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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3199740 times)
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rikkejohn
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August 28, 2014, 11:25:39 PM
 #161

What's the pontentil of this coin? price predictions in dollar per coin after 1 year?

I see $10-20/coin as easily possible. I'm not saying likely necessarily, but possible. That puts it in the range of LTC.

If there is a big increase in BTC then it could go much higher.




In depth breakdown which I will have to read later to make sure I did not miss anything.

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August 28, 2014, 11:27:21 PM
 #162

What's the pontentil of this coin? price predictions in dollar per coin after 1 year?

I predict XMR prices will trend logarithmically against BTC, just as BTC hyperdeflates vs fiat.

After 1 year, 0.01 BTC.  After two years, 0.1.  XMR/BTC parity in 3 years.

In dollar terms, XMR should be $100 in a year assuming BTC goes to $10k.

Such is the power of Gresham's Law!   Cool



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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
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"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
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August 28, 2014, 11:37:19 PM
 #163

What's the pontentil of this coin? price predictions in dollar per coin after 1 year?

I predict XMR prices will trend logarithmically against BTC, just as BTC hyperdeflates vs fiat.

After 1 year, 0.01 BTC.  After two years, 0.1.  XMR/BTC parity in 3 years.

In dollar terms, XMR should be $100 in a year assuming BTC goes to $10k.

Such is the power of Gresham's Law!   Cool



Why this coin is better then all others altcoin?

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August 28, 2014, 11:48:08 PM
 #164

Development,  Cryptonote and consensus

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August 28, 2014, 11:48:34 PM
 #165

Quote

Why this coin is better then all others altcoin?




Because it is as anonymous as it gets with brilliant tech which isnt vaporware. And because it doesnt have a premine/ninjamine. It also has many devs and more people well known or not are getting interested by the day.

Now of course speculating that it will ever reach 100$ is a bit far for me. I believe in the next months it will hit 10$ in a bubble or not.
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August 29, 2014, 12:09:32 AM
 #166

Quote
Why this coin is better then all others altcoin?

Because it is as anonymous as it gets with brilliant tech which isnt vaporware. And because it doesnt have a premine/ninjamine. It also has many devs and more people well known or not are getting interested by the day.

Now of course speculating that it will ever reach 100$ is a bit far for me. I believe in the next months it will hit 10$ in a bubble or not.

Another feature is XMR's hefty trade volume.  Liquidity is crucial to attract whales.  They don't like getting beached on a coin with no active market.


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
P2P Exchange Network
Buy XMR with fiat
Is Dash a scam?
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August 29, 2014, 12:14:25 AM
 #167

What's the pontentil of this coin? price predictions in dollar per coin after 1 year?

I see $10-20/coin as easily possible. I'm not saying likely necessarily, but possible. That puts it in the range of LTC.

If there is a big increase in BTC then it could go much higher.




In depth breakdown which I will have to read later to make sure I did not miss anything.

Sound out the words. You'll get through it.
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August 29, 2014, 01:01:54 AM
 #168

This is a cross post of some alt indexes I've been tracking for about a month:


Amazing recovery continues...furthermore there are now some pretty significant divergences that separate the players from the also-rans.  Just my humble opinion, but this kind of market movement illustrates the value of indexing and the need for the resource in toolbox of anybody interested in alts.

Index 1: 105.57
Index 2: 128.54 (again, does not include BTC or LTC, but it does include all other currencies on coinmarketcap.  LTC has recovered from its recent depths, but still well below where it was early in August)
Index 3: 125.07 (I continue to believe that this one most closely approximates the alt market in the truest sense....it contains 31 alts selected by price/volume combination and re-balanced bi-weekly.  No BTC or LTC.  Cap weighted.  Give me a few months and I may very well offer an open-ended mutual fund type investment in this "basket" of alts!)
Index 4: 102.78 (LTC drags this back down a bit, but still over the August 4th level)
Index 5: 92.53
Index 6:  88.10
Meta index: 107.01

Remember, these indexes were largely in the 50's and 60's just 11 days ago when alts were taking a serious beating.  

XMR has seen a 46% growth in market cap in around 10 days, handily outperforming the index.  BTSX and Ripple are both larger cap and have seen even more (a lot more, in fact) cap growth than Monero, but no doubt that the action in Monero is incredibly strong.  

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August 29, 2014, 01:16:07 AM
 #169

What's the pontentil of this coin? price predictions in dollar per coin after 1 year?

I see $10-20/coin as easily possible. I'm not saying likely necessarily, but possible. That puts it in the range of LTC.

