[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TheKoziTwo]

I was asked to run a script for this topic like I did in the monero main thread.

There has been a total of 501 unique users participating in Monero Speculation (530 pages).

Rank	Total users
Sr.Member	114
Hero_Member	112
Full_Member	74
Member	60
Newbie	56
Jr.Member	43
Legendary	35
Staff	4
Donator	3
Total_unique_users	501

A list of top 30 posters here:

Username	Post Count	Rank	Activity
smooth	798	Hero Member	854
TrueCryptonaire	679	Sr. Member	392
rpietila	484	Donator	0
dEBRUYNE	370	Sr. Member	476
jehst	289	Hero Member	504
ArticMine	264	Legendary	1400
Hueristic	255	Hero Member	700
americanpegasus	248	Sr. Member	294
GingerAle	212	Sr. Member	350
aminorex	197	Hero Member	798
medusa13	186	Hero Member	523
iCEBREAKER	184	Legendary	1106
smoothie	179	Legendary	1442
Anon136	148	Legendary	1120
nioc	145	Legendary	910
owm123	145	Member	84
generalizethis	138	Sr. Member	434
kazuki49	134	Sr. Member	322
dreamspark	133	Hero Member	518
dnaleor	130	Legendary	924
wpalczynski	129	Hero Member	546
binaryFate	122	Hero Member	938
hodlmybtc	114	Hero Member	574
rangedriver	102	Sr. Member	401
cAPSLOCK	96	Legendary	1008
saddambitcoin	95	Legendary	1008
mrkavasaki	87	Sr. Member	462
luigi1111	83	Hero Member	644
rdnkjdi	83	Hero Member	504
opennux	81	Full Member	154

[smooth]

So in the end, I think emission has basically been a nonfactor over the past year.

I've always believed that "more inflation now <=> less inflation later". One side of this equivalence is a negative pricing factor, the other is a positive. Therefore as long as the emission curve isn't grossly defective, the specific curve doesn't matter that much.

This doesn't show that Monero's (or any coin's) emission isn't grossly defective but small changes like doubling or halving it probably wouldn't change that.

[Gabri]

It’s still very disappointing to see Monero’s price very cheap (due to loss of profit) but at the same time it could be good news as this makes an advantage to invest early on XMR for the next increase in price. I have the sense that next year will be a very good year for Monero. Just wait and see.   

[Bassica]

Bid side is shaping up decently. Reversal in the making here? Lil' slingshot would be nice.

[SmoothCurves]

What's the current inflation rate of Monero? When does it drop below 4%?

[olcaytu2005]

What's the current inflation rate of Monero? When does it drop below 4%?

Never.

[SmoothCurves]

What's the current inflation rate of Monero? When does it drop below 4%?

Never.

Let's change that 12%

[smooth]

What's the current inflation rate of Monero? When does it drop below 4%?

Never.

Show your work

[digicoin]

What's the current inflation rate of Monero? When does it drop below 4%?

(8.2 * 60 * 24 * 365/18400000) * 100 = 23.4 % (per year) and declining

[smooth]

Normally the "rate" is relative to the current supply so it is twice that. Won't be below 4% for a while.

[digicoin]

I am not worried about inflation rate at the moment. I am concerning about user adoption rate over time. Artificial high exchange rate for bitcoin + low user base is the easiest way to kill a cryptocurrency

[rpietila]

I've always believed that "more inflation now <=> less inflation later".

Yes, it is correct. What the community refused to believe a year ago, and seemingly still do, is that both are harmful.

Now we don't need much inflation as the coin is small and inflation does not benefit anyone (including the usual but completely incorrect claim that it "distributes the coins" which can only happen if the community grows, and can be witnessed in marketcap growth). Later we would need more inflation to show that the coin is not a pyramid game but that the monetary base is growing as newcomers enter in.

[nioc]

What's the current inflation rate of Monero? When does it drop below 4%?

Never.

Let's change that 12%

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.msg8106443#msg8106443

Risto's emission #s followed by IntroVert adding daily inflation and rewards #s

[smooth]

I've always believed that "more inflation now <=> less inflation later".

Yes, it is correct. What the community refused to believe a year ago, and seemingly still do, is that both are harmful.

Now we don't need much inflation as the coin is small and inflation does not benefit anyone (including the usual but completely incorrect claim that it "distributes the coins" which can only happen if the community grows, and can be witnessed in marketcap growth). Later we would need more inflation to show that the coin is not a pyramid game but that the monetary base is growing as newcomers enter in.

Seems unlikely to me that a 2x (or 3x or whatever) time factor would make much difference, as I said earlier. In five years there will still be coins created. Would it matter if there were somewhat more coins being created? I don't really see it. How do we even know that five years is the right time window? Or how much inflation will be needed to accommodate newcomers (i.e. how many newcomers there would be and when they will arrive). Maybe it is 3, maybe it is 20.

