wise ("oh yeah here's my 10k USD paypal transaction doop dee doo"). The value of all cryptocurrencies are linked to btc value, so this could be someone just seizing the opportunity to cash out of cryptocurrency while the gettings good. To do so at maximum value requires using a bot due to the liquidity of xmr. I'd say this is backed by the fact that this action has been going on since btc started its multimonth rise.

I think not, he is too aggressive to suppress the price when it tries to bounce.

Agree with Klee here. Also, if he wanted the best price he wouldn't push it this aggressively. He would cash out in a more elegant manner. Also, I think he is not only running a bot, but also occasionally market dumping like Klee pointed out before.

Huge news for ETH - http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/10/28/bitbeat-microsoft-to-offer-ethereum-based-services-on-azure/

Maybe they were dumping to get in ETH!

[dEBRUYNE]

I've been watching XMR price closely for more than a year now.

Someone is selling aggressively XMR (profoundly a whale) to break the price and buy back lower. Unless it is a hacker/thief who had laundered the BTC to XMR and now does the opposite (I don't think this is the case because the selling is aggressive but very careful, done from a serious trader).

I hope he does not use leverage  

I've been observing this as well. He/she/it also has a pretty sophisticated bot, that constantly places random asks etc. In addition, he nearly always places a group of small asks (mostly something like 150-250-300) near the price and some bigger random asks (1-4k) a bit further away. His "manipulation" is quite salient. This behavior started after that massive (shortsale) dump until 0.0013, when basically all the loan offers were taken out (not immediately by the way). I've also seen this bot in a sort of reverse mode, but it mainly supresses the prices currently (like Klee pointed out).

I don't think its anything more complicated than some whale has a boatload of xmr and they want to cashout to fiat. Currently the only process is to go from xmr -> btc -> fiat, because at he/she/its level of holdings, an OTC trade probably wouldn't be wise ("oh yeah here's my 10k USD paypal transaction doop dee doo"). The value of all cryptocurrencies are linked to btc value, so this could be someone just seizing the opportunity to cash out of cryptocurrency while the gettings good. To do so at maximum value requires using a bot due to the liquidity of xmr. I'd say this is backed by the fact that this action has been going on since btc started its multimonth rise.

I think not, he is too aggressive to suppress the price when it tries to bounce.

Agree with Klee here. Also, if he wanted the best price he wouldn't push it this aggressively. He would cash out in a more elegant manner. Also, I think he is not only running a bot, but also occasionally market dumping like Klee pointed out before.

Huge news for ETH - http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/10/28/bitbeat-microsoft-to-offer-ethereum-based-services-on-azure/

Maybe they were dumping to get in ETH!

Yeah just read that, could be, but the fact that he still uses a lot of XMR to supress tells me this isn't very likely. Also, the ETH rise already started a few days ago, so probably a few insiders buying already.

[smooth]

Second off topic reply by olcaytu2005 deleted. olcaytu2005, you are welcome to join the discussion on topic. If you don't wish to do that this is your last warning that you will be banned from this thread

[olcaytu2005]

 Monero price reduction. I hope this is about Monero Price Speculation

[dEBRUYNE]

not a long time ago i had some opinions here about xmr going up by some users after about follow what we have today.
based on that i decided to sell at this point by my feeling and i got win as i get more that i would get if sell now.

this is just for the history...

my point and my question is if anyone knows if and when will have graphical interface?

Don't really understand your first part, but I answered the 2nd part yesterday. See -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg12803075#msg12803075

[jehst]

not a long time ago i had some opinions here about xmr going up by some users after about follow what we have today.
based on that i decided to sell at this point by my feeling and i got win as i get more that i would get if sell now.

this is just for the history...

my point and my question is if anyone knows if and when will have graphical interface?

Don't really understand your first part, but I answered the 2nd part yesterday. See -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg12803075#msg12803075

He's talking about the aggressive bearwhale. He's decided to sell because of that.