If there is a big increase in BTC then it could go much higher.




let's look at the numbers

LTC total supply: 84 million
XMR total supply: 18 million

LTC current exchange rate: 5.25 USD
=> Total fully mined market cap op LTC = 441 M USD

To be "in the range" of LTC, 1 XMR needs to be 441 M USD/18 M = 24.5 USD

At the top, 1 LTC was around 50 USD => possible bubble top for XMR is 250 USD  Grin

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August 29, 2014, 01:28:00 AM
 #170


If there is a big increase in BTC then it could go much higher.


I see an inverse relationship in the near term between BTC and XMR especially during BTC downtrends. XMR might benefit far more from a BTC crash than a BTC rally.
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August 29, 2014, 01:33:36 AM
 #171

...

At the top, 1 LTC was around 50 USD => possible bubble top for XMR is 250 USD  Grin

Yes, but this is based on a XBT bubble top only in the 1100 - 1300 USD range.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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August 29, 2014, 02:49:57 AM
 #172

Hash rate increasing since 20th of august:
http://monerochain.info/charts/hashrate

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August 29, 2014, 03:08:10 AM
 #173

Hash rate increasing since 20th of august:
http://monerochain.info/charts/hashrate

with normal volatility, typical of hash rates, it has been increasing a remarkably steady .25 mh/diem, currently about 1% daily.
i would compare this to the bitcoin epoch from october 2011 to march 2013, when users, price and hash rate were increasing roughly linearly.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 29, 2014, 03:26:58 AM
 #174

This report came out and price is breaking 0.0042 resistance it seems
http://da-data.blogspot.com.es/2014/08/minting-money-with-monero-and-cpu.html


lol and he did not keep a 0.0000001 XMR. I am sure he will forbid that someone shoot a movie of this, since in 2 years time he will realize what he did.

He must have enough money that it does not matter, he does not want to assume any risk whatsoever.

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August 29, 2014, 06:23:06 AM
 #175

He must have enough money that it does not matter, he does not want to assume any risk whatsoever.

The risk of not holding monero is infinitely bigger than that of holding it.

With not holding, you can lose a sum equal to 1000x your net worth.

With holding, you can maximum lose the amount invested.
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August 29, 2014, 07:09:17 AM
 #176

Glad i loaded up at the recent 0030 bottom.  Grin

Should be decent resistance at 0058, coming up shortly. Specs will be specs, but it's way too early in the game to be selling imo. MRO's got a bright future.

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August 29, 2014, 07:54:20 AM
 #177

Monero > 4.5 mBTC!



CCMF!

Somebody had to be the first   Grin

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August 29, 2014, 08:12:54 AM
 #178

Monero > 4.5 mBTC!

CCMF!

Somebody had to be the first   Grin

So when the time comes this thread turn into XMR Wall Observer and compete with Adam's thread. I as a Monero HODLer am patiently waiting more adoption and big bubbles like Bitcoin does.
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August 29, 2014, 09:04:37 AM
 #179

If we consider the zones where a large number of coins have traded as resistance zones (going upward), the by far largest one is in between 250-450. 60%+ of all trade ever has been conducted in this zone.

We have now hit the upper end of the zone. It is too early to say if the breakout will succeed - I actually give it less than 50% chances for today. But same as the infamous 420 level that was tried for 5 times, it finally fell (only in a few days), same will happen with this one, if the trend stays in force.

When 450 falls convincingly, the trade density drops to 1/3, which should mean that it takes approximately 1/3 of the time to advance from 450->550, compared to what it took from 350->450.

At 580 there is the strong resistance of the previous top. After clearing it, there is not much on our way.

The ATH double-top in 0.01-0.011 will in my opinion NOT serve as a STRONG resistance, due to the small amount of coins traded there last times, and the completely different fundamentals now (both adoption and number of coins have multiplied since then).

Take advantage of the 2x-2.5x leverage offered by options (calculated as %change of option price / %change of XMR price).

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August 29, 2014, 09:26:40 AM
Last edit: August 29, 2014, 05:22:32 PM by smooth
 #180

Quote
So when the time comes this thread turn into XMR Wall Observer and compete with Adam's thread. I as a Monero HODLer am patiently waiting more adoption and big bubbles like Bitcoin does.

a wall observer would actually be pretty nice, but i dont know if its time yet. a place where we post a lot of charts, talk about walls and price movement in a quick and dirty way.
like we do on poloniex trollbox, just with more pics (of rockets and trains)

Price charts and discussion of price movements are definitely welcome here. I have only asked that large charts not be repeatedly quoted.

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