It all seems like guesswork to me. I remain unconvinced that any fixed schedule defined in advance, within some broad boundaries, is significantly different from any other.

[jehst]

The perception thing was a lose-lose game. If we changed the emission then, it would've looked bad. So we left it alone. But that will look bad in a few years from now when newcomers look back. But think about it: most people really don't know how money is created. They don't study the history and origin of the money they use. They just use it. If Monero is the same way, then the perception of the emission won't matter in a few years from now. People will just use it if they find it useful. People don't care about the origins of USD when they earn it today and spend it tomorrow.

I truly think it won't matter. The success of XMR won't hinge on the emission.

[nioc]

Bid side is shaping up decently. Reversal in the making here? Lil' slingshot would be nice.

Just when our #2 poster comes back from a hiatus

[luigi1111]

What's the current inflation rate of Monero? When does it drop below 4%?

(8.2 * 60 * 24 * 365/18400000) * 100 = 23.4 % (per year) and declining

4% / 365 = ~0.01096% / day.

Spreadsheet says that should happen on 2019-06-29. Indeed, a ways off.

Note that current daily inflation is ~0.11942%, which *would* equal ~43.6% yearly, but the reward declines every block. So it's effectively less. In fact, my 4% calculation will end up being less as well.

Which means, we need to find the day when supply divided by supply 1 year later equals less than 1.04. *goes to look*

Edit: other way around....supply 1 year from date divided by current supply.

Edit2: found it: 2019-01-20, first day when supply 365 days later is less than 4% higher.

Edit3: extra credit. Instead of ~43.6%, we are now at ~31.7% yearly inflation due to declining supply. I should do something useful. -_-

[cryptoadoption15]

I am not worried about inflation rate at the moment. I am concerning about user adoption rate over time. Artificial high exchange rate for bitcoin + low user base is the easiest way to kill a cryptocurrency

The solution to this is to tell more people about Monero. Some of you are probably doing this but I have a feeling some of you do nothing besides posting in this forum where everyone is already aware of Monero!

If you want Monero to become the greatest currency in the world do something every day to make sure it happens!

[opennux]

I am lamenting the emission cut did not pass a year ago. Currently we just get loads and loads of cheap XMR on top of what we have, and when the value is realized in the wider audience, it feels almost as bad as a premine, with great concentrations of coin in the hands of people who already were rich and smart and forward-looking.

The intention is not to punish from such qualities, but now the reward is so excessive it makes me blush  

"Equal opportunity" loses some of its allure when nobody is using it (and then complain afterwards, same as with BTC)

I beg to disagree here. People overestimate how high the emission rate actually is. Furthermore, changing the emission rate would have broken the social contract and would probably look way more sketchy from the outside than the fast emission rate. I also agree with wachtwoord on this matter.

Well, we all agree with the argument about breaking the social contract and eventually reached 100% consensus on the matter. But we can still feel sad about the things we can't change.

In keeping with my post above, I believe the emission is important sometimes and unimportant at other times. But if we look at different altcoins with varying inflation, it does not seem that supply inflation of coins has been significant in recent history:

By the end of 2015, LTC's supply inflation will be about 33%. Dogecoin's supply inflation for 2015 will be about 5.26%. Monero's supply inflation in 2015 will be even higher than Litecoin's. Peercoin's supply inflation for 2015 is slightly lower than Dogecoin's. This is a huge range. But when we look at the LTC, XMR, PPC, and DOGE charts, do we really see much of a difference?

Larger macroeconomic effects (namely, an extended post-bubble bear market) has hammered all the altcoins into the ground regardless of their individual supply inflation schedules. So in the end, I think emission has basically been a nonfactor over the past year.

Let's crunch some estimate numbers just for fun.

Monero has been alive for roughly 550 days and has a supply of 9.8m XMR - and a total market cap of 4.4m$
When Bitcoin was 550 days old (roughly) it had a supply of roughly 4m BTC and a total market cap of 300kusd. The price at that time was 0.08$ (after a moons-shot).
If BTC had the same price as XMR around 550 days we would be looking at more than a magnitude more than it was. Around 0.9usd$ - correlated for total emission).

So all we have to do and it is very easy is to extrapolate those numbers into the future. BTC had its biggest bubble after 4 years and 11 months with supply being around 12mio and price peaking around 1100. That means comparing the 4 years and 11 months in XMR the date is early 2019, where the supply is 17mio. Thusly - a price of 800$/XMR in early 2019.

But wuuuaaaiiitt.....wait a little - it was shown before that xmr prices were a magnitude above btc prices compared with time. So that's 8000$/XMR in 2019.

Heck. why not just make it 10,000$ in 2019. That's an even number.

There you go that was easy. Speculation indeed.

[opennux]

And the above is supported by the fact that after roughly 550 days Monero has roughly a magnitude more members doing commits!

You can all sign up for my newsletter, for 1 xmr. The first edition will be sent out in 2